52 周价格区间（元） 6.15-12.66 流通市值（百万） 16,337.90 2024 年 11 月 05 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 祝玉波 S0350523120005 zhouyb01@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 史亚州 S0350124060026 shiyz@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 张晋铭 S0350124040003 zhangjm02@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 单票盈利持续修复，看好业绩弹性 ——申通快递（002468）2024 年三季报点评 事件: 最近一年走势 2024 年 10 月 31 日，申通快递公告 2024 年三季报 经营方面，2024Q1-Q3，申通快递实现营业收入 334.91 亿元，同比增长 14.16%；完成归母净利润 6.52 亿元，同比增长 195.18%；完成扣非归 母净利润 6.39 亿元，同比增长 204.77%。其中 2024Q3，申通快递实现 营业收入 119.22 亿元，同比增长 16.31%；完成归母净利润 2.15 亿元， 上年同期为 0.03 亿元；完成扣非归母净利润 2 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][4][6] Core Views - The company has shown impressive performance in Q3 2024, with revenue reaching 33.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 639 million yuan, up 204.8% [4][6] - The company's market share has rapidly increased to 13.5%, with a year-on-year business volume growth of 27.9% [4][6] - The company is benefiting from an active pricing strategy, with the average express delivery price decreasing by 5.2% year-on-year to approximately 2.01 yuan per package [4][6] - The company is in the third year of its "Three-Year 10 Billion Capacity Enhancement Plan," which is expected to continue optimizing its network and increasing throughput capacity [4][6] Financial Forecasts and Metrics - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 48.95 billion yuan, 55.85 billion yuan, and 62.27 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.6%, 14.1%, and 11.5% [2][7] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 950 million yuan, 1.28 billion yuan, and 1.55 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 178.7%, 35%, and 21% [2][7] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are projected to be 0.62 yuan, 0.84 yuan, and 1.01 yuan, respectively [2][7] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2024 and 2025 is estimated to be 17.5x and 13.0x, respectively [2][7]

Group 1: Business Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a business volume of 161.09 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 30.8%, with a market share of 13.02%, up by 0.87 percentage points [2] - The company's revenue for the first three quarters reached 334.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 14.2%, with third-quarter revenue of 119.2 billion yuan, up 16.3% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters was 6.52 billion yuan, a significant increase of 195.2% year-on-year [2] Group 2: Cost Management - The operating cost for the first three quarters was 315.4 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.0%, with a third-quarter cost of 112.7 billion yuan, up 13.5% [2] - The average cost per piece for express delivery in the third quarter was 1.91 yuan, showing a nearly 7% decrease year-on-year [3] Group 3: Market Trends and Strategies - The online retail sales of physical goods in China increased by 7.9% year-on-year in the first three quarters, contributing to the strong growth of the express delivery sector [1] - The company is focusing on enhancing service quality and optimizing logistics through technology and operational improvements, which is expected to sustain future growth [3] Group 4: Seasonal Performance - During the Double Eleven promotional period, express delivery volume surged, with approximately 19.2 billion packages collected from October 21 to 23, a year-on-year increase of 48.7% [4] - The average price adjustments during peak seasons are expected to stabilize and potentially increase due to rising demand and cost factors [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [17]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant year-on-year revenue growth of 195% in net profit for the first three quarters, with a total revenue of 334.9 billion and a net profit of 6.52 billion, reflecting a 14.2% increase in revenue compared to the previous year [1][2]. - The report highlights a positive cycle of volume, cost, and profit, suggesting that the company is experiencing a recovery phase with improved operational efficiency and profitability [1][6]. - The company achieved a free cash flow of 500 million in 2023, marking the first positive cash flow since 2018, indicating a restoration of its financial health [1]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit**: In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 119.2 billion, a 16.3% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.15 billion, up 7760.9% from the previous year [1][7]. - **Volume Growth**: The company’s business volume growth rate for the first three quarters was 30.8%, outperforming competitors and the industry average [1][7]. - **Earnings Forecast**: The earnings forecast for 2024-2026 has been revised upwards to 9 billion, 14 billion, and 17 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.59, 0.92, and 1.13 [1][2]. Valuation and Target Price - The target price for the company is set at 13.74, representing a 24% upside from the current price of 11.06 [3][1]. - The report anticipates that the company will maintain a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of at least 15 times by 2025, aligning with industry recovery trends [1][2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [2][5]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 33.49 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 14.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 650 million RMB, up 195.2% year-over-year, which met expectations [3]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 11.92 billion RMB, a 16.3% increase year-over-year, with a net profit of 210 million RMB, reflecting a significant increase due to a low base from the previous year [3][4]. - The company continues to implement a price-for-volume strategy, resulting in a 28.0% increase in express delivery volume, totaling 5.88 billion packages [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's gross margin in Q3 was 5.4%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points year-over-year, attributed to improved capacity utilization and cost management [4]. - The net profit margin after deducting non-recurring items increased by approximately 1.2 percentage points to 1.69% in Q3, with a net profit of 200 million RMB, an increase of 210 million RMB year-over-year [4]. Future Outlook - The company has significant profit growth potential, with expectations to increase daily throughput capacity to over 75 million packages by 2024, up from the current average of 64 million [4]. - The report forecasts net profits of 910 million RMB, 1.26 billion RMB, and 1.51 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 168%, 38%, and 20% [5][6]. Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 19, 13, and 11 times respectively [5][6].

申通快递股份有限公司 董事会战略委员会工作规则 第一章 总则 第一条 申通快递股份有限公司(以下简称"公司")为适应战略发展需要,增 强公司核心竞争力,确定公司发展规划,健全投资决策程序,加强决策科学性,提高重 大投资决策的效益和决策的质量, 提高公司可持续发展及环境、社会和公司治理（以 下简称"ESG"）水平及管理能力，完善公司治理结构并致力于承担更多社会责任,根 据《中华人民共和国公司法》《中华人民共和国证券法》《上市公司治理准则》《深圳 证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 1 号——主板上市公司规范运作》和《上市公 司独立董事管理办法》等法律、行政法规、部门规章、规范性文件及《申通快递股 份有限公司章程》(以下简称"《公司章程》")的有关规定, 公司董事会特设立董 事会战略委员会(以下简称"战略委员会"),并制定本规则。 第二条 战略委员会为董事会下设委员会,对董事会负责。主要负责对公司长期 发展战略、重大投资决策和 ESG 战略、议题及风险管理等事项进行研究并提出建议。 第一章 人员组成 第三条 战略委员会由五名董事组成。委员由董事长、二分之一以上独立董事或 全体董事的三分之一提名,并由董事会选举产生。 ...

一、召开会议的基本情况 证券代码：002468 证券简称：申通快递 公告编号：2024-060 申通快递股份有限公司 关于召开 2024 年第二次临时股东大会的通知 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容的真实、准确和完整，不存在虚假记载、误导性 陈述或者重大遗漏。 申通快递股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第六届董事会第五次会议审议通过了《关于召 开 2024 年第二次临时股东大会的议案》，决定公司于 2024 年 11 月 15 日（周五）15 时召开公司 2024 年第二次临时股东大会，现将本次会议的有关事项通知如下： （一）股东大会届次：2024 年第二次临时股东大会 （二）会议召集人：公司董事会 （三）会议召开的合法、合规性：本次股东大会会议召开符合有关法律、行政法规、部门规 章、规范性文件和公司章程的相关规定 （四）现场会议召开时间：2024 年 11 月 15 日（周五）15 时 网络投票时间：2024 年 11 月 15 日。其中： 1、通过深圳证券交易所交易系统进行网络投票的具体时间为2024年11月15日9:15—9:25， 9:30—11:30 和 13:00—15:00； 2、通过深圳证券交 ...

证券代码：002468 证券简称：申通快递 公告编号：2024-057 申通快递股份有限公司 关于变更部分日常关联交易实施主体的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容的真实、准确和完整，不存在虚假记载、误导性 陈述或者重大遗漏。 申通快递股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）分别于2024年8月30日、2024年9月19日召开第 六届董事会第四次会议和2024年第一次临时股东大会，审议通过了《关于调整2024年度日常关联 交易预计的议案》，本次调整后2024年度公司与关联方浙江菜鸟供应链管理有限公司（以下简称 "浙江菜鸟"）、杭州菜鸟供应链管理有限公司（以下简称"杭州菜鸟"）、浙江纬韬物流科技 有限公司（以下简称"浙江纬韬"）、Alibaba Group Holding Limited（阿里巴巴集团控股有限 公司）（以下简称"阿里集团"）、淘天物流科技有限公司（以下简称"淘天科技"）、杭州淘 天供应链有限公司（以下简称"杭州淘天"）发生日常关联交易总额预计为539,000万元。具体内 容详见公司在《中国证券报》《证券日报》《证券时报》《上海证券报》及巨潮资讯网 （www.cninfo.com.cn）上披露的《关于 ...

证券代码：002468 证券简称：申通快递 公告编号：2024-059 申通快递股份有限公司 表决结果：同意票3票，反对票0票，弃权票0票，回避票0票。 经审核，监事会认为公司《2024年第三季度报告》的编制程序符合法律、行政法规和中国证 监会监管规则的规定，报告内容真实、准确、完整地反映了上市公司的实际情况，不存在任何虚 假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏。具体内容详见公司于同日在《中国证券报》《证券日报》《证 券时报》《上海证券报》及巨潮资讯网（www.cninfo.com.cn）上披露的《2024年第三季度报告》 （公告编号：2024-055）。 2、审议通过了《关于拟变更会计师事务所的议案》 表决结果：同意票3票，反对票0票，弃权票0票，回避票0票。 第六届监事会第四次会议决议公告 本公司及监事会全体成员保证公告内容的真实、准确和完整，不存在虚假记载、误导性 陈述或者重大遗漏。 一、监事会会议召开情况 申通快递股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于2024年10月20日以邮件、电话等方式发出召 开第六届监事会第四次会议的通知，会议于2024年10月30日在上海市青浦区重达路58号会议室以 现场结合通讯表决的方 ...

申通快递股份有限公司 董事会议事规则 第一章 总则 第一条 为保障申通快递股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）董事会依法成立、规 范、有效地行使职权，确保董事会能够高效规范运作和科学决策，完善公司治理结构， 根据《中华人民共和国公司法》（以下简称"《公司法》"）、《中华人民共和国证券 法》（以下简称《证券法》）、《上市公司治理准则》《深圳证券交易所股票上市规则》 （以下简称"《上市规则》"）、《深圳证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 1 号—— 主板上市公司规范运作》和《上市公司独立董事管理办法》等有关法律、法规、规范性 文件和《申通快递股份有限公司章程》（以下简称"《公司章程》"）的规定，结合公 司实际情况，制定本规则。 第二条 董事会对股东大会负责。董事会会议是董事会议事的主要形式。董事按规 定参加董事会会议是履行董事职责的基本方式。 第二章 董事会的组成 第三条 董事会是股东大会的执行机构，执行股东大会通过的各项决议，向股东大 会负责并报告工作。 第四条 董事会由七名董事组成，其中，独立董事三名。 董事会设董事长一人，董事长由董事会选举产生，董事长为公司法定代表人。 董事会中兼任公司高级管理人员以及由职工代表 ...