Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the securities industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [3]. Core Insights - The securities industry has benefited from a slow bull market, with listed brokers achieving a year-on-year increase in operating income of 43% and net profit of 63% in Q3 2025 [6][16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of brokers as "flag bearers" of the bull market, despite their overall underperformance, suggesting they warrant more attention and allocation [7][16]. - The report forecasts that the industry will achieve total revenue of 556.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23%, and net profit of 233.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40% for the year 2025 [7][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance Benefiting from Slow Bull Market - The market environment is characterized by a strong stock market and weak bond market, with the ChiNext Index rising by 51.2% in Q3 2025 [9][11]. - Listed brokers reported total operating income of 419.6 billion yuan and net profit of 169 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting significant growth [16][20]. - The average annualized ROE for 42 listed brokers was 7.51%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from the previous year [25]. 2. Business Segment Performance - Brokerage income increased by 68% year-on-year, reaching 111.8 billion yuan in Q3 2025, driven by a significant expansion in the client base [39]. - Investment banking income grew by 16% year-on-year, totaling 25.2 billion yuan, with a notable increase in IPO and refinancing activities [47][56]. - Asset management income decreased by 2% year-on-year, amounting to 33.3 billion yuan, but the decline rate has narrowed [64]. 3. Annual Outlook - The report anticipates a perfect closing year for the industry, with a focus on policy and liquidity outlooks [7][16]. - The report highlights the ongoing trend of cost reduction among brokers, which is expected to impact revenue and profit concentration differently across firms [28]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on potential catalysts for low-cost acquisition of related stocks, particularly in light of upcoming policy meetings and economic work conferences [7][16]. - Specific recommendations include increasing positions in high-performing stocks such as Guotai Junan, Huatai Securities, and CICC, while also considering flexible stocks like GF Securities and Guosen Securities [7][16].

Core Viewpoint - The current market logic is driven by liquidity contraction rather than risk aversion, primarily due to the U.S. federal government shutdown, which has led to a significant liquidity gap of $1.5 to $1.8 trillion [1][2]. Group 1: Market Overview - Various asset classes have experienced notable pullbacks, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures falling below their 20-day moving averages, and gold dropping below 4000 [1]. - The U.S. Treasury yield has shown a steady decline, indicating a broader trend of liquidity contraction affecting both risk and safe-haven assets [1]. Group 2: U.S. Government Shutdown Impact - The U.S. federal government shutdown is projected to create an annualized liquidity gap of $1.85 trillion, with a weekly absorption of $35.5 billion from the private sector [2]. - The shutdown is expected to reduce annualized revenue by $85 billion while cutting expenditures by $1.93 trillion, exacerbating the liquidity crunch [2]. Group 3: Short-term Outlook - U.S. investment banks anticipate that the federal government will resume operations within two weeks, with bipartisan agreement expected on fiscal issues [3]. - Confidence among Republican senators suggests that the political deadlock may soon be resolved, potentially alleviating liquidity concerns [3]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The current market pullback in U.S. equities is viewed as a buying opportunity, with the S&P 500's fair valuation range estimated between 6900 and 6950, indicating no significant valuation burden [4]. - In the Hong Kong market, the ongoing process of valuation digestion is expected to be limited due to the high certainty of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, creating favorable conditions for investment [5]. Group 5: Sector Recommendations - Strong sectors facing profit-taking pressure before liquidity recovery may present greater opportunities post-recovery, particularly in semiconductors and materials [6]. - The semiconductor sector, especially storage chips, is positioned for a cyclical upswing, while gold and industrial metals are expected to benefit from stable demand and favorable market conditions [6].

国信证券发布研报称，维持百胜中国(09987)"优于大市"评级，考虑投资收益的边际影响，调整2025- 2027年归母净利润预测至9.27/9.93/10.66亿美元(调整幅度-2.0%/0%/0%)，兼顾股份回购，EPS为 2.62/2.95/3.30美元。期内运营效率持续改善带动经营利润稳健增长，扩张计划也相对稳健，展望未来外 卖&业态产品创新驱动下同店有望持续呈现α改善态势，稳步推进的股东回报也贡献额外看点。 2025Q3，系统销售同增4%，其中肯德基/必胜客分别同增5%/4%;整体同店销售同增1%维持韧性增长 (Q1/Q2分别为0%/1%)，分品牌看，肯德基/必胜客分别同增2%/1%，其中肯德基交易量/客单价分别同比 +3%/-1%，必胜客执行高性价比产品策略，客单价仍同比继续走低，但交易量良好恢复下同增17%。 2025Q3门店净增536家，加盟占比继续提升 2025Q3门店净增536家，前三季度门店净增1119家，维持全年1600-1800家门店净增目标。期末门店总数 达17514家(肯德基/必胜客分别12640/4022家)。与此同时，2025Q3肯德基/必胜客加盟占比分别达到 41%/28%， ...

2025Q3，系统销售同增4%，其中肯德基/必胜客分别同增5%/4%;整体同店销售同增1%维持韧性增长 (Q1/Q2分别为0%/1%)，分品牌看，肯德基/必胜客分别同增2%/1%，其中肯德基交易量/客单价分别同比 +3%/-1%，必胜客执行高性价比产品策略，客单价仍同比继续走低，但交易量良好恢复下同增17%。 2025Q3门店净增536家，加盟占比继续提升 2025Q3门店净增536家，前三季度门店净增1119家，维持全年1600-1800家门店净增目标。期末门店总数 达17514家(肯德基/必胜客分别12640/4022家)。与此同时，2025Q3肯德基/必胜客加盟占比分别达到 41%/28%，加盟占比继续提升。截至2025三季度末，集团会员总数达到5.75亿，会员销售占比57%。 智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，维持百胜中国(09987)"优于大市"评级，考虑投资收益的边际 影响，调整2025-2027年归母净利润预测至9.27/9.93/10.66亿美元(调整幅度-2.0%/0%/0%)，兼顾股份回 购，EPS为2.62/2.95/3.30美元。期内运营效率持续改善带动经营利润稳健增长，扩张计划 ...

48 脚 स्त्रीय 波 TSINGHUA Financial Review 清华金融评论 144 数据资产化浪潮下的 P65 保险赋能与价值重构 张伟 等: 我国寿险业高质量 发展模式的构想 P73 聂庆平: 全球资本市场面临的 挑战与前景展望 TSINGHUA Financial Review 清华金融评论 封面专题 金融助力科技创新 和产业创新深度融合 闻出版管理 部门认定第一 中国人文社会科学核心期刊 P69 生力值 年第11期 总第144期 1日5日4 ANDELL 30 T. CN 10-1169/F SSN 209 PQ2 王泊: 充分发挥科创板"试验田"作用 助力深化资本市场改革 支持加快高水平科技自立自强 P16 田轩 等: 赋能新质生产力: 资本市场服务科技创新的逻辑与对策 P19 杜春野: 深化科技金融范式创新: 商业银行助力科技企业高质量发展的思考与实践 P23 刘健 等: 打造科技投行, 提升资本市场服务科技创新能力 P27 葛小波 等 关于证券公司服务新质生产力 和推动科技创新的思考 充分发挥科创板"试验田"作用 助力深化资本市场改革 支持加快高水平科技自立自强 文/上海证券交 ...

每经AI快讯，国信证券11月5日发布研报称，给予蓝思科技（300433.SZ，最新价：28.04元）"优于大 市"评级。评级理由主要包括：1）消费电子业务受益新品发布与客户加单，折叠屏打开未来增量空间； 2）智能汽车业务稳步推进，超薄夹胶玻璃即将进入量产收获期。风险提示：需求不及预期；汇率波动 风险；客户集中的风险。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——大量苹果用户中招！手机秒变别人的"提款机"，一场以"电商伪装"精心设 计的骗局 免责声明：本文内容与数据仅供参考，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。据此操作，风险自担。 （记者 王晓波） 每日经济新闻 ...

Group 1 - The core index of the securities companies, the CSI All Share Securities Index, has decreased by 0.32% as of November 5, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI All Share Securities Index account for 59.88% of the index, with Dongfang Caifu and CITIC Securities being the largest contributors [4] - The latest market valuation of the CSI All Share Securities Index is at a PE-TTM of 17.76 times, indicating it is at a historical low compared to the past year [3] Group 2 - The securities ETF managed by Jiashi has seen a trading turnover of 0.56% and a total transaction volume of 3.0549 million yuan, with its scale reaching a new high of 552 million yuan [3] - The Jiashi securities ETF has experienced continuous net inflows over the past four days, totaling 56.7442 million yuan, with a single-day peak inflow of 25.4304 million yuan [3] - The securities sector's performance in the first three quarters of 2025 has met expectations, driven mainly by brokerage and proprietary trading businesses, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [6][7] Group 3 - The securities sector has seen a less than 10% increase in the first three quarters of the year, with a price-to-book ratio around 1.5 times, suggesting a mismatch with current earnings growth [7] - The transformation towards wealth management and institutional business is providing long-term growth momentum for the industry, indicating potential for value re-evaluation [7] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Jiashi securities ETF linked fund to gain exposure to the securities sector [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Guosen Securities has given a "better than market" rating to Nine Company (689009.SH) based on strong projected revenue and net profit growth for Q1-Q3 2025 [1] - The report highlights that while the net profit margin is expected to decline on a quarter-on-quarter basis in Q3 2025 due to factors such as exchange rate fluctuations and changes in product mix, the overall growth outlook remains positive [1] - The electric two-wheeler sector is anticipated to experience significant growth due to smart upgrades and iterations, while other areas such as lawn mowers and all-terrain vehicles are also expected to open up new growth opportunities [1] Group 2 - There is a notable increase in overseas orders, with a reported surge of 246%, covering over 50 countries and regions, indicating a booming industry [1] - However, concerns have been raised about potential malicious competition as some companies are reportedly selling at a loss, which could lead to unhealthy competition extending to international markets [1]

- The report introduces the methodology for calculating index dividend points, which is crucial for accurately estimating the premium or discount of stock index futures contracts. The calculation considers the dividend impact of index constituent stocks, including their dividend amount, market capitalization, weight, and index closing price[39][40][44] - The weight of index constituent stocks is refined from monthly data provided by mainstream data providers to daily data disclosed by the China Securities Index Company. This ensures higher accuracy in capturing the daily weight changes of individual stocks[45][46] - The estimation of dividend amounts involves predicting net profits and dividend payout ratios. Net profit prediction is based on historical profit distribution dynamics, categorizing companies into stable and unstable profit distribution groups. Stable companies use historical patterns for prediction, while unstable ones rely on the previous year's profit as a forecast[47][50] - Dividend payout ratio prediction uses historical averages. If a company paid dividends last year, the previous year's payout ratio is used. If not, the average of the past three years is applied. Companies with no dividend history are assumed not to pay dividends[51][53] - The prediction of ex-dividend dates employs a linear extrapolation method based on the stability of historical interval days between dividend announcement and ex-dividend dates. Default dates are set for companies with insufficient historical data or no dividend history[55][56] - The accuracy of the dividend point estimation model is validated by comparing predicted dividend points with actual dividend points for major indices like the SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 500. The model shows high accuracy for SSE 50 and CSI 300, with errors around 5 points, while errors for CSI 500 are slightly larger, around 10 points[57][61]

Core Insights - The performance of 42 listed securities firms in the first three quarters of 2025 showed significant growth, with total operating revenue reaching 419.56 billion yuan and net profit attributable to shareholders at 169.05 billion yuan, marking increases of 42.55% and 62.38% respectively compared to the same period in 2024 [1][2] Revenue Breakdown - Brokerage business emerged as the fastest-growing segment, achieving revenue of 111.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 74.64%, driven by heightened market activity and increased trading commission income [2][6] - Proprietary trading followed with revenue of 186.86 billion yuan, up 43.83%, benefiting from improved investment returns in a rising A-share market [2] - Credit and investment banking businesses also saw growth, with revenues of 33.91 billion yuan and 25.15 billion yuan, reflecting increases of 54.52% and 23.46% respectively [2] - Asset management business growth was slower, with revenue of 33.25 billion yuan, only a 2.43% increase [2] Performance Disparities - There was notable performance differentiation among firms, with 11 firms exceeding 10 billion yuan in revenue, while Western Securities was the only firm to report a revenue decline of 2.17% [3][4] - Leading firms included CITIC Securities and Guotai Junan, with revenues of 55.81 billion yuan and 45.89 billion yuan, respectively, maintaining their positions in the top tier [2][3] Net Profit Analysis - Five firms reported net profits exceeding 10 billion yuan, with CITIC Securities leading at 23.16 billion yuan, followed closely by Guotai Junan at 22.07 billion yuan [3] - Despite overall growth, Huatai Securities experienced a modest net profit increase of only 1.69% [3] Accounting Policy Changes - Zhejiang Securities exited the "100 billion club" with revenue of 6.79 billion yuan, down from 11.90 billion yuan in 2024, due to changes in accounting policies related to standard warehouse receipts [4][5] - The adjustments affected nearly 20 listed securities firms, including major players like CITIC Securities and Guotai Junan, indicating a widespread impact on the industry [5] M&A Impact on Growth - Mergers and acquisitions significantly influenced growth in the brokerage sector, with firms like Guolian Minsheng, Guotai Junan, and Guoxin Securities reporting year-on-year increases of 293.05%, 142.80%, and 109.30% in brokerage revenue, respectively [6][7] - The integration of acquired firms is progressing smoothly, with successful system transitions and customer migrations reported by Guolian Minsheng and Guotai Junan [7]