Core Viewpoint - Zimbabwe's sudden ban on lithium ore and concentrate exports has created significant disruptions in the global lithium supply chain, affecting nearly 20% of China's lithium raw material supply and potentially leading to a supply gap of approximately 14,000 to 15,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent per month starting in May 2026 [1][3][4]. Group 1: Impact of Zimbabwe's Ban - Zimbabwe's Ministry of Mines announced an immediate suspension of all lithium ore and concentrate exports, including shipments already at sea, to strengthen mineral regulation and promote domestic processing [1][3]. - In 2025, China imported 7.75 million tons of lithium concentrate, with 1.2 million tons (19%) coming from Zimbabwe, highlighting the critical role of Zimbabwe in China's lithium supply [3]. - The ban is expected to lead to a significant increase in lithium prices, with domestic carbonate lithium futures prices surging to over 171,440 yuan per ton, reflecting a nearly 17% increase in just two trading days [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Opportunities - The immediate market reaction saw a spike in lithium prices, with the benchmark price for battery-grade lithium carbonate reaching 162,000 yuan per ton, an increase of over 8% since the beginning of the month [4]. - Companies with integrated mining and processing capabilities in Zimbabwe are positioned to benefit from the ban, as they can still apply for export licenses while others face supply constraints [6]. - A total of 13 domestic companies with lithium carbonate production or lithium mining resources are now in the spotlight, with 7 of them forecasting significant profit increases for 2025 [7]. Group 3: Company Profiles and Strategies - The first tier of companies, termed "ban immune," includes Huayou Cobalt, which has established deep processing capacity in Zimbabwe and is set to produce lithium sulfate, allowing it to circumvent the export ban [9]. - Zhongjin Lingnan has a strong position with its control over the Bikita lithium mine, which allows it to apply for export licenses despite the ban, and it has a stockpile of 150,000 tons of lithium concentrate to buffer against short-term export restrictions [11]. - The second tier includes resource giants like Ganfeng Lithium, which has diversified global resources and is expected to see a significant increase in production from 200,000 tons to 500,000 tons by 2026, benefiting from rising lithium prices [11][13]. Group 4: Long-term Industry Implications - The ban is prompting a reevaluation of companies with overseas resources, local processing capabilities, or stable domestic sources, as their strategic value is being reassessed in the market [17]. - The surge in lithium carbonate futures and the rising stock prices of lithium mining companies reflect this market reassessment and the potential for long-term growth in the sector [17].

供给：锂价反弹刺激供给，但短期增量有限 智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，动力电池和储能电池双驱动，预计2026年全球锂需求有望达 到约200万吨LCE。另国内锂电池出口退税下调，短期或推动锂电抢出口，需求前置下或将带动锂行业 供需边际趋紧。经历过连续几个月的去库存之后，目前国内锂盐库存周期仅不足一个月时间，在供需如 此紧张的情况下，库存矛盾将愈加凸显。该行看好锂价在近期进一步上行，预计短期有望涨至20万元/ 吨以上。 国信证券主要观点如下： 相关标的：赣锋锂业、天齐锂业、盐湖股份、中矿资源、永兴材料、华友钴业、盛新锂能、雅化集团、 大中矿业、国城矿业 风险提示：锂终端需求不及预期;全球锂资源开发速度超预期。 动力电池和储能电池双驱动，预计2026年全球锂需求有望达到约200万吨LCE。储能电池需求自2025年 下半年开始显著超预期，年初也保持旺盛的需求状态，预计全年出货量可以达到900Gwh左右，同比增 速近50%;动力电池需求年初遇冷，主要是受补贴退坡和淡季消费等因素影响，预计从3月份开始有望迅 速回暖，全年仍有望实现20%左右增长。另外，国内锂电池出口退税下调，自2026年4月1日至12月31日 ...

证券研究报告·行业研究·电力设备与新能源行业 需求超预期，开启26-27年向上新周期 ——碳酸锂专题 电新首席证券分析师 ：曾朵红 执业证书编号：S0600516080001 联系邮箱：zengdh@dwzq.com.cn 电动车首席证券分析师 ：阮巧燕 执业证书编号：S0600517120002 联系邮箱：ruanqy@dwzq.com.cn 联系电话：021-60199793 2026年2月26日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 1 摘要 注：全文的"预计"若无特别说明，均为东吴证券研究所预测 ◆ 供给：增量供给为非矿、澳矿、国内盐湖，增量多集中于26H2。中性情况下，26年全球锂矿供给214万吨， 新增44万吨，若津巴布韦锂精矿出口恢复低于预期，则实际新增更低；27年262万吨，新增48万吨；28年 303万吨，新增41万吨。其中，26年增量主要来自：国内盐湖新增8.4万吨（麻米措、察尔汗、拉果措）、国 内矿山6.6万吨（枧下窝复产、新疆红柳滩、党坝、加达、湘源矿）、海外盐湖6.9万吨（3Q、Mariana和 CO）、澳矿的7.8万吨（泰利森和皮尔巴拉以及Marion等矿山达产）、非矿11.5万吨（中 ...

当地时间2月25日，津巴布韦矿业部部长波利特·坎巴穆拉突然宣布，立即暂停所有未加工矿产和锂精矿的出口，包括目前在运输中的货物，解除时间将另行 通知。 这一举措的执行力度远远超过了市场预期，迅速搅动了全球锂资源供给格局。 消息一出，美股锂生产商Sigma Lithium涨近30%，富美实涨8%，智利矿业化工涨3.68%。 A股市场中，锂矿概念股集体活跃，科力远、金圆股份涨停，盐湖股份涨超8%，融捷股份涨4.5%，天齐锂业、藏格矿业、西藏矿业、永兴材料涨超3%。 | 代码 | 名称 *● | | 最新 涨幅%↓ | 涨跌 | 总量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300267 | 尔康制药 圆 ◆ * | 4.39 | 14.03 | 0.54 | 237万 | | 600478 | 科力远 E + | 8.14 | 10.00 | 0.74 | 66.2万 | | 000546 | 金圆股份 +1 | 6.83 | 9.98 | 0.62 | 12.7万 | | 000792 | 盐湖股份 圆 ◆ * | 39.12 | 8.07 | 2.92 | 129万 ...

格隆汇2月26日｜A股市场稀有金属股集体走强，其中，章源钨业、云南锗业涨停，中钨高新涨超8%，东方 钽业涨超6%，翔鹭钨业、融捷股份、天齐锂业、永兴材料涨超4%，厦门钨业、赣锋锂业、西藏矿业涨超 3%。 另外还值得注意的是，白宫拟利用美国防部开发的AI模型，为全球关键矿产贸易制定参考价格，将率先制 定锗、镓、锑、钨的参考价格。 | | | | | 稀有金属板块个股 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 序号 代码 | | 名称 | | 涨幅% ↓ | 总市值 | 年初至今涨幅% | | 1 | 002378 | 章源钨业 | 1 | 10.01 | 443 Z | 160.30 | | 2 | 002428 | 云南猪业 | 1 | 10.01 | 290亿 | 39.81 | | 3 | 000657 | 中钨高新 | 1 | 8.11 | 1449 Z | 129.52 | | ব | 000962 | 东方铝业 | 1 | 6.70 | 276亿 | 65.64 | | 5 | 002842 | 翔鹭铝业 | 1 | 4.75 | 129 ...

2月26日，A股市场锂矿概念股集体高开，其中，金圆股份涨停，科力远逼近涨停，江特电机涨超7%， 大中矿业、融捷股份、和邦生物、国城矿业、天华新能涨超6%，天齐锂业、永兴材料涨超5%，盐湖股 份、赣锋锂业、西藏矿业、西藏城投涨超4%。 消息面上，2月25日，津巴布韦突发声明，宣布立即暂停所有锂原矿及锂精矿出口，覆盖已启运在途货 物，旨在加强矿产监管与问责。根据津巴布韦矿业部声明，未来仅持有效采矿权及获批选矿厂的企业具 备出口资格，禁止代理及第三方贸易商出口。企业申请时需提交省级矿业办关于选矿能力及合规的建议 信，并申报矿物成分。违规者（如续用过期代办）将吊销出口许可乃至采矿权。 碳酸锂主力合约今日盘初一度大涨近12%，报187700元/吨。 津巴布韦此次锂矿禁令较原计划2027年全面禁运政策大幅提前，引发全球锂供应链扰动。在机构看来， 此举直接缩减了全球锂产量供给，加剧精矿短缺，短期供给缺口放大，锂价弹性增强。 | 代码 | 名称 | | 涨幅% ↓ | 总市值 | 年初至今涨幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300267 | 尔康制药 | -06- | ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Zimbabwe has announced an immediate suspension of all lithium ore and lithium concentrate exports, which has led to a significant increase in the stock prices of lithium-related companies in the A-share market [1][2]. - The suspension aims to strengthen mineral regulation and accountability, allowing only companies with valid mining rights and approved processing plants to export [1][2]. - Lithium carbonate futures surged nearly 12% to 187,700 yuan per ton following the announcement, indicating heightened market volatility and demand for lithium [1][2]. Group 2 - Zimbabwe's ban on lithium exports has been implemented much earlier than the previously planned full ban in 2027, causing disruptions in the global lithium supply chain [2]. - This action is expected to directly reduce global lithium production, exacerbating the shortage of concentrates and increasing price elasticity in the short term [2]. - As of January to December 2025, China imported approximately 7.751 million tons of lithium concentrate, a year-on-year increase of about 39.4%, primarily from Australia, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria [1].

有色金属周报 20260219 美国非农超预期+春节来临，金属价格震荡 glmszqdatemark 贵金属：美国 1 月非农数据超预期，降息预期回落，美伊谈判取得阶段性进展但未来变数 较大，长期来看央行购金+美元信用弱化主线难以根本性扭转，继续坚定看好金价上行。 美国 1 月非农新增就业 13 万个，显著高于市场预期的 7 万个，失业率降至 4.3%，低于预 期的 4.4%，降息预期回落，美国和伊朗就核问题进行接触，双方称谈判取得进展，美伊冲 突释放阶段性缓和信号，压制避险需求，但未来双方局势不确定较大，中长期央行购金+美 元信用弱化仍为主线，看好金银价格中枢上移。白银价格可能依然走弱，这轮周期使得光 伏需求承压，银浆成本占比飙升，未来贱金属化成趋势。重点推荐：紫金黄金国际、中国 黄金国际、西部黄金、山东黄金、招金矿业、中金黄金、赤峰黄金、潼关黄金、万国黄金 集团，建议关注灵宝黄金、大唐黄金和集海资源等，白银标的推荐兴业银锡、盛达资源。 风险提示：需求不及预期、供给超预期释放、海外地缘政治风险。 重点公司盈利预测、估值与评级 | 代码 | 简称 | 股价（元） | | EPS（元） | | | PE（X） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt, among others [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the U.S. non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations with an addition of 130,000 jobs in January, leading to a decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.3%. This has resulted in a cooling of interest rate cut expectations [2]. - The report expresses a positive long-term outlook for gold prices, driven by central bank purchases and a weakening U.S. dollar credit [2]. - The report notes that silver prices may continue to weaken due to pressure from photovoltaic demand and rising costs in silver paste, indicating a trend towards cheaper metals [2]. Summary by Sections Industry and Stock Performance - The report indicates that the SW Non-ferrous Index rose by 1.67% during the week, while the COMEX gold price increased by 1.51% and COMEX silver decreased by 0.33% [9]. - The report provides a detailed performance analysis of key stocks, with several companies recommended for investment based on their earnings forecasts and valuations [3]. Base Metals - The report discusses the fluctuations in base metal prices, noting that aluminum prices have been under pressure due to high inventory levels and seasonal demand declines as the Chinese New Year approaches [25][26]. - Copper prices experienced volatility, initially rising but later falling due to strong U.S. employment data and cautious market sentiment ahead of the holiday [45]. Precious Metals and Minor Metals - The report states that gold and silver prices have seen fluctuations, with gold averaging 1101.52 CNY per gram, down 0.83% from the previous week, while silver prices fell significantly [74]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing geopolitical tensions and their impact on precious metal prices, with a focus on the potential for price recovery as market conditions evolve [78]. Energy Metals - The report highlights a clear shortage in the energy metals sector, particularly lithium and cobalt, with expectations for price increases post-holiday as demand recovers [9]. - Nickel prices are anticipated to rise due to the implementation of Indonesia's nickel ore export quota policy [9].

| 权益类证券大宗交易(协议交易) | | | | | | | 团 下载 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 成交价格 | 成交量 | 成交金额 买方营业部 | | 卖方营业部 | | | | | (元) | (万股/万份) | (万元) | | | | 2026-02-25 | 002756 | 永兴材料 | 55.57 | 75.03 | 4,169.62 发证券股份有限 | | 广发证券股份有限 | | | | | | | 公司深圳壹方中心 | | 公司杭州金华南路 | | | | | | | 工艺 地 高品 山 立即 | 江北高山加 | | 2月25日，永兴材料大宗交易成交75.03万股，成交额4169.62万元，占当日总成交额的4.11%，成交价 55.57元，较市场收盘价56.99元折价2.49%。 ...