| 交易日期 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 成交价格 | 成交量 | 成交金额 | 买方营业部 | 卖方营业部 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (元) | (万股/万份) | (万元) | | | | 2025-12-30 | 002714 | 牧原股份 | 49.90 | 375.00 | | 18,712申信建投证券股份 | 国泰海通证券股份 | | | | | | | | 有限公司杭州萧山 | 有限公司杭州新业 | | | | | | | | 市心中路证券营业 | 路第一证券营业部 | | | | | | | | 部 | | 12月30日，牧原股份大宗交易成交375万股，成交额1.87亿元，占当日总成交额的7.4%，成交价49.9 元，较市场收盘价50.89元折价1.95%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The aquaculture sector experienced a rise of 1.15% on December 30, with Jingji Zhino leading the gains, while the overall market showed mixed results with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3965.12, unchanged, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 13604.07, up by 0.49% [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Jingji Zhino (000048) closed at 17.23, up by 5.90%, with a trading volume of 453,500 shares and a transaction value of 766 million yuan [1]. - Other notable performers included: - Shennong Group (605296) at 29.45, up by 2.08% [1]. - Muyuan Foods (002714) at 50.89, up by 1.98% [1]. - Lihua Co. (300761) at 20.78, up by 1.27% [1]. - Wens Foodstuff Group (300498) at 17.12, up by 1.18% [1]. Group 2: Capital Flow - The aquaculture sector saw a net outflow of 21.95 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 153 million yuan [2]. - The capital flow for key stocks included: - Muyuan Foods (002714) had a net inflow of 1.29 billion yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 104 million yuan from retail investors [3]. - Jingji Zhino (000048) experienced a net inflow of 32.34 million yuan from institutional investors and a net inflow of 43.92 million yuan from retail investors [3]. - New Hope (000876) had a net inflow of 11.87 million yuan from institutional investors [3].

Market Overview - In 2025, the A-share market achieved a historic breakthrough driven by enhanced national governance and increased confidence in technology, with major indices significantly elevated and the Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassing 4000 points [3] - The total market capitalization exceeded 100 trillion yuan, with active trading and a clear focus on technology growth [3] - The outlook for 2026 suggests a consolidation phase for the A-share market, characterized by "sideways fluctuations with slight strengthening," supported by positive expectations for national governance and long-term development [3] Sector Strategy - The mid-cap blue-chip stocks are positioned as a stabilizing force in the market, with a shift in risk appetite leading funds from extreme technology and dividend styles to the mid-range, providing opportunities for mid-cap blue chips [4] - The performance of cyclical sectors (non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals) and manufacturing (communications, military) has been validated by the market, suggesting a focus on the long-dormant consumer sector and waiting for new catalysts in technology growth [4] Industry Insights - The pig farming sector is viewed as having significant value due to extremely pessimistic expectations, with recent policies and market dynamics driving capacity reduction, which is expected to enhance long-term performance [5] - The market's pessimism regarding pig prices for 2026 is seen as underestimating inventory and capacity reduction, with historical trends indicating a likely market-driven capacity reduction [5] - The humanoid robot sector is anticipated to see rapid advancements in motion control in 2025, with mass production becoming a key focus in 2026, driven by the evolution of brain models [6] - Companies with strong manufacturing and management capabilities in the components sector are expected to benefit from the future of mass production in humanoid robots [6]

未来，在非洲猪瘟等重大疫病的区域净化、种猪遗传改良的"卡脖子"技术突破、养殖废弃物资源化利用 的前沿探索等方面，两大巨头均有潜力开展更具实质性的联合研发或数据共享，从而降低整个行业的系 统性风险，提升中国生猪产业的核心竞争力。 生猪养殖行业龙头企业多年来不断向外透露出共赢发展的理念。 作为生猪养殖行业的两大巨头，牧原股份与温氏股份近年来在生产规模及养殖技术等方面实现大幅提 升，成为行业践行高质量发展的典范。 2025年接近尾声之际，12月26日至27日，温氏股份副总裁张祥斌一行到访牧原股份，双方团队在种猪与 健康管理、饲料营养、猪场设计与环保等方面坦诚交流分享，在经验互学互鉴中实现了共同提升。 在生猪行业当前大力践行"反内卷"的背景下，此番两家龙头企业的深入交流，无疑传递出了养殖企业正 从过往以规模扩张和价格竞争为主导的"内卷"泥潭中抽身，积极探索以开放协同、技术共享、生态共建 为特征的"竞合"新路径，为破局"猪周期"困局、构筑长期健康发展的产业新生态提供了关键范本。 据了解，本次交流中双方已凝聚了一个关键共识，即生猪养殖行业当下的核心矛盾已非简单的市场份额 之争，而是如何共同应对生产效率瓶颈、资源环境约束与 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for all recommended stocks in the consumer sector [11][12][13][14][16][17][21][22]. Core Insights - The report highlights nine advantageous sectors within the consumer industry, including agriculture, retail, social services, automotive, textiles, light industry, food, home appliances, and pharmaceuticals, with key stock recommendations for January 2026 [4][7]. - The report emphasizes the expected growth and profitability of the recommended companies, projecting significant increases in net profits and improvements in cash flow over the next few years [11][12][13][14][16][17][21][22]. Summary by Sector Agriculture - Recommended Stock: Muyuan Foods (牧原股份) - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 154.9 billion, 160.2 billion, and 225.5 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 18, 17, and 12 [11][27]. Retail - Recommended Stock: Shangmei Co., Ltd. (上美股份) - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 11.2 million, 14.0 million, and 17.0 million respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 24, 19, and 16 [12][27]. Social Services - Recommended Stock: Jinjiang Hotels (锦江酒店) - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 9.53 million, 10.57 million, and 11.63 million respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 28, 25, and 23 [13][27]. Automotive - Recommended Stock: Top Group (拓普集团) - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 27.8 million, 34.1 million, and 43.3 million respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 45, 37, and 29 [14][27]. Textiles - Recommended Stock: HLA (海澜之家) - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 21.6 million, 23.1 million, and 24.5 million respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 14, 13, and 12 [16][17][27]. Light Industry - Recommended Stock: Craft Home (匠心家居) - Projected net profits for 2025-2026 are 9.2 million and 12.0 million respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 22 and 17 [17][27]. Food - Recommended Stock: Wancheng Group (万辰集团) - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 12.81 million, 20.46 million, and 26.81 million respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 30, 19, and 14 [18][27]. Home Appliances - Recommended Stock: Anker Innovations (安克创新) - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 26.57 million, 31.98 million, and 38.95 million respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 22.5, 18.7, and 15.4 [21][27]. Pharmaceuticals - Recommended Stock: Zhaoyan New Drug (昭衍新药) - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 0.61 million, 0.85 million, and 0.97 million respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 31.8, 22.9, and 19.9 [22][27].

Group 1 - The aquaculture sector increased by 1.58% on December 29, with Jingji Zhino leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3965.28, up 0.04%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13537.1, down 0.49% [1] - Key stocks in the aquaculture sector showed varied performance, with Jingji Zhino rising by 10.01% to a closing price of 16.27 [1] Group 2 - The main funds in the aquaculture sector saw a net inflow of 90.42 million yuan, while retail funds had a net inflow of 10.91 million yuan [2] - Major stocks like Muyuan Foods and Wen's Foodstuffs experienced significant net outflows from retail investors [3] - Jingji Zhino had a net inflow of 67.42 million yuan from main funds, indicating strong institutional interest [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the hog industry is "Oscillating" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the hog market evolved from "counter - cyclical inventory accumulation" to "policy - driven inventory reduction" under the backdrop of absolute over - capacity. Despite efficiency improvements and lower feed costs, the industry entered a phase of substantial capacity reduction due to continuous policy guidance and deep losses [2][13] - In 2026, the market will show a clear pattern of "near - term weakness and long - term strength". It is recommended to adopt a reverse spread strategy as the base allocation for the whole year to capture the price difference between reality and expectations [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025: Waiting for the Bottom to Come - **Q1**: A "structural bottom" supported by expectations. The pre - Spring Festival concentrated slaughter led to a short - term supply shortage after the festival. The high fat - to - standard price spread strengthened the industry's reluctance to sell, delaying capacity clearance [14] - **Q2**: An "oscillating bottom - grinding" in sentiment games. After May Day, pig prices declined. The rebound after the Dragon Boat Festival lacked fundamental support, and the market returned to an oscillating pattern [15] - **Q3**: A "re - construction of far - month contracts" driven by policies. The industry symposium in July signaled "anti - involution" and "capacity and inventory reduction", shifting the trading logic to "strong expectations" and establishing a reverse spread structure [15] - **Q4**: A "cost breakdown" after returning to reality. After the National Day, pig prices fell sharply, breaking through the cash cost line. The market focused on the substantial reduction of sow inventory and potential winter epidemic risks [16] 3.2 Market Pattern Re - shaping and the Capacity Reduction Cycle 3.2.1 Vertical Intensification of the Industry - The hog industry has entered a new stage of structural differentiation and intensive upgrading. By October 2025, large - scale enterprises dominated the industry, with listed companies and large breeding groups controlling 43.1% of the sow inventory. The industry's overall ability has improved, but price and capacity adjustments have become more sensitive [20] - Regionally, different patterns have emerged: South China is highly intensive, Northeast China has a dual - structure, and Central China is more balanced. The inter - regional price difference has become more stable, and the futures delivery area has been expanded, strengthening the linkage between futures and spot markets [23][24] 3.2.2 Cycle Development Path: Policy and Market - Driven Capacity Reduction - **Downward inflection point delay**: Thanks to cost optimization, the downward inflection point of this cycle was postponed. The industry's profit was maintained until September 2025 when the industry entered a full - scale loss phase due to inventory pressure and spot price drops [30] - **Total over - supply**: The large inventory and high出栏 volume in 2025 were due to the increase in sow capacity last year. The supply pressure was significant, and many listed companies were close to or had exceeded their annual出栏 targets [43][47] - **Capacity loosening**: Since 2025, the sow inventory has gone through four stages. Multiple data sources confirm that the industry entered a new capacity adjustment phase in the third quarter, but the reduction is still mild, and the supply is expected to remain loose until the end of Q1 2026 [52][67] 3.3 Peak出栏, Speculation Support, and Consumption 3.3.1 Piglets: Leading Indicator for出栏 Forecast - Piglets are a key indicator for predicting hog出栏. In 2025, piglet supply increased steadily, and the industry's efficiency improvement contributed to the increase in piglet births. Based on the piglet - to - hog conversion cycle, the出栏 is expected to peak in Q1 2026 and may improve in Q2 [69][70] 3.3.2 Elasticity and Support from Speculation - **Breeding speculation**: The inventory adjustment through breeding speculation affects the存栏 structure. In 2025, the industry showed long - term optimization and short - term fluctuations in the weight distribution of hogs. In 2026, post - Spring Festival low - price pressure and secondary fattening may support prices [78][80] - **Frozen product inventory**: In 2025, the frozen product inventory rate first decreased and then increased. In 2026, if there is a price reversal expectation in the second half of the year, the slaughter end may increase inventory in the first half, supporting post - Spring Festival spot prices [93][94] 3.3.3 Limited Boost from Curing Demand - Although the slaughter volume increased year - on - year, the curing demand at the end of the year had limited impact on prices. The reasons include the long - term consumption structure optimization and the postponed Spring Festival in 2026 [98] 3.3.4 Feed Data Confirmation - Feed data can confirm the hog存栏 structure. As of November, the feed sales data from different institutions showed that the feed consumption related to capacity had decreased marginally, while the fattening feed was still increasing, indicating a significant存栏 pressure [100][101] 3.4 Outlook and Investment Suggestions 3.4.1 Summary of Views - The continuous increase in sow inventory in 2024 led to an expansion of hog出栏 in 2025 and a price decline. However, factors such as lower feed costs, speculative behavior, and improved production efficiency deviated from the early market expectations. The industry may see a new upward inflection point in pig prices around Q2 2026, but the cycle evolution is complex [110][111] 3.4.2 Strategies - **Short - term (end of the year to pre - Spring Festival)**: Seize the band - trading opportunities in the oscillating market. Use an interval - oscillating strategy, and consider short - term long positions when the market is pessimistic and short positions when prices reach key resistance levels. The support level for LH2603 is 11,000 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 11,800 - 12,000 yuan/ton [112] - **Medium - term (post - Spring Festival to Q1 2026)**: Adopt a bearish strategy and focus on the release of supply pressure. Short positions can be added on price rebounds, but beware of potential rebounds. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities when LH2603 approaches 11,800 - 12,000 yuan/ton and LH2605 returns to 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [113][114] - **Long - term (from Q2 2026)**: Observe on the left - hand side and prepare for the cycle reversal. Shift the strategy from "short - selling" to "finding the inflection point". When the fundamental signals are confirmed, gradually build long positions in far - month contracts at the support level of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton. Use a flexible reverse spread strategy for arbitrage [115]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - The pork industry continues to face losses, with a focus on pig farming opportunities. The average price of live pigs is 11.59 CNY/kg, down 0.46% week-on-week. The total breeding sow inventory is 39.9 million heads, down 1.1% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year. The industry is experiencing ongoing losses, with self-bred and purchased pig farming losses at 130.11 CNY/head and 162.80 CNY/head respectively. The recent anti-dumping ruling may alleviate domestic pork supply pressure, leading to accelerated capacity reduction [2][12]. Summary by Sections Planting Industry Chain - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has initiated winter crop seed supervision checks to ensure seed safety for the upcoming spring and summer planting. The checks focus on key crops such as corn, rice, soybeans, cotton, and vegetables. The commercialization of genetically modified technology is expected to accelerate, enhancing self-sufficiency rates of key varieties. Recommended stocks include Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development [1][11]. Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs is reported at 11.59 CNY/kg, with a slight decrease of 0.46% from the previous week. The average price for pig futures is 11,469 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.07% increase. The average weight of pigs post-slaughter is 89.57 kg, with a month-on-month increase of 3.21% in slaughter volume [12][62][65]. Recommended Stocks - For pig farming, recommended stocks include: 1. Livestock sector: Lihua Stock, Muyuan Food, Shuanghui Development, Dekang Agriculture, Jingji Zhino, and Wens Foodstuff 2. Feed sector: Haida Group 3. Animal health sector: Jinhai Biological, Biological Shares, Placo, and Zhongmu Shares [2][12].

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural and livestock sector, particularly pig farming, continues to show upward momentum, with the highest "pig content" agricultural ETF (159275) experiencing a price increase of 0.71% as of the latest report [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The agricultural ETF (159275) opened with a slight dip but then rose, showing a current increase of 0.71% [1]. - Key stocks in the sector, such as Muyuan Foods, rose over 5%, while other companies like Brother Technology and Wens Foodstuff increased by over 3% and 2%, respectively [1]. Group 2: Industry Trends - Data from the Guangdong Provincial Department of Agriculture indicates a 2.10% month-on-month decrease in the number of breeding sows, marking four consecutive months of decline [1]. - The pig farming industry is entering a regulatory phase, with authorities reducing production capacity to control pig prices, which are under downward pressure due to increased slaughter volumes and large pig inventories [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the supply-demand dynamics in the pig farming industry will improve, with continued pressure on prices expected until mid-2026, followed by a gradual easing of supply pressures [3]. - The agricultural and livestock sector is currently at a relatively low valuation level, presenting a good opportunity for long-term investment [3]. - The pig farming industry is facing three main pressures: falling market prices, rising epidemic risks, and regulatory pressures, which may lead to continued rapid capacity reduction [5].

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural and livestock sector, represented by pig farming, continues to rise, with the highest "pig content" agricultural ETF (159275) showing a price increase of 0.71% as of December 29 [1][11]. Market Performance - The agricultural ETF (159275) opened with a slight dip but then rose, with a current price of 0.996, reflecting a gain of 0.007 [2][12]. - Key stocks in the sector include Muyuan Foods, which surged over 5%, and other companies like Brother Technology, Wens Foodstuff, and several others showing gains of over 1% [1][11]. Industry Trends - Data from the Guangdong Provincial Department of Agriculture indicates a 2.10% month-on-month decrease in the number of breeding sows as of November 2025, marking four consecutive months of decline [4][12]. - The pig farming industry is entering a regulatory phase, with authorities reducing production capacity to control pig prices, which are under downward pressure due to increased slaughter volumes and large pig inventories [3][13]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the supply-demand dynamics in the pig farming sector will improve, with ongoing supply pressures expected to ease by the second half of 2026 [3][14]. - The agricultural and livestock sector is currently valued at a relatively low level, presenting a good opportunity for long-term investment [3][15]. Investment Recommendations - The agricultural ETF (159275) is highlighted as a key investment vehicle, tracking the CSI Agricultural and Livestock Index, which includes leading companies in pig farming and related sectors [5][15]. - Investors are encouraged to focus on leading pig farming companies, which are expected to recover in valuation as the market stabilizes [5][15].