Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated a robust performance with a revenue of 18.586 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.53%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.724 billion yuan, up 9.03% year-on-year [1][2] - The company has shown a strong competitive advantage in the industry, with significant growth in both production and sales volumes, particularly in chicken meat sales and processed meat products [4][6] - The company has successfully enhanced its breeding stock performance and market share through the development of its proprietary breeding source, "Shenze 901plus," which has seen over 30% growth in sales compared to the previous year [4][6] Financial Performance - The company achieved a quarterly growth in performance throughout 2024, indicating a consistent improvement in its operational efficiency [4] - The forecast for total revenue from 2024 to 2026 is adjusted to 20.889 billion yuan, 23.106 billion yuan, and 25.706 billion yuan respectively, with net profits projected at 1.076 billion yuan, 1.583 billion yuan, and 1.946 billion yuan [4][6] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to grow from 0.58 yuan in 2024 to 1.56 yuan in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [6][7] Market Performance - The company's stock has outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a 1-month performance of +20.0%, 3-month performance of +21.5%, and a 12-month performance of +16.1% [3] - The current stock price is 17.12 yuan, with a 52-week price range of 10.49 to 17.98 yuan [3] Business Strategy - The company has established a comprehensive multi-channel business system covering B-end, C-end, and F-end markets, leading to a 23.40% year-on-year increase in C-end business revenue [4] - The company has focused on enhancing its export business, achieving a 17.29% year-on-year growth in exports [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown continuous improvement in operational efficiency, with profits expected to expand quarterly in 2024. The revenue for 2024 is projected at 18.586 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.53%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 724 million yuan, up 9.03% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2024 is anticipated to show a revenue of 4.823 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.78% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 342 million yuan, marking a return to profitability [4][5] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2 yuan for every 10 shares, totaling 247 million yuan [4] - Short-term outlook indicates potential price increases for domestic chicken due to overseas avian influenza affecting imports, while long-term projections suggest that sufficient domestic supply may pressure chicken prices [4] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025 to 1.091 billion yuan, 2026 to 1.247 billion yuan, and introduced a new forecast for 2027 at 1.389 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.88, 1.00, and 1.12 yuan respectively [4] Summary by Sections Poultry Breeding and Processing Business - The poultry breeding and processing sector reported revenue of 10.356 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 1.53% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 5.70%, down 0.62 percentage points. Despite a challenging industry backdrop, the company has improved the production performance of breeding chickens, leading to a reduction in comprehensive breeding costs. The first quarter of 2025 is expected to see a 10% year-on-year decrease in comprehensive meat production costs [5] - The company achieved the highest market share in chicken exports to Japan and successfully entered several new overseas markets, generating export revenue of 638 million yuan, an increase of 18.78% year-on-year [5] Food Processing Business - The food processing segment achieved revenue of 7.010 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.63%, with a gross margin of 19.61%, up 0.94 percentage points. The production volume of deep-processed meat products reached 314,900 tons, up 3.08% year-on-year, and sales volume increased by 6.32% year-on-year [6] - The company's retail business in the consumer sector is expected to see revenue growth exceeding 30% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025 [6] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The company's financial metrics indicate a revenue forecast of 20.442 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 10.0%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at 1.091 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 50.6% year-on-year [7] - The gross margin is expected to improve to 11.4% in 2025, with a net margin of 5.3% [7] - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to decrease from 19.5 in 2025 to 15.3 in 2027, indicating a favorable valuation trend [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown continuous improvement in operational efficiency, with profit scale expected to expand quarterly in 2024. The revenue for 2024 is projected at 18.586 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.53%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 724 million yuan, up 9.03% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2024 is anticipated to show a revenue of 4.823 billion yuan, a 5.78% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 342 million yuan, marking a return to profitability [4][5] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2 yuan for every 10 shares, totaling 247 million yuan [4] - Short-term outlook for 2025 indicates potential increases in domestic chicken prices due to overseas avian influenza affecting imports, while long-term projections suggest that sufficient domestic supply may pressure chicken prices [4] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025 to 1.091 billion yuan, 2026 to 1.247 billion yuan, and introduced a forecast for 2027 at 1.389 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.88, 1.00, and 1.12 yuan respectively [4] Summary by Sections Poultry Breeding and Processing Business - The poultry breeding and processing industry reported revenue of 10.356 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 1.53% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 5.70%, down 0.62 percentage points. Despite industry challenges, the company has improved breeding performance, leading to a projected 10% reduction in comprehensive meat production costs for Q1 2025. The company achieved the largest share of chicken exports to Japan, with export revenue of 638 million yuan, an increase of 18.78% year-on-year [5] Food Processing Business - The food processing sector generated revenue of 7.010 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.63%, with a gross margin of 19.61%, up 0.94 percentage points. The production volume of deep-processed meat products reached 314,900 tons, a 3.08% increase, while sales volume rose by 6.32% to 316,900 tons. The company's retail business is expected to see over 30% growth in Q1 2025 [6] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The company’s financial metrics for 2023A to 2027E show a steady increase in revenue and net profit. Revenue is expected to grow from 18.487 billion yuan in 2023 to 22.028 billion yuan in 2027, while net profit is projected to rise from 664 million yuan to 1.389 billion yuan over the same period. The gross margin is anticipated to improve from 10.6% to 12.1% [7][10]

这是新消费智库第 2 6 1 6 期文章 新消费导读 1.Crocs携手Marimek ko推出首款合作系列 2.怡宝魔力运动饮料1L装新品全国上市 3. Inner Brightnes s推出Ak kermans ia益生菌补充剂 4.必胜客披萨有蛇出没 5.承德露露跨界推出露露草本「养生饮」 6.圣农发展拟11.26亿元收购太阳谷剩余54%股权 7.达能拟在德国爱他美工厂进行重大投资 8.美国拟成立Ti kTok美国独立公司，亚马逊等多方竞购 9.联合利华宣布收购Wi ld 10.Safi lo收购眼镜品牌Blender s多数股权 11.真维斯关闭澳洲所有门店 12.ZITA TAN发布2025秋冬系列 13.上美股份AI智能化妆品无人车间已正式投产 14.GymNation打造全球首个于健身房中的酒店 15.AUTEUR发布「星际漫游」系列 新消费 1.Crocs携手Marimek ko推出首款合作系列 怡宝官宣魔力运动饮料1L装新品全国上市。新品特别添加电解质、氨基酸、GLU葡萄糖和维生素B6，助力身体代谢、提供能量，1L大容量， 为不同流汗场景提供补充。（食业头条） 3. Inner Bright ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][7] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 18.585 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.53%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 724 million yuan, up 9.03% year-on-year [4][8] - The poultry farming and slaughtering business saw a revenue of 10.356 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.53% year-on-year, primarily due to falling chicken prices, with an average selling price of 8,800 yuan per ton, down 15% year-on-year [4][5] - The company plans to invest 1.126 billion yuan to acquire a 54% stake in Anhui Taiyanggu Food Technology Co., which is expected to significantly increase its breeding and slaughtering capacity [4][5] - The company has developed a new breeding stock combination, "Shenze 901plus," which has improved performance metrics and aims to capture 40% of the domestic market share while expanding internationally [5][6] - The meat product business has seen a sales volume of 316,900 tons, a growth of 6.32% year-on-year, with revenue reaching 7.009 billion yuan, up 9.63% year-on-year [6][7] Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 1.411 billion yuan, 1.768 billion yuan, and 2.038 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.14 yuan, 1.42 yuan, and 1.64 yuan [7][8] - The projected PE ratios for the next three years are 14.78, 11.80, and 10.24 [7][8] - The company is expected to maintain a steady growth trajectory with a revenue growth rate of 11.82% in 2025 and 15.53% in 2026 [8][11]

买入/维持 圣农发展(002299) 目标价: 昨收盘:16.78 年报点评：亚洲白鸡产业链一体化经营龙头，盈利稳健增长 ◼ 走势比较 (40%) (28%) (16%) (4%) 8% 20% 24/4/15 24/6/26 24/9/6 24/11/17 25/1/28 25/4/10 ◼ 股票数据 2025 年 04 月 14 日 公司点评 | 总股本/流通(亿股) | 12.43/12.43 | | --- | --- | | 总市值/流通(亿元) | 208.64/208.63 | | 12 个月内最高/最低价 | 17.98/10.49 | | (元) | | 相关研究报告 <<年报点评：家禽养殖业务产能持续 提升，深加工业务快速增长>>-- 2023-03-30 <<季报点评：量增价涨驱动盈利持续 增长，推荐买入>>--2022-10-28 <<圣农发展：全产业链核心优势&产 业景气度持续，业绩高速增长>>-- 2020-03-29 证券分析师：程晓东 电话：010-88321761 E-MAIL：chengxd@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190511050002 事件：公司近日发 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights the weak fluctuation of pig prices, with expectations of a downward trend in the short term and a long-term weak operation in 2025 due to increased supply and weak demand [4][14] - The poultry sector may see price improvements due to the impact of tariffs and a shortage of quality breeding stock caused by avian influenza [5][28] - The animal health sector is expected to benefit from improved downstream demand and external expansion opportunities, with rising prices for key products like Tylosin [6][41] - The planting sector is experiencing price fluctuations for major grains, with a focus on the commercialization of genetically modified seeds [8][46] - The feed sector is seeing a decline in prices, with recommendations for companies like Haida Group [8][49] - The pet market continues to grow rapidly, with strong performance from domestic brands and recommendations for companies in the pet food and medical sectors [8][54][57] Summary by Sections Pig Industry - Pig prices are expected to adjust slightly, with a forecast of weak performance in 2025 due to increased supply [4][14] - As of April 10, 2025, the average price of live pigs is 14.6 CNY/kg, with no change from the previous week [14] Poultry Industry - The poultry sector may see price increases due to tariff impacts and a lack of quality breeding stock [5][28] - The average price of broiler chickens is 3.75 CNY/lb, reflecting a weekly increase [28] Animal Health - The animal health sector is experiencing improved profitability, with Tylosin prices rising significantly [6][41] - The report suggests focusing on companies with expected external expansion, such as Reap Bio [6] Planting Sector - Major grain prices are fluctuating, with corn priced at 2199 CNY/ton and wheat at 2422 CNY/ton [8][46] - The report recommends companies involved in genetically modified seed development [8] Feed Sector - Feed prices are declining, with pig feed at 3.35 CNY/kg [8][49] - The report suggests focusing on companies like Haida Group due to expected industry consolidation [8] Pet Industry - The pet market is projected to reach 300.2 billion CNY in 2024, with a growth rate of 7.5% [8][54] - Recommendations include companies like Guobao Pet and Zhongchong Co., which are experiencing significant growth [8][57]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the agricultural sector is expected to outperform the overall market [2][5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the strategic value of the agricultural sector under the backdrop of unexpected tariff policies and the "internal circulation + self-control" approach, highlighting investment opportunities across various sub-sectors [5][3]. - The report notes a significant increase in online sales of pet food, with March sales reaching 2.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23% and a month-on-month increase of 44% [3][5]. Summary by Relevant Sections Agricultural Sector Performance - The Shenwan Agricultural Index rose by 3.3%, while the CSI 300 Index fell by 2.9% during the week [3][4]. - Top five gainers included Shen Nong Technology (35.7%), Xin Sai Co. (32.2%), Jin He Biological (28.8%), Wanxiang De Nong (24.9%), and Bei Da Huang (19.7%) [4][12]. Livestock Farming - Swine prices are expected to fluctuate, with the average price for external three yuan pigs at 14.80 yuan/kg, a week-on-week increase of 1.4% [3][13]. - The report anticipates a potential decline in pig prices due to increased supply in the second quarter, suggesting a left-side investment opportunity in the sector [3][5]. Poultry Farming - The price of white chicken chicks continues to weaken, with the average price at 2.54 yuan/chick, a week-on-week decrease of 7.64% [3][5]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring consumer demand, particularly in the restaurant and catering sectors, as a key factor affecting the poultry market [3][5]. Pet Food Industry - The report indicates that domestic brands are likely to gain market share as the cost-effectiveness of imported pet food declines [5][3]. - Key companies in the pet food sector, such as Guai Bao Pet and Zhong Chong Co., reported significant growth in sales, with Guai Bao Pet achieving a 47% year-on-year increase in March [3][5]. Seed Industry - The necessity for self-control in the seed industry is increasingly evident, with a push towards biological breeding and accelerated industrialization [5][3]. - The report recommends focusing on companies like Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong in the seed sector [5][3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the potential for increased planting area due to the approval of the third batch of genetically modified crops, which includes 97 corn and 2 soybean varieties [5][15] - The report indicates that domestic companies focusing on high-yield genetically modified soybeans may benefit from reduced overseas supply due to trade tensions between China and the U.S. [6][17] - The report emphasizes the recovery potential in the pig farming sector, with rising prices supported by increased demand and reduced imports of meat [20][26] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The third batch of genetically modified crops has been approved, which is expected to increase the planting area significantly, with projections suggesting that the planting area for genetically modified corn may exceed 5 million acres by 2025 [5][15] - The approval of genetically modified crops aligns with national policies aimed at strengthening food security and promoting agricultural innovation [15][35] Weekly Viewpoint - The pig farming sector shows low valuation and recovery potential, with recommendations for companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [26] - The pet food market is expected to grow significantly, driven by rising consumer spending and domestic brands gaining market share [29] Market Performance - The agriculture index outperformed the market by 6.38 percentage points, with significant gains in the planting sector [30][33] - Key stocks such as Western Animal Husbandry and Shennong Technology saw substantial increases in their share prices [34] Price Tracking - As of April 11, the average price of live pigs was 14.66 yuan/kg, reflecting a slight increase from the previous week [37] - The average price of beef also saw an increase, reaching 67.21 yuan/kg [43]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [12] Core Views - The pig sector shows a narrowing increase in breeding sows, indicating a need to focus on the expectation gap in the pig market [1][3] - The poultry sector, particularly broilers, is experiencing low valuations and potential elasticity in prices due to supply and demand dynamics [19][21] - The planting sector emphasizes food security and the strategic importance of biological breeding, with a focus on self-sufficiency [23] - The pet sector is witnessing a rise in domestic brands and exports, indicating a robust growth trajectory [24][25] - The feed sector is recommended for investment due to its fundamental turning point and relatively low valuations [26] Summary by Sections Pig Sector - As of April 12, the average price of pigs in China is 14.70 CNY/kg, remaining stable week-on-week, with a profit of approximately 164 CNY per head for self-breeding farms [1][16] - The supply side shows a slight decrease in average weight of pigs slaughtered, while demand remains weak, leading to a potential seasonal decline in prices [2][17] - The sector is characterized by low valuations, with major companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs trading at historical lows [3][18] Poultry Sector - The broiler market faces uncertainties due to import restrictions and trade tensions, impacting supply [19][20] - Prices for broiler chicks have increased, with the average price for broiler chicks in Shandong at 3.25 CNY per chick [20] - Investment recommendations include Shengnong Development and Yisheng Livestock, with a focus on the potential for price recovery [20][21] Planting Sector - The report highlights the importance of food security, with significant imports of soybeans, corn, and wheat from the US [23] - The government is pushing for advancements in agricultural technology, particularly in biological breeding [23] - Recommended companies include Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong [23] Pet Sector - The domestic pet brand market is growing rapidly, with sales on Douyin reaching 818 million CNY in March, a year-on-year increase of 24.32% [24] - Exports of pet food are also increasing, with a total of 52,800 tons exported in the first two months of 2025, reflecting a 17.11% year-on-year growth [24][25] - Key companies to watch include Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co [25] Feed Sector - Hai Da Group is highlighted as a key investment opportunity due to improving market conditions in aquaculture feed [26] - The report notes a significant recovery in prices for various aquatic products, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [26][27]