煤炭 煤炭行业 2026 年策略报告 领先大市-A(维持) 【山证煤炭】煤炭进口数据拆解：25 年 11 月进口煤价继续提升 2025.12.30 【山证煤炭】煤炭月度供需数据点评 11 月：煤价环比上涨，反内卷初心未变 2025.12.17 胡博 执业登记编码：S0760522090003 邮箱：hubo1@sxzq.com 程俊杰 执业登记编码：S0760519110005 邮箱：chengjunjie@sxzq.com 将反内卷进行到底 2026 年 1 月 7 日 行业研究/行业年度策略 投资要点： 首选股票 评级 反内卷扭转煤炭市场预期。2025 年以来，煤炭股受累于煤价下 降，108 号文流向市场后，煤炭股悲观预期随即得到显著缓释。从 核心宏观目标来说，反内卷主要是为了扭转通缩趋势，传导链条为 "通缩→反内卷→盈利提升→通胀"。对煤炭而言，短期看供给控 制，中长期看需求复苏。反内卷需要上下游维持合理利润。"政策 顶"和"政策底"推动合理煤价中枢逐步形成。2016 年供给侧改革 和 2024 年山西查三超是反内卷运动的可比事件，底层驱动影响调 控效果，供给侧改革是债务驱动，山西查三超是安全生产驱动。 ...

人民财讯1月7日电，煤炭板块持续上扬，大有能源（600403）、陕西黑猫（601015）、安泰集团 （600408）涨停，郑州煤电（600121）涨超8%，潞安环能（601699）、山西焦煤（000983）纷纷大 涨。 ...

Group 1 - A-shares in the coal sector experienced a collective rise, with notable stocks such as Shaanxi Black Cat and Antai Group hitting the daily limit, and Shanxi Coking Coal increasing by over 7% [1][2] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange's main contract for coking coal reached a limit-up price of 1164 RMB/ton, reflecting a 7.98% increase, while the coking coal contract rose by 6.85% to 1754.5 RMB/ton [2][3] - The strong performance in the futures market has positively influenced the sentiment in the A-share coal sector [2] Group 2 - According to Shanxi Securities' latest report, the demand for thermal coal is expected to increase due to low temperatures, coupled with a continued supply contraction, which may stabilize and gradually increase coal prices [7] - For coking coal, low inventory levels and supply contraction are expected to support prices, with downstream winter storage demand gradually being released, leading to a stable price outlook [7] - The coal mining sector is likely to see improved profitability as coal prices stabilize, benefiting companies with quality coal production capabilities [8] - The coal processing sector will experience reduced cost volatility due to stable coal prices, with rising coking coal prices positively impacting the prices of processed products [8] - Power generation companies will see their coal procurement costs return to reasonable levels as coal prices stabilize, alleviating profitability pressures during the heating season [8]

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a collective rise in coal stocks on January 7, with notable increases in various companies, including a 10% surge for Shaanxi Black Cat and over 7% for Shanxi Coking Coal [1] - Futures for coking coal reached a limit increase of 8%, priced at 1164 yuan/ton, while coking coal futures main contract rose over 7% to 1757 yuan/ton [1] Group 2 - Shaanxi Black Cat (601015) had a market cap of 8.313 billion yuan and a year-to-date increase of 12.43% [2] - Shanxi Coking Coal (000983) reported a market cap of 40.1 billion yuan with a year-to-date increase of 9.97% [2] - Jiangxi Tungsten Equipment (600397) had a market cap of 8.009 billion yuan and a year-to-date increase of 6.45% [2] - Lu'an Environmental Energy (601699) reported a market cap of 38.3 billion yuan with a year-to-date increase of 8.39% [2] - Dayou Energy (600403) had a market cap of 1.79 billion yuan and a year-to-date increase of 7.45% [2] - Baotailong (601011) reported a market cap of 6.743 billion yuan with a year-to-date increase of 3.53% [2] - Yunmei Energy (600792) had a market cap of 4.606 billion yuan and a year-to-date increase of 6.96% [2] - Zhengzhou Coal Power (600121) reported a market cap of 5.483 billion yuan with a year-to-date increase of 7.91% [2] - Shanxi Coking (600740) had a market cap of 10.2 billion yuan and a year-to-date increase of 5.85% [2]

MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ | 代码 | 名杯 | | 涨幅% ↓ | 总市值 | 年初至今涨幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601015 | 陕西黑猫 | | 10.00 | 83.13亿 | 12.43 | | 000983 | 山西焦煤 | | 7.13 | 401亿 | 9.97 | | 600397 | 江钨装备 | | 5.20 | 80.09亿 | 6.45 | | 601699 | 潞安环能 | | 4.92 | 383亿 | 8.39 | | 600403 | 大有能源 | | 4.90 | 179亿 | 7.45 | | 601011 | 宝泰隆 | 1 | 4.45 | 67.43 乙 | 3.53 | | 600792 | 云煤能源 | | 4.01 | 46.06亿 | 6.96 | | 600121 | 郑州煤电 | | 3.93 | 54.83亿 | 7.91 | | 600740 | 山西焦化 | | 3.65 | 102亿 | 5.85 | | 601918 | 新集能源 | 1 | 2.98 | 179亿 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Energy ETF Guangfa (159945) opened at a slight decline of 0.17%, indicating a mixed performance among its major holdings [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The Energy ETF Guangfa (159945) opened at 1.192 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 0.17% [1] - Since its establishment on June 25, 2015, the fund has achieved a return of 19.49%, with a recent one-month return of 0.29% [1] Group 2: Major Holdings Performance - China Shenhua opened with an increase of 0.54% [1] - China Petroleum experienced a decline of 1.17% [1] - Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry rose by 0.90% [1] - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation fell by 0.65% [1] - CNOOC saw a decrease of 1.14% [1] - Jereh Group dropped by 0.74% [1] - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company increased by 1.11% [1] - Guanghui Energy remained unchanged at 0.00% [1] - China Coal Energy rose by 0.69% [1] - Shanxi Coking Coal increased significantly by 3.95% [1]

格隆汇1月6日｜国投证券研报指出，山西焦煤炼焦煤主业提质增效，电力业务严控成本。公司积极推进 绿色和智能化转型，在绿色转型方面，华晋焦煤完成了瓦斯发电一期提质增效改造和瓦斯抽采利用系统 优化，2025年上半年共利用抽采瓦斯7800万立方米，减排二氧化碳117万吨；智能化转型方面，累计建 成10座智能化矿山、21处智能化综采工作面 、30处智能化掘进工作面、75处井下无人值守变电所和37 处无人值守水泵房，转型发展成果丰硕。在电力市场化改革背景下，公司严控火力发电成本，及时关停 落后产能西山热电机组，并加强燃料管控，压降燃煤成本；同时优化电量营销策略，合理布局中长期电 量和现货交易市场，实现售电稳产增收。参考可比公司估值，给予公司2026年15倍PE，对应目标价6.51 元，首次覆盖，予以"增持-A"投资评级。 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate-A" investment rating to the company, with a target price of 6.51 yuan for 2026 [4][6][14]. Core Insights - The company possesses significant resource advantages, with a total coal resource reserve of approximately 6.5 billion tons, enhanced by the acquisition of an additional 950 million tons of coal exploration rights [1][11]. - The company is leading the industry in green and intelligent transformation, having established multiple smart mining operations and optimized gas extraction systems, resulting in substantial CO2 emissions reductions [2]. - The power business has seen a notable improvement in gross margin, with a year-on-year increase of 7.66 percentage points in the first half of 2025, driven by cost control measures and strategic marketing [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 37.92 billion, 41.11 billion, and 43.41 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of -16.3%, 8.4%, and 5.6% [4][14]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 1.84 billion, 2.46 billion, and 3.00 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of -40.9%, 34.2%, and 21.8% [4][14]. - The average selling price of coal is expected to rise from 807 yuan per ton in 2025 to 913 yuan per ton by 2027, while the average sales cost is projected to stabilize around 450 yuan per ton [11][12]. Business Segments - The coal segment is projected to maintain sales volumes of 28 million tons in 2025, increasing to 30 million tons by 2027, with a focus on enhancing production through technological upgrades [11]. - The coke segment is expected to maintain a steady production load, with sales volumes projected at 3.5 million tons for 2025-2027 [12]. - The power segment anticipates a slight decline in utilization hours, with expected electricity sales of 179 billion kWh in 2025, decreasing slightly in subsequent years [12].

从资金流向上来看，当日煤炭开采板块主力资金净流入9870.76万元，游资资金净流出1.79亿元，散户资 金净流入8017.72万元。煤炭开采板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002128 | 电投能源 | 28.71 | 2.87% | | 19.90万 | 5.72亿 | | 601001 | 晋控煤业 | 13.42 | 2.05% | | 20.67万 | 2.75亿 | | 000983 | 山西焦煤 | 6.52 | 1.56% | | 33.12万 | 2.15亿 | | 600403 | 大有能源 | 7.08 | 1.43% | | 24.82万 | 1.74亿 | | 601225 | 陕西煤业 | 21.62 | 1.41% | | 37.84万 | 8.21亿 | | 600758 | 辽宁能源 | 3.69 | 1.37% | | 13.40万 | 4944.57万 | | 000552 | 日肃能化 | 2.34 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, indicating a "Look Favorably" rating due to expected price increases driven by seasonal demand and stricter safety regulations [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that as of January 4, 2026, the spot prices for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port have increased, with Q4500, Q5000, and Q5500 grades priced at 505, 593, and 682 RMB/ton respectively, reflecting week-on-week increases of 18, 14, and 6 RMB/ton [1]. - Supply-side constraints are noted, with a decrease in daily coal inflow to the Bohai Rim ports, down to 1.3888 million tons, a reduction of 116,300 tons week-on-week [1]. - Demand is supported by ongoing cold weather, leading to improved daily consumption, which has risen to 1.6768 million tons, an increase of 85,600 tons week-on-week [1]. - The report anticipates that the combination of high consumption levels and reduced production from high-cost mines will support thermal coal prices moving forward [1]. - For coking coal, prices remain stable, with Shanxi Anze low-sulfur coking coal priced at 1600 RMB/ton as of January 4, 2026 [1]. Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - The report discusses the implementation of a "benchmark price + floating price" mechanism for long-term contracts for thermal coal, with prices set at 540, 483, and 453 RMB/ton for different regions [7]. - It also mentions increased regulatory scrutiny on safety measures in coal mining, particularly during the winter heating season [7]. Price Trends - The report notes that the average daily consumption of coal has increased by 3.94% week-on-week, while the inventory of major power generation groups has decreased by 11.8% [3]. - The Bohai Rim coal inventory has decreased to 27.127 million tons, down 191,500 tons week-on-week, indicating a 6.59% drop [20]. International Oil Prices - Brent crude oil prices have increased slightly to 60.75 USD/barrel, reflecting a 0.18% rise week-on-week [15]. - The report highlights the relationship between international oil prices and coal prices, noting a rise in the ratio of international oil prices to international coal prices [15]. Company Valuation - The report provides a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal, with various earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios forecasted for the coming years [32].