记者丨 易妍君 编辑丨姜诗蔷 随着证券板块景气度上行，券商股东减持动作频频。 近日，千亿市值券商国信证券公告称，公司股东华润深国投信托有限公司（以下简称"华润信托"）、一汽股权投资（天津）有限公司（以下简 称"一汽投资"）均计划在未来3个月内以集中竞价方式减持公司股份，合计减持份额不超过7400万股（不超过国信证券当前总股本的0.72%）。 无独有偶，今年11月底，券商概念股东方财富预披露了高级管理人员拟减持公司股份的消息；方正证券、国盛证券先后在11月上旬发布了有关 股东减持计划的公告。 受访人士向21世纪经济报道记者指出，短 期少量减持并不代表股东不看好券商公司发展，更多是源于短期的资产配置需求。 并且，临近年 底，企业面临结算、偿债、补充流动资金等情况，而变现流动性较好的金融资产，是补充主业经营资金最快、最高效的手段。 值得注意的是， 近期，券商板块再度迎来政策利好 ，监管方面明确表态，将"对优质机构适当'松绑'，进一步优化风控指标，适度打开资本空 间和杠杆限制"。这些积极信号令市场对券商板块的修复行情充满期待。 股东减持为哪般？ 2025年以来，在行业整体业绩高增背景下，A股证券板块中的多数大中型券商 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities Asset Management Co., Ltd. has changed the management of its Guosen Cash Increase Currency Collective Asset Management Plan to Penghua Fund Management Co., Ltd., which will now be known as Penghua Cash Increase Money Market Fund, effective December 15, 2025 [1][5]. Group 1: Product Change Information - The management has changed from Guosen Securities Asset Management Co., Ltd. to Penghua Fund Management Co., Ltd. [1] - The product name has changed from Guosen Cash Increase Currency Collective Asset Management Plan to Penghua Cash Increase Money Market Fund [2] - The product type has changed from a currency collective asset management plan to a money market fund [3] - The duration of the fund has changed from a fixed term ending on October 31, 2025, to an indefinite term [4] Group 2: Fund Contract Effectiveness - The new fund contract for Penghua Cash Increase Money Market Fund will take effect on December 15, 2025, rendering the original collective asset management plan contract invalid [5] - Investors can redeem their holdings without any fees during the redemption period, and if they do not apply for redemption by December 12, 2025, their holdings will automatically convert to the new fund [6] - A promotional sales service fee rate of 0.01% per year will be implemented starting December 15, 2025 [6]

Group 1 - The report highlights the recent performance of various industries, with notable gains in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, electronics, and power equipment, while retail and real estate sectors faced declines [1][1][1] - The central economic work conference emphasized the importance of technological breakthroughs and supply-demand optimization, indicating a shift towards quality improvement in economic growth [11][12][19] - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing significant growth, with the establishment of a dedicated regulatory body and a notable increase in the commercial aerospace index, which has risen by 46.52% since April 7 [47][48] Group 2 - The report indicates a seasonal recovery in social financing, with November seeing an increase of 24,885 billion yuan, driven primarily by government bond issuance [4][7] - The credit environment is showing signs of marginal improvement, particularly in corporate loans, which increased by 6,100 billion yuan in November, reflecting a recovery in demand [5][6] - The report notes that the retail sector is undergoing a transformation, with a focus on quality, as highlighted by the Ministry of Commerce's emphasis on retail quality upgrades [1][1][1] Group 3 - The report discusses the rising interest in inquiry transfers, which have seen a significant increase in both project numbers and transfer scale, indicating a growing trend in the market [51][52] - The technology sector is expected to remain a key focus, with upcoming events such as the Volcano Engine FORCE conference anticipated to showcase advancements in AI and cloud services [56]

Core Conclusions - The large models possess certain technical analysis skills, with both DeepSeek V3.2 and Gemini 3 Pro able to perform tasks such as identifying tops and bottoms, drawing segments, and constructing central structures under appropriate prompts [1][2] - For "established" trends, the large models demonstrate a degree of technical analysis capability, with DeepSeek excelling in language organization and long text generation, while Gemini accurately identifies "central expansions" and "trend ambiguities" [1][2] - Gemini has an advantage in "ease of use," as its Nano Banana Pro can perform simple graphic annotations, making it slightly more convenient in practical applications [1] Evaluation Methodology - The evaluation of DeepSeek and Gemini's technical analysis capabilities follows the "Four Consistency Principles," ensuring data source uniformity, identical prompts, concurrent testing environments, and unified assessment standards [2][17] - The models are tested on standardized OHLC price data from the Shanghai Composite Index, with the same task instructions and evaluation criteria based on the original principles of the Chan theory [2][17] Technical Analysis Capabilities - Both models can accurately identify relationships and patterns in K-line data, with Gemini 3 Pro showing a slight edge in recognizing complex structures and providing clear outputs [3][12] - In analyzing established trends, both models demonstrate systematic capabilities, but there are discrepancies in defining fine concepts, particularly in classifying central structures and trend types [3][12] - Gemini 3 Pro is noted for its superior ability to capture the core logic of "divergence + central" in short-term predictions, aligning closely with actual market movements [3] Performance Comparison - The report compares the performance of DeepSeek and Gemini in various aspects of technical analysis, including K-line inclusion processing, top and bottom identification, segment classification, and overall analysis coherence [40] - DeepSeek identified 8 tops and 7 bottoms from 48 standard K-lines, while Gemini's results included a similar number of identified patterns, showcasing both models' capabilities in this area [23][30] - The evaluation highlights differences in the models' approaches to defining and processing K-line relationships, with Gemini's methodology being more rigorous in certain aspects [40]

Core Insights - The report concludes that both DeepSeek V3.2 and Gemini 3 Pro possess certain technical analysis capabilities, with Gemini showing superior usability and accuracy in identifying market trends and trading points [1][3]. Group 1: Technical Analysis Capabilities - Both models demonstrate a foundational understanding of technical analysis, effectively identifying patterns and structures in limited candlestick data [2][3]. - Gemini 3 Pro excels in recognizing complex relationships and patterns, providing clear and logical outputs, while DeepSeek V3.2 also performs well but with some discrepancies in finer details [2][3]. - The evaluation of both models is based on a controlled testing environment, ensuring fairness in data sources, task instructions, and assessment criteria [2][17]. Group 2: Performance Comparison - In analyzing established market trends, both models show systematic approaches, but they differ in their classification of market structures, leading to variations in their conclusions [3][41]. - Gemini 3 Pro has been noted for its superior predictive capabilities, particularly in identifying key market turning points and trends, aligning closely with actual market movements [3][41]. - The report highlights specific instances where Gemini's predictions were more accurate compared to DeepSeek, particularly in the context of market dynamics and trading strategies [3][41]. Group 3: Data and Methodology - The testing utilized standardized OHLC price data from the Shanghai Composite Index, ensuring consistency across both models [2][17]. - The core instructions for both models were identical, focusing on the execution of technical analysis tasks in a structured manner [2][17]. - The evaluation framework included multiple layers, assessing basic rule adherence, recursive structure analysis, dynamic judgment capabilities, and overall coherence of outputs [13][14].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The non-bank financial index increased by 0.81%, outperforming the CSI 300 index which decreased by 0.08%. The brokerage and insurance sectors continue to show good trends, with valuations at low levels and relatively stagnant performance throughout the year. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are beneficial for the equity market, directly favoring the profitability of securities firms' overseas businesses due to lower liability costs and asset expansion [4][5] - The average daily trading volume of stock funds reached 2.39 trillion, a 15.1% increase month-on-month, indicating a recovery in trading activity. The cumulative average daily trading volume for the year is 2.05 trillion, a 69.5% year-on-year increase [5] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission's recent positive stance signals a potential "policy easing period" for the industry, which may lead to an increase in leverage limits and support for the profitability of the securities industry. The report recommends focusing on strategic opportunities in undervalued leading companies in the brokerage and insurance sectors [5][6] Summary by Sections Brokerage Sector - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are favorable for the overseas business of brokerages, and new regulations are set to standardize fund sales practices. The report highlights three main lines of recommended stocks: Huatai Securities, Guotai Junan, and CICC for their advantages in overseas and institutional business; GF Securities and Dongfang Securities for their wealth management strengths; and Guosen Securities for its retail advantages [5][6][7] Insurance Sector - The liability side is expected to achieve a "good start," with the transformation of dividend insurance continuing to progress. The demand for "savings" from residents is likely to persist, and the insurance distribution channel is expected to maintain high growth. On the asset side, stable long-term interest rates and a favorable equity market are expected to boost investment returns in the medium to long term [6][7]

- The report tracks the performance of Guosen Financial Engineering's index enhancement portfolios, which are constructed based on multi-factor stock selection models targeting benchmarks such as CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and CSI A500 indices[10][11][13] - The construction process of the index enhancement portfolios includes three main components: return prediction, risk control, and portfolio optimization[11] - The report monitors the performance of common stock selection factors across different stock selection spaces, including CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI A500, and public fund heavy-holding indices, using single-factor Maximized Factor Exposure (MFE) portfolios[10][14][39] - The MFE portfolio construction process involves optimizing the portfolio to maximize single-factor exposure while controlling for constraints such as industry exposure, style exposure, stock weight deviation, component stock weight ratio, and turnover rate[39][40][41] - The optimization model for MFE portfolios is expressed as follows: $\begin{array}{ll}max&f^{T}\ w\\ s.t.&s_{l}\leq X(w-w_{b})\leq s_{h}\\ &h_{l}\leq H(w-w_{b})\leq h_{h}\\ &w_{l}\leq w-w_{b}\leq w_{h}\\ &b_{l}\leq B_{b}w\leq b_{h}\\ &\mathbf{0}\leq w\leq l\\ &\mathbf{1}^{T}\ w=1\end{array}$ where `f` represents factor values, `w` is the stock weight vector, and constraints include style exposure (`X`), industry exposure (`H`), stock weight deviation (`w`), component stock weight ratio (`B_b`), and turnover limits[39][40] - The report highlights the performance of various factors in different stock selection spaces, such as CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI A500, and public fund heavy-holding indices, with factors like "3-month earnings revisions," "standardized unexpected earnings," and "single-quarter ROE" showing strong performance in certain spaces[17][19][21][23][26] - Public fund index enhancement products are tracked, including CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and CSI A500 enhancement products, with their excess returns analyzed over different time periods[27][31][33][35][38]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the frequent share reduction actions by shareholders of brokerage firms amid rising market conditions in the securities sector [1][2][3] - Guosen Securities announced that its shareholders, China Resources Shen Guo Trust Co., Ltd. and FAW Equity Investment (Tianjin) Co., Ltd., plan to reduce their holdings by a total of up to 74 million shares, representing 0.72% of the company's total share capital [1][2] - The reasons for the share reductions are attributed to short-term asset allocation needs and liquidity requirements as companies approach year-end financial settlements [1][3] Group 2 - The securities sector has seen significant stock price increases, with Guosen Securities experiencing a year-to-date increase of 19.47% as of December 10, ranking 11th among securities firms [2][6] - The shareholders involved in the reduction, China Resources Shen Guo Trust and FAW Investment, hold 2.137 billion shares and 114 million shares of Guosen Securities, respectively, with ownership percentages of 20.87% and 1.11% [2] - The recent policy signals from regulators indicate a favorable environment for the brokerage sector, with plans to "loosen" regulations for quality institutions and optimize risk control indicators [1][7][10] Group 3 - The reduction plans by shareholders are not indicative of a lack of confidence in the brokerage firms' future, but rather a strategic move for liquidity and asset management [3][6] - Other brokerage firms, such as Dongfang Fortune and Guosheng Securities, have also announced share reduction plans by executives and shareholders for similar reasons [4][5] - The overall sentiment in the market remains optimistic, with expectations for continued recovery in the brokerage sector driven by favorable policies and market conditions [7][10][11]

供需双增 猪价延续震荡 研究所 周度分析与展望 研究所 过去一周生猪现货震荡略有反弹，因消费季节性走强而供应稳定提升，期货先涨后落，周五又回到周初附近，基差继续偏低位 震荡，LH01较低价交割区仍升水600元左右。基本面来看，从仔猪出生数量来看，一直到明年4月供应都处于稳定增加的趋势 中，继续后期压制猪价的上方空间。短期来看，12月以来规模场出栏增量有限，但散户及二育猪出栏积极性增加，较好的的 匹配了消费的季节性增长。目前二育栏舍利用率继续下降，但读数仍略高于上年同期，同时行业出栏均重刚刚拐头，肥标猪价 差偏弱，行业季节性降均重还会继续推进；而目前离农历过年还较远，拉长了旺季窗口，降低了供应压力集中释放的风险，预 计春节前现货延续偏震荡运行的趋势，但基于仔猪出生数据的推算，春节后淡季压力仍较大。更长期来看，样本数据显示能繁 母猪存栏继续下滑，有利于支撑远端合约的价格重心。操作上，近端震荡对待。远端宽幅震荡思路下把握逢低波段做多的机会 ——国信期货生猪周报 2025年12月12日 研究所 1 周度分析与展望 目 录 2 关键数据与图表 CONTENTS 。 1.生猪期货行情 研究所 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育 ...

12月9日，国信证券发布公告称，董事会已审议通过相关议案，同意推荐顾湘晴担任万和证券总经理人选。 根据中国证券业协会从业人员执业信息，顾湘晴是一名国信证券"老员工"，供职已超过20年。 2014年顾湘晴获批成为国信证券四川第二分公司负责人，后担任四川分公司总经理。2020年左右，顾湘晴回到国信证券总部，历任机构事业部副总裁、资产 托管部总经理。 8月21日，证监会发布批复称，核准国信证券成为万和证券主要股东，核准深圳市投资控股有限公司成为万和证券实际控制人。 ...