Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company achieved its annual cost reduction target, with profitability reaching a new level [1] - The company's Q4 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders is estimated to be between 6 52 billion and 7 52 billion yuan [1] - The company's pig production volume accelerated in Q4 2024, with costs continuing to decline [2] - The company aims to achieve a cost target of 12 yuan/kg in 2025, assuming no fluctuations in feed raw material prices [2] - The company's pig inventory and breeding sow inventory have increased significantly, indicating strong growth potential for 2025 [3] Financial Performance - The company's 2024 full-year pig production volume reached 71 602 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 12 2% [2] - The average selling price of commercial pigs in 2024 was 16 3 yuan/kg, with a complete cost of 14 0 yuan/kg and a profit per head of 281 yuan [2] - In Q4 2024, the company's pig production volume was 21 458 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 27 7%, with a complete cost of 13 1 yuan/kg and a profit per head of 360 5 yuan [2] - The company's pig inventory at the end of November 2024 was approximately 49 million heads, a 22 5% increase from the end of 2023 [3] - The company's breeding sow inventory at the end of 2024 was 3 512 million heads, a 12 2% increase from the end of 2023 [3] Financial Forecasts - The report adjusts the company's profit forecasts for 2024-2026, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to be 17 98 billion yuan, 24 35 billion yuan, and 19 17 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The company's 2024-2026 revenue growth rates are forecasted to be 26 7%, -0 8%, and 1 6%, respectively [4] - The company's 2024-2026 net profit growth rates are forecasted to be 521 7%, 35 4%, and -21 3%, respectively [4] - The company's 2024-2026 EPS is forecasted to be 3 29 yuan, 4 46 yuan, and 3 51 yuan, respectively [4] - The company's 2024-2026 ROE is forecasted to be 20 4%, 23 2%, and 15 7%, respectively [4] Valuation Metrics - The company's 2025 PE ratio is 8 4x [3] - The company's 2025 PB ratio is 2 0x [4] - The company's 2025 EV/EBITDA ratio is 6 2x [9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Muyuan Foods (002714 SZ) with a target price of 49 34 RMB [3] Core Views - Muyuan Foods achieved a net profit of 17 6-19 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 498 7%-522 2% [7] - The company's 2024 slaughter volume exceeded 71 million heads, successfully meeting the annual target with a 12 2% year-on-year increase [7] - Muyuan Foods' breeding efficiency continues to improve, with PSY reaching over 29 and a complete breeding cost of 13 1 RMB/kg in November 2024 [7] - The company's sow inventory increased by 196,000 heads in Q4 2024, supporting future slaughter volume growth [7] Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from 110 861 million RMB in 2023 to 149 413 million RMB in 2026 [2] - Net profit is expected to recover significantly from -4 263 million RMB in 2023 to 26 755 million RMB in 2026 [2] - EPS is forecasted to increase from -0 79 RMB in 2023 to 4 90 RMB in 2026 [2] - ROE is projected to improve from -6 8% in 2023 to 22 5% in 2026 [2] Operational Highlights - Muyuan Foods' slaughter volume reached 21 46 million heads in Q4 2024, a 27 7% year-on-year increase [7] - The company's complete breeding cost decreased to 13 1-13 3 RMB/kg in Q4 2024, maintaining industry leadership [7] - Muyuan Foods aims to reduce the complete breeding cost to 12 RMB/kg in 2025 [7] Valuation Metrics - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 19 58x in 2022 to 7 61x in 2026 [2] - EV/EBITDA is projected to decline from 22 09x in 2023 to 4 08x in 2026 [2] - The target price of 49 34 RMB is based on a 15x PE multiple for 2025 [7]

Company Performance - The company expects a net profit of 18 billion to 19 billion yuan for 2024, a significant turnaround from the previous year's loss [1] - The company sold 71,602,000 pigs in 2024, including 65,477,000 commercial pigs, 5,659,000 piglets, and 465,000 breeding pigs, achieving its annual target [1] - The company's pig sales revenue reached 136,225 billion yuan in 2024, showing growth compared to the previous year [1] - In December 2024, the company sold 8,578,000 pigs, including 8,188,000 commercial pigs, 360,000 piglets, and 31,000 breeding pigs, driven by increased demand before the Spring Festival [1] Cost Management - The company's pig farming cost decreased to approximately 13 yuan/kg in December 2024, down from 15.8 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year, reaching the lowest level in recent years [2] - The company's sales price in 2024 was around 16.3 yuan/kg, a 12.7% year-on-year increase, significantly higher than the farming cost, contributing to the company's strong performance [2] - The company aims to reduce the overall pig farming cost to 12 yuan/kg by 2025, excluding fluctuations in feed raw material prices [2] - The company has achieved half of its cost reduction target of 600 yuan per pig, with one-third of the reduction realized after accounting for feed price impacts [2] Production Efficiency - The company's PSY (Pigs per Sow per Year) exceeded 29 in November 2024, with a survival rate close to 86%, daily weight gain of over 800 grams, and a feed-to-meat ratio of around 2.8, indicating improved production efficiency [3] - The company's operating cash flow reached 29.18 billion yuan in the third quarter of 2024, the highest since its listing, reflecting strong financial health [3] - The company distributed 4.5 billion yuan in dividends for the first three quarters of 2024, representing 40.06% of its net profit for the period [3]

Profit Forecast and Growth - Net profit for 2024 is expected to be between RMB 18.0 billion and RMB 19.0 billion, a significant turnaround from a loss of RMB 4.168 billion in the previous year, representing a growth of 531.88% to 555.87%[4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between RMB 17.0 billion and RMB 18.0 billion, compared to a loss of RMB 4.263 billion in the previous year, indicating a growth of 498.75% to 522.21%[4] - Non-GAAP net profit is forecasted to be between RMB 19.0 billion and RMB 20.0 billion, up from a loss of RMB 3.918 billion in the previous year, showing a growth of 584.97% to 610.49%[4] - Basic earnings per share are expected to be between RMB 3.20 and RMB 3.40, compared to a loss of RMB 0.79 per share in the previous year[4] Factors Contributing to Performance Turnaround - The turnaround in performance is attributed to an increase in both the volume of pigs sold and the average selling price, alongside a reduction in pig farming costs compared to the previous year[7][8] Audit and Financial Reporting - The company has pre-communicated with its accounting firm regarding the performance forecast, and no significant disagreements exist, though the final data will be subject to audit results[5] - The performance forecast has not been audited by a certified public accountant[6] - The performance forecast is based on preliminary calculations by the company's financial department, and the final financial data will be disclosed in the 2024 annual report[10] Risks and Challenges - Risks include significant fluctuations in pig market prices, which could impact the company's performance, and the systemic risk of price changes in the pig production industry[9] - Animal diseases pose a major risk to the livestock industry and could significantly affect the company's performance[9]

| 证券代码：002714 | 证券简称：牧原股份 | 公告编号：2025-002 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：127045 | 债券简称：牧原转债 | | 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有 虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示： | 股票代码：002714 | | | | 股票简称：牧原股份 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：127045 | | | | 债券简称：牧原转债 | | | | | | | 转股价格：人民币 | | 45.74 | | 元/股（2024 | | 年 | 12 | 月 | 日生效） 30 | | 转股时间：2022 | 年 | 2 月 | 21 | 日至 8 | 2027 | 年 | 月 | 15 | 日（如遇节假日，向后顺延） | 根据《深圳证券交易所股票上市规则》等有关规定，牧原食品股份有限公司 （以下简称"牧原股份"或"公司"）现将 2024 年第四季度"牧原转债"转股及公司 股份变动 ...

| 证券代码：002714 | 证券简称：牧原股份 公告编号：2025-001 | | --- | --- | | 债券代码：127045 | 债券简称：牧原转债 | 牧原食品股份有限公司 关于股份回购进展情况的公告 本次回购符合相关法律法规及公司既定回购股份方案的要求。 二、其他说明 公司回购股份的时间及集中竞价交易的委托时段符合《深圳证券交易所上市 公司自律监管指引第 9 号——回购股份》的相关规定。 1、公司未在下列期间回购股份： 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 牧原食品股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2024 年 9 月 25 日召开的第 四届董事会第二十九次会议审议通过了《关于回购公司股份的议案》，公司拟使 用自有资金或自筹资金以集中竞价交易的方式回购公司发行的人民币普通股（A 股），回购总金额不低于人民币 30 亿元且不超过人民币 40 亿元（均含本数），回 购价格不超过人民币 58.60 元/股（含本数）。由于公司实施 2024 年前三季度权益 分派，于 2024 年 12 月 30 日调整回购股份价格为不超过人民币 57.7 ...

关于 2024 年前三季度权益分派实施后 调整回购价格上限的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确和完整，没有 虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示： | 证券代码：002714 | 证券简称：牧原股份 | 公告编号：2024-112 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：127045 | 债券简称：牧原转债 | | 牧原食品股份有限公司 公司2024年前三季度利润分配方案的议案》，并于2024年12月30日实施了2024 年前三季度利润分配方案：以公司现有总股本剔除已回购股份66,316,138股后的 5,396,448,205股为基数，向全体股东每10股派8.347930元人民币现金，分红总额 4,504,917,186.40元。具体内容详见公司于2024年12月24日披露的《2024年前三 季度权益分派实施公告》（公告编号：2024-107）。 根据《关于回购公司股份方案的公告暨回购报告书》，如公司在回购股份 期内实施了送红股、资本公积转增股本、现金分红、配股及其他除权除息事项， 自股价除权、除息之日起，按照中国证监会和深圳证券交易所的相关规定相应 调整回购股 ...

3、回售价格：100.41元人民币/张（含息、税） | 证券代码：002714 | 证券简称：牧原股份 | 公告编号：2024-113 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：127045 | 债券简称：牧原转债 | | 牧原食品股份有限公司 关于 "牧原转债" 回售结果的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确和完整，没有 虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示： 1、债券代码：127045 2、债券简称：牧原转债 4、回售申报期：2024年12月20日至2024年12月26日 5、回售有效申报数量：90张 6、回售金额：9,037.35元（含息、税） 7、投资者回售款到账日：2025年1月3日 牧原食品股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于2024年11月26日召开了第四 届董事会第三十一次会议、第四届监事会第二十七次会议，于2024年12月12日召 开了2024年第一次临时股东大会和"牧原转债"2024年第一次债券持有人会议，上 述会议分别审议通过了《关于变更部分募集资金用途的议案》，根据公司《公开 发行可转换公司债券募集说明书》（以下简称"《募集说明书》"）的约定，" ...

| 证券代码：002714 | 证券简称：牧原股份 | 公告编号：2024-111 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：127045 | 债券简称：牧原转债 | | 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确和完整，没有 虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示： 1、回售价格：100.41元人民币/张（含息、税） 牧原食品股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于2024年11月26日召开了第四 届董事会第三十一次会议、第四届监事会第二十七次会议，于2024年12月12日召 开了2024年第一次临时股东大会和"牧原转债"2024年第一次债券持有人会议，上 述会议分别审议通过了《关于变更部分募集资金用途的议案》，根据公司《公开 发行可转换公司债券募集说明书》（以下简称"《募集说明书》"）的约定，"牧原 转债"的附加回售条款生效。公司根据《深圳证券交易所股票上市规则》《深圳 证券交易所上市公司自律监管指南第1号——业务办理》及《募集说明书》等相 关规定，现将"牧原转债"回售有关事项公告如下： 牧原食品股份有限公司 关于 "牧原转债" 回售的第三次提示性公告 一、回售情况概述 1、回售条款 ...

2、债券简称：牧原转债 | 证券代码：002714 | 证券简称：牧原股份 公告编号：2024-109 | | --- | --- | | 债券代码：127045 | 债券简称：牧原转债 | 牧原食品股份有限公司 3、暂停转股时间：2024年12月20日至2024年12月27日 4、恢复转股时间：2024年12月30日 关于 "牧原转债"恢复转股的提示性公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确和完整，没有 虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示： 1、债券代码：127045 牧原食品股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于2024年11月26日召开了第四 届董事会第三十一次会议、第四届监事会第二十七次会议，于2024年12月12日召 开了2024年第一次临时股东大会和"牧原转债"2024年第一次债券持有人会议，上 述会议分别审议通过了《关于变更部分募集资金用途的议案》，根据公司《公开 发行可转换公司债券募集说明书》的约定，"牧原转债"的附加回售条款生效。根 据《深圳证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第15号——可转换公司债券》的相关 规定，可转换公司债券实施回售的，应当暂停可转换公司债券转股；公司因 ...