Core Viewpoint - Starting in 2024, Li Ning will actively reduce the scale of its direct-operated stores and control store area, leading to a recovery in direct operating profit margin from approximately 10% in 2023 to mid-teens by the first half of 2025 [1] Group 1: Store Strategy - The company plans to reduce the number of direct-operated stores while maintaining a stable wholesale channel and a slight increase in franchise stores, indicating a gradual recovery in dealer confidence [1] - By the end of 2025, the company will launch "Dragon Stores" and outdoor specialty stores that incorporate Olympic elements, aiming for precise market segmentation through store type differentiation [1] Group 2: Financial Outlook - If brand momentum improves, existing store efficiency and discount rates are expected to enhance operational leverage, potentially driving a new round of channel expansion [1] - The company is viewed as a leading domestic sports brand with an upward operational reversal expectation, long-term profit growth potential, and ample cash reserves [1] Group 3: Valuation - The report maintains a reasonable valuation range for the company at HKD 21.2 to 22.3, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 19 to 20 times for 2026, and retains an "outperform" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - 2025 is a pivotal year for the Chinese securities industry, focusing on deepening functional positioning and high-quality development, with an emphasis on mergers and acquisitions, international expansion, and technological innovation, particularly through AI applications [1][2]. Mergers and Acquisitions - The year marks a critical phase for mergers and acquisitions in the securities industry, with major firms like Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities merging to form Guotai Haitong Securities, and other significant consolidations such as Guolian Securities and Minsheng Securities [3][4]. - The competitive landscape is shifting, with Guotai Haitong leading in net profit, and Guolian Minsheng's ranking improving significantly from around 40th to the top 20 [3]. - New merger cases are emerging, such as CICC's plan to merge with Xinda Securities and Dongxing Securities, potentially creating a new entity with over 1 trillion yuan in total assets [3]. Industry Integration Logic - Two main integration strategies are evident: resource consolidation under the same actual controller and market-driven mergers aimed at enhancing national influence [4]. - Analysts suggest that resource integration may become the most important way for securities firms to quickly enhance scale and comprehensive strength [4]. Classification Evaluation Reform - A significant revision of the classification evaluation for securities firms is underway, emphasizing the need for firms to enhance their functional roles and professional capabilities [5][6]. - The new regulations aim to shift focus from revenue expansion to improving operational efficiency and professional skills, thereby enhancing overall industry competitiveness [5]. Margin Trading Market - The margin trading market is heating up, with a record balance of 2.54 trillion yuan, reflecting a 36.6% increase from the beginning of the year [7]. - Several firms have raised their margin trading limits, and a price war on interest rates has begun, with some firms offering rates below 4% [8][9]. Investment Banking and Technology - The securities industry is adapting to a new era of "hard technology," with reforms aimed at providing more inclusive financing paths for tech companies [10][11]. - Securities firms are establishing research institutes focused on emerging industries and enhancing their service capabilities through collaboration and talent development [11]. AI Integration - The adoption of AI technologies is rapidly transforming the industry, with applications expanding across various business functions, significantly improving efficiency [12][13]. - Firms are moving towards an "AI-native" model, enhancing client engagement and operational management through AI tools [12]. Internationalization of Securities Firms - The internationalization of Chinese securities firms is accelerating, with a focus on comprehensive service capabilities and participation in global market competition [14][15]. - This trend is driven by the growing demand for cross-border services and the strategic goal of building first-class investment banks [14]. Asset Management Transformation - The public offering process for asset management is at a turning point, with firms reassessing their positioning in the broader asset management landscape [16][17]. - The industry is witnessing a decline in the rush for public fund licenses, with many firms withdrawing applications, indicating a shift in focus towards existing business optimization [16]. Impact of Fund Fee Reforms - The implementation of public fund fee reforms is pushing securities firms to enhance their research and wealth management capabilities, with a notable decline in commission revenues [18]. - Firms are transitioning towards a buyer advisory model, focusing on asset management and providing comprehensive solutions rather than merely selling products [18]. Regulatory Environment - Regulatory signals indicate a potential easing of capital requirements for high-quality institutions, aimed at improving capital utilization efficiency [19]. - Analysts suggest that enhancing leverage and capital efficiency could drive growth in high-value capital-intensive businesses [19]. Name Changes Reflecting Strategic Shifts - A wave of name changes among securities firms signifies strategic realignments and resource restructuring following mergers and acquisitions [20][21]. - These changes reflect deeper integration and the influence of new stakeholders, indicating a shift in strategic focus and operational capabilities [20].

(相关资料图) 国信证券：接受易方达基金调研 每经AI快讯，国信证券（SZ002736，最新价：13.16元）发布公告 称，2025年12月26日10:00-11:30，国信证券接受易方达基金调研，公司董事会办公室赫凤杰、蔡妮芩等 参与接待，并回答了投资者提出的问题。2025年1至6月份，国信证券的营业收入构成为：投资与交易占 比49.18%，证券经纪业务占比47.09%，投资银行业务占比3.37%，资产管理业务占比3.05%，其他占 比-2.69%。每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——直击茅台经销商大会：2000多人周末齐聚！重大变革公布：涉 及茅台酒价格、分销等，董事长陈华：经销商不能再"躺着赚钱"（记者王瀚黎）免责声明：本文内容与 数据仅供参考，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。据此操作，风险自担。每日经济新闻 标签： 国信证券 证券经纪业务 易方达基金 经 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for the chain restaurant sector, highlighting the investment value of strong operational restaurant leaders and innovative tea beverage companies that can ensure stable returns for franchisees despite growth pressures [1] Group 1: Restaurant Consumption Trends - Demand is weakly recovering while supply is clearing, leading to growth strategies from leading companies, with national restaurant revenue increasing by 3.3% year-on-year from January to November 2025, slower than the 4.1% growth in retail [2] - Structural growth in online channels is evident, with significant benefits for milk tea, coffee, and fast food during the 2025 instant retail competition, although brands are becoming more rational about their approach to delivery [2] - Brand building strategies are shifting from creating single-hit products to enhancing supply chain efficiency, with a focus on developing membership systems for private traffic conversion [2] Group 2: Market Performance Review - Leading coffee and tea brands such as Gu Ming, Mixue Group, and Luckin Coffee have seen stock price increases of 185.8%, 45.4%, and 39.2% respectively, driven by increased consumer frequency and high enthusiasm from franchisees [3] - Restaurant leaders show varied stock performance, with strong same-store data and rapid expansion like Guoquan leading to a 98% increase, while others like Guangzhou Restaurant and Green Tea Group saw more moderate increases of 11.8%, 9.2%, and 8.8% [3] Group 3: Sub-industry Analysis and Outlook - The ready-to-drink tea segment is benefiting from the current delivery subsidy war, with seven listed tea leaders seeing revenue and adjusted net profit growth of 32.5% and 58.0% respectively in H1 2025, accelerating from 22.5% and 15.0% in 2024 [4] - In contrast, listed restaurant leaders experienced a revenue increase of only 1.5% in H1 2025, slower than the industry growth of 4.3%, due to factors like price competition and policy disruptions, although net profit grew by 7.5% [4] Group 4: Investment Framework Update - Same-store revenue growth serves as a valuation anchor, reflecting existing store profitability and influencing future expansion [5] - Store expansion rates act as a valuation amplifier, with potential for dual growth in valuation and performance during upward trends [5] - New product development is essential for generating new momentum, requiring supportive incentive systems [5] - Historical premium valuations for leading brands are linked to growth certainty and competitive dynamics [5] - Investment recommendations include Haidilao, Yum China, Guoquan, Gu Ming, Mixue Group, and others, with a positive outlook on Meituan-W in the local service sector [5]

Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities is optimistic about Li Ning's brand momentum recovery, predicting net profit for 2025-2027 to be CNY 2.4 billion, CNY 2.68 billion, and CNY 3.06 billion respectively, driven by new products and marketing strategies [1] Industry Overview - The Chinese sports outdoor footwear and apparel market is expected to reach CNY 440 billion by 2025, with a current growth rate of around 6% after experiencing fluctuations due to the pandemic [1] - The market structure is changing significantly, with professional sports categories growing faster than fashion sports, and the market concentration decreasing from 76% in 2019 to 68% in 2025 [1] Company Performance Review - From 2019 to 2021, the company experienced significant growth, with net profit reaching CNY 4 billion in 2021, a 5.6 times increase from three years prior [2] - Between 2022 and 2024, the company faced challenges due to a cooling of the "national trend" and macroeconomic pressures, leading to a slowdown in revenue growth and a decline in net profit margin to just over 10% [2] - In 2025, the company is expected to see a recovery in operating profit margin through inventory management and channel optimization, alongside securing core marketing resources for the 2028 Olympic cycle [2] Product Cycle - The company's leading categories have shifted from basketball and sports lifestyle to running, which is expected to grow at a rate of 25%-45% in 2023-2024, becoming the largest category at 34% [3] - Basketball shoes have stabilized in price after a decline, while the running shoe matrix continues to expand, with new technology expected to drive growth [3] Channel Strategy - Starting in 2024, the company plans to reduce the number of direct stores and control store sizes, which is expected to improve direct operating profit margins from around 10% in 2023 to mid-double digits by 2025 [4] - The introduction of specialized stores, such as "Dragon Stores" and outdoor stores, aims to tap into niche markets [4] Marketing Efforts - The company plans to increase its marketing expense ratio to low double digits starting in 2025, focusing on securing core Olympic resources and enhancing exposure through marathon events and elite athletes [5] - Social media engagement is also being strengthened, with increases in post frequency, follower count, and interaction metrics [5]

Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities is optimistic about the brand momentum recovery of Li Ning (02331), predicting net profits for 2025-2027 to be CNY 2.4 billion, CNY 2.68 billion, and CNY 3.06 billion respectively, driven by new products and marketing strategies [1] Industry Overview - The Chinese sports outdoor footwear and apparel market is expected to reach CNY 440 billion by 2025, with a current growth rate of around 6% after experiencing fluctuations due to the pandemic [2] - The market structure is changing significantly, with professional sports categories growing faster than fashion sports, and the market concentration decreasing from 76% in 2019 to 68% in 2025 [2] Company Performance Review - From 2019 to 2021, the company experienced significant growth, with net profits reaching CNY 4 billion in 2021, a 5.6 times increase from three years prior [3] - However, from 2022 to 2024, the company faced challenges due to a cooling of the "national trend" and macroeconomic pressures, leading to a slowdown in revenue growth and a decline in net profit margins [3] - By 2025, the company is expected to recover through inventory management and channel optimization, alongside securing core marketing resources for the 2028 Olympic cycle [3] Product Cycle - The company's leading categories have shifted from basketball and sports lifestyle to running, which is expected to grow at a rate of 25%-45% in 2023-2024, becoming the largest category at 34% [4] - Basketball shoes have stabilized in price after a decline, while the running shoe matrix continues to expand, with new technologies expected to drive growth [4] Channel Strategy - Starting in 2024, the company plans to reduce the number of direct stores and control store sizes, which is projected to improve direct operating profit margins from around 10% in 2023 to mid-double digits by the first half of 2025 [5] - The introduction of specialized stores, such as "Dragon Stores" and outdoor stores, aims to tap into niche markets [5] Marketing Efforts - The company plans to increase its marketing expense ratio to low double digits starting in 2025, focusing on securing core Olympic resources and enhancing exposure for new products through events and athlete endorsements [6] - Social media engagement is also being strengthened, with increases in post frequency, follower count, and interaction metrics [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes the importance of strengthening its capital base as a solid support for achieving a leap in industry position, indicating a future focus on capital expansion while currently lacking a specific plan [1] Group 1 - The company plans to comprehensively assess relevant policies and market conditions to further enhance its capital strength [1] - There is currently no clear plan for additional capital injection [1]

Group 1: Company Innovation in Advisory Services - The company is actively promoting innovation in service models and product systems, implementing "full-account commission" advisory services to meet diverse client needs [1] - A new "advisory" service section has been launched on the JinTianSun APP, introducing products like "Stock Selection Treasure" and "North New Dynamic+" [2] - The company has established a wealth management brand "Leading 30," integrating product research, strategy production, and client needs [2] Group 2: Wealth Management Client Acquisition - Client acquisition for wealth management includes offline branches, online platforms, and banks, with online channels increasingly contributing to overall new client acquisition [2] - The quality of client acquisition is continuously improving [2] Group 3: Self-Managed Investment Strategy - The company will closely monitor changes in fundamental and market risk preferences, making investment decisions based on in-depth research [2] - A focus on stable investment and a robust asset allocation investment system is emphasized to enhance investment returns [2] Group 4: Asset Management Company Initiatives - The company’s asset management subsidiary has officially opened, focusing on increasing active management scale while emphasizing risk control and drawdown management [3] - Strategies include enhancing traditional fixed income business while exploring convertible bonds, derivatives, and REITs [3] Group 5: Dividend Policy - The company has maintained a consistent and stable cash dividend policy, achieving over 40% cash dividend ratio for four consecutive years since 2021, leading among large listed brokerages [3] - Future dividend policies will be developed in accordance with regulatory requirements and company bylaws, ensuring consistency and rationality in cash dividends [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities indicates a slow recovery in the restaurant industry, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 3.3% in national dining revenue from January to November 2025, lagging behind the 4.1% growth in retail sales [1][2] Group 1: Restaurant Industry Overview - The restaurant sector is experiencing a weak recovery, with major players employing diverse strategies to seek growth amid supply-side adjustments [2] - The online channel is seeing structural growth, particularly benefiting coffee and fast food segments, although brands are becoming more cautious in their approach to delivery services [2] - Brand building strategies are shifting from creating single-hit products to enhancing supply chain efficiency and focusing on member value [2] Group 2: Market Performance - Year-to-date, leading coffee and tea brands have seen significant stock price increases, with Gu Ming, Mi Xue Group, and Luckin Coffee rising by 185.8%, 45.4%, and 39.2% respectively, driven by increased consumer frequency and enthusiasm from franchisees [2] - Restaurant leaders show varied stock performance, with strong same-store sales and rapid expansion for brands like Guoquan, which increased by 98%, while others like Guangzhou Restaurant and Yum China saw more moderate gains [2] Group 3: Sub-industry Analysis - The ready-to-drink tea segment has benefited from the current delivery subsidy war, with seven listed tea brands reporting a 32.5% increase in revenue and a 58.0% increase in adjusted net profit for H1 2025, further accelerating from 2024 [3] - The restaurant sector's revenue growth has been stable due to various factors, including price reductions and policy disruptions, but net profit for H1 2025 increased by 7.5%, indicating improved operational efficiency [3] Group 4: Investment Framework - The valuation of leading tea and restaurant brands is shifting due to changes in performance expectations, with same-store revenue growth serving as a key valuation anchor [4] - Store expansion rates can amplify valuations, with aggressive expansion during growth periods potentially leading to valuation and performance boosts [4] - New product development is essential for providing fresh momentum, requiring supportive incentive structures to balance interests between new and existing brand teams [4]

Core Insights - The report highlights that the four active quantitative strategies have outperformed the stock-based index this week, with the technology innovation sector leading the gains [1][12] - The report tracks the performance of various active quantitative strategies, including the Excellent Fund Performance Enhancement Portfolio, the Exceeding Expectations Selected Portfolio, the Broker's Golden Stock Performance Enhancement Portfolio, and the Growth Stability Portfolio [12][13] Excellent Fund Performance Enhancement Portfolio - This portfolio achieved an absolute return of 3.01% this week and a year-to-date return of 32.05, ranking in the 48.34 percentile among active stock funds [1][23] - The strategy aims to outperform the median return of active stock funds by utilizing a quantitative approach based on the holdings of top-performing funds [3][19] Exceeding Expectations Selected Portfolio - The portfolio recorded an absolute return of 2.92% this week and 44.40% year-to-date, ranking in the 28.39 percentile among active stock funds [1][31] - It selects stocks based on exceeding expectations events and combines fundamental and technical analysis to identify stocks with strong support [4][24] Broker's Golden Stock Performance Enhancement Portfolio - This portfolio achieved an absolute return of 4.59% this week and 41.60% year-to-date, ranking in the 32.69 percentile among active stock funds [1][38] - The strategy focuses on optimizing a selection of stocks from the broker's golden stock pool to ensure alignment with the performance of active stock funds [5][59] Growth Stability Portfolio - The portfolio achieved an absolute return of 3.07% this week and 55.51% year-to-date, ranking in the 15.80 percentile among active stock funds [2][43] - It employs a two-dimensional evaluation system for growth stocks, prioritizing those closer to their earnings report dates to capture potential excess returns [6][39] Market Performance Overview - The median return for stocks this week was 0.97%, with 63% of stocks rising and 37% falling; for active stock funds, the median return was 2.78%, with 86% rising and 14% falling [2][44] - Year-to-date, the median return for stocks was 23.42%, with 80% rising and 20% falling; for active stock funds, the median return was 31.65%, with 97% rising and 3% falling [2][44]