Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of Yunda Holdings in July 2025, showcasing a steady growth in revenue and business volume despite a decline in per-package income [1] Group 2 - Yunda Holdings reported a revenue of 4.12 billion yuan in July, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.75% [1] - The company completed a business volume of 2.162 billion packages, which is a year-on-year growth of 7.56% [1] - The average revenue per package was 1.91 yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 3.54% [1]

人民财讯8月19日电，韵达股份（002120）8月19日晚间公告，7月快递服务业务收入41.20亿元，同比增 长3.75%；完成业务量21.62亿票，同比增长7.56%；快递服务单票收入1.91元，同比下降3.54%。 ...

证券代码：002120 证券简称：韵达股份 公告编号：2025-054 韵达控股集团股份有限公司 关于全资子公司境外美元债券完成本息兑付的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 韵达控股集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）境外全资子公司YUNDA Holding Investment Limited于2020年8月19日在境外完成5亿美元债券的发行（以 下简称"本次美元债券"），本次美元债券在香港联合交易所有限公司上市，票 面利率为2.25%，每半年支付一次，债券期限5年，债券到期日为2025年8月19日。 具体内容详见公司2020年8月20日于巨潮资讯网（www.cninfo.com.cn）上披露的 《关于全资子公司发行境外美元债券完成情况的公告》（公告编号：2020-071）。 截至 2025 年 8 月 19 日，本次美元债券的本息兑付工作已完成。 特此公告。 韵达控股集团股份有限公司董事会 2025年8月20日 ...

证券代码：002120 证券简称：韵达股份 公告编号：2025-055 韵达控股集团股份有限公司 2025年7月快递服务主要经营指标快报 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 根据《深圳证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 3 号——行业信息披露 （2025 年修订）》的规定，韵达控股集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）2025 年 7 月快递服务主要经营指标情况如下： 一、公司 2025 年 7 月快递服务主要经营指标 | 项目 | 2025年7月 | 同比增长 | | --- | --- | --- | | 快递服务业务收入（亿元） | 41.20 | 3.75% | | 完成业务量（亿票） | 21.62 | 7.56% | | 快递服务单票收入（元） | 1.91 | -3.54% | 二、数据说明 上述数据未经审计，可能会与定期报告数据存在差异，仅供投资者阶段性参 考，相关数据以公司定期报告为准，请投资者注意风险。 特此公告。 韵达控股集团股份有限公司董事会 2025年8月20日 ...

Market Overview - On August 19, the logistics sector experienced a slight decline of 0.06% compared to the previous trading day, with Jiacheng International leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3727.29, down 0.02%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11821.63, down 0.12% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the logistics sector included: - Pulutong (002769) with a closing price of 9.02, up 3.92% on a trading volume of 298,600 shares and a turnover of 267 million yuan - Chuanhua Zhili (002010) at 6.33, up 2.43% with a volume of 911,300 shares and a turnover of 577 million yuan - Hongchuan Wisdom (002930) at 12.45, up 2.38% with a volume of 128,100 shares and a turnover of 159 million yuan [1] - Conversely, Jiacheng International (603535) saw a significant decline of 4.00%, closing at 12.23 with a trading volume of 260,300 shares and a turnover of 318 million yuan [2] Capital Flow - The logistics sector experienced a net outflow of 192 million yuan from institutional investors and 139 million yuan from retail investors, while individual investors saw a net inflow of 331 million yuan [2] - Key stocks with notable capital flows included: - Shunfeng Holdings (002352) with a net inflow of 14.7 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 82.7 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Pulutong (002769) had a net inflow of 17.5 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 20.4 million yuan [3]

Summary of Conference Call on the Express Delivery Industry Industry Overview - The express delivery industry is currently facing challenges such as price wars and market share competition, exacerbated by new social security regulations that increase cost pressures [1][4] - The National Postal Administration emphasizes the need to regulate and rectify the industry's "involution" competition, with some regions implementing price increases, though the effectiveness varies by local government support [1][3] Key Points and Arguments - **Social Security Regulations**: The new social security regulations are expected to significantly impact the express delivery industry, with full compliance anticipated by September 2025, leading to an increase in costs of approximately 0.02 CNY per package [1][4][6] - **Price Increase Trends**: The Guangdong region has implemented a price increase of 0.4 to 0.5 CNY, while other areas like Hunan still experience price wars. The price increase is part of a broader strategy to stabilize the market and improve service quality [3][5] - **Market Dynamics**: The disparity in market share between leading companies and smaller firms is expected to widen, with smaller firms showing greater profit elasticity, particularly companies like Shentong, Yunda, and Jitu, which have profit elasticity ranging from 80% to 150% [1][5][6] - **Cost Sharing**: The burden of social security costs is likely to be shared across the entire supply chain, including listed companies, franchisees, and labor outsourcing companies, making it difficult to quantify the exact distribution of these costs [6][9] Additional Important Insights - **Future Market Expectations**: The implementation of anti-involution policies is expected to enhance service quality and market competition, leading to healthier industry development. However, the varying levels of government support for price increases will affect the overall effectiveness of these policies [5][8] - **Elasticity of Earnings**: The earnings elasticity for companies is projected to be significant, with even pessimistic scenarios showing close to 200% elasticity for smaller firms. The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for these companies are currently low, making them attractive investment opportunities [7][9] - **Expansion of Anti-Involution Trends**: The anti-involution trend is expected to spread beyond major grain-producing areas to non-grain-producing regions, although this will take time. The overall trend indicates a likelihood of price increases during peak seasons [2][8] Conclusion - The express delivery industry is undergoing significant changes due to regulatory pressures and market dynamics. The anticipated rise in social security costs and the push for price increases are expected to reshape the competitive landscape, favoring larger firms while providing opportunities for smaller firms with high profit elasticity. Continuous monitoring of government support and market responses will be crucial for stakeholders in the industry [1][5][9]

Market Overview - On August 18, the logistics sector rose by 1.32% compared to the previous trading day, with Jushen Co., Ltd. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3728.03, up 0.85%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11835.57, up 1.73% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Jushen Co., Ltd. (001202) closed at 15.72, up 10.01% with a trading volume of 50,600 lots and a transaction value of approximately 77.14 million yuan [1] - YTO Express (600233) closed at 17.83, up 6.00% with a trading volume of 499,600 lots [1] - Shentong Express (002468) closed at 17.28, up 5.43% with a trading volume of 558,600 lots [1] - Yunda Holdings (002120) closed at 8.75, up 5.17% with a trading volume of 1,341,400 lots [1] - Milkway (603713) closed at 61.30, up 4.02% with a trading volume of 49,900 lots [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The logistics sector experienced a net outflow of 96.93 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 161 million yuan [2] - Speculative funds had a net inflow of 258 million yuan into the logistics sector [2] Detailed Capital Flow for Selected Stocks - Yunda Holdings (002120) had a net inflow of 77.34 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 79.52 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Shentong Express (002468) saw a net inflow of 46.63 million yuan from institutional investors and a net outflow of 12.27 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Jushen Co., Ltd. (001202) had a net inflow of 24.79 million yuan from institutional investors, with a significant net outflow of 13.19 million yuan from retail investors [3]

智通财经APP获悉，国盛证券发布研报称，本轮快递反内卷，一方面强调了快递企业作为反内卷的主 体，一方面强调了国家和地方邮管局的监管职责和执法能力，双管齐下。此次快递反内卷自上而下，且 广东省已率先落地，该行认为具有扩散效应，且在淡旺季衔接和社保新规背景下，快递反内卷具备持续 性，各主要快递上市公司业绩弹性大。 广东作为快递业务量占比较高的地区，2017年以来其快递业务量占全国业务量的份额保持在 24.33%-27.25%，其反内卷率先落地，有望对全国其他快递"产粮区"形成示范效应，从其他地方邮政局 的动作看，预计其他地区如浙江、福建等地区会一定程度的跟随涨价。 淡季涨价叠加社保新规，预计反内卷效果将在一定时期内持续 不同于以往年份的旺季涨价，今年快递行业在反内卷的推动下，淡季进行提价，而之后可以衔接旺季， 从需求端来看，此次反内卷效果具有一定持续性。最高人民法院强调依法参加社保是法定义务，新规自 9月1日起施行。该行以每人日均派件500票、按各地标准缴纳社保测算快递小哥全员缴纳社保后，对单 票的平均影响在6分钱。因此，从成本端看，若后续快递小哥全员缴纳社保后，快递加盟商的成本增 加，经营压力进一步提升，而反内 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Equity Research Report on China Express Delivery Industry Overview - The A-share Express Delivery Index has increased by 18% since July, outperforming the CSI300 index which rose by 4% [3] - The profitability improvement across the express delivery industry has not been fully reflected in stock prices, particularly for major players like YTO, which saw an 80%+ improvement in PE ratios due to express price hikes in Q4 2021 [3] Core Insights - **Price Recovery and Policy Support**: The ongoing anti-involution policy and expected price floor increases in regions like Guangdong (RMB0.4-0.5 increase to RMB1.4 per parcel) are anticipated to enhance profitability and earnings visibility for delivery players in 2026 [3][5] - **ASP Trends**: Major players experienced a year-on-year increase in Average Selling Price (ASP) of 13-21% in 2022, but ASP is expected to remain flat in 2026 due to a higher mix of low-priced parcels and price sensitivity among consumers [4] - **Volume Growth**: Industrial parcel volume growth is projected to slow to approximately 10-15% year-on-year in 4Q25-2026, following a low growth of 2% in 2022 due to pandemic impacts [4] Company Ratings and Target Prices - **Upgrades**: YTO and Yunda have been upgraded to "Buy" from "Hold" due to recent policy-driven price hikes, while STO Express remains a preferred choice with a maintained "Buy" rating [6][11] - **Target Prices**: - SF Holding-A: Target price raised from RMB47.10 to RMB56.00 [7] - YTO Express: Target price raised from RMB13.70 to RMB20.40 [28] - Yunda: Target price raised from RMB7.60 to RMB10.40 [40] Financial Estimates - **Revenue and Profit Changes**: - YTO Express's revenue estimates lowered by 2% in 2025, 3% in 2026, and 5% in 2027 due to fierce price competition [24] - Yunda's net profit estimates raised by 7% in 2025, 12% in 2026, and 10% in 2027 due to improved ASP and cost management [36] - **Cost Management**: Expected unit costs to drop by 3-5% year-on-year in 2025 due to better scale effects [4] Risks and Challenges - **Price Competition**: Intensifying price competition poses a risk to ASP and could negatively impact revenue and earnings [22] - **Capacity Expansion**: Slower-than-expected capacity expansion could limit competitiveness and share price growth [22] - **Goodwill Impairment**: Risks associated with goodwill impairment could affect earnings negatively [22] Conclusion - The express delivery sector in China is poised for a recovery supported by policy changes and price adjustments, with major players like YTO and Yunda expected to benefit significantly. However, risks related to competition and operational efficiency remain critical factors to monitor.

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the express delivery industry, indicating a potential for profit elasticity among major listed companies such as Shentong Express, YTO Express, Zhongtong Express, and Yunda Express [5][24]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry is undergoing a "de-involution" process, driven by regulatory measures from the State Post Bureau and the active participation of express companies. This initiative aims to combat low-price competition and enhance service quality [1][16]. - The initial results of this de-involution are evident in Guangdong, where the minimum express delivery price has been raised by 0.4 yuan per ticket, with an average price exceeding 1.4 yuan. This price adjustment is expected to have a ripple effect across other regions [2][18]. - The de-involution effect is anticipated to be sustained due to seasonal price increases and new social security regulations, which will likely lead to increased operational costs for delivery personnel [3][20]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Framework - The de-involution framework emphasizes a dual approach where express companies take the lead, supported by regulatory oversight from postal authorities. This was reinforced by a series of meetings and policy announcements aimed at curbing irrational price competition [1][16][19]. Initial Outcomes - Guangdong's price increase serves as a model for other regions, with expectations that provinces like Zhejiang and Fujian will follow suit. The region has maintained a significant share of national express delivery volume, ranging from 24.33% to 27.25% since 2017 [2][19]. Profitability Analysis - The express delivery companies are characterized by low per-ticket profits but high business volumes, leading to significant profit elasticity. For instance, Zhongtong, YTO, Shentong, and Yunda are projected to handle 340.10 billion, 265.73 billion, 227.29 billion, and 237.83 billion packages respectively by the end of 2024, with per-ticket profits of 0.30, 0.15, 0.05, and 0.08 yuan [4][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with high profit elasticity, particularly Shentong Express, YTO Express, Zhongtong Express, Yunda Express, and Jitu Express, which have unique advantages in overseas operations [5][25].