Fixed Income - The forecast for February 2025 predicts new loans of 1 trillion yuan and social financing of 2.5 trillion yuan, with M2 reaching 320.6 trillion yuan and a year-on-year growth of 7.0% [2][10] - The social financing growth rate is expected to be 8.3%, with a potential recovery in the growth rate later in the year [11][12] - The report anticipates a stable economic outlook for 2025, with a possible small rebound in 2026, and predicts the 10Y/30Y government bond yields to peak at 1.9%/2.2% in 2025 [13] Pharmaceutical Industry - Kelun Pharmaceutical (002422.SZ) - Kelun Pharmaceutical is recognized as a successful representative of the transition from generic to innovative drugs, with a cumulative R&D investment of nearly 11.9 billion yuan from 2014 to 2023 [14][15] - The company has entered the global market for innovative drugs, with significant potential for future growth, particularly through its ADC research platform and partnerships with major pharmaceutical companies [16] - The antibiotic intermediate sector is expected to maintain a stable supply-demand balance, while the intravenous infusion market is projected to grow steadily due to aging demographics [17][18] Public Utilities - China Resources Gas (01193.HK) - China Resources Gas is positioned as a leading city gas provider, focusing on projects in first- and second-tier cities, benefiting from its strategic location [21][22] - The company has reduced its reliance on connection services, with growth in comprehensive services and energy solutions supporting its profitability [23] - The report highlights a significant increase in operating cash flow and a low debt ratio, indicating strong financial health and potential for dividend growth [24][25] New Energy - Mingyang Technology (837663.BJ) - Mingyang Technology is identified as a national-level specialized manufacturer in automotive seat components, with an expected net profit growth of 18.66% in 2024 [27][28] - The company is benefiting from the trend of electrification and intelligence in the automotive industry, with a projected increase in the value of seat components [29] - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the assembly business, which is expected to become a significant revenue driver [30][31] New Consumption - Semir Apparel (002563.SZ) - Semir Apparel focuses on casual and children's clothing, with its brands ranking among the top in their respective markets [34][35] - The company is enhancing operational efficiency and product appeal through strategic partnerships and brand collaborations, leading to improved profit margins [35] - The report forecasts steady growth in net profit from 2024 to 2026, supported by a strong market position and multi-brand strategy [36] New Consumption - Bairun Co., Ltd. (002568.SZ) - Bairun Co., Ltd. is a leading player in the ready-to-drink (RTD) beverage market, with a market share exceeding 73% in 2023 [38][39] - The growth of the RTD market is driven by expanding consumer demographics and innovative product offerings [40] - The company is expected to maintain its market leadership and continue to grow its net profit from 2024 to 2026 [41]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its future performance [5][7]. Core Viewpoints - The ready-to-drink (RTD) beverage market in China is experiencing significant growth, with the company holding a dominant market position, achieving a market share of 73% in 2023 [6][31]. - The company's product matrix, which includes the "358" series (micro-drunk, refreshing, and strong), effectively targets different consumer demographics and drinking scenarios, enhancing brand recognition and loyalty [10][40]. - The report anticipates steady revenue growth, projecting operating income to reach 41.1 billion yuan by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.6% [5][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Background - The company was founded in 1997, initially focusing on flavor and fragrance development, and has since evolved into a leading player in the RTD beverage sector through strategic acquisitions and product innovation [18][22]. 2. Market Potential - The RTD market in China is projected to continue expanding, with a CAGR of 19% in volume and 18% in sales from 2018 to 2023, indicating substantial growth potential compared to Japan's market [6][31]. - The consumer base is primarily young adults aged 18-34, with a significant female demographic, driven by the appeal of low-alcohol, flavorful beverages [31][36]. 3. Product Marketing and Channel Expansion - The company has established a robust marketing strategy that includes a diverse product range and targeted promotions, which have successfully captured consumer interest and expanded market share [10][40]. - The distribution strategy focuses on offline channels, which accounted for 86% of revenue in 2023, with a steady increase in the number of distributors [48][51]. 4. Financial Projections - The report forecasts the company's net profit to reach 1.035 billion yuan by 2026, with a projected P/E ratio decreasing from 34 to 25 over the same period, reflecting improved profitability [5][7].

证券研究报告 百润股份 (002568 CH) 威士忌进展超预期，期待国威标杆打造 | 华泰研究 | | 更新报告 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 3 月 | 04 日│中国内地 | 饮料 | 公司近期威士忌产品线下经销商签约和铺货进展顺利，公司威士忌产品以更 适合国人的风味、更具性价比的价格，依托预调酒渠道基础，通过品鉴/回 厂游等强化新招商，截至 2 月底，经销商签约进展较快、超出市场预期，看 好酒类消费多元化趋势下公司第二增长曲线打造。预调酒业务春节动销反馈 较好，库存持续去化，25 年新领导上任后团队更加年轻化，将通过数字化 方式优化营销与内部运营。我们看好消费复苏下预调酒业务企稳回升，威士 忌目前招商签约进展顺利，25H2 有望通过营销发力加速消费者培育，打造 国威标杆，打开长期增长空间，维持"买入"评级。 威士忌：招商签约铺市进展顺利，期待营销发力 产品端，我们调研百利得 2 个系列、6 个 sku 目前正处线下铺阶段，包括 50ml、125ml 和 500ml 等规格的玻璃装产品，其中 50ml 产品主要在便利店、 零食、特卖渠道等销售，125ml 可对标江小白等产 ...

Group 1: Company Overview - The company, Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd., is involved in the whiskey business since the barrel filling ceremony in 2021, with the first batch of products meeting international standards for three years of barrel aging [2][3] - The first batch of whiskey products from the Laizhou Distillery was officially announced on November 19, 2024, and the limited edition Genesis whiskey has sold out by the end of December 2024 [2][3] Group 2: Whiskey Production and R&D Advantages - The Laizhou Distillery is one of the few globally that possesses both pot stills and column stills, allowing for the extraction of pure or complex flavors in whiskey [3] - The distillery adheres to the strictest international standards in equipment, processes, and barrel aging, ensuring high-quality whiskey products [3] - The company plans to leverage its existing research on local food and beverage flavor trends to develop whiskey products that cater to Chinese consumer preferences [3] Group 3: Future Plans and Market Strategy - As of the end of 2024, the company has stored over 400,000 barrels of whiskey for aging, with plans to continuously invest in increasing the number of whiskey barrels [3] - The company emphasizes product research and will launch more cost-effective products based on consumer research and market conditions [3] - The strategy includes expanding drinking scenarios and target demographics to maintain rapid industry growth [3]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·非白酒 百润股份（002568） 威士忌起航加速，贡献成长新动能 2025 年 02 月 21 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 2593 | 3264 | 3197 | 3754 | 4349 | | 同比（%） | (0.04) | 25.85 | (2.06) | 17.44 | 15.86 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 521.28 | 809.42 | 719.16 | 826.62 | 1,004.15 | | 同比（%） | (21.74) | 55.28 | (11.15) | 14.94 | 21.48 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.50 | 0.77 | 0.69 | 0.79 | 0.96 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 51.64 | 33.25 | 37.43 | 32.56 | 26.80 | [Table_Tag] ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is accelerating its entry into the whisky market, which is expected to contribute to new growth momentum [1] - The whisky business is progressing well with a diversified channel strategy, and the company anticipates significant revenue contributions from this segment [8] - The pre-mixed beverage segment is still in a growth phase, with potential for further market penetration [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to be 3,264 million in 2023, 3,197 million in 2024, 3,754 million in 2025, and 4,349 million in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.85%, -2.06%, 17.44%, and 15.86% respectively [1][11] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 809 million in 2023, 719 million in 2024, 827 million in 2025, and 1,004 million in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 55.28%, -11.15%, 14.94%, and 21.48% respectively [1][11] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted to be 0.77 in 2023, 0.69 in 2024, 0.79 in 2025, and 0.96 in 2026 [1][11] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 25.65 yuan, with a market capitalization of 26,916.31 million [6] - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to be 33.25 for 2023, 37.43 for 2024, 32.56 for 2025, and 26.80 for 2026 [1][11]

| 证券代码：002568 | 证券简称：百润股份 | 公告编号：2025-001 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：127046 | 债券简称：百润转债 | | 上海百润投资控股集团股份有限公司 百润转债2024年第四季度转股情况公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示： 一、可转换公司债券发行上市概况 （一）可转换公司债券发行情况 经中国证券监督管理委员会《关于核准上海百润投资控股集团股份有限公司 公开发行可转换公司债券的批复》（证监许可[2021]2939号）核准，公司于2021 年9月29日公开发行了1,128万张可转换公司债券，每张面值100元，发行总额 112,800万元。本次发行的可转换公司债券向发行人在股权登记日收市后中国证 券登记结算有限责任公司深圳分公司登记在册的原股东优先配售，原股东优先配 售后余额部分（含原股东放弃优先配售部分）采用网上通过深交所交易系统向社 会公众投资者发行，认购金额不足112,800万元的部分由主承销商包销。 （二）可转换公司债券上市情况 经深交所"深证上[2021]10 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Cautious Accumulate" [16][17][29] Core Views - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 2.88% lower year-on-year, with a significant drop from 49.35% growth in the same period last year [16] - The gross profit margin increased by 3.25 percentage points to 70.11% due to a significant decrease in the cost of pre-mixed drinks [16][17] - Sales expenses rose by 27.48%, leading to a decline in net profit margin by 3.06 percentage points to 23.95% [17] Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price: 27.80 yuan [2] - One-year high/low: 27.89/15.26 yuan [3] - Circulating market value: 199.16 billion yuan [6] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024: 2.388 billion yuan, down 2.88% year-on-year [16] - Gross profit margin: 70.11% [10] - Net profit margin: 23.95% [17] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024, 2025, and 2026: 0.76, 0.80, and 0.86 yuan respectively [17] Financial Ratios - Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2024, 2025, and 2026: 36.71, 34.76, and 32.20 respectively [17][21] - Return on equity (ROE) forecast: 12.62% [11] - Asset-liability ratio: 42.54% [12] Future Projections - Projected revenue growth rates for 2024, 2025, and 2026: 3.60%, 4.50%, and 5.60% respectively [21][24] - Projected net profit for 2024, 2025, and 2026: 795 million, 839 million, and 906 million yuan respectively [21][24]

证券研究报告·公司深度研究·非白酒 百润股份（002568） 前瞻布局威士忌，含苞待放在蛇年 2024 年 12 月 09 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|---------|--------|--------|--------|----------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 2593 | 3264 | 3197 | 3654 | 4124 | | 同比（ % ） | (0.04) | 25.85 | (2.06) | 14.31 | 12.85 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 521.28 | 809.42 | 769.09 | 882.68 | 1,006.94 | | 同比（ % ） | (21.74) | 55.28 | (4.98) | 14.77 | 14.08 | | EPS- 最新摊薄（元 / 股） | 0.50 | 0.77 | 0. ...

证券代码：002568 证券简称：百润股份 公告编号：2024-073 债券代码：127046 债券简称：百润转债 一、解除担保情况 （一）担保情况概述 上海百润投资控股集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）与招商银行股份 有限公司上海分行（以下简称"招行上海分行"）签订了《最高额不可撤销担保 书》（编号：5402230801），为公司之全资子公司上海巴克斯酒业营销有限公司 （以下简称"巴克斯营销"）承担最高限额为 2.5 亿元的连带保证责任；公司与 招行上海分行签订了《最高额不可撤销担保书》（编号：5402231001），为公司 之全资子公司上海锐澳商务咨询有限公司（以下简称"锐澳商务"）承担最高限 额为 2 亿元的连带保证责任。详见 2023 年 9 月 9 日、2023 年 11 月 16 日登载于 《证券时报》《上海证券报》《证券日报》《中国证券报》及巨潮 资讯网 （http://www.cninfo.com.cn）的《百润股份：关于为全资子公司提供担保额度的 进展公告》（公告编号：2023-054、2023-069）。 （二）解除担保情况 1．近日，公司接到锐澳商务、招行上海分行通知，锐澳商务已足额偿 ...