Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the express delivery industry, indicating a potential for profit elasticity among major listed companies such as Shentong Express, YTO Express, Zhongtong Express, and Yunda Express [5][24]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry is undergoing a "de-involution" process, driven by regulatory measures from the State Post Bureau and the active participation of express companies. This initiative aims to combat low-price competition and enhance service quality [1][16]. - The initial results of this de-involution are evident in Guangdong, where the minimum express delivery price has been raised by 0.4 yuan per ticket, with an average price exceeding 1.4 yuan. This price adjustment is expected to have a ripple effect across other regions [2][18]. - The de-involution effect is anticipated to be sustained due to seasonal price increases and new social security regulations, which will likely lead to increased operational costs for delivery personnel [3][20]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Framework - The de-involution framework emphasizes a dual approach where express companies take the lead, supported by regulatory oversight from postal authorities. This was reinforced by a series of meetings and policy announcements aimed at curbing irrational price competition [1][16][19]. Initial Outcomes - Guangdong's price increase serves as a model for other regions, with expectations that provinces like Zhejiang and Fujian will follow suit. The region has maintained a significant share of national express delivery volume, ranging from 24.33% to 27.25% since 2017 [2][19]. Profitability Analysis - The express delivery companies are characterized by low per-ticket profits but high business volumes, leading to significant profit elasticity. For instance, Zhongtong, YTO, Shentong, and Yunda are projected to handle 340.10 billion, 265.73 billion, 227.29 billion, and 237.83 billion packages respectively by the end of 2024, with per-ticket profits of 0.30, 0.15, 0.05, and 0.08 yuan [4][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with high profit elasticity, particularly Shentong Express, YTO Express, Zhongtong Express, Yunda Express, and Jitu Express, which have unique advantages in overseas operations [5][25].

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is transitioning from a focus on market share to sustainable profitability, as evidenced by recent price increases in response to rising logistics costs and changing market dynamics [4][16]. Price Increase and Its Implications - Starting August 4, express delivery prices in Guangdong Province were raised by 0.4 yuan per ticket, with the average ticket price exceeding 1.4 yuan [5]. - This price increase may significantly impact low-margin businesses that rely on low-cost shipping, potentially erasing their profits [5][6]. - The cost increase will be distributed across the e-commerce ecosystem, affecting sellers and ultimately consumers, who may experience indirect cost increases through higher product prices or reduced service quality [7][9]. Industry Dynamics and Profit Redistribution - The price hike is expected to trigger a reallocation of profits within the industry, particularly affecting franchise operators who have been under financial strain due to previous price wars [9][12]. - The express delivery sector has been characterized by intense competition and price wars, leading to a significant decline in average ticket prices over the past five years, with a 32% drop [13]. Shift in Market Focus - The express delivery industry is moving towards a model that prioritizes profitability over market share, as capital markets are no longer willing to support unprofitable growth strategies [16][18]. - Companies are expected to enhance service quality, operational efficiency, and technological innovation to create competitive advantages, rather than relying solely on low prices [16][17]. Consumer Behavior and Market Changes - Consumers accustomed to "free shipping" may need to adjust to a new reality where shipping costs are more transparent, leading to clearer choices between low-cost, standardized delivery and premium, personalized services [18][21]. - The rise in logistics costs may also accelerate the growth of instant retail, which offers faster delivery options and could capture market share from traditional e-commerce [17][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the express delivery and shipping industries, highlighting potential recovery and investment opportunities [1][3]. Core Insights - The express delivery sector is entering a verification phase for price increases, with key observations on price implementation, regional interactions, merchant actions, demand impacts, and potential social security implications. The report presents three scenarios for the industry: 1) elimination of price disparities leading to profit recovery and significant dividends; 2) continuation of competitive dynamics in many regions, exacerbating industry differentiation; 3) potential for higher-level mergers and acquisitions to optimize supply [3]. - The report emphasizes the opportunity in China Shipbuilding, noting a combined order value of 378.7 billion with a market value-to-order ratio of 0.76, indicating a historically low position. It recommends focusing on the dry bulk shipping sector and highlights the potential for profit transmission from the black chain industry to shipping [3]. - In the oil transportation segment, VLCC rates remained stable at $34,764 per day, with expectations for continued price increases due to tight capacity and active demand. The report also discusses the impact of U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports and the resulting increase in compliant oil demand [3]. - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from the Civil Aviation Administration's "anti-involution" policies, which may optimize competitive structures and enhance airline profitability. The report recommends several airlines based on supply constraints and demand elasticity [3]. - The railway and highway sectors show resilience, with steady growth in freight volumes. The report suggests two main investment themes for the highway sector: traditional high-dividend investments and potential value management catalysts for undervalued stocks [3]. Summary by Sections Express Delivery - The express delivery industry is experiencing a price verification phase, with potential for profit recovery and significant dividends [3]. - Recommended companies include Shentong Express and YTO Express, with a focus on Jitu Express, Zhongtong Express, and Yunda Express [3]. Shipping - China Shipbuilding presents an investment opportunity with a low market value-to-order ratio [3]. - Recommended companies in the dry bulk shipping sector include China Merchants Energy Shipping and Pacific Shipping [3]. Oil Transportation - VLCC rates are stable, with expectations for increases due to tight capacity and demand [3]. - The report notes the impact of U.S. sanctions on oil exports from Iran and Russia, affecting overall oil demand [3]. Aviation - The aviation sector is poised for profitability improvements due to regulatory changes and supply constraints [3]. - Recommended airlines include China Eastern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and China Southern Airlines [3]. Railway and Highway - The railway and highway sectors are showing steady growth in freight volumes, indicating resilience [3]. - Investment themes include high-dividend stocks and undervalued stocks in the highway sector [3].

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is experiencing a rapid response to the "anti-involution" trend, leading to significant price increases and stock performance improvements since early July 2023 [1][11]. Group 1: Market Performance - The express delivery index surged by 17.10% since July, with notable stock price increases: Shentong Express up over 50%, YTO Express up over 30%, and Yunda and Jiacheng International both up over 20% [1]. - Specific stock performance data shows that companies like Jiantong Express and Hengkeda Xin saw price increases of 53.32% and 31.23%, respectively [2]. Group 2: Price Adjustments - Starting August 5, 2023, express delivery prices in Guangdong increased by 0.4 yuan per ticket, raising the average price to over 1.4 yuan [3]. - Major express companies have raised their base prices, with Zhongtong and YTO reaching 1.46 yuan and 1.43 yuan, respectively [3]. - The average express ticket price nationwide dropped from 8.14 yuan to 7.52 yuan in the first half of 2023, a year-on-year decline of 7.7% [5]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - Despite the increase in delivery volume, the express delivery industry faces a severe profit squeeze, with net profits per ticket for major companies like Zhongtong and YTO continuing to decline [9][10]. - The industry is experiencing a "growth without profit" phenomenon, leading to a vicious cycle of price competition and operational challenges [10][11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - If the average ticket price increases by 0.1 yuan, major companies could see significant revenue boosts: Zhongtong by 3.4 billion yuan, YTO by 2.66 billion yuan, and others similarly benefiting [12][13]. - The express delivery market is expected to maintain growth, with projections of 1.758 billion packages in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 21.5% [39]. - The industry may see consolidation through mergers and acquisitions, as evidenced by Shentong's acquisition of Daniao Logistics, which aims to enhance competitiveness [21][43].

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is experiencing a significant rebound due to government policies aimed at curbing excessive competition, leading to a notable increase in stock prices within the sector [3][25]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since early July, the express delivery index has surged by 17.10%, with companies like Shentong Express seeing over 50% increase in stock prices [3][4]. - Major express companies, including YTO Express and Yunda, have also reported substantial stock price increases of over 20% [3][4]. Group 2: Price Adjustments - Starting August 5, express delivery prices in Guangdong were raised by 0.4 yuan per ticket, with average prices exceeding 1.4 yuan [5]. - Other regions, such as Yiwu in Zhejiang, have also initiated price hikes, indicating a potential trend of rising prices across the industry [7][8]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - Despite the increase in delivery volume, the average price per ticket has been declining, with a drop from 8.14 yuan to 7.52 yuan year-on-year, a decrease of 7.7% [15][18]. - The net profit per ticket for major companies like Zhongtong and Yunda has also been decreasing, indicating a challenging profit environment [19][21]. Group 4: Future Outlook - If the average ticket price increases by 0.1 yuan, major companies could see significant revenue boosts, with Zhongtong potentially gaining 3.4 billion yuan [24][26]. - The express delivery industry is expected to continue growing, with projections indicating a record high of 1,750.8 billion packages in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 21.5% [54][55]. Group 5: Structural Changes - The industry is shifting towards managing light and reverse packages due to the rise of e-commerce, which is fragmenting consumption patterns [33][34]. - Recent acquisitions, such as Shentong's purchase of Daniao Logistics, are seen as strategic moves to enhance competitiveness and address market challenges [36][58]. Group 6: Long-term Considerations - The express delivery sector has not yet achieved true capacity clearing despite years of competition, leading to ongoing price wars [51][52]. - Future stability in the market may depend on mergers and acquisitions, as well as the ability of leading companies to maintain pricing power and profitability [56][59].

Core Points - Sichuan Shenxuechuan Enterprise Management Service Co., Ltd. has been established with a registered capital of 5 million RMB, fully owned by Shentong Express Co., Ltd. [1] - The legal representative of the new company is Yu Yongshuai [1] Company Overview - Company Name: Sichuan Shenxuechuan Enterprise Management Service Co., Ltd. [1] - Legal Representative: Yu Yongshuai [1] - Registered Capital: 5 million RMB [1] - Shareholder: Shentong Express Co., Ltd. holds 100% [1] - Business Scope: Includes enterprise management, consulting services, financial consulting, information technology consulting, advertising design and agency, market planning, and non-residential real estate leasing [1] - Business Type: Limited liability company (wholly owned by a legal entity) [1] - Business Duration: Until August 14, 2025, with no fixed term thereafter [1] - Registration Authority: Neijiang City Dongxing District Market Supervision Administration [1]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the express delivery industry, suggesting a potential recovery in pricing and profitability, with specific recommendations for companies like Shentong Express, YTO Express, and Jitu Express [3][66]. Core Insights - The current market dynamics are characterized by a recovery in express delivery prices, driven by both top-down and bottom-up pressures for price increases, indicating a shift away from intense price competition [3][66]. - The report outlines three scenarios for the future of the industry: 1) elimination of price disparities leading to sustained profit recovery and significant dividends; 2) continuation of competitive dynamics with increased industry fragmentation; 3) potential for higher-level mergers and acquisitions to optimize supply-side dynamics [39][66]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The express delivery sector is experiencing a recovery phase, with significant price increases observed in regions like Guangdong and Yiwu, reflecting a commitment to eliminate price disparities [3][66]. - The report highlights that the express delivery price is a crucial driver of stock performance, with public fund holdings previously at low levels [6][66]. Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include Shentong Express for its high volume growth and profit improvement potential, YTO Express for its clear strategy and digital transformation, and Jitu Express for benefiting from high growth in Southeast Asian e-commerce [66]. - Zhongtong Express is noted for its market share recovery and profit rebound potential, while Yunda Express is recognized for its stable operations and improving network health [66]. Pricing Strategies - The report discusses the complexity of pricing policies in the express delivery sector, emphasizing the need for effective management of pricing strategies to maintain network stability and profitability [17][24]. - It also mentions that the stability of delivery fees is critical for the development of the industry, as it directly impacts the income of delivery personnel and overall service quality [30][32]. Future Outlook - The express delivery industry is expected to evolve towards a model resembling public utilities, with stable profits and cash flows leading to increased dividend payouts [43][66]. - The report suggests that the industry may see a shift from a consumer-driven PE valuation to a dividend yield-based valuation as profitability stabilizes [43][66].

Group 1: Shipping Industry - The oil shipping market is expected to see a recovery in rates due to OPEC+'s decision to increase production, with VLCC freight rates experiencing significant increases [1][21] - The current supply situation is relatively tight, and any marginal changes in demand could have a multiplier effect on freight rates, leading to recommendations for COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy [1][21] - The container shipping sector is facing pressure on profitability due to weakening cargo volumes and ongoing trade risks, with a recommendation to monitor COSCO Shipping Holdings for potential alpha opportunities [1][25] Group 2: Aviation Industry - The domestic passenger flight volume has shown a slight increase, with overall and domestic flight volumes up by 0.6% and 0.5% respectively compared to the previous week, indicating a recovery trend [2][36] - The average ticket price for domestic routes has decreased by 8.7% year-on-year, while the passenger load factor has improved slightly, suggesting a mixed performance in the aviation sector [2][36] - Investment recommendations include China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and Spring Airlines, as the aviation sector is expected to benefit from economic recovery [2][45] Group 3: Express Delivery Industry - The "anti-involution" policy initiated on July 1 aims to reduce competition in the express delivery sector, with price increases already observed in regions like Zhejiang and Guangdong [3][53] - The policy is expected to lead to improved profitability and service quality in the express delivery industry, with a focus on monitoring the execution and sustainability of price increases [3][54] - Recommendations include SF Express, ZTO Express, YTO Express, and Shentong Express, as these companies are likely to benefit from the policy changes and market dynamics [3][66] Group 4: Logistics Sector - The logistics sector is facing challenges due to external economic pressures and internal strategy adjustments, with companies like DeBang Logistics experiencing significant profit declines [79] - Eastern Airlines Logistics is highlighted as a leader in the air cargo market, benefiting from a strong market share and operational efficiencies [79][80] - Investment focus should be on companies that can adapt to the changing market conditions and maintain competitive advantages [79][80]

想要接住流量的，不只是西安 全国物流格局又有新变化。 8月12日，丝路电商班列（西安—乌鲁木齐）开行突破500列。据本地媒体报道，该趟班列较公路运输快5小时左右，能降低10%物流成本。自其去年3月开 行以来，京东、顺丰、极兔等快递公司陆续加入，最高能实现55车满编。 这趟班列有多特殊？从数据上看，它连接的两头，新疆和陕西，已经成为近两年快递业的"增长极"。今年上半年，陕西快递业务量增长48.6%至约15.5亿 件，增速高居全国第一，而新疆也增长35.6%至约2.5亿件，增速位居第五。 | 0 | | 500000 | 10000000 | 1500000 | | 20000000 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 广东 | 2342903.9 | | 17.70 | | | | | | 浙江 | 1614384.3 | 8.4 0 | | | | | | | 江苏 | 755439.2 | | 18.5 . | | | | | | 河北 | 572120.9 | | | | | 38.2-0 | | | 河南 | 542275.4 ...

跟踪1000价值稳健的公募基金包括：华夏中证智选1000价值稳健策略联接A、华夏中证智选1000价值稳 健策略联接C、华夏中证智选1000价值稳健策略ETF。 从指数持仓来看，中证智选1000价值稳健策略指数十大权重分别为：方大特钢（1.22%）、金田股份 （1.16%）、奥士康（1.08%）、申通快递（1.08%）、吉比特（1.03%）、康缘药业（1.01%）、骆驼股 份（0.99%）、宁波华翔（0.98%）、柳药集团（0.98%）、塔牌集团（0.97%）。 从中证智选1000价值稳健策略指数持仓的市场板块来看，深圳证券交易所占比51.69%、上海证券交易 所占比48.31%。 从中证智选1000价值稳健策略指数持仓样本的行业来看，工业占比26.06%、原材料占比17.88%、医药 卫生占比14.26%、可选消费占比12.33%、信息技术占比8.56%、公用事业占比5.08%、通信服务占比 4.50%、主要消费占比4.42%、金融占比3.78%、能源占比1.61%、房地产占比1.54%。 资料显示，指数样本每季度调整一次，样本调整实施时间分别为每年3月、6月、9月和12月的第二个星 期五的下一交易日。权重因 ...