来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 下游的储能需求正以前所未有的速度爆发，上游的矿产巨头却正在收紧供给。全球能源转型的"绿色心 脏"——锂、钴、镍等关键金属，正站在一轮新周期的起点上，如何重新定义能源金属行业的价值与价 格？请看机构最新研判。 近期，能源金属板块热度攀升，核心驱动力来自"供给格局重塑"与"颠覆性需求爆发"的双重催化。一方 面，全球主要资源国（如刚果金对钴、印尼对镍）正通过配额、许可等政策主动调控供给，意在掌握资 源定价主动权；另一方面，以储能为核心的全球新型电力系统建设，正成为拉动锂、铜等金属需求的强 大引擎，打开了长期增长的想象空间。 从供给格局看，资源国政策正成为影响全球供应的关键变量。逆全球化背景下，资源自主可控成为各国 战略焦点。刚果金政府通过配额制度限制钴供给，推动钴价中枢稳步抬升。印尼政府则通过调整生产配 额来管理镍的供给节奏。此外，国内相关部门也加强了对稀土等战略资源的生产指标管控。 而"储能需求"正成为改写能源金属长期需求曲线的关键因素。如果说新能源汽车定义了上一轮锂电金属 的景气周期，那么储能则正在开启一个规模更大、增速更快的"第二增长曲线"。机构预测，2025年储能 领域对碳酸锂 ...

据交易所数据显示，12月17日，养老金概念上涨1.2%，今日主力资金净流入10.89亿元，概念股85只上 涨，13只下跌。 序号代码名称最新价涨跌幅主力净流入主力净占比1600487亨通光电21.678.845.06亿元13.58%2300475香 农芯创137.566.723.28亿元7.42%3000657中钨高新28.519.442.81亿元6.06%4002756永兴材料48.173.51.73 亿元14.31%5002378章源钨业14.274.089800.88万元6.41%6000630铜陵有色5.433.637970.05万元 5.82%7601519大智慧13.252.956040.56万元8.03%8600114东睦股份29.782.375450.39万元13.07%9001267 汇绿生态22.173.75289.29万元7.01%10000776广发证券21.833.075129.45万元2.38% 主力资金净流入居前的分别为亨通光电（5.06亿元）、香农芯创（3.28亿元）、中钨高新（2.81亿 元）、永兴材料（1.73亿元）、章源钨业（9800.88万元）。 来源：市场资讯 ...

今年以来永兴材料已经2次登上龙虎榜，最近一次登上龙虎榜为10月31日。 资料显示，永兴特种材料科技股份有限公司位于浙江省湖州市霅水桥路618号，成立日期2000年7月19 日，上市日期2015年5月15日，公司主营业务涉及不锈钢及特殊合金材料等特种金属材料棒线材的研 发、生产和销售。主营业务收入构成为：棒材47.71%，线材24.66%，碳酸锂20.10%，其他7.53%。 12月18日，永兴材料盘中下跌2.01%，截至14:00，报47.20元/股，成交5.83亿元，换手率3.13%，总市值 254.46亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出3939.98万元，特大单买入1972.35万元，占比3.38%，卖出4693.75万 元，占比8.05%；大单买入9972.11万元，占比17.11%，卖出1.12亿元，占比19.20%。 永兴材料今年以来股价涨27.79%，近5个交易日涨2.41%，近20日跌13.79%，近60日涨35.38%。 截至9月30日，永兴材料股东户数5.25万，较上期减少2.28%；人均流通股7401股，较上期增加2.33%。 2025年1月-9月，永兴材料实现营业收入55.47亿元，同 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced narrow fluctuations, while the ChiNext Index rose over 1% on December 17. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.04 trillion yuan, a decrease of 103.9 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. A total of 3,724 stocks declined, while 1,578 stocks increased [1][2]. Sector Performance - The lithium battery industry chain led the market gains, with Tianhua New Energy (300390) rising over 13%, Jinyuan Co. (000546) achieving two consecutive limit-ups in four days, and Shengxin Lithium Energy (002240) hitting the daily limit. Hong Kong-listed Tianqi Lithium (002466) and Ganfeng Lithium (002460) both increased by over 5% [3][4]. Lithium Market Insights - On December 17, lithium carbonate futures surged over 7%, reaching a new high since May 2024. Following the shutdown of mining operations by CATL (300750), the "Lithium Capital of Asia," Yichun, plans to cancel 27 mining rights. Analysts noted that lithium carbonate futures prices have risen over 70% from their low point earlier in the year, with market expectations for lithium demand significantly improving following the release of November battery sales data [3][4]. Rare Metals and Other Sectors - The optical module sector saw a significant rebound, with major players like Guangku Technology (300620) leading with over a 5% increase. Rare metal stocks also strengthened, with Zhongtung High-tech (000657) nearing a limit-up and reaching a historical high. Tungsten powder prices increased by 10,000 yuan per ton, now priced at 1 million yuan per ton, reflecting a 216.5% rise since the beginning of the year [5]. New Stock Performance - Muxi Co., known as the "second domestic GPU stock" and the "second most expensive new stock of the year," saw its shares soar over 700%, with a market capitalization nearing 335 billion yuan, surpassing Moer Thread. The stock's price reached 719.8 yuan, with potential profits exceeding 300,000 yuan per share [7]. Precious Metals Update - Silver prices reached a new historical high, with spot silver rising over 3% to 65.86 USD per ounce. The main contract for silver futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by over 4%. Gold also saw a sharp increase, touching 4,320 USD, with the World Gold Council projecting an average annual return of over 5% for gold from 2025 to 2040 [7][8].

Core Insights - The rare metals sector in the A-share market experienced significant gains, with several stocks reaching new highs and notable increases in share prices [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Zhongtung High-tech reached its daily limit and set a historical high, with a price increase of 9.79% and a total market capitalization of 65.2 billion [2] - Zhongmin Resources and Xiamen Tungsten both saw price increases exceeding 6%, with year-to-date gains of 89.47% and 122.63% respectively [2] - Other notable performers included Yahua Group, Tianqi Lithium, and Tibet Mining, all of which recorded price increases of over 5% [1][2] Group 2: Market Capitalization and Year-to-Date Gains - The total market capitalization of the top rare metal stocks varied, with Ganfeng Lithium leading at 131.7 billion, followed by Tianqi Lithium at 86.8 billion [2] - Year-to-date performance showed substantial growth across the sector, with Zhongtung High-tech leading at 214.71% increase, indicating strong investor interest and market confidence [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market for rare metal stocks has seen a significant rally, with several companies reaching new highs and experiencing substantial gains [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Zhongtung High-tech reached its daily limit and set a historical high [1] - Zhongmin Resources, Xiamen Tungsten, and Rongjie Co. all increased by over 6% [1] - Yahua Group, Tianqi Lithium, Tibet Mining, and Zhangyuan Tungsten all rose by over 5% [1] - Ganfeng Lithium, Dongfang Tantalum, and Yongxing Materials increased by over 4% [1]

Group 1 - The lithium mining sector saw a significant increase, with related indices rising nearly 5% as of the report date [1] - Notable stock performances included Guocheng Mining and Jinyuan Co., both hitting the daily limit up, while Tianhua New Energy surged over 10% [1] - The lithium index reached 6504.79, marking a 4.79% increase [2] Group 2 - Lithium carbonate futures experienced a rise of over 6%, reaching 107,500 yuan per ton, the highest since May 2024, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 40% [3][4] - The trading volume for lithium carbonate futures was reported at 362,400 contracts, indicating strong market activity [4]

| 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 今日换手率（%） | 主力资金流量（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600490 鹏欣资源 | | -0.13 | 5.10 | 10587.49 | | 002378 章源钨业 | | 0.81 | 6.26 | 8819.60 | | 002756 永兴材料 | | 3.19 | 4.42 | 3248.60 | | 000657 中钨高新 | | 3.33 | 7.19 | 2802.97 | | 002237 恒邦股份 | | -4.69 | 2.97 | 2626.15 | | 601069 西部黄金 | | -7.61 | 3.12 | 1609.15 | | 002192 融捷股份 | | -0.81 | 4.64 | 551.43 | | 002182 宝武镁业 | | -3.25 | 1.93 | 485.29 | | 600961 株冶集团 | | -5.59 | 2.37 | 468.99 | | 300855 图南股份 | | -2.91 | 3.99 | 343.54 | | 002295 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - Short-term lithium prices are expected to remain volatile, with a positive outlook on antimony, cobalt, tungsten, and tin due to a reassessment of strategic metal values [1][2][7] - Supply concerns in the nickel market are supported by the lack of new approvals from Indonesia's RKAB, which may lead to price stabilization [1][28] - The cobalt market is expected to see continued price increases due to structural supply tightness, with Congo's export regulations impacting availability [2][5][16] - Antimony prices are anticipated to converge towards higher overseas prices due to export controls and tight domestic supply [6][17] - The lithium market is experiencing a strong demand backdrop, with expectations of continued inventory depletion supporting prices [7][17] - The rare earth market is tightening due to Vietnam's export ban, which is expected to support prices [9][18] - Tin prices are supported by ongoing supply concerns from overseas sources, particularly from Myanmar and Congo [11][20] - Tungsten prices are expected to remain supported due to supply constraints and regulatory controls [12][21] - The uranium market is facing supply tightness, which is likely to support prices amid geopolitical uncertainties [14][22] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry Update - Nickel prices are under pressure due to stable demand but cautious purchasing from smelters, with LME nickel closing at $14,420 per ton, down 2.04% [1][28] - Cobalt prices are expected to rise further, with Congo's export regulations causing supply constraints [2][5][16] Antimony Industry Update - Domestic antimony prices are lower compared to international prices, but supply tightness is expected to support future price increases [6][17] Lithium Industry Update - Lithium carbonate prices have increased, with a strong demand outlook from the electric vehicle sector [7][17] Rare Earth Industry Update - Vietnam's recent export ban on rare earths is expected to tighten global supply and support prices [9][18] Tin Industry Update - Tin prices are supported by supply concerns from Myanmar and Congo, with LME tin prices rising to $41,905 per ton [11][20] Tungsten Industry Update - Tungsten prices are expected to remain high due to supply constraints and regulatory measures [12][21] Uranium Industry Update - The uranium market is facing supply tightness, with prices supported by geopolitical factors and production delays [14][22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for all key companies listed, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt [2][4]. Core Views - The report highlights that the metal prices are expected to continue rising due to the resonance of domestic and foreign fiscal and monetary policies, with a focus on the upcoming economic growth under the "14th Five-Year Plan" [8][21]. - The report emphasizes the strong demand in the lithium battery sector and the ongoing supply constraints in cobalt, indicating a bullish outlook for energy metals [8][83]. Summary by Sections Industry and Stock Performance - The report notes a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.34% and a 1.10% drop in the SW Nonferrous Index during the week [8]. - Key stocks in the nonferrous metal sector showed varied performance, with significant recommendations for companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum [2][11]. Base Metals - Aluminum prices decreased by 0.88% to $2875 per ton, while copper prices fell by 0.96% to $11552.5 per ton, with zinc prices increasing by 1.31% to $3139 per ton [12][21]. - The report indicates that the domestic aluminum production capacity is stable at 44.39 million tons, with a slight increase in operational capacity due to high profits [21][23]. Precious Metals - Gold prices increased by 2.42% to $4329.80 per ounce, and silver prices rose by 5.59% to $62.09 per ounce, driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [12][68]. - The report suggests a bullish outlook for gold and silver prices, supported by central bank purchases and weakening dollar credit [68][69]. Energy Metals - The lithium market is experiencing stable growth in supply, while demand from the energy storage sector continues to rise, leading to a positive outlook for lithium prices [8][83]. - Cobalt supply remains tight, with the Congo's cobalt export quotas expected to impact the market dynamics positively [8][83]. Other Minor Metals - The report discusses the fluctuations in prices for minor metals, including molybdenum and tungsten, with significant price increases noted for tungsten [15][83]. - The overall sentiment in the minor metals market remains cautious, with a focus on supply-demand dynamics and policy changes [55][85].