2 025年，新能源重卡在传统销售淡季的7月份和8月份同比分别暴涨了185%和169%，其 中7月份创造了史上最高月销量纪录。 淡季都如此之旺，进入真正的销售旺季呢？ 当然是更火爆了。 请看第一商用车网带来的新能源重卡市场观察。 解放/徐工/三一超3000辆争冠，联合重卡暴涨9.5倍 根据北斗入网新增统计，2025年9月份，有13家企业新能源重卡销量超百辆，其中有11家 企业销量超过300辆，月销量破千的企业都有7家（与上月持平）。排名前三位的企业销量 均超过3000辆，解放斩获月榜销冠，销量达到3832辆；排名月榜第2、3位的徐工、三一 销量分别达到3492辆和3171辆；排名月榜4、5位的重汽和陕汽销量也双双超过2000辆， 分别达到2444辆和2355辆；福田和东风排名月榜第6、7位，分别销售1830辆和1243 辆；远程销售943辆排名第8位；联合重卡和江淮分列9、10位，9月份分别销售412辆和 366辆。 9月新能源重卡新增2.16万辆，同比大涨252% 根据第一商用车网掌握的最新数据，2025年9月份，全国共新增新能源重卡2.16万辆（本 文数据来源为重型货车北斗营运证入网销量口径，非交强险销量 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the increasing competition in the new energy heavy truck market, highlighting the importance of core components, particularly the electric drive axle, in determining the performance and efficiency of these vehicles [1]. Group 1: Electric Drive Axle Products - Dongfeng Dana EP35D electric drive axle features a highly integrated design that reduces weight significantly while achieving system efficiency over 94% [5][6]. - The HanDe HDE11.5t electric drive axle supports an 800V high-voltage system, improving charging efficiency compared to traditional 500V platforms, and enhances efficiency by 2%-6% over competitors [7][9]. - The Fastec Blue Chariot FS2EA500 electric drive axle is designed for medium and heavy trucks, offering a maximum output power of 700 kW and a torque of 50,000 Nm, ensuring performance in heavy load conditions [10][13]. - The FAW Jiefang integrated electric drive axle outputs a torque of 30,000 Nm, achieving a 3.7% efficiency improvement and a B10 lifespan of 1 million kilometers [14][16]. - The China National Heavy Duty Truck MCE12ZQ electric drive axle features a "dual-machine dual-link" design, achieving over 94.5% system efficiency and allowing for automatic adjustment of gear ratios based on load conditions [17][19]. - The TeBaJia KEA210-3S40K electric drive axle is adaptable for various scenarios, with a rated/peak power of 210/310 kW and a maximum output torque exceeding 50,000 Nm, catering to diverse operational needs [20][23]. Group 2: Market Trends and User Considerations - The demand for electric heavy trucks is expected to surge post-2025, making the choice of electric drive axle brands and models a critical factor for users during the purchasing process [23].

Core Insights - The commercial vehicle sector experienced a 0.81% increase on September 30, with Dongfeng Motor leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3882.78, up 0.52%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13526.51, up 0.35% [1] Commercial Vehicle Sector Performance - Dongfeng Motor (600006) closed at 8.06, with a rise of 6.05% and a trading volume of 1.23 million shares, amounting to a transaction value of 972 million [1] - Other notable performers included: - Zhongjun Vehicles (301039) at 9.61, up 1.69% [1] - Shuguang Co. (600303) at 3.91, up 1.56% [1] - Jianghuai Automobile (600418) at 53.90, up 1.51% [1] - The sector saw a net inflow of 248 million in main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 206 million [3][4] Fund Flow Analysis - Main funds showed significant net inflows in several companies: - Dongfeng Motor: 218 million, accounting for 22.41% of the total [4] - Yutong Bus (600066): 93.02 million, 17.44% [4] - Jianghuai Automobile: 58.23 million, 1.77% [4] - Retail investors showed net outflows in various companies, with notable outflows from: - Yutong Bus: 6.89 million, -12.93% [4] - Jiangling Motors: 14.95 million, -11.50% [4] - China National Heavy Duty Truck (000951): 15.97 million, -9.42% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The sales of new energy heavy trucks in August 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 182%, reaching 17,800 units, with specific segments like new energy tractors and charging heavy trucks exceeding 200% growth [1][2]. Sales Performance - In August 2025, the domestic sales of new energy heavy trucks were 17,800 units, representing a month-on-month increase of 7% and a year-on-year increase of 182%. The sales of new energy dump trucks were 1,895 units, showing a month-on-month decline of 10% but a year-on-year increase of 113% [2][3]. - The market share of new energy dump trucks in the new energy heavy truck market was 10.67% in August, down from 12.57% the previous month. For the first eight months of the year, the market share was 12.55%, lower than the 16.03% share in 2024 and down over 7 percentage points compared to the same period last year [5][9]. Market Trends - The monthly sales data for new energy dump trucks from recent years indicates that the sales in January and February 2025 were significantly higher than previous years, while the sales from March to August were the highest in history for this segment [7]. - The overall heavy truck sales in August 2025 were 66,800 units, with dump trucks accounting for 4,252 units, a year-on-year increase of 44%. The market penetration of new energy in dump trucks has not fallen below 20% since August of the previous year [9]. Fuel Types and Distribution - The technology route for new energy dump trucks in 2025 is primarily pure electric, with 96.33% of the 14,300 new energy dump trucks registered being pure electric models. The distribution of these vehicles across provinces remains uneven, with the top six provinces accounting for over 50% of the total sales [11]. Competitive Landscape - The top three companies in the new energy dump truck market, XCMG, SANY, and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, have consistently led the monthly sales rankings. In August 2025, XCMG sold 365 units, followed by SANY with 351 units and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group with 336 units [14][18]. - The market share of new energy dump trucks for the top companies in the first eight months of 2025 shows XCMG leading with 22.83%, followed by SANY at 19.01% and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group at 18.37% [24]. Conclusion - The period from March to August 2025 marks the highest sales for new energy dump trucks to date, indicating a robust market. The competition among leading companies remains fierce, particularly between XCMG, SANY, and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, with potential for new entrants in the future [28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive industry [4][18]. Core Insights - The humanoid robot sector is gaining attention, particularly showcased at the 2025 Shanghai Industrial Expo, indicating a growing demand for innovative technologies [2][16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying high-cost performance technology routes similar to lithium iron phosphate batteries in the electric vehicle sector, and companies with inherent advantages like CATL [18][17]. - The domestic passenger car market is facing increased competition as the effects of vehicle replacement programs diminish, leading to a recommendation for companies that focus on differentiated competition [18][15]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Weekly Market Review - The automotive index remained flat over the past week, while the new energy vehicle index fell by 2%. The commercial vehicle index decreased by 3% [2][7]. - Over the past month, the automotive index increased by 5%, while the new energy vehicle index decreased by 2% [8][9]. 2. Investment Strategy and Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like Dechang Motor Holdings and Haoneng Co., which are positioned to benefit from the humanoid robot supply chain [18][19]. - It highlights the potential of companies like Great Wall Motors, SAIC Motor, and JAC Motors in the competitive passenger car market [18][19]. - Recommendations for the heavy truck market include China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, Foton Motor, and Weichai Power, which are expected to benefit from industry upgrades [18][19]. - In the automotive parts sector, companies like Nexteer Automotive and Asia-Pacific Holdings are recommended due to their growth potential [18][19]. 3. Passenger Car Weekly Sales - From September 1 to 21, 2025, retail sales of passenger cars reached 1.191 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1% [15]. - The retail penetration rate for new energy vehicles reached 58.5%, with cumulative retail sales of 8.267 million units this year, reflecting a 24% year-on-year growth [15][18]. 4. Humanoid Robots at the Expo - The report notes the participation of several humanoid robot manufacturers at the Shanghai Industrial Expo, showcasing advancements in robotics technology [16][17]. - Companies like Xynova Future are highlighted for their comprehensive production capabilities in the humanoid robot sector, indicating a trend towards innovation and cost efficiency [17][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - By 2035, new energy vehicles will become the mainstream of newly sold vehicles in China, with the net greenhouse gas emissions in the entire economic scope decreasing by 7%-10% from the peak, non-fossil energy consumption accounting for over 30% of the total energy consumption, and other goals to be achieved [1][109][118]. - The penetration rate of the Chinese new energy vehicle market exceeded 30% in 2023 and 50% in 2024. In 2025, high - competitiveness new car products are continuously launched, and price wars are gradually stopped. Overseas markets face trade protectionism in Europe and the United States, so attention should be paid to new growth points such as countries along the Belt and Road and the Middle East. The market share of independent brands continues to expand [3][120]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Tracking - The one - week price changes of related sectors and listed companies are presented in charts. For example, BYD's one - week price decline was 1.65%, while Seres' was 9.48% [12][15]. 3.2产业链数据跟踪 3.2.1 China New Energy Vehicle Market Tracking - **Sales and Exports**: Data on China's new energy vehicle sales, penetration rate, domestic sales, exports, and sales of EV and PHV are presented in charts [16][21][23]. - **Inventory Changes**: Charts show the monthly new additions to new energy passenger vehicle channel inventory and manufacturer inventory [24][25]. - **Delivery Volumes of Chinese New Energy Vehicle Enterprises**: Monthly delivery volumes of enterprises such as Leapmotor, Li Auto, XPeng, NIO, etc., are presented in charts [27][28][32]. 3.2.2 Global and Overseas New Energy Vehicle Market Tracking - **Global Market**: From January to July, global new energy vehicle sales reached 9.233 million, a year - on - year increase of 25.9%. Except for China, Europe and other regions also had significant growth, with year - on - year increases of 29.5% and 53.4% respectively [2]. - **European Market**: Data on European new energy vehicle sales, penetration rate, and sales of EV and PHV in countries like the UK, Germany, and France are presented in charts [44][50][55]. - **North American Market**: In August, US new energy vehicle sales and penetration rate reached record highs. Due to the expiration of the federal electric vehicle tax credit on September 30, high market enthusiasm is expected to continue in September, followed by a sharp decline. Data on North American new energy vehicle sales, penetration rate, and sales of EV and PHV are presented in charts [2][119]. - **Other Regions**: Data on new energy vehicle sales, penetration rate, and sales of EV and PHV in regions such as Japan, South Korea, and Thailand are presented in charts [62][70][72]. 3.2.3 Power Battery Industry Chain - Data on power battery installation volume, export volume, weekly average price of battery cells, material costs, and the operating rates and prices of various battery materials are presented in charts [79][81][85]. 3.2.4 Other Upstream Raw Materials - Data on the daily prices of rubber, glass, steel, and aluminum are presented in charts [102][103][104]. 3.3 Hot News Summaries 3.3.1 China: Policy Dynamics - By 2035, new energy vehicles will become the mainstream of newly sold vehicles in China. From 2026, export license management will be implemented for pure - electric passenger vehicles [109]. 3.3.2 China: Industry Dynamics - From September 1 - 21, new energy vehicle retail sales increased by 10% year - on - year, and cumulative retail sales since the beginning of the year increased by 24%. In the 38th week (September 15 - 21), new energy passenger vehicle retail sales were 299,000, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%, and cumulative retail sales since the beginning of the year were 8.214 million, a year - on - year increase of 23.0% [111][112][113]. 3.3.3 China: Enterprise Dynamics - Chery Automobile was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, raising HK$9.14 billion. Li Auto and Sunwoda Power jointly established a battery company [114]. 3.3.4 Overseas: Policy Dynamics - Australia announced a 2035 emission reduction target, aiming to reduce emissions by 62 - 70% compared to 2005. The US lowered the import tariff on EU cars to 15%, and Turkey imposed new tariffs on imported passenger cars [114][116][119]. 3.3.5 Overseas: Enterprise Dynamics - BYD's Brazilian factory obtained an international green certificate. Porsche adjusted its product strategy, slowing down electrification and lowering its 2025 performance expectations [117][118]. 3.4 Investment Advice - Pay attention to new growth points such as countries along the Belt and Road and the Middle East. Focus on enterprises with strong product capabilities, smooth overseas expansion, and stable supply [3][120].

Core Viewpoint - The commercial vehicle sector experienced a rise of 1.22% on September 29, with Hanma Technology leading the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3862.53, up 0.9%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13479.43, up 2.05% [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The commercial vehicle sector saw significant individual stock movements, with Hanma Technology closing at 8.05, up 5.23%, and a trading volume of 963,600 shares, amounting to 773 million yuan [1]. - Other notable performers included Zhongshun Vehicles, which rose 5.00% to 9.45, and Jianghuai Automobile, which increased by 2.85% to 53.10 [1]. - The overall trading volume for the commercial vehicle sector was substantial, with Jianghuai Automobile achieving a transaction value of 3.016 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Fund Flow Analysis - The commercial vehicle sector experienced a net inflow of 239 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 38.64 million yuan [3][4]. - Jianghuai Automobile attracted the highest net inflow from institutional investors at 185 million yuan, while Zhongshun Vehicles had a net inflow of 22.17 million yuan [4]. - Conversely, Yutong Bus faced a net outflow of 35.65 million yuan from retail investors, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [4].

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the Yuchai Beijing Marketing Center marks a significant step for Yuchai Group in enhancing its market presence and supporting its global strategy, aligning with national policies and industry trends [3][4]. Group 1: Functions of Yuchai Beijing Marketing Center - The center will serve four main functions: 1. Establishing a strategic platform to support Yuchai's global strategy with decision-making based on national policies and industry trends [3]. 2. Acting as a high-end customer service center to provide rapid and professional technical support to key clients in North China and nationwide [3]. 3. Serving as a brand image window to showcase Yuchai's technological strength and corporate image on an international stage [3]. 4. Functioning as a talent and resource hub to attract high-end talent and promote innovation in high-end, intelligent, and green development [3]. Group 2: Significance of the Marketing Center - The opening of the Beijing Marketing Center is seen as a vital move for Yuchai to deepen its domestic market engagement and expand its global market reach [4]. - The center is positioned to leverage Beijing's influence as a political, economic, cultural, and information center, thereby injecting new momentum into Yuchai's sustainable high-quality development [4]. Group 3: Industry Context - The establishment of the marketing center is viewed as a practical implementation of the industry's structural adjustment and a push towards high-quality development [3]. - The center aims to enhance industry chain collaboration and deepen international cooperation, contributing to the advancement of China's power equipment industry towards the high end of the global value chain [3].

Summary of Conference Call Notes on China Machinery: Trucks & Engines Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Heavy-Duty Trucks (HDT) and Engines in China - **Key Companies Discussed**: Weichai Power, Sinotruk Jinan Truck, Sinotruk-H Core Insights Domestic HDT Cycle - **2025 Sales Outlook**: Industry participants expect domestic HDT sales volume to be between 700k-800k units, up from previous estimates of 600k-700k units, driven by a stronger-than-expected equipment upgrade program [4][6][7] - **2026 Uncertainty**: There is uncertainty regarding demand in 2026, with expectations of flat or declining sales due to the diminishing impact of the equipment upgrade program [7][8] Near-Term Trends - **Strong Order Momentum**: OEMs reported strong order momentum in 3Q25, with retail sales volume more than doubling year-over-year in early September [6][8] - **Sales Projections for September**: Expected retail sales volume of 75-80k units (up 80%+ YoY) and wholesale volume exceeding 100k units (up 70%+ YoY) [6][8] Export Performance - **3Q25 Export Volume**: Sinotruk reported stronger-than-expected export volumes, with a monthly run-rate of ~13k units, primarily driven by demand from Africa and Southeast Asia [8][10] - **Full-Year Export Expectations**: Industry participants expect full-year HDT export volume to be in the range of 300-310k units [10] Powertrain Dynamics - **Shift Towards LNG and Electrification**: There is a notable comeback of LNG HDTs, with sales volume up +110% YoY in early September. Electrification is accelerating, but concerns remain regarding technology and business models [9][11] - **Electrification Projections**: eHDT penetration could reach 25-26% for the full year, with expectations of continued growth into 4Q25 [11] Competitive Landscape - **Intensified Competition**: Despite better-than-expected demand, competition among truck and engine OEMs has intensified, leading to price reductions and market share shifts [12][13] - **Market Share Changes**: Foton and Dongfeng gained market share, while FAW and Sinotruk lost shares, particularly in the LNG segment [12][13] Regulatory Developments - **China VII Emission Standard**: The draft policy for the China VII emission standard is expected by end-2025 or 1H26, with potential implications for pre-buying and phasing out older models [14] - **GB 1589 Amendment**: Discussions are ongoing regarding increasing the weight limit for eHDTs, which could enhance their economic returns [14] Financial Outlook Weichai Power - **Investment Thesis**: Positive outlook on cyclical recovery for HDTs, with expectations of stronger profitability and robust free cash flow [50][53] - **Valuation**: Target price set at HK$21.00/share, reflecting improving engine earnings prospects [54] Sinotruk - **Investment Thesis**: Concerns over accelerating truck electrification and its impact on competitive landscape and margins [56][57] - **Valuation**: Target price set at HK$20.00/share, reflecting expected margin deterioration due to electrification [60] Key Risks - **Macro Activity**: Slower-than-expected macro activity, particularly in road freight and infrastructure [55][61] - **Electrification Impact**: Risks associated with the shift to higher electrification penetration and lower LNG usage [55][61] Additional Insights - **Channel Inventory**: Healthy channel inventory observed, with sell-in and sell-through trends moving in tandem [6][22] - **LNG Price Dynamics**: Favorable LNG/diesel price spread expected to support LNG HDT sales, despite seasonal price volatility [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry [1] Core Views - The automotive industry is expected to benefit from the continuation of the vehicle replacement policy in 2025, supporting upward consumption trends. The industry is also experiencing a structural shift towards high-end and intelligent upgrades, which presents investment opportunities [18] Summary by Sections Recent Developments - Chery Automobile has successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, raising HKD 9.14 billion with a record oversubscription of 238 times. The company's revenue is projected to grow from CNY 92.618 billion in 2022 to CNY 269.899 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 70.7% [5][13] - The Ideal i6 was launched at a price of CNY 249,800, featuring advanced technology and performance specifications [14] - The Shangjie H5 was launched with a starting price of CNY 159,800, offering both electric and range-extended versions [15] - The all-new Wanjie M7 was launched with a price range of CNY 279,800 to CNY 379,800, providing multiple powertrain options [17] Market Performance - From September 22 to September 26, the automotive sector underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, with the automotive index remaining flat while the overall index rose by 0.2% [19] - The automotive sector's weekly trading volume decreased, indicating a potential decline in investor interest [19] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights several companies poised to benefit from the industry's transition to high-end and intelligent vehicles, including Ideal Auto, Jianghuai Automobile, Geely, BYD, and Great Wall Motors [18] - The report also identifies opportunities in high-level intelligent driving technologies, recommending companies like XPeng Motors and Huayang Group [18] - In the commercial vehicle sector, it anticipates a recovery in heavy truck demand in 2025, recommending leading companies such as Foton Motor and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group [18] Key Company and Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for several key companies, indicating a bullish outlook for firms like Yiyuan Co., Baolong Technology, and Xinyu Co. [8]