Summary of Conference Call for Jinhe Industrial Industry Overview - China's export of sucralose heavily relies on the U.S. market, accounting for approximately 30% of total exports, with the U.S. market having significant re-export trade capabilities, allowing domestic factories to meet part of the demand [2][3] - The demand structure for sucralose in the U.S. is primarily from the U.S., Europe, and Asia, with an expected apparent consumption of 4,241 tons in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 5% from 2017 to 2024 [2][4] Key Insights - The impact of U.S. tariffs on Chinese sucralose exports is limited due to the small direct exposure of China to the U.S. terminal market, and the likelihood of tariff increases is low [2][5][6] - Short-term tariff increases may reduce exports, but in the long term, this could benefit domestic companies by allowing them to bypass U.S. traders and directly access high-priced overseas demand [2][6] - Jinhe Industrial is positioned in a high-quality sector with an integrated industrial chain, making it a rare investment opportunity. The demand for its microscope products is growing rapidly, and price increases are expected to maintain or exceed market expectations [2][7] Financial Projections - The second phase of the Dingyuan project is expected to extend the platform business, allowing the company to enter new niche markets and potentially become an industry leader [2][7] - Despite a price drop during the industry reshuffle in the first three quarters, the profit forecast for 2024 to 2026 is projected to reach 644 million, 4.377 billion, and 1.515 billion yuan respectively [2][7] - Current stock price corresponds to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 22.13, 10.34, and 9.40 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, maintaining a buy rating [2][7] Risks - Potential risks include the sustainability of price increases for key products and a significant decline in overseas demand [2][7]

主持人好各位投资者大家好我是这张证券石化能源行业的首席分析师任宇超我们过去是从底部推荐了仅稀度超市场预期的三立这堂行业的龙头金河实业那么最近大家会担心关税会不会对金河的三立这堂出口有什么样的影响那我今天来给大家解答我们最近是发布了我们的热点问题系列报告四为什么我们认为关税不会影响金河 二和十月三立热糖的出口那大家会比较关心呢第一个中国出口的三立热糖是对美国的敞口有多大我们认为呢直接出口对美国的敞口大概有30%那么发达地区的出口占比大概是60%美国呢是中国的三立热糖出口的最大的需求国24年的前三个季度对美国的出口占比大概是34% 欧洲和亚洲分别进口大概20%和24%的生育者草那么消费主要是来自于发达国家的 所以这些发达地区呢对于中国的三氯焦糖的出口是大概占了60%三氯焦糖出口呢也是维持了一个比较高的增速我们根据海关数据17年到23年的负荷增速有20%亚洲地区的消费增速呢是增长的明显17年到23年亚洲地区的负荷增速是有31%所以呢这是大家第一个关注的问题中国出口的三氯焦糖对美国的敞口有多大大概是有30% 然后大家会比较关注第二个问题就是美国的三绿洲糖的消费结构是什么样的我们认为美国是存在比较多的三绿洲糖转口的贸易 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 25.2 yuan [5] Core Views - The company's Q3 revenue and net profit showed a recovery, with revenue increasing by 6.0% YoY and 13.54% QoQ, and net profit increasing by 1.2% YoY and 37.51% QoQ [1] - The company's food additives, particularly sucralose, have entered a price increase cycle, with sucralose prices rising by 56.4% from Q3 average prices, which is expected to boost future profitability [2] - The company announced an investment of approximately 2 billion yuan to build a synthetic ammonia project, which is expected to enhance resource utilization and reduce production costs [3] Financial Performance - Q3 gross margin was 19.52%, down 3.92 percentage points YoY, while net margin improved by 1.88 percentage points QoQ to 10.78% [1] - The company's four major food additive products showed mixed price trends, with sucralose and acesulfame prices declining YoY but increasing QoQ, while maltol prices improved both YoY and QoQ [2] - The company's 2024-2026 net profit forecasts have been adjusted to 5.59/10.81/14.19 billion yuan, down from previous estimates of 10.95/13.56 billion yuan for 2024-2025 [3] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow by 17.78% in 2025 and 10.97% in 2026, with net profit growth of 93.44% in 2025 and 31.29% in 2026 [4] - The company's EBITDA is projected to increase from 968.46 million yuan in 2024 to 2,133.03 million yuan in 2026 [4] - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 25.70 in 2024 to 10.12 in 2026, indicating potential undervaluation [4] Industry and Market Position - The company operates in the basic chemicals and chemical products industry, with a focus on food additives and synthetic ammonia production [5] - The company's market capitalization is 14,363.37 million yuan, with a P/B ratio of 1.80 in 2024, expected to decrease to 1.50 by 2026 [4][5] Strategic Investments - The company is investing in a 200,193.91 million yuan project to replace outdated processes with advanced coal gasification technology, aiming to produce 10.18 million tons of liquid ammonia and 20 million tons of ammonium bicarbonate annually [3] - The project is expected to generate annual sales revenue of 94,128.00 million yuan in normal years [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [4][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.04 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 410 million yuan, down 27.4% year-on-year [2][4]. - In Q3 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 1.5 billion yuan, which represents a year-on-year increase of 6.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.5% [2][4]. - The company’s sugar substitute products have shown signs of recovery, with a significant price increase expected in Q4 due to reduced production and inventory [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 410 million yuan, down 27.4% year-on-year, and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of 380 million yuan, down 21.9% year-on-year [2]. - Q3 results showed a net profit of 160 million yuan, up 1.2% year-on-year and up 37.5% quarter-on-quarter [2][4]. Market Trends - The price of sucralose has rebounded from 100,000 yuan per ton on August 27 to 210,000 yuan per ton, indicating a recovery in the industry after a period of price decline [2][3]. - The demand for sugar substitutes remains strong, with Q3 exports of sucralose reaching 5,104 tons, up 20.5% year-on-year and 28.8% quarter-on-quarter [2][3]. Production Capacity and Cost Management - The company is gradually releasing capacity from its second phase of the Dingyuan project, which includes significant production capabilities for various chemical products [4]. - Efforts are being made to reduce costs and improve efficiency, including technological advancements in sucralose production [4]. Future Outlook - The company expects its performance to improve significantly in the coming years, with projected net profits of 830 million yuan, 1.27 billion yuan, and 1.67 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market [4]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 2024 performance met expectations, with a revenue of 4.043 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 1%, and a net profit of 409 million yuan, down 27% year-over-year [4]. - The report highlights a shift in the sweetener industry from market share-driven growth to profit-driven strategies, with price increases for key products like maltol and sucralose [4]. - The company is investing approximately 2 billion yuan in a new ammonia production project, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge [4]. - The report projects a recovery in the company's earnings due to price increases in sweeteners and the optimization of production processes [4]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 20.19%, a decrease of 3.61 percentage points year-over-year, and a net profit margin of 10.12%, down 3.65 percentage points year-over-year [4]. - The projected net profit for 2024 is revised to 673 million yuan, down from a previous estimate of 774 million yuan, with expected earnings per share (EPS) of 1.18 yuan [4][5]. - Revenue is expected to grow to 6.345 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 20% [5]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is a major global producer of sucralose and acesulfame K, with plans to expand its production capacity and improve cost efficiency through technological advancements [4]. - The report notes that the company has a current production capacity of 10,000 tons for maltol and 13,000 tons for sucralose, indicating potential for revenue recovery as prices rise [4]. - The establishment of a bio-synthesis innovation platform is underway, which aims to diversify the company's product offerings and enhance its market position [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [2][6]. Core Views - The company has shown signs of recovery in its performance, particularly in the sweetener segment, with expectations for continued profit rebound due to price increases [2][4]. - The company plans to invest 2 billion RMB in a new gasification project to enhance production efficiency and reduce costs, which is expected to contribute significantly to future revenue [5][6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates in the food and beverage sector, with a current stock price of 22.95 RMB as of November 1, 2024, and a market capitalization of 13.005 billion RMB [1]. - Major shareholders include Anhui Jinrui Investment Group Co., Ltd., holding 43.95% of shares [1]. Recent Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 4.043 billion RMB, a year-over-year decrease of 1%, and a net profit of 409 million RMB, down 27% year-over-year [2]. - In Q3 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 1.504 billion RMB, reflecting a 6% increase year-over-year and a 14% increase quarter-over-quarter [2]. Product Pricing and Market Dynamics - The sweetener market has seen a price recovery after a two-year low, with significant price increases for key products like sucralose and acesulfame potassium [4]. - The average price for sucralose in Q3 was 123,000 RMB per ton, showing a 17% increase from the previous quarter [4]. Future Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 641 million RMB, 796 million RMB, and 964 million RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with expected growth rates of -9%, +24%, and +21% [6]. - The new gasification project is anticipated to generate an annual revenue of 940 million RMB once operational [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][5][11] Core Views - The report indicates that the turning point for sweeteners may be emerging, with a quarter-on-quarter increase in net profit attributable to the parent company in Q3 [2][3] - The company achieved a revenue of 4.043 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.24%, and a net profit of 409 million yuan, down 27.39% year-on-year [2][3] - The report highlights that the prices of key sweeteners have recently increased, suggesting a potential recovery in profitability for the company in the upcoming quarters [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.504 billion yuan, an increase of 6.04% year-on-year and 13.54% quarter-on-quarter [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q3 was 162 million yuan, up 1.17% year-on-year and 37.51% quarter-on-quarter [3] - The operating cash flow for Q3 was 468 million yuan, with a gross profit margin of 19.52%, down 3.93 percentage points year-on-year [3][4] Market Trends - The report notes that the prices of sucralose and acesulfame have recently risen from their lowest points in 2024, indicating a potential improvement in market conditions [3][4] - The company is positioned as a leader in the sweetener industry, with ongoing projects aimed at enhancing production efficiency and reducing costs [4][5] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at 5.441 billion, 6.006 billion, and 6.518 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 705 million, 990 million, and 1.236 billion yuan [5][6] - The report anticipates a recovery in the company's main product prices, which could lead to improved financial performance in the near future [5][6]

股 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 ——2024 年金禾实业三季报点评 沈唯(分析师) 0755-23976795 [table_Authors] shenwei024936@gtjas.com 登记编号 S0880523080006 本报告导读： 公司三季报扣非业绩符合预期，公司三氯蔗糖景气度已明显提升并有望保持中高水 平，维持"增持"评级。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 维持"增持"评级。24Q3 扣非业绩符合预期，维持公司 24-26 年 EPS 分别为 1.24、2.00、2.37 元。参考可比公司估值及考虑公司成长性， 给予 25 年 14.15 倍 PE 估值，维持目标价为 28.33 元。 Q3 业绩超预期，扣非归母净利符合预期。公司 24 年前三季度实现 收入 40.42 亿元，同比-1.24%，实现归母净利润 4.09 亿元，同比27.39%，实现扣非归母净利润 3.77 亿元，同比-21.91%。其中，24Q3 单季度实现收入 15.04 亿，同比+6.04%，环比+13.54%，单季度归母 净利润 1.62 亿，同比+1.17%，环比+37.51%，扣非归母净利润 1. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 31.28 CNY, compared to the current price of 23.25 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company has experienced a price turning point in Q3, with expectations for a performance turnaround in Q4 due to rising product prices and improved demand [2]. - The company's Q3 revenue was 1.504 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.04% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.54% [1][2]. - The core products, including sucralose and aspartame, have seen significant price increases, which are expected to positively impact Q4 performance [2]. - The second phase of the Dingyuan project has started contributing to profits, and new processes are anticipated to further reduce costs [2]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 4.043 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 1.24%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 409 million CNY, down 27.39% year-on-year [1][3]. - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 768 million CNY, 1.048 billion CNY, and 1.266 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 17x, 13x, and 10x [2][3]. - The company’s total revenue is expected to grow from 5.311 billion CNY in 2023 to 6.197 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 16.7% [3][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Jinhe Industrial is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of RMB 25.06 [7]. Core Views - The report indicates that Jinhe Industrial's Q3 net profit increased by 1% year-on-year to RMB 1.6 billion, with a revenue of RMB 1.5 billion, reflecting a 6% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 14% year-on-year increase. The company achieved a total revenue of RMB 4 billion in the first three quarters, down 1% year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 4.1 billion, a decrease of 27% year-on-year [1]. - The report suggests that the demand and cost support for sugar substitutes is expected to recover, maintaining the "Buy" rating [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3, Jinhe Industrial reported a revenue of RMB 1.5 billion, up 6% quarter-on-quarter and 14% year-on-year. The net profit for Q3 was RMB 1.6 billion, reflecting a 1% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 38% increase year-on-year. For the first three quarters, the total revenue was RMB 4 billion, down 1% year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 4.1 billion, a decrease of 27% year-on-year [1][2]. Industry Analysis - The sugar substitute industry is facing supply pressures and inventory reductions overseas, leading to a decline in product prices. The average prices for various sugar substitutes have decreased year-on-year, with specific declines of 31% for sucralose and 28% for acesulfame [2]. - Despite the price declines, Jinhe Industrial has been increasing prices since Q3, with average prices for Q3 showing increases of 22% for sucralose and 6% for maltodextrin [2]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a recovery in the sugar substitute market due to a rebound in domestic demand for sugar-free beverages and the nearing end of inventory reductions overseas. This recovery is expected to be supported by both demand and cost factors [3]. - Jinhe Industrial is also progressing well with its investment projects, including a planned investment of RMB 2 billion for a new synthetic ammonia gasification project, which is expected to reduce production costs [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for Jinhe Industrial's net profit for 2024-2026 is RMB 7.2 billion, RMB 10.2 billion, and RMB 12.6 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 1.26, RMB 1.79, and RMB 2.21. The target price is set at 14 times the PE ratio for 2025, resulting in a target price of RMB 25.06 [5][6].