Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Bullish" [2] Report's Core View - Currently at the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with fundamental and policy factors in resonance, it's a good time to allocate coal stocks on dips. The coal supply bottleneck is expected to last until the 15th Five - Year Plan. With the westward shift of coal layout and rising costs, coal prices are likely to remain high. The coal sector is a high - performance, high - cash, and high - dividend asset, and the team continues to be bullish on the coal sector and suggests investors focus on the allocation opportunities at the current stage [3][11][12] Summary by Directory I. This Week's Core View and Key Focus - **Core View**: In the current coal economic cycle, supply is tightening due to policies like "over - production inspection", and demand is expected to pick up with the "peak winter" approaching. Coal prices are expected to rise in a volatile manner. The underlying investment logic of coal capacity shortage remains unchanged, and coal stocks are of high cost - effectiveness. Suggest investors allocate on dips [3][11] - **Investment Suggestions**: Focus on stable companies like China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal Industry; oversold and high - elasticity companies like Yankuang Energy; and high - quality coking coal companies like Lu'an Environmental Energy. Also, pay attention to Huayang Co., Ltd., Yankuang Australia, etc. [3][12] - **Key Focus**: In the first three quarters, the national raw coal output was 3.57 billion tons, a 2.0% year - on - year increase. In September, the electricity consumption increased by 4.5% year - on - year. Australia's coal exports in the first three quarters of 2025 are expected to decline by 5.3% year - on - year [13] II. This Week's Performance of Coal Sector and Individual Stocks - The coal sector rose 1.46% this week, underperforming the broader market. The CSI 300 rose 3.24% to 4660.68. The top three performing sectors were communication, electronics, and machinery [14] - The thermal coal, coking coal, and coke sectors rose 1.68%, 0.89%, and 1.08% respectively [16] - The top three gainers in the coal mining and washing sector were Shanghai Energy (5.65%), Xinji Energy (4.72%), and Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co., Ltd. (3.83%) [19] III. Coal Price Tracking - **Coal Price Index**: As of October 24, the comprehensive transaction price of CCTD Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 691.0 yuan/ton, up 6.0 yuan/ton week - on - week. The comprehensive average price index of Bohai Rim thermal coal (Q5500K) was 684.0 yuan/ton, up 4.0 yuan/ton week - on - week. The annual long - term contract price of CCTD Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 676.0 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan/ton month - on - month [24] - **Thermal Coal Price**: At Qinhuangdao Port, the market price of Shanxi - produced thermal coal (Q5500) was 768 yuan/ton on October 25, up 28 yuan/ton week - on - week. In production areas, prices in Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Datong also increased. Internationally, some prices rose while others fell [30] - **Coking Coal Price**: At ports like Jingtang Port and Lianyungang, and in production areas like Linfen and Yanzhou, coking coal prices increased. The CIF price of Australian Peak Downs hard coking coal in China also rose [32] - **Anthracite and Pulverized Coal Price**: The car - loading price of Jiaozuo anthracite and the car - loading prices of pulverized coal in Changzhi and Yangquan increased [40] IV. Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - **Coal Mine Capacity Utilization**: As of October 24, the capacity utilization rate of sample thermal coal mines was 91%, down 0.7 percentage points week - on - week, and that of sample coking coal mines was 85.06%, down 2.3 percentage points week - on - week [45] - **Import Coal Price Difference**: As of October 24, the price difference of 5000 - kcal and 4000 - kcal thermal coal between domestic and international markets decreased [43] - **Coal - fired Power Consumption and Inventory**: Inland 17 provinces saw an increase in daily coal consumption and inventory, while coastal 8 provinces saw a decrease in daily consumption and an increase in inventory [46] - **Downstream Metallurgical Demand**: The Myspic composite steel price index rose, the price of Tangshan - produced primary metallurgical coke remained flat, the blast furnace operating rate increased, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises decreased, the profit per ton of steel for blast furnaces increased, the iron - scrap price difference increased, and the scrap consumption ratio of pure blast furnace enterprises increased [64][65] - **Downstream Chemical and Building Materials Demand**: The prices of urea in some regions changed, the national methanol price index fell, the national ethylene glycol price index rose, the national acetic acid price index fell, the national synthetic ammonia price index rose, the national cement price index fell, the weekly coal consumption in the chemical industry decreased, the cement clinker capacity utilization rate increased, and the float glass operating rate remained flat [68][72][74] V. Coal Inventory Situation - **Thermal Coal Inventory**: Qinhuangdao Port's coal inventory increased, the inventory of 55 ports' thermal coal decreased, and the inventory of sample mines' thermal coal decreased [88] - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The production area's coking coal inventory decreased, the port's coking coal inventory increased, the coking enterprises' coking coal inventory increased, and the steel mills' coking coal inventory decreased [89] - **Coke Inventory**: The coking enterprises' coke inventory decreased, the port's coke inventory increased, and the steel mills' coke inventory decreased [91] VI. Coal Transportation Situation - **International and Domestic Coal Transportation**: As of October 24, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1991.0 points, down 78.0 points week - on - week. The average daily coal shipment volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway this week was 100.2 tons, up 0.18 tons week - on - week [104] - **Cargo - to - Ship Ratio of Four Major Ports in the Bohai Rim**: As of October 24, the inventory of four major ports in the Bohai Rim was 1430.9 tons, down 22.10 tons week - on - week, the number of anchored ships was 100, up 8 week - on - week, and the cargo - to - ship ratio was 14.3, down 1.48 week - on - week [102] VII. Weather Situation - As of October 24, the Three Gorges outflow was 11900 cubic meters per second, up 19.36% week - on - week. In the next 10 days, there will be significant precipitation in many regions, and some areas will experience more precipitation than usual. In the long - term, there will also be precipitation in some regions, and the temperature in some areas will be higher or lower than normal [109] VIII. Valuation Table and Key Announcements of Listed Companies - **Valuation Table**: The table shows the closing prices, net profits attributable to the parent company, EPS, and PE ratios of multiple listed coal companies from 2024 to 2027 [110] - **Key Announcements**: This week, companies such as Huaihe Energy, Shanxi Coking Coal, and China Shenhua made announcements regarding asset acquisitions, share pledge releases, profit distributions, and project commissioning [111][113][114]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [5]. Core Views - The coal price continues to strengthen, with a marginal improvement in supply and demand dynamics, leading to an optimistic outlook for the future [1][8]. - The report highlights that the coal supply is expected to contract due to various factors, including increased safety inspections and government policies aimed at reducing overproduction [7][8]. - As winter approaches, the demand for electricity coal is anticipated to rise, further supporting coal prices [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The coal industry comprises 37 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 1,982.12 billion yuan [2]. - The report notes a significant increase in coal prices, with the port price for thermal coal exceeding 770 yuan/ton [7]. 2. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates that domestic coal supply is expected to contract, with coal imports showing a downward trend [7]. - Recent data shows that coal consumption in 25 provinces has increased, with a daily consumption of 5.335 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.94% [8]. 3. Company Performance and Recommendations - Key companies such as China Shenhua, Yancoal Energy, and Shanxi Coking Coal are highlighted as having strong performance and growth potential [5][13]. - The report recommends focusing on high-elasticity stocks like Yancoal Energy, Shanxi Coal International, and Jin控 Coal Industry, which are expected to benefit from the improving coal price environment [8][13]. 4. Price Tracking - The report tracks coal prices, noting that the price of thermal coal at the port has increased by 22 yuan/ton week-on-week [8]. - The average daily production of thermal coal from sample mines is reported at 5.479 million tons, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.78% [8]. 5. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the coal sector is entering a new upward cycle, with improving fundamentals and potential for price increases due to seasonal demand [8][9]. - The upcoming quarterly reports from major coal companies are expected to confirm the industry's recovery and upward trend in profitability [8].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the coal industry, indicating potential investment opportunities in high-quality core stocks [5][6]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that stabilizing coal prices is crucial for reversing the Producer Price Index (PPI) decline, with a noted correlation between coal prices and PPI [5]. - It highlights that the coal industry may still be in a "golden era" due to energy transformation demands and strict production capacity controls under carbon neutrality policies [5]. - The report anticipates that coal prices will experience fluctuations but trend upwards, with a focus on quality stocks as primary investment targets [5]. Summary by Sections Thermal Coal - As of October 24, 2025, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price is 770 CNY/ton, up 2.9% week-on-week [3][28]. - Daily average production from 462 sample mines is 5.479 million tons, down 4.3% week-on-week and 5.7% year-on-year [3][36]. - The report notes a significant drop in daily consumption at power plants, with a slight decrease in inventory levels [3][36]. Coking Coal - The price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1,760 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.9% [4][65]. - Daily average production from 523 sample mines is 761,000 tons, down 2.3% week-on-week [4][64]. - The report indicates a slight decrease in coking coal inventory levels across various regions [4][64]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong resource endowments and stable operating performance, such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical [6]. - It also suggests looking at companies with production growth potential that can benefit from the coal price cycle, including Yanzhou Coal Mining, Huayang Co., and Gansu Energy [6]. - Companies with global resource scarcity attributes and those involved in coal-electricity integration models are highlighted as potential investment targets [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent "overproduction check" policy in the coal industry has led to a significant supply-side contraction, which is expected to stabilize and potentially increase coal prices in the long term [1][6]. Group 1: Supply-Side Policy Impact - The "overproduction check" initiated by the National Energy Administration on July 10, 2025, has resulted in a notable decrease in domestic raw coal production, with year-on-year declines of -3.8% and -3.2% in July and August respectively [1]. - The cumulative supply-demand surplus has decreased sharply from 96.29 million tons in the first half of the year to 14.96 million tons by the end of August 2025 [1]. - The price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal increased from 621 CNY/ton on June 30, 2025, to 699 CNY/ton by September 30, 2025, marking a cumulative increase of 12.6% in Q3 [1]. Group 2: Price Trends and Performance - The average price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal in Q3 2025 was reported at 672 CNY/ton, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.5% [2]. - The long-term contract price for thermal coal showed a slight decline of -0.7% in Q3, but this is not expected to have a significant negative impact due to the recovery of contract fulfillment rates [2]. - The price of coking coal saw a substantial increase, with the average price for main coking coal at Jing Tang Port reaching 1562 CNY/ton, up 18.8% quarter-on-quarter [2]. Group 3: Production and Cost Management - The overall production of listed coal companies remains within approved capacity limits, with minor overproduction expected to have limited impact on performance [3]. - Cost control has become a key strategy for coal companies in response to declining prices, with significant reductions in labor, material, and safety production costs observed in Q2 2025 [4]. - As coal prices rebound in Q3, it is anticipated that companies will maintain their cost levels rather than pursue further reductions [4]. Group 4: Seasonal Demand and Future Outlook - Despite September typically being a low-demand season for coal, the supply-side contraction is expected to keep prices stable, with a slight increase of 0.1% in September [6]. - The winter season is projected to see stronger demand for heating coal, which, combined with ongoing supply-side policies, may lead to a tighter coal supply and sustained high prices [6]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch include stable large-scale thermal coal producers such as China Shenhua (601088), China Coal Energy (601898), and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225) [7]. - High-elasticity coal companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188) and Jincheng Anthracite Mining (601001) are also recommended for potential investment [7]. - Quality coking coal companies such as Huaibei Mining (600985) and Pingdingshan Tianan Coal (601666) are highlighted as attractive investment opportunities [7].

Group 1 - The coal sector is regaining attention due to improved supply-demand dynamics and strong cash flow, making it a potential target for "high-low cut" funds [1] - Coal prices and indices have performed well since October, driven by supply constraints from production checks and increased coal demand due to temperature fluctuations [2] - The coal sector is currently undervalued, with a demand for price recovery, particularly for companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining and Jinneng Holding [2] Group 2 - Future coal inventory demand is expected to grow, with limited supply increases, leading to a strong coal price outlook for Q4 [3] - The coal sector is projected to see renewed market interest, particularly in coal, banking, and agriculture, as these sectors are expected to perform well in Q4 [4] - The investment value of leading coal companies is highlighted due to their high dividends and strong cash flow, with a focus on companies like China Shenhua and Shanxi Coking Coal [5] Group 3 - The target price for thermal coal has been raised to 750-800 RMB/ton due to sustained demand and supply constraints [6] - The likelihood of a "La Niña" phenomenon this winter could lead to increased natural gas prices in Europe and Asia, prompting interest in natural gas-related companies [8]

Core Points - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.22% on October 23, with 21 out of 28 sectors experiencing gains, led by coal and oil & petrochemicals, which increased by 1.75% and 1.53% respectively [1] - The coal industry topped the gainers' list, while the communication and real estate sectors saw declines of 1.51% and 0.99% respectively [1] - Overall, there was a net outflow of 33.733 billion yuan in the main funds across the two markets, with six sectors seeing net inflows, primarily in coal [1] Industry Summary - The coal industry experienced a 1.75% increase with a net inflow of 1.465 billion yuan, where 34 out of 37 stocks rose, including 8 that hit the daily limit [2] - The top three stocks in terms of net inflow were Zhengzhou Coal Electricity (2.71 billion yuan), Shanxi Coking Coal (1.82 billion yuan), and Shaanxi Black Cat (1.69 billion yuan) [2] - The coal sector had six stocks with net outflows exceeding 10 million yuan, led by Baotailong, Dayou Energy, and Yanzhou Coal Mining, with outflows of 103 million yuan, 6.258 million yuan, and 4.727 million yuan respectively [2][3]

Group 1 - The coal sector saw an increase of 1.97%, ranking fifth among concept sectors, with 68 stocks rising, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Shanxi Coking Coal, and Yunmei Energy hitting the daily limit [1] - Leading stocks in the coal sector included Zhongfu Industrial, Shanxi Coking Coal, and Hengyuan Coal Power, which rose by 5.98%, 4.83%, and 4.78% respectively [1] - The top decliners in the sector were Northern International, Quzhou Development, and Jiangxi Tungsten Equipment, which fell by 5.32%, 2.25%, and 2.23% respectively [1] Group 2 - The coal sector attracted a net inflow of 1.238 billion yuan, with 45 stocks receiving net inflows, and 8 stocks exceeding 100 million yuan in net inflows [2] - Zhengzhou Coal Power led the net inflow with 271 million yuan, followed by Shanxi Coking Coal, Shaanxi Black Cat, and Shanxi Coal, which received net inflows of 182 million yuan, 169 million yuan, and 168 million yuan respectively [2] - The net inflow ratios for Zhengzhou Coal Power, Shaanxi Black Cat, and Yunmei Energy were 60.34%, 44.11%, and 40.88% respectively [3] Group 3 - The top stocks in the coal sector based on net inflow included Zhengzhou Coal Power, Shanxi Coking Coal, and Shaanxi Black Cat, with respective daily price increases of 10.02%, 10.07%, and 10.12% [3][4] - Other notable stocks included Antai Group, which rose by 10.00%, and Yunmei Energy, which increased by 10.06% [4] - The overall trading activity in the coal sector was characterized by significant turnover rates, with some stocks like Antai Group reaching a turnover rate of 20.83% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows a divergence in performance, with the energy sector, particularly coal, experiencing a significant rise despite a broader tech sector pullback, indicating strong investor interest in energy assets [1][6]. Energy Sector Performance - The energy ETF (159930) has seen a robust inflow of capital, with an estimated total of over 90 million yuan attracted over the past nine days, reflecting a strong demand for energy stocks [1][10]. - The coal sector has outperformed, with key stocks like Shanxi Coking Coal rising over 4% and major oil companies also showing gains, indicating a positive trend in energy-related equities [3][4]. Price Dynamics - The price index for thermal coal has increased from $99.16 per ton at the beginning of October to $107.88 per ton, marking an 8.8% increase, driven by supply constraints and rising demand due to extreme weather conditions [4][6]. - The supply of coal has been restricted due to regulatory measures against overproduction, leading to a likely continued upward trend in coal prices [6][7]. Factors Influencing Coal Prices - The increase in coal prices is attributed to several factors, including regulatory crackdowns on overproduction, extreme weather conditions affecting demand, and heightened safety inspections that may further limit supply [6][7]. - The government is focusing on stabilizing coal prices and preventing chaotic competition in the market, which is expected to support price stability [7][8]. Investment Outlook - The energy sector is viewed as a strong investment opportunity due to its high dividend yields and low valuation, with the energy ETF (159930) currently valued at a price-to-book ratio of only 1.34, making it an attractive option for investors seeking value [10][12]. - The coal sector is anticipated to experience a rebound as it has lagged in performance compared to other sectors, suggesting potential for price recovery and increased investor interest [8][10].

Core Insights - The coal mining sector experienced a rise of 1.18% on October 23, with Shanghai Energy leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3922.41, up 0.22%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13025.45, also up 0.22% [1] Coal Mining Sector Performance - Shanghai Energy (600508) closed at 14.03, with a significant increase of 10.04% and a trading volume of 304,500 shares, resulting in a transaction value of 421 million yuan [1] - Zhengzhou Coal Electricity (600121) and Dayou Energy (600403) also saw substantial gains of 10.02% and 10.01%, respectively [1] - Shanxi Coking Coal (000983) increased by 4.83%, with a transaction value of 1.657 billion yuan [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The coal mining sector saw a net inflow of 919 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 670 million yuan [2] - Major stocks like Zhengzhou Coal Electricity and Shanxi Coking Coal attracted significant main fund inflows of 249 million yuan and 155 million yuan, respectively [3] - Conversely, retail investors withdrew from several stocks, including Zhengzhou Coal Electricity and Shanxi Coking Coal, with outflows of 136 million yuan and 108 million yuan, respectively [3]

Core Points - Shanxi Coking Coal experienced a 5.24% increase in stock price, reaching 7.63 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.052 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 3.04%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 43.316 billion CNY [1] Company Overview - Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co., Ltd. is located in Taiyuan, Shanxi Province, and was established on April 26, 1999, with its listing date on July 26, 2000 [1] - The company's main business includes coal production, washing, processing, sales, power generation, mining development, and the production and operation of mining and electrical equipment [1] - The revenue composition of the company is as follows: coal 57.58%, coke and tar 23.18%, electricity and heat 17.42%, other income 1.67%, and cement clinker, etc. 0.15% [1] Fund Holdings - Dachen Fund has a significant holding in Shanxi Coking Coal, with the Dachen CSI Dividend Low Volatility 100 ETF (560520) holding 45,800 shares, accounting for 2.77% of the fund's net value, making it the second-largest holding [2] - The Dachen CSI Dividend Low Volatility 100 ETF was established on April 8, 2024, with a latest scale of 10.5644 million CNY, and has achieved a year-to-date return of 4.5% [2] Fund Manager Performance - The fund manager Li Shao has been in position for 6 years and 2 days, managing assets totaling 8.386 billion CNY, with the best fund return during his tenure being 78.31% and the worst being -20.89% [3] - Co-manager Zheng Shaofang has been in position for 2 years and 112 days, managing assets of 1.811 billion CNY, with the best return of 45.78% and the worst return of 0.25% during his tenure [3]