Core Insights - The industry consensus indicates a shift from an incremental expansion phase to a new cycle focused on deepening the value of existing assets, with competition evolving from price-based to providing comprehensive lifecycle value (TCO) [1][9] Industry Consensus: Three Deterministic Trends - The market is expected to enter a phase of "high-level consolidation and structural differentiation," with the medium and heavy truck market projected to remain stable at 1.1 to 1.25 million units, similar to 2025, as the driving force shifts from policy stimulus to optimizing existing resources [2][10] - Three major trends have emerged as strategic anchors for all companies: 1. Accelerated penetration of new energy vehicles (NEVs), with a consensus that the penetration rate will exceed 30% and potentially reach 35% or higher by 2026, driven by market demand rather than policy [3][11] 2. Value competition is replacing price wars, with a focus on service and ecosystem as key differentiators, emphasizing the importance of a comprehensive ecosystem that includes finance, used vehicles, and connectivity [3][11] 3. Globalization is becoming a core growth driver, with exports viewed as a crucial growth engine, as companies shift from simple trade to a more integrated approach involving products, technology, services, and finance [3][11] Strategic Differentiation: Paths of Eight Major Companies - Companies are adopting different strategic focuses based on their resources and capabilities: - China National Heavy Duty Truck Corporation aims to consolidate its leading position through a comprehensive transformation strategy [4][13] - FAW Jiefang focuses on accelerating overseas expansion and enhancing its core components [4][13] - Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle targets breakthroughs in new energy, globalization, and traditional energy markets [4][13] - Shaanxi Heavy Duty Truck emphasizes value creation through a diversified product lineup [4][13] - Foton Motor is pursuing a multi-faceted strategy focusing on internationalization and new energy [4][13] - Dongfeng Liuzhou Motor is leading in regional markets through ecosystem competition [4][13] - Weichai Power and Yunnei Power are adopting a pragmatic approach by diversifying their energy technology routes [6][14] Technology Routes: Diverse Approaches Based on Application Scenarios - The commercial vehicle power technology landscape is expected to be diverse, with choices heavily influenced by application scenarios: - Traditional power is evolving towards high-end and specialized applications, focusing on improving thermal efficiency and reducing fuel consumption [7][15] - Pure electric technology is becoming the preferred choice for short-distance fixed routes, with competition centered on battery energy density and lifecycle costs [7][15] - Hybrid and range-extended technologies are seen as key solutions for long-distance logistics, with significant R&D efforts underway [7][15] - Hydrogen fuel technology is being explored as a future strategic reserve, with ongoing commercial exploration [7][15] Ecosystem Construction: From Chain Leaders to Symbiosis - Leading companies are actively reshaping the industry ecosystem, moving beyond simple supplier relationships to create a community that shares risks and values: - China National Heavy Duty Truck Corporation leverages its capabilities for strong collaboration [8][16] - Dongfeng Liuzhou Motor is integrating upstream and downstream through the "Chenglong Ecosystem Alliance" [8][16] - Weichai Power is collaborating with multiple strategic partners to create a comprehensive service system [8][16] Observations: Coexistence of Consensus and Differentiation - The 2026 Chinese commercial vehicle market is characterized by both consensus on the shift to value-based competition and differentiation in strategic paths chosen by companies [9][17] - The upcoming competition will focus on technological depth, ecosystem breadth, and precision in user operations, with companies that effectively reduce operational costs and enhance efficiency poised to lead in this transformative phase [9][17]

Group 1 - The global refrigerated truck market is projected to grow steadily, reaching a size of $3.93 billion by 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 17.66% from previous years [1] - North America is the largest market for refrigerated trucks, accounting for approximately 40% of the global market share in 2024, followed by the Asia-Pacific region at 26.5% [3] - The light truck segment dominates the global refrigerated truck market, making up nearly 40% of the market share in 2024, while heavy trucks account for 31.7% and medium trucks for 29.2% [5] Group 2 - In 2024, global sales of new energy refrigerated transport vehicles are expected to reach 37,000 units, with Asia leading the market at approximately 25,000 units, representing 68% of the total [7] - The global refrigerated truck industry has a promising development outlook, with emerging markets in the Asia-Pacific region (especially China and India), Latin America, and the Middle East driving demand for fresh food and pharmaceutical cold chains, projected to reach $5.7 billion by 2030 [9]

Core Viewpoint - The heavy truck industry in China achieved significant growth in 2025, with total sales reaching 1.137 million units, marking a year-on-year increase of approximately 26% [1][19]. Group 1: Monthly Sales Performance - In December 2025, approximately 95,000 heavy trucks were sold, representing a month-on-month decline of about 16% but a year-on-year increase of around 13% compared to 84,200 units in December 2024 [1][3]. - The average growth rate for the heavy truck market from April to December 2025 was as high as 41%, indicating a strong upward trend throughout the year [1][3]. - The total sales for 2025 marked the highest level in the last four years, with a total of 1.137 million units sold [1]. Group 2: Export and Terminal Sales - Heavy truck exports in December 2025 are expected to increase by nearly 20%, with total exports for the year projected at around 330,000 units, setting a new historical record [5]. - Domestic terminal sales for heavy trucks in December are estimated to grow by about 11%, with total terminal sales for 2025 expected to approach 800,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of over 30% [5]. Group 3: New Energy and Gas Heavy Trucks - New energy heavy truck sales in December 2025 are projected to exceed 37,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of over 140%, with a monthly penetration rate nearing 50% [7]. - For the entire year, new energy heavy truck sales are expected to reach approximately 224,000 units, a year-on-year increase of over 170% [7]. - In contrast, gas heavy truck sales in December 2025 are expected to decline by nearly 40% month-on-month, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 26% [9]. Group 4: Major Players in the Market - China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (重汽) sold over 22,000 heavy trucks in December 2025, maintaining its position as the industry leader with a market share of approximately 26.7% [11]. - Dongfeng Motor Corporation (东风) sold about 19,000 heavy trucks in December, ranking second in the industry with a market share of around 16% [13]. - Foton Motor (福田) achieved the highest growth rate among major companies, with December sales increasing by approximately 113% year-on-year [15]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The heavy truck market in 2026 is expected to experience a slight domestic decline while maintaining steady growth in exports, influenced by the continuation of the old truck replacement policy [19].

Investment Highlights - The automotive industry is expected to see a recovery in passenger vehicle demand in Q1 2026 due to the implementation of subsidy policies, with a focus on high-end electric vehicles and established export-oriented companies [3][4][5][34] - The heavy truck sector benefits from a new policy that maintains subsidy levels, with expectations of 800,000 to 850,000 units sold domestically in 2026, reflecting a 3% year-on-year increase [4][29][38] - The bus sector anticipates a slight increase in sales to 40,000 units in 2026, supported by the continuation of subsidy policies [4][28][38] - The motorcycle market is projected to grow, with total industry sales expected to reach 19.38 million units in 2026, a 14% increase year-on-year, driven by strong export growth [5][35] Passenger Vehicle Sector - The implementation of subsidy policies is expected to convert pent-up demand into sales, with a focus on companies less sensitive to policy changes, such as Jianghuai Automobile and high-end brands like Geely and Great Wall [3][34] - The domestic market is expected to prioritize stability, while exports will focus on companies with proven execution capabilities, such as BYD and Changan [3][34] Heavy Truck Sector - The new policy for heavy trucks has exceeded expectations, maintaining subsidy levels from 2025, which is anticipated to accelerate the rollout compared to previous years [4][29][38] - The domestic sales forecast for heavy trucks in 2026 is optimistic, with expectations of 80,000 to 85,000 units sold, reflecting a 3% increase year-on-year [4][29][38] Bus Sector - The bus sector's subsidy policy has also exceeded expectations, with sales projected to reach 40,000 units in 2026, a 5% increase year-on-year [4][28][38] - The market anticipates a continued push for electric buses, supported by government incentives [28][38] Motorcycle Sector - The motorcycle market is expected to see significant growth, particularly in the large-displacement segment, with total sales projected at 1.26 million units in 2026, a 31% increase year-on-year [5][35] - Exports are expected to rise significantly, with a forecast of 830,000 units in 2026, reflecting a 50% increase [5][35] Overall Market Outlook - The overall automotive market is projected to grow, with total industry sales expected to reach 19.38 million units in 2026, a 14% increase year-on-year [5][35] - The heavy truck and motorcycle sectors are particularly well-positioned for growth due to favorable policy environments and increasing export opportunities [4][5][35]

Group 1 - The commercial vehicle sector increased by 1.07% on January 5, with Yutong Bus leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4023.42, up 1.38%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13828.63, up 2.24% [1] - Key stocks in the commercial vehicle sector showed varied performance, with notable increases in stocks like Zhitong Bus (up 2.57%) and Hanma Technology (up 1.87%) [1] Group 2 - The commercial vehicle sector experienced a net outflow of 225 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 158 million yuan [3][4] - Individual stock performances varied, with King Long Automobile seeing a significant net outflow from institutional investors of 38.81 million yuan [4] - The overall trading volume for the commercial vehicle sector was substantial, with Jianghuai Automobile recording a trading volume of 559,600 shares and a transaction value of 2.82 billion yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - In December 2025, the sales of new energy tractors in China reached a record high of 28,600 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 195% and a month-on-month increase of 45% [3][20]. Group 1: Market Performance - The total sales of new energy heavy trucks in December 2025 reached 34,500 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 191% [1]. - The new energy tractor market achieved a monthly sales record with a total of 28,600 units sold in December, which is approximately 2.95 times the sales of December 2024 [3][20]. - The year 2025 saw a cumulative sales figure of 158,300 units for new energy tractors, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 223% [12]. Group 2: Regional Insights - In December 2025, all 30 provincial-level administrative regions in China reported new sales of new energy tractors, with 26 regions adding over 100 units each [4]. - Shanghai led the sales with over 7,000 new energy tractors sold in December, followed by Shanxi with nearly 4,000 units [4][6]. Group 3: Company Performance - In December 2025, 12 companies sold over 100 new energy tractors, with 9 companies exceeding 1,000 units. XCMG topped the list with 4,222 units sold [8][9]. - The top three companies in cumulative sales for 2025 were Jiefang (25,400 units), XCMG (24,900 units), and SANY (22,200 units), all exceeding 20,000 units [12][14]. - The market share of the top five companies in 2025 was over 10%, with Jiefang at 16.0%, XCMG at 15.7%, and SANY at 14.1% [18].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [35]. Core Insights - The implementation of the vehicle trade-in policy in 2026 is expected to boost the industry's outlook, particularly for passenger vehicles, heavy trucks, and buses, with a focus on high-end electric vehicles and established export-oriented companies [2][26]. - The heavy truck segment is anticipated to see a sales volume of 800,000 to 850,000 units in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3% [30]. - The bus segment is projected to maintain growth, with an estimated sales volume of 40,000 units in 2026, a 5% increase year-on-year [30]. - The motorcycle industry is expected to achieve total sales of 19.38 million units in 2026, a 14% increase, with large-displacement motorcycles projected to grow by 31% [27]. Summary by Sections Passenger Vehicles - The short-term outlook is positive due to the new subsidy policies, with expectations for a recovery in demand in Q1 2026. Key companies to watch include Jianghuai Automobile, Geely, Great Wall Motors, and BYD [2][26]. - The 2026 subsidy budget is projected at 125 billion yuan, which could drive an additional sales increase of 780,000 to 1.54 million units [15]. Heavy Trucks - The 2026 trade-in policy for heavy trucks has exceeded expectations, with subsidies remaining at previous levels. The anticipated sales volume for 2026 is optimistic, with a target of 800,000 to 850,000 units [30][19]. - Recommended companies in this segment include China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, Weichai Power, and FAW Jiefang [30]. Buses - The bus segment's policy has also exceeded expectations, with a projected sales volume of 40,000 units in 2026, reflecting a 5% year-on-year increase [30][18]. - Key recommendations include Yutong Bus and King Long [30]. Motorcycles - The motorcycle industry is expected to see a total sales volume of 19.38 million units in 2026, with large-displacement motorcycles projected to grow significantly [27]. - Recommended companies include Chunfeng Power and Longxin General [27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the heavy-duty truck sector [7]. Core Insights - The 2026 vehicle replacement policy will support the replacement of old trucks with low-emission vehicles, prioritizing electric trucks, while maintaining the subsidy levels from 2025 [2][5]. - The heavy-duty truck sector is expected to benefit from continued domestic demand support and growth in exports, with a projected total sales volume of 1.06 million trucks in 2026, including 700,000 units from domestic demand [11]. - The report highlights the low valuation and high dividend yield of the heavy-duty truck sector, suggesting a favorable risk-reward profile for investors, with specific recommendations for Weichai Power and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group [11]. Summary by Sections Policy Impact - The 2026 policy will continue to support the replacement of old trucks, with subsidies for scrapping old vehicles ranging from 12,000 to 45,000 yuan per vehicle, and new purchases of National VI diesel and electric trucks receiving subsidies of 40,000 to 65,000 yuan and 70,000 to 95,000 yuan respectively [11]. - The expected replacement rate of 20% for old vehicles could lead to an increase of 94,000 to 96,000 heavy-duty truck sales in 2026 [11]. Market Trends - The report notes a significant trend towards higher battery capacities in new electric trucks, with 126 models exceeding 600 kWh, indicating a shift towards longer-distance applications [11]. - The penetration rate of new energy heavy-duty trucks is projected to reach 30% in 2026, supported by differentiated subsidy policies [11]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the potential for profitability recovery in the heavy-duty truck sector due to prior investments in new energy by domestic companies, alongside favorable market conditions [11]. - The overall low valuation and high dividend yield of the sector provide a good safety margin for investors, making it an attractive investment opportunity [11].

Core Insights - The electric motor market for new energy logistics vehicles is undergoing a significant transformation, with the market share of OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer) brands surpassing that of third-party brands for the first time [1][10] Group 1: Market Dynamics - From January to November 2025, the market structure has shifted, with OEM brands capturing 40.2% of the market share, while third-party brands dropped to 39.5% [4][12] - The top three companies in terms of installed electric motors in November 2025 are Huichuan United Power, Remote New Energy Commercial Vehicles, and Beiqi Foton, with respective shares of 22.8%, 18.0%, and 8.9% [2][11] - The overall installed capacity in November 2025 saw a decline compared to previous months, indicating volatility influenced by vehicle sales [1][10] Group 2: Company Performance - Huichuan United Power remains the leader in installed capacity with 123,017 units, despite a year-on-year decline of 7.7% [3][13] - Remote New Energy Commercial Vehicles and Beiqi Foton have shown impressive growth rates of 66.3% and 125.8% respectively, highlighting the strong performance of OEM brands [3][12] - Third-party brands like Wuhan University of Technology have experienced a significant decline, with a year-on-year drop of 46.8% [3][12] Group 3: Competitive Advantages - The growth of OEM brands is attributed to their ability to adapt technology to meet the increasing demands for long-range and heavy-load capabilities in the logistics sector [8][17] - OEMs benefit from vertical integration of the supply chain, allowing for collaborative development of the electric motor, battery, and control systems, which enhances performance and reduces costs [9][18] - Policy support and market positioning have enabled OEMs to quickly launch models equipped with self-developed motors, giving them a competitive edge over third-party brands [9][18] Group 4: Future Outlook - The market concentration in the electric motor sector is expected to increase, with OEM brands likely to maintain and expand their lead [10][18] - Third-party brands need to focus on technological innovation and deepen collaboration with OEMs to carve out competitive advantages in niche areas [10][18]

Core Insights - The new energy heavy truck market achieved record sales of 34,500 units in December 2025, surpassing the previous record set in November by over 10,000 units, marking a 44% month-on-month increase and a 191% year-on-year increase [4][25]. Monthly Sales Performance - In December 2025, the total sales of new energy heavy trucks reached 34,500 units, creating a new monthly sales record. This figure represents a significant increase of approximately 10,500 units compared to November and is 2.91 times higher than December 2024 [4][5]. - The average monthly sales for new energy heavy trucks in 2025 exceeded 16,000 units, with sales consistently surpassing 10,000 units from March to December [5]. Regional Sales Distribution - In December 2025, 30 provincial-level administrative regions reported new sales of new energy heavy trucks, with 19 regions adding over 500 units. Notably, Shanghai alone contributed over 7,000 units [7][9]. Annual Sales Overview - The total sales of new energy heavy trucks for the entire year of 2025 reached 195,600 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 190%. The top seven companies, including XCMG and SANY, each sold over 30,000 units [17][18]. - The cumulative sales figures for the leading companies in 2025 were as follows: XCMG at 31,200 units, SANY at 30,100 units, and several others exceeding 20,000 units [18][19]. Company Performance - In December 2025, the top five companies in terms of sales all exceeded 4,000 units, with XCMG leading at 4,967 units, followed closely by SANY and Jiefang [12][15]. - Year-on-year growth rates for the top ten companies in December were impressive, with several companies achieving over 200% growth, including Shaanxi Automobile and Heavy Truck [15][21]. Market Share Analysis - For the year 2025, the market share of the top five companies was significant, with XCMG holding 15.93%, SANY at 15.41%, and Jiefang at 14.78%. The competition among these companies remained tight throughout the year [23]. Conclusion - The new energy heavy truck market in 2025 demonstrated robust growth, with December sales marking a new high. The trend of doubling or even tripling sales figures has become a norm for leading companies, indicating a strong market outlook for 2026 [25].