1 证券代码：002946 证券简称：新乳业 新希望乳业股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2024-004 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | □ 特定对象调研 | □ 分析师会议 | | 投资者关系活 | □ 媒体采访 | ■ 业绩说明会 | | 动类别 | □ 新闻发布会 | □ 路演活动 | | | □ ...

证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2024 年 09 月 03 日 新乳业（002946.SZ） 低温品类稳健增长，盈利提升持续兑现 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------|-----------------------------------------|----------| | | | | | | | | | | 财务指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 买入（维持评级） | | | 营业收入（百万元） | 10,006 | 10,987 | 11,887 | 12,966 | 14,201 | 股票信息 | | | 增长率 yoy （ % ） | 11.6 | 9.8 | 8.2 | 9.1 | 9.5 | | | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 361 | 431 | 555 | 679 | 815 | 行业 | ...

公 司 研 究 食 品 饮 料 新乳业 沪深300 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年09月03日 公 司 简 评 [Table_invest] 买入（维持） 报告原因：业绩点评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 姚星辰 S0630523010001 yxc@longone.com.cn | --- | --- | |---------------------------|------------| | 数据日期 Table_cominfo] | 2024/09/03 | | 收盘价 | 9.32 | | 总股本 ( 万股 ) | 86,067 | | 流通 A 股 /B 股 ( 万股 ) | 85,158/0 | | 资产负债率 (%) | 69.59% | | 市净率 ( 倍 ) | 2.90 | | 净资产收益率 ( 加权 ) | 11.13 | | 12 个月内最高 / 最低价 | 15.49/7.88 | [Table_QuotePic] -57% -47% -38% -28% -19% -9% 0% 9% 23-09 23-12 24-03 24-06 [相关研究 Tabl ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company's low-temperature business is performing well, with profitability continuing to enhance. In H1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.364 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.25%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 296 million yuan, up 25.26% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company is successfully expanding its D2C channel, with e-commerce revenue in H1 2024 reaching 515 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.42% [1]. - The gross margin improved due to a decline in raw milk prices and product mix optimization, with H1 2024 gross margin at 29.23%, up 2.23 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company reported revenues of 5.364 billion yuan, with a net profit of 296 million yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 313 million yuan, reflecting increases of 25.26% and 36.39% year-on-year respectively [1]. - For Q2 2024, the company achieved revenues of 2.751 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.94% year-on-year, while net profit rose by 17.72% to 207 million yuan [1]. - The company’s revenue from liquid milk, milk powder, and other products in H1 2024 was 4.844 billion yuan, 35 million yuan, and 486 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +0.54%, -15.20%, and +10.64% [1]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for H1 2024 was 29.23%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.23 percentage points, primarily due to lower raw milk prices and improved product mix [2]. - The net profit margin for H1 2024 was 5.53%, reflecting an increase of 1.19 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Revenue Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits of 550 million yuan, 663 million yuan, and 742 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.64 yuan, 0.77 yuan, and 0.86 yuan [2][3]. - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 14, 12, and 10 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, reflecting its strong operational resilience and clear five-year strategic plan [2][5] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 5.36 billion yuan in 24H1, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, with net profit attributable to the parent company reaching 300 million yuan, up 25.3% year-on-year [1] - The company's low-temperature liquid milk segment stabilized, outperforming other leading dairy companies, with low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt products showing significant growth [1] - The company's gross profit margin improved to 29.1%, driven by favorable raw milk prices and product structure optimization, while sales and management expense ratios decreased [1] - The company's fresh strategy is expected to continue driving growth, with low-temperature product penetration and DTC channels serving as key growth engines [1] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 24H1 was 5.36 billion yuan, with Q2 revenue at 2.75 billion yuan, a slight year-on-year decline of 0.9% [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 24H1 was 300 million yuan, with Q2 net profit at 210 million yuan, up 17.7% year-on-year [1] - The company's net profit margin for 24Q2 was 7.5%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [1] Product and Regional Performance - Low-temperature fresh milk products, such as the "Golden 24 Hours" series, saw over 30% year-on-year growth, while low-temperature yogurt and flavored milk products also experienced strong growth [1] - Regional performance varied, with strong growth in East China (+20.2%) and North China (+23.4%), while Southwest and Northwest regions faced declines due to weaker demand for ambient liquid milk [1] Future Outlook - The company's fresh strategy is expected to drive continued revenue growth, with raw milk cost advantages likely to persist in 24H2 [1] - The company aims to achieve a five-year doubling of net profit margin through improved gross margins, upstream optimization, and enhanced cost efficiency [1] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow to 11.19 billion yuan in 2024, 11.80 billion yuan in 2025, and 12.59 billion yuan in 2026, with net profit expected to reach 549 million yuan, 653 million yuan, and 772 million yuan respectively [3] - The company's PE ratio is forecasted to decrease from 14X in 2024 to 10X in 2026, reflecting strong earnings growth [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate-A" investment rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [4]. Core Views - The company has outperformed the industry in terms of performance, with a focus on low-temperature fresh milk and specialty yogurt, which have driven its growth despite increased competition [2][4]. - The company is expected to achieve high-quality development even under industry pressure, with a strong certainty of profit improvement [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company reported revenue of 5.364 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.25%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 296 million yuan, up 25.26% [1][2]. - In Q2 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.751 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.94% year-on-year, while net profit rose by 17.72% to 207 million yuan [1][2]. Product and Regional Performance - In H1 2024, the company's revenue from liquid milk, milk powder, and other businesses was 4.844 billion yuan, 35 million yuan, and 486 million yuan, respectively, with growth rates of +0.54%, -15.20%, and +10.64% [2]. - Revenue by region showed varied performance, with notable growth in North China (+20.21%) while Southwest and Northwest regions faced challenges due to the high proportion of ambient milk sales [2]. Cost and Profitability - The company's gross margin improved in H1 2024, with gross and net margins increasing by 1.26 and 1.06 percentage points to 29.23% and 5.53%, respectively [2]. - The decline in raw milk prices contributed to the improvement in profitability, and the company is expected to continue enhancing its profit levels through ongoing efficiency initiatives [2][4]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 11.235 billion yuan, 11.955 billion yuan, and 12.831 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.3%, 6.4%, and 7.3% respectively [4]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 550 million yuan, 659 million yuan, and 795 million yuan, reflecting growth rates of 27.8%, 19.8%, and 20.6% [4].

证券代码：002946 证券简称：新乳业 公告编号：2024-057 债券代码：128142 债券简称：新乳转债 新希望乳业股份有限公司 关于预计触发董事会审议下修可转债转股价格条件 的提示性公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确和完整， 没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示： 1、股票代码：002946 股票简称：新乳业 2、债券代码：128142 债券简称：新乳转债 3、当期转股价格：人民币 18.23 元/股 4、转股时间：2021 年 6 月 24 日至 2026 年 12 月 17 日 5、根据《新希望乳业股份有限公司公开发行 A 股可转换公司债券募集说明 书》（以下简称"《募集说明书》"）的规定，在本次发行的可转换公司债券存 续期间，当公司股票在任意连续三十个交易日中至少有十五个交易日的收盘价 低于当期转股价格的 80%时，公司董事会有权提出转股价格向下修正方案并提交 公司股东大会表决。 自 2024 年 8 月 20 日起至 2024 年 9 月 2 日，公司股票已有 10 个交易日的 收盘价格低于新乳转债当期转股价格的 80%。若后续公司股票收盘价格继续低于 当期转 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the next six months [1][2]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.36 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 300 million yuan, up 25.3% year-on-year [1]. - The company's "Fresh Cube Strategy" continues to drive growth, particularly in the high-end fresh milk segment, which saw a year-on-year growth of approximately 15% [1]. - The company aims to double its net profit margin over the next five years through a focus on low-temperature products, technological innovation, and strategic acquisitions [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.75 billion yuan, a decline of 0.9% year-on-year, while the net profit was 210 million yuan, an increase of 17.7% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for H1 2024 was 29.2%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to lower raw milk prices and product mix optimization [1]. - The net profit margin for H1 2024 was 5.7%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1 percentage point [1]. Business Strategy - The company is committed to its new five-year strategic plan, focusing on strengthening its core business and enhancing corporate value [1]. - The company has secured 60% of its raw milk supply through self-owned and equity-held sources, aligning with its Fresh Cube Strategy and reinforcing its market position in low-temperature dairy products [1]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is 540 million yuan for 2024, 640 million yuan for 2025, and 760 million yuan for 2026, with corresponding EPS of 0.63 yuan, 0.75 yuan, and 0.88 yuan [2][3]. - The dynamic PE ratios are projected to be 14 times for 2024, 12 times for 2025, and 10 times for 2026 [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Accumulate" [5] Core Views - In H1 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 5.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 300 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.3% [2][3] - The company demonstrated resilience in liquid milk revenue, surpassing industry growth rates, with liquid milk, milk powder, and other products generating revenues of 4.83 billion, 30 million, and 490 million yuan respectively in H1 2024 [3] - The company is expected to continue outperforming the industry, with projected revenues of 11.85 billion, 12.91 billion, and 13.89 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, alongside net profits of 530 million, 660 million, and 800 million yuan [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the gross margin was 29.2%, an increase of 1.26 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin was 5.7%, an increase of 1.03 percentage points year-on-year [3] - For Q2 2024, the gross margin was 29.1%, with a net margin of 7.7%, reflecting significant cost efficiency improvements [3] Product and Regional Performance - The company maintained a double-digit contribution from new products, with high-end fresh milk and mid-to-high-end white milk segments growing over 30% year-on-year [3] - Revenue by region in H1 2024 showed varied performance, with Southwest region down 6.9% and North China up 20.2% [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from product structure optimization and cost reduction strategies, leading to improved profitability [4] - The projected earnings per share for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.50, 0.61, and 0.76 yuan respectively, with a decreasing P/E ratio forecasted from 18.06 to 9.69 over the same period [4][7]

[Table_Main] 公司研究|日常消费|食品、饮料与烟草 证券研究报告 [Table_Invest]买入|维持 新乳业(002946)公司点评报告 2024 年 08 月 30 日 [Table_Title] 擅长创新，H1 业绩+25% ——新乳业 2024 年中报点评 [Table_Summary] 事件 公司公告 2024 年中报。2024H1，公司实现总收入 53.64 亿元（+1.25%），归 母净利润 2.96 亿元（+25.26%），扣非归母净利润 3.13 亿元（+36.39%）。 2024Q2 单季，公司实现总收入 27.51 亿元（-0.94%），归母净利润 2.07 亿元 （+17.72%），扣非归母净利润 2.13 亿元（+37.66%）。 华东增长稳健，华北、其他地区增长较快 1）液体乳增长稳健。2024H1，公司液体乳、奶粉、其他收入分别为 48.44、 0.35、4.86 亿元，同比+0.54%、-15.20%、+10.64%。 2）直销渠道稳健，经销商 H1 有所优化。2024H1，公司直销、经销收入分别 为 27.55、21.24 亿元，同比+1.29%、-0.72%， ...