Core Viewpoint - The concept of "shared energy storage" was first proposed in Qinghai Province in 2018, representing a new commercial model for grid-side energy storage, which is increasingly recognized as a vital approach for renewable energy consumption and stability in the power grid [1][2][4][16]. Industry Overview - "Shared energy storage" refers to independent energy storage stations located at key nodes of the power grid, serving all market participants in the region. These stations are typically built by third-party investors and provide services to other renewable energy plants while participating in electricity trading [1][2]. - In 2023, approximately 54% of new installations in the new energy storage sector were grid-side independent storage, with this market share expected to increase in 2024 [1][16]. Market Status - As of the end of 2024, the cumulative installed capacity of new energy storage projects in China reached 73.76 GW/168 GWh, marking a 130% increase compared to the end of 2023 [7]. - Lithium-ion batteries dominate the market, accounting for 97.1% of the installed capacity, although the share has slightly decreased due to the introduction of several large-scale long-duration storage projects [9]. Policy Environment - The shared energy storage model was first recognized in national policy in 2021, encouraging its development and market participation [11][12]. - Local governments, including those in Guangdong, Qinghai, and Shandong, have implemented supportive policies to promote shared energy storage, with specific requirements for capacity leasing agreements [13][14]. Business Models - Shared energy storage operates through four main business models: leasing storage capacity to renewable energy plants, participating in auxiliary services, engaging in electricity spot market trading for profit, and capacity compensation. Leasing fees are currently the primary revenue source for most independent shared storage stations [20]. Development Trends - Shared energy storage is one of the most active business models in the storage sector, driven by the demand for energy storage and grid stability. The sector is transitioning from pilot projects to large-scale, systematic, and industrialized development [22]. - The integration of AI, big data, and IoT technologies is expected to enhance the intelligence and operational efficiency of shared energy storage stations [22].

Group 1 - Insurance capital is increasing equity investments through various methods such as shareholding and long-term stock investment trials due to low interest rates and supportive policies [1][2] - Analysts expect insurance companies to continue increasing equity investments, which will reduce the impact of stock market fluctuations on current profit statements [1][3] - The focus is shifting towards the CSI A500 index, which emphasizes technology and emerging industry leaders [1][3] Group 2 - Recent actions include China Ping An Life Insurance increasing its stake in China Merchants Bank to 12% and Ruizhong Life Insurance raising its stake in Longyuan Power to 16.04% [2] - The long duration of traditional insurance accounts makes them suitable for investing in low-valuation, stable-growth targets, benefiting from capital gains and high dividends in a low-interest environment [2] - Insurance funds are actively seeking long-term stock investment trials to address asset allocation issues and take advantage of relatively low A-share market valuations [4][5] Group 3 - The introduction of policies has expanded investment space for insurance funds, allowing for a reduction in risk capital requirements for equity assets [3][5] - The long-term stock investment trial allows insurance funds to invest through private equity funds, which can stabilize market value accounting and provide more flexible dividend options [4][5] - Regulatory approval for long-term stock investment trials has reached a total of 222 billion yuan, with significant funds expected to flow into the capital market [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility and environmental protection sectors [6][9]. Core Views - The environmental sector's revenue in 2024 is projected to decline by 0.6% to CNY 364.236 billion, with net profit decreasing by 14.7% to CNY 23.058 billion. However, in Q1 2025, the sector is expected to see a revenue increase of 3.5% to CNY 81.243 billion and a net profit growth of 3.8% to CNY 8.232 billion [3][21]. - The report highlights the impact of the new market-oriented pricing reforms for renewable energy in Shandong, aiming for full market integration by the end of 2025 [2][16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the carbon neutrality context, recommending investments in the new energy industry chain and comprehensive energy management [41][42]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.00%, while the public utility index increased by 2.22%, and the environmental index rose by 2.93% [1][43]. Important Policies and Events - Shandong's new pricing reform aims for full market integration of wind and solar energy by 2025, with differentiated policies for existing and new projects [2][16]. Financial Overview of the Environmental Sector - In 2024, only the solid waste management and water treatment sectors showed positive growth, while the environmental equipment sector saw a decline of over 30% [3][21]. - The atmospheric governance sector reported a loss increase, while the comprehensive environmental governance sector shifted from profit to loss [21][24]. Investment Strategy - Recommendations include major thermal power companies like Huadian International and regional electricity firms like Shanghai Electric, as well as leading renewable energy firms such as Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy [4][41]. - The report suggests focusing on "utility-like investment opportunities" within the environmental sector, recommending companies like China Everbright Environment and Zhongshan Public Utilities [42][41]. Key Company Profit Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Several companies, including Huadian International and Longyuan Power, are rated as "Outperform" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth for 2025 [9][41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for companies such as China Nuclear Power, Funiu Co., and Huaneng Hydropower, while giving a "Cautious Recommendation" to companies like China General Nuclear Power and Longyuan Power [23][3]. Core Insights - The electricity sector outperformed the market this week, with the public utility sector rising by 2.22% and the electricity sub-sector by 2.21%, both exceeding the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [1][7]. - Shandong Province has established a mechanism electricity price that aligns with the benchmark price for coal-fired power, which is expected to stabilize investment returns for renewable energy projects [2][24]. - The report highlights the significant drop in coal prices, which has led to steady growth in thermal power performance in Q1, with expectations for continued improvement as the peak electricity consumption season approaches [3][20]. Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The public utility sector index closed at 2,377.21 points, up 51.64 points, while the electricity sub-sector closed at 3,171.91 points, up 68.52 points [1][7]. - The sub-sectors showed varied performance, with solar power up 4.01%, thermal power up 4.00%, and wind power up 1.78% [12][19]. Special Topic - Shandong's new pricing mechanism for renewable energy projects is set at 0.3949 yuan per kWh, matching the coal-fired benchmark price, which is expected to mitigate revenue volatility for existing projects [2][24]. - The competitive bidding for new renewable projects starting from June 1, 2025, will determine the mechanism price, enhancing investment predictability [2][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong growth potential in the thermal and hydropower sectors, particularly Funiu Co., Gansu Energy, and Huaneng International [3][20]. - It also emphasizes the stability of large hydropower companies in a declining interest rate environment, recommending companies like Yangtze Power and Chuanwei Energy [3][20]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for several companies, with China Nuclear Power expected to have an EPS of 0.46 yuan in 2024, while Funiu Co. is projected at 1.07 yuan [23][3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the public utility sector is "Positive" and is maintained [8]. Core Insights - The new public offering regulations are expected to drive capital inflows into the long-underweighted public utility sector, which has a current allocation of only 0.94% in actively managed public funds, significantly lower than the weights in the CSI 300 and CSI A500 indices [2][10]. - The sector's earnings have shown signs of recovery, with expectations for continued performance improvement in the second quarter and throughout the year [2][10]. Summary by Sections Public Offering Regulations - The implementation of new public offering regulations is likely to provide marginal support for the public utility sector, which has been significantly underweighted in fund allocations. The sector's weight in the CSI 300 index is 3.53%, while the allocation in actively managed funds is only 0.94%, indicating a shortfall of 2.59 percentage points compared to the index [2][10]. Earnings Recovery - The public utility sector's earnings recovery has been validated by first-quarter performance, with expectations for continued improvement. Specific insights include: - Coal prices have decreased, alleviating pressure on thermal power generation, which is expected to enhance earnings in the second quarter [10]. - Hydropower assets are becoming increasingly attractive due to declining interest rates, with companies like Yangtze Power showing a high dividend yield compared to government bond yields [10]. - Nuclear power is anticipated to recover as new units come online, mitigating previous earnings pressures [10]. - Green energy companies are expected to benefit from policy support and asset value reassessment [10]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on quality thermal power operators such as Huadian International, China Resources Power, and Huaneng International, as well as hydropower leaders like Yangtze Power and Guotou Power. In the renewable energy sector, companies like Longyuan Power and China Nuclear Power are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [10][13][15].

2025年4月发电量数据公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容真实、准确和完整，没有虚假记载、误导 性陈述或者重大遗漏。 龙源电力集团股份有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）2025 年 4 月按合并报 表口径完成发电量 6,906,425 兆瓦时，较 2024 年同期同比增长 4.85%；剔除火电 影响同比增长 17.35%，本月风电发电量同比增长 10.52%，光伏发电量同比增长 76.55%。 证券代码：001289 证券简称：龙源电力 公告编号：2025-032 龙源电力集团股份有限公司 2. 本公告中提供的数字经过整数调整，因此若总计数字与所列各项之和出现尾数差异，皆 因整数调整所致。 以上发电量数据来自本公司内部统计。数据在月度之间可能存在较大差异， 其影响因素包括但不限于天气变化、设备检修、季节性因素和安全检查等。数据 可能与相关期间定期报告披露的数据有差异。投资者应注意不恰当信赖或使用以 上信息可能造成投资风险。 2 龙源电力集团股份有限公司 董 事 会 2025 年 5 月 9 日 3 截至 2025 年 4 月 30 日，本公司 2025 年累计完成发电量 27,192,529 兆瓦时， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for companies like Funiu Co., Huaneng Water Power, and China Nuclear Power, while giving a "Cautious Recommendation" for companies like China General Nuclear Power and Longyuan Power [4][7]. Core Viewpoints - The electricity sector shows resilience with a strong performance in Q1 2025, driven by stable demand and a transition towards peak electricity consumption in Q2 and Q3 [1][11]. - The coal price drop significantly benefits thermal power companies, leading to improved profitability despite a decrease in revenue due to falling electricity prices [2][3]. - Hydropower companies are experiencing stable growth, supported by favorable water conditions and new capacity additions, although they face some pressure from tax payments [2][54]. - Nuclear power continues to expand in capacity, but faces short-term fluctuations in profitability due to tax expenses and market price changes [2][71]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity Sector Performance - The electricity index has shown strength, with the sector outperforming the broader market in early 2025, despite initial underperformance compared to growth stocks [1][11]. - The sector is expected to maintain steady growth as it enters the peak electricity consumption season in Q2 and Q3 [1][11]. 2. Thermal Power - Thermal power revenue decreased by 1% in 2024 to 1,218.9 billion yuan, with Q1 2025 revenue down 8% year-on-year to 286.9 billion yuan [2][36]. - Despite revenue declines, net profit for thermal power companies increased by 31% in 2024 to 65.6 billion yuan, and by 8% in Q1 2025 to 21.9 billion yuan, benefiting from lower coal prices [2][38]. 3. Hydropower - Hydropower revenue grew by 8.98% in 2024 to 194.4 billion yuan, with Q1 2025 revenue increasing by 8.63% to 417.7 billion yuan [2][54]. - The net profit for hydropower companies rose by 17.48% in 2024 to 56.4 billion yuan, with a significant increase of 28.11% in Q1 2025 to 113.5 billion yuan [2][57]. 4. Nuclear Power - The nuclear power sector achieved a revenue of 164.1 billion yuan in 2024, a 4.17% increase, but net profit fell by 8.23% to 19.6 billion yuan [2][71]. - In Q1 2025, nuclear power revenue rose by 8.42% to 40.3 billion yuan, while net profit decreased by 7.51% to 6.2 billion yuan [2][71]. 5. Green Energy - The green energy sector faced challenges with revenue growth not translating into profit, with 2024 revenue at 143.5 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.27%, but net profit decreased by 6.48% to 239.9 billion yuan [2][3]. - In Q1 2025, green energy revenue fell by 3.35% to 350.5 billion yuan, with net profit down 6.32% to 77.4 billion yuan [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price not specified [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 8.14 billion yuan for Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.92%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 21.82% to 1.977 billion yuan [1][4] - The company has expanded its installed capacity, with an additional 36.25 MW added in Q1, bringing the total installed capacity to 41.1 GW, which includes 30.4 GW from wind power and 10.7 GW from solar power [2] - Wind power generation saw a slight increase, while solar power generation experienced significant growth, with wind power generation at 17.776 billion kWh (up 4.37%) and solar power generation at 2.509 billion kWh (up 55.65%) [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue was 8.14 billion yuan, with wind power revenue at 7.368 billion yuan (down 1.89%) and solar power revenue at 715 million yuan (up 43.09%) [4] - Operating expenses increased by 14.13% to 4.81 billion yuan, primarily due to increased depreciation and amortization from new energy installations [4] Installed Capacity and Projects - The company plans to start new renewable energy projects totaling 5.5 GW in 2025, with 5 GW expected to be operational [2] - The total installed capacity as of March 2025 is 41.1 GW, with a breakdown of 30.4 GW from wind, 10.7 GW from solar, and 0.006 GW from other renewable sources [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 7.4 billion, 7.9 billion, and 8.3 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 6.5, 6.1, and 5.8 [5]

Core Viewpoint - Longyuan Power's Q1 2025 net profit decreased by 21.9% year-on-year, primarily due to the profit gap from the divestment of thermal power assets and uncontrolled operating costs [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - Longyuan Power's Q1 net profit decline was approximately 100 million yuan due to the divestment of thermal power business, which aligns with the company's strategy to focus on clean energy [2] - Operating expenses grew at a rate significantly higher than revenue, contributing to the profit decline [2] - The company added 34.7 MW of wind power and 1.5 MW of solar power in Q1, totaling 36.25 MW, but this increase did not effectively offset the cost pressures [2] Group 2: Market Outlook and Strategy - Jiao Yin International predicts that Longyuan Power will accelerate its installation pace before the June 1 policy deadline, aiming to add 5 GW of clean energy projects in 2025, primarily in wind power [3] - The rapid deployment of new energy projects may lead to increased equipment procurement costs and potential issues with grid absorption capacity, raising concerns about the company's ability to balance expansion with profitability [3] - The low proportion of solar installations (less than 5%) highlights the company's reliance on a single business structure, which may limit its long-term risk resilience [3] Group 3: Valuation and Market Sentiment - Jiao Yin International has lowered Longyuan Power's 2025-2026 profit forecasts by 2.4% and adjusted the target price to 7.81 HKD while maintaining a "buy" rating, reflecting a balance between short-term volatility and long-term value [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 3.17, indicating it is at a historical low, leading some investors to believe that negative factors are over-reflected [4] - Concerns remain regarding the company's profit structure post-thermal power divestment, particularly as the wind power sector faces challenges from market price reforms [4]

丨证券研究报告丨 联合研究丨公司点评丨龙源电力（001289.SZ） [Table_Title] 偏弱来风限制业绩表现，内生外延保障长期成长 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 受偏弱来风影响，一季度公司风电平均利用小时同比下降 55 小时，但新能源装机保持快速扩 张，剔除火电剥离因素，一季度发电量同比增长 8.81%。公司一季度营业收入同比减少 19.00%， 营收的偏弱表现主因系火电资产的剥离影响。随着新能源项目的持续投产，折旧摊销等成本同 比增加，新能源成本增加幅度大于售电收入的增加，新能源板块毛利率预计有所下滑。在火电 业务剥离、新能源经营承压的共同影响下，公司 2025 年一季度实现归母净利润 19.02 亿元， 同比减少 22.07%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 张韦华 邬博华 司旗 宋尚骞 刘亚辉 SAC：S0490517080003 SAC：S0490514040001 SAC：S0490520120001 SAC：S0490520110001 SAC：S0490523080003 SFC：BQT627 SFC：BQK482 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% ...