Core Viewpoint - Dahua Jixian maintains a "Buy" rating for Ganfeng Lithium (002460) and raises the target price for H-shares from HKD 78 to HKD 90, while the target price for A-shares is increased from CNY 72 to CNY 80 [1] Financial Projections - Dahua Jixian keeps the net profit forecast for Ganfeng Lithium at CNY 4.07 billion for 2025, based on an expected lithium salt sales volume of 180,000 tons LCE, representing a year-on-year growth of 39% [1] - The estimated net profit for Q4 2025 is CNY 382 million, while the market consensus is CNY 438 million [1] Future Outlook - Due to higher sales projections of 230,000 tons and 270,000 tons LCE for 2026 and 2027 respectively, along with increased average lithium salt prices of CNY 160,000 and CNY 200,000 per ton for 2026 and 2027, Dahua Jixian raises the net profit forecasts for Ganfeng Lithium by 67% and 58% for 2026 and 2027, resulting in projections of CNY 3.21 billion and CNY 5.24 billion respectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - Daiwa Capital Markets maintains a "Buy" rating for Ganfeng Lithium (01772) and raises the target price for H-shares from HKD 78 to HKD 90, while the target price for A-shares is increased from RMB 72 to RMB 80 [1] Financial Projections - The net profit forecast for Ganfeng Lithium in 2025 is maintained at RMB 4.07 billion, based on an expected lithium salt sales volume of 180,000 tons LCE, representing a year-on-year growth of 39% [1] - The estimated net profit for Q4 2025 is projected at RMB 382 million, while the market consensus is RMB 438 million [1] Future Growth Expectations - The sales volume is expected to increase to 230,000 tons LCE in 2026 and 270,000 tons LCE in 2027, along with higher average lithium salt prices of RMB 160,000 and RMB 200,000 per ton for 2026 and 2027, respectively [1] - Consequently, the net profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been raised by 67% and 58%, reaching RMB 3.21 billion and RMB 5.24 billion, respectively [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market has experienced a sharp rise and then a fall, with intensified games between policy disturbances and demand realities. The market is currently in a high - level wide - range oscillation stage, and the core contradiction lies in the game between the expected supply contraction caused by policy disturbances on the supply side and the weak demand reality of new - energy vehicles downstream. It is expected that the lithium carbonate price will enter a high - level oscillation and consolidation stage in the next 1 - 2 weeks [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Salt Market Introduction - **Price Changes**: The battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price increased by 12.33% to 156,250 yuan/ton this week. The futures price of lithium carbonate rose 1.94% to 146,200 yuan/ton. The spot prices of lithium hydroxide also had significant increases, with the price of electric - carbon (coarse particles) rising 14.02% to 150,500 yuan/ton, electric - carbon (fine powder) rising 13.48% to 155,700 yuan/ton, and industrial - carbon rising 14.60% to 145,200 yuan/ton [2][4]. - **Premium Changes**: The premium of different raw materials and enterprises has changed to varying degrees. For example, the premium of spodumene raw materials increased by 100 yuan, and the premium of Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd. increased by 200 yuan [7]. Lithium Salt Fundamentals - **Supply**: The domestic lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate remained at a high level of 87.14% with no week - on - week change. The supply side is mainly affected by news such as overseas mining rights policies and domestic environmental protection actions, and there is an expected long - term supply contraction. The production of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide in China and their production in different regions and from different raw materials are also involved in the report, but specific data are not detailed here [2]. - **Demand**: Downstream demand is differentiated. The production start - up rate of energy - storage cells has increased, but the new - energy vehicle sales data in early January decreased significantly year - on - year. The production schedule of cathode material factories in January is expected to decline month - on - month, and procurement is mainly for rigid demand [2]. - **Import and Export**: The salable inventory of port lithium ore traders decreased by 4.83% to 13.8 tons week - on - week, indicating a tight supply of imported raw materials. The freight cost of some routes increased slightly, such as the Nigeria route, which increased by 6.67% week - on - week [2][27]. - **Inventory**: The exchange warehouse receipt inventory increased by 8.27% to 27,458 lots, with significant increases in warehouses such as Jiangsu Benniu Port and Shanghai Xiangyu Sichuan Warehouse, indicating that spot goods are flowing into the futures market and inventory pressure has increased [2][40]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost of externally purchased lithium concentrate increased by 3.1% to 158,106 yuan/ton, higher than the futures closing price. The production profit decreased by 86.98% to - 1,856 yuan/ton, showing the effect of cost support [2]. Lithium - Battery Fundamentals - **Market and Supply of Cathode Materials**: The report involves the market and supply of cathode materials, including production volume and price, but specific data are not detailed [44][46]. - **Supply of Electrolytes**: The price and production volume of electrolytes are also mentioned, but specific data are not detailed [48]. - **Demand for Cathode Materials**: The consumption of cathode materials is involved, but specific data are not detailed [50]. - **Import and Export of Lithium - Battery Materials and Batteries**: The import and export of lithium - battery materials and batteries are mentioned, but specific data are not detailed [52][54]. - **Cost and Profit of Ternary Materials**: The cost and profit of ternary materials are involved, but specific data are not detailed [56]. - **Lithium - Battery Recycling**: Lithium - battery recycling is mentioned, but specific data are not detailed [58]. - **New - Energy Vehicle Production and Sales**: The production and sales of new - energy vehicles and other important data are involved, but specific data are not detailed [60][62].

中化新网讯 近日，新余市委常委、统战部部长张志凤专程来到江西赣锋锂业集团股份有限公司，为该 集团所属赣锋锂电颁发"全国就业与社会保障先进民营企业"荣誉证书和奖牌，表彰其在扩容高质量就业 岗位、保障员工合法权益、强化技能人才培育等方面的突出成效。 目前，该公司已为社会提供了上万个稳定的就业岗位;同时积极构建平等、开放的就业环境，持续完善 多元的"薪酬+福利+关怀"体系，全面提升员工福祉。 此外，该公司还建立"师带徒"培养模式和内部培训线上平台，覆盖从一线技术员工、研发工程师到管理 骨干与技能专家的全岗位序列，确保每一位员工都实现与企业共同成长。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The colored metal ETF (512400) is experiencing significant growth, driven by rising prices in precious and industrial metals, with expectations for continued upward momentum in the sector due to various macroeconomic factors [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 26, 2026, the colored metal ETF (512400) increased by 4.62%, with a trading volume of 1.108 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 2.8% [1]. - The index tracking the colored metal sector, the Zhongzheng Shenwan Colored Metal Index, saw notable gains in individual stocks, including silver rising by 10.03%, Hunan Gold by 10.01%, and Xingye Silver Tin by 9.99% [1]. - The colored metal sector has attracted significant investment, with over 36 billion yuan net inflow into colored metal-themed ETFs (excluding gold) this year, bringing the total scale to over 100 billion yuan [2]. Group 2: Price Trends and Predictions - On January 26, spot gold prices surpassed $5,080 per ounce, marking a new high with an intraday increase of over 2%, while spot silver rose over 3% to reach $106.83 per ounce [2]. - Historical patterns suggest that gold prices may increase between 10% and 35% in 2026, influenced by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, instability in the US dollar, midterm elections, and geopolitical uncertainties [2]. - The recent surge in metals such as gold, silver, tin, and lithium indicates a potential bull market for colored metals, with ongoing valuation adjustments lagging behind commodity price increases [2]. Group 3: Investment Sentiment and Strategies - Fund companies and investors are increasingly focusing on the colored metal sector, with public funds significantly increasing their positions in this industry by the fourth quarter of 2025 [2]. - Current market narratives driving global asset performance include the weakening of the US dollar credit cycle, the formation of a new monetary system anchored by gold pricing, and the reconfiguration of global supply chains [3]. - The colored metal ETF (512400) closely tracks the Zhongzheng Shenwan Colored Metal Index, which comprises 50 listed companies in the colored metal and non-metal materials sectors, reflecting the overall performance of this industry [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Guanfeng Lithium's net profit forecast for 2025 remains at 4.07 billion yuan, based on an expected lithium salt sales volume of 180,000 tons LCE, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 39% [1] - The estimated net profit for Q4 2025 is projected to be 382 million yuan, while the market consensus is 438 million yuan [1] - The report anticipates higher sales volumes for 2026 and 2027, with projections of 230,000 tons and 270,000 tons LCE respectively, along with increased average lithium salt prices of 160,000 yuan and 200,000 yuan per ton for 2026 and 2027 [1] Group 2 - The profit forecasts for Guanfeng Lithium for 2026 and 2027 have been raised by 67% and 58% respectively, now estimated at 3.21 billion yuan and 5.24 billion yuan [1] - The rating for Guanfeng Lithium is maintained at "Buy," with the target price for H-shares increased from 78 HKD to 90 HKD, and for A-shares from 72 yuan to 80 yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the performance and strategic adjustments of the Jiashi New Energy Materials Stock A Fund, indicating a positive growth trajectory and a focus on resource-oriented upstream assets in the new energy sector [2][3]. Fund Performance - The fund reported a profit of 58.44 million yuan in Q4 2025, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.0539 yuan [2]. - The net asset value (NAV) growth rate for the fund was 2.04% during the reporting period, with a total fund size of 2.855 billion yuan as of the end of Q4 [2][15]. - As of January 22, the fund's one-year compounded NAV growth rate reached 71.59%, ranking 4th among comparable funds [3]. Comparative Performance - Over the past three months, the fund's compounded NAV growth rate was 15.47%, ranking 11th out of 39 comparable funds [3]. - The fund's six-month compounded NAV growth rate was 57.48%, placing it 3rd among its peers [3]. - The fund's three-year Sharpe ratio was 0.5367, ranking 12th out of 32 comparable funds [8]. Risk and Exposure - The fund's maximum drawdown over the past three years was 55.48%, ranking 28th out of 32 comparable funds, with the largest quarterly drawdown occurring in Q3 2022 at 24.88% [9]. - The average stock position over the past three years was 91.63%, higher than the industry average of 87.73%, with a peak position of 94.62% at the end of 2023 [12]. Holdings and Strategy - The fund has a high concentration of holdings, with stable stock targets. As of Q4 2025, the top ten holdings included companies like CATL, Salt Lake Potash, and Huayou Cobalt [19]. - The fund management indicated a strategic shift towards increasing exposure to upstream assets related to lithium carbonate, cobalt, and nickel, in response to macroeconomic and market conditions [2].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - Short-term raw material supply tightness is expected to support nickel prices, with LME nickel spot price reaching $18,630 per ton, up 5.70% from January 16 [1] - The cobalt market is anticipated to see continued price increases due to structural supply tightness, with electrolytic cobalt priced at 438,000 yuan per ton, down 3.74% from January 16 [2][5] - Domestic antimony supply remains tight, providing price support, with antimony ingot prices at 160,500 yuan per ton [6] - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to continue rising, with a market average of 171,100 yuan per ton, up 8.36% from January 16 [8][19] - Supply uncertainties in the rare earth market are expected to support prices, with significant global supply concentration in China [10][20] - Tin prices are supported by overseas supply uncertainties, with LME tin prices at $54,200 per ton, up 9.66% from January 16 [11][21] - Tungsten market supply-demand imbalance is notable, with white tungsten concentrate prices at 535,500 yuan per ton, up 5.93% from January 16 [13][22] - Uranium supply tightness is expected to persist, with global uranium prices at $63.51 per pound [14][15] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry Update - Nickel prices are supported by supply constraints, with Indonesia's nickel mining production quota expected to be reduced to 250-260 million tons [1][16] - Cobalt supply is projected to tighten further, with Congo's export quotas confirmed to extend into 2026 [2][17] Antimony Industry Update - Antimony supply remains tight, with domestic prices expected to rise due to export restrictions and seasonal supply issues [6][18] Lithium Industry Update - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain strong due to demand support and supply uncertainties, particularly regarding the recovery of key lithium mines [8][19] Rare Earth Industry Update - The rare earth market is facing supply tightening due to export bans and geopolitical factors, with China maintaining a dominant position [10][20] Tin Industry Update - Tin prices are supported by uncertainties in overseas supply, particularly from Myanmar and Congo [11][21] Tungsten Industry Update - The tungsten market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with prices expected to rise due to limited new supply [13][22] Uranium Industry Update - Uranium prices are supported by ongoing supply tightness and geopolitical factors affecting production [14][15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights that copper prices are experiencing high-level fluctuations amidst inventory accumulation, with short-term price adjustments expected to be limited due to the financial attributes of copper supported by rising gold prices. The supply-demand balance for copper may shift from tight equilibrium to shortage in the medium to long term, driven by insufficient capital expenditure in copper mines and frequent supply disruptions. The report suggests monitoring companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jiangxi Copper, and others [5] - For aluminum, the report notes that both alumina and aluminum prices are under pressure due to high inventory levels. The short-term outlook for aluminum prices is expected to remain stable amidst high demand, particularly in the air conditioning and consumer goods sectors [5] - Lithium demand remains strong despite seasonal trends, with lithium carbonate prices entering an upward cycle driven by supply-demand reversal. The report recommends focusing on companies with high self-sufficiency in lithium resources [5] - Cobalt prices are expected to continue rising due to tight raw material supply, with the report suggesting companies like Huayou Cobalt and others for investment [5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report provides insights into macroeconomic indicators, including the U.S. core PCE price index and unemployment claims, which align with expectations [9] - Key announcements include Zijin Mining's completion of the second phase of the Jilong Copper Mine, significantly increasing its production capacity [10] 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 6.03% compared to the index's 0.84% rise [11] - The report lists the top-performing stocks in the sector, highlighting significant movements in various sub-sectors [11] 3. Valuation Changes - The report notes that the TTM PE for the non-ferrous metals sector is 33.82, with a change of 1.79, while the PB is 4.18, reflecting a significant premium over the broader market [20][23]

- The report focuses on the "CSI Nonferrous Metal Mining Theme Index," which selects 40 listed companies with nonferrous metal mineral reserves as index samples, reflecting the overall performance of nonferrous metal mining-themed listed companies. The index emphasizes upstream mining companies due to their higher profit elasticity and direct benefits from metal price increases. The index is designed to capture the value of upstream resource enterprises and is suitable for investors optimistic about resource cycle trends[27][28][32] - The index adopts a balanced strategy for selecting constituent stocks. It first excludes the bottom 10% of low-liquidity stocks based on daily trading volume, then selects the top three securities from each CSI fourth-level industry based on market capitalization rankings over the past year. If fewer than three securities are available, all are included. Remaining samples are added based on market capitalization rankings until the total reaches 40 stocks. This ensures representation across various resource categories, including gold, aluminum, rare earths, cobalt, lithium, and other strategic metals. The index is adjusted semi-annually in June and December[28][32] - The index's constituent stocks are distributed across four major sectors: industrial metals, energy metals, precious metals, and strategic small metals. This structure aligns with high-demand downstream industries such as new energy, AI computing power, power infrastructure, and semiconductors, enabling precise capture of core investment opportunities across the entire industry chain[7][32][40] - The index's market capitalization distribution is concentrated in large-cap stocks, with 55.61% of the weight allocated to stocks with a market capitalization above 1 trillion RMB. Mid-cap stocks (200-1000 billion RMB) account for 43.09% of the weight, providing effective support. This structure avoids risks associated with small-cap stocks while leveraging the resource barriers of large-cap leaders and capturing growth opportunities in niche sectors[41][46] - The index demonstrates strong performance across various timeframes. Over the past year, its return reached 120.35%, significantly outperforming major broad-based indices like the CSI 300 (24.58%) and the Shanghai Composite Index (27.13%). It also surpassed industry indices such as the SW Nonferrous Metals Index (107.58%). In the medium term, its six-month return was 95.59%, and its three-month return was 28.48%. Short-term performance was equally impressive, with a one-month return of 24.06%[59][62][64]