1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Domestically, the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal in the near - term is restricted, and the supply - side pressure is small. However, the demand for rapeseed meal is weak due to the decline in aquaculture demand and the substitution of soybean meal. The rapeseed meal price maintains a volatile trend, and short - term observation is recommended. [2] - The rapeseed oil market has support from the supply - side as the oil mills are basically shut down and the inventory is decreasing. But the demand is mainly rigid due to the abundant supply of soybean oil. Recently, the rapeseed oil futures price has declined slightly due to the weakness of palm oil, and short - term trading is recommended. [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9778 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2446 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed is 641.8 Canadian dollars/ton, down 8.6 Canadian dollars, and that of the active rapeseed contract is 5454 yuan/ton, down 97 yuan. [2] - Spreads: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil is 356 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 61 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan. [2] - Positions: The position of the main rapeseed oil contract is 235090 lots, down 8834 lots; that of rapeseed meal is 360472 lots, up 4288 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are 1412 lots, down 3130 lots; for rapeseed meal are - 7699 lots, up 2888 lots. [2] - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 3976, down 57; that of rapeseed meal is 0, unchanged. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10190 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2440 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 10283.75 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed is 7845.7 yuan/ton, down 113.9 yuan. [2] - Price differences: The oil - meal ratio is 4.05, down 0.02. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1710 yuan/ton, unchanged; that between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1760 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; that between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 560 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast is 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 13446 thousand tons, unchanged. [2] - Imports: The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 0 tons, down 11.53 tons. The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 14 tons, down 2 tons; that of rapeseed meal is 22.06 tons, up 6.29 tons. [2] - Inventory and operating rate: The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills is 0.25 tons, down 0.25 tons. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 0%, unchanged. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 1.25 tons, down 0.83 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0.01 tons, down 0.19 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is 36.45 tons, down 3.6 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory is 22.96 tons, down 2.49 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region is 1.15 tons, down 0.33 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region is 22.3 tons, up 1.5 tons. [2] -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 1.01 tons, down 0.3 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 0.3 tons, up 0.1 tons. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2957 tons, down 171.7 tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 427.6 tons, down 67.4 tons. [2] - Consumption: The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 5199 billion yuan, up 690.4 billion yuan. [2] 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 20.06%, up 0.36%; that of at - the - money put options is 20.06%, up 0.36%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 14.88%, up 1.47%; that of at - the - money put options is 14.93%, up 1.52%. [2] - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 21.52%, down 0.08%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 20.81%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 14.87%, up 0.06%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 13.76%, unchanged. [2] 3.7 Industry News - On November 21 (Friday), ICE rapeseed futures closed lower, following the weakness of US soybean oil, European rapeseed, and Malaysian palm oil futures. [2] - The US soybeans are in the export season, with abundant supply in the short - term. The US faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans in the global export market, but the domestic soybean crushing consumption in the US is good, and China's purchase of over 1.5 million tons of US soybeans last week supports the US soybean price. [2] - The Canada - China trade negotiation has not made a breakthrough on the rapeseed tariff issue, restricting the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal in the near - term. The Canadian rapeseed export has declined significantly this year, but the Canadian bio - fuel production incentive plan and the agreement with Pakistan to promote rapeseed export provide support. [2] - The US government is considering postponing the plan to cut bio - fuel import incentives by 1 - 2 years, and the increase in Malaysian palm oil production and decline in exports in November bring inventory pressure to the international oil market. [2]

荡状态。 数据来源于第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 鸡蛋产业日报 2025-11-24 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,元/500千 | 3210 | 26 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:鸡蛋(日,手) | -42470 | -9060 | | | 克) 鸡蛋期货月间价差(1-5):(日,元/500千克) | -300 | ...

| | 11/25 待定 美国9月PPI | | --- | --- | | 重点关注 | 11/26 21:30 美国第三季度GDP修正值、10月份个人收入、支出及PCE价格指数 | 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：T为10年期国债期货，TF为5年期国债期货，TS为2年期国债期货 研究员： 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 免责声明 国债期货日报 2025/11/24 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 项目 最新 | | | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 108.505 | 0.06% T主力成交量 | 79246 | -23755↓ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.890 | 0.03% TF主力成交量 | 46495 | -17953↓ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.460 | 0.01% TS主力成交量 | 23207 | -6065↓ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 115.760 | 0.15% TL主 ...

Report Date - The report is dated November 24, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In the domestic market, the new cotton harvest is nearly finished, commercial cotton inventory is seasonally rising, and the pressure of new cotton listing is emerging. The import cotton ports maintain a pattern of more out than in and are at the highest level in four months. On the demand side, spinning mills' orders increase limitedly, but the tariff reduction is beneficial for domestic cotton textile exports, supporting cotton prices. Overall, domestic demand improves marginally, with support at the bottom and suppression from increased supply at the top. The cotton price is expected to fluctuate in the future [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main - contract closing price is 13,585 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan; cotton yarn main - contract closing price is 20,075 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan. - Cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 89,472 hands, down 10,304 hands; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are - 504 hands, down 181 hands. - Cotton main - contract positions are 551,915 hands, up 5,004 hands; cotton yarn main - contract positions are 21,700 hands, up 752 hands. - Cotton warehouse receipts are 2,240 sheets, down 4 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 14 sheets, down 3 sheets [2] 现货市场 - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 14,793 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 20,590 yuan/ton, unchanged. - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 12,792 yuan/ton; Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count) arrival price is 21,105 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan. - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale tariff) is 13,852 yuan/ton; Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count) arrival price is 22,369 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, up 0.54 million tons. - Cotton - yarn price difference is 5,794 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; national industrial cotton inventory is 785,000 tons, down 76,000 tons [2] Industrial Situation - Cotton import volume is 90,000 tons, down 10,000 tons; cotton yarn import volume is 140,000 tons, up 10,000 tons. - Imported cotton profit is 941 yuan/ton, up 413 yuan; national commercial cotton inventory is 2.9306 million tons, up 1.9089 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days are 26.12 days, up 1.27 days; fabric output is 2.62 billion meters, down 1.8 million meters; yarn output is 2.001 million tons, down 73,000 tons; grey - fabric inventory days are 31.97 days, up 0.85 days [2] - For clothing and clothing accessories, the monthly export amount is 110,034.8043 million US dollars, down 14,497.6657 million US dollars; for textile yarns, fabrics and products, the monthly export amount is 112,584.1892 million US dollars, down 7,080.9708 million US dollars [2] Option Market - Cotton at - the - money call option implied volatility is 5.16%, down 0.53 percentage points; cotton at - the - money put option implied volatility is 5.16%, down 0.53 percentage points. - Cotton 20 - day historical volatility is 4.73%, down 0.07 percentage points; cotton 60 - day historical volatility is 7.39%, unchanged [2] Industry News - As of October 7, 2025, US non - commercial long positions in cotton were 70,902 hands, down 1,689 hands from the previous week; non - commercial short positions were 129,324 hands, up 6,748 hands from the previous week; net short positions were 58,422 hands, up 8,437 hands from the previous week. - As of the week ending November 18, about 51% of US cotton - growing areas were affected by drought, up from 47% the previous week. - For the week ending October 2, US current - year cotton export sales increased by 199,000 bales, up 28% from the previous week and 43% from the average of the previous 4 weeks; US cotton export shipments were 157,700 bales, up 34% from the previous week and 25% from the average of the previous 4 weeks [2]

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 | | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5370 | 17 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 417739 | 1039 | | 期货市场 | 仓单数量:白糖(日,张) | 7693 | -278 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:白糖(日,手) | -64209 | 1158 | | | 有效仓单预报:白糖:小计(日,张) | 183 | 0 | | | | 吨) | 进口加工估算价(配额内):巴西糖(日,元/ | 4073 | 41 ...

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：HC：热轧卷板 热轧卷板产业链日报 2025/11/24 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,295 | +25↑ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1082089 | -42534↓ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -59,793 | +5016↑ HC1-5合约价差(元/吨) | 3 | +7↑ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 143432 | -2656↓ HC2601-RB2601合约价差(元/吨) | 206 | -7↓ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,320.00 | 0.00 广州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,310.00 | +20.00↑ | | | 武汉 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,330.00 | 0.00 天津 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,210.00 | +10 ...

研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告 不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形 式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 铁矿石产业链日报 2025/11/24 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | I 主力合约收盘价（元/吨） | 790.50 | +5.00↑ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 449,760 | -10742↓ | | | I 1-5合约价差（元/吨） | 27 | -2.50↓ I 合约前20名净持仓(手) | 527 | -3648↓ | | | I 大商所仓单（手） | 8 ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The resumption of previously overhauled units has driven up domestic urea production. This week, 2 enterprises are expected to stop production, and 3 - 5 enterprises that stopped production may resume. Considering short - term enterprise failures, the change in production is expected to be limited [2]. - Recently, the procurement of Northeast reserve demand has been concentrated, but the procurement volume may slow down after the previous appropriate replenishment. The operating rate of compound fertilizers has slightly increased, and enterprises are gradually arranging production of winter - storage fertilizers. It is expected that the utilization rate of compound fertilizer production capacity will increase slightly in the short term [2]. - With the implementation of a new batch of quotas, export demand is gradually increasing. Last week, the inventory of urea enterprises decreased, and the Northeast reserve demand increased significantly, leading to obvious inventory reduction in some enterprises. The prices of urea enterprises in major production and sales areas have fluctuated differently, and although the prices have risen in some regions, the inventory reduction is limited. Recently, the advance orders of some urea enterprises have increased, and they are mainly focused on active sales. The inventory of urea enterprises may continue to decline [2]. - The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1630 - 1670 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of Zhengzhou urea's main contract is 1638 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan compared with the previous period. The 1 - 5 spread of Zhengzhou urea is - 73 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan [2]. - The trading volume of Zhengzhou urea's main contract is 232315 lots, a decrease of 10931 lots compared with the previous period. The net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou urea is - 23589 lots, an increase of 7570 lots [2]. - The number of exchange warehouse receipts for Zhengzhou urea is 7570, an increase of 387 compared with the previous period [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price in Hebei is 1650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; in Henan, it is 1650 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan; in Jiangsu, it is 1640 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan; in Shandong, it is 1640 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; in Anhui, it is 1640 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [2]. - The basis of Zhengzhou urea's main contract is 2 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan compared with the previous period. The FOB price in the Baltic Sea is 362.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars; the FOB price at the main Chinese port is 400 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous period [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 100,000 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons compared with the previous period. The enterprise inventory is 1.4372 million tons, a decrease of 46,400 tons [2]. - The operating rate of urea enterprises is 83.91%, a decrease of 0.17 percentage points. The daily urea output is 202,900 tons, an increase of 6,200 tons [2]. - The urea export volume is 1.2 million tons, a decrease of 170,000 tons. The monthly output of urea is 5.87127 million tons, an increase of 132,600 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizers is 34.61%, an increase of 4.29 percentage points. The operating rate of melamine is 62.2%, an increase of 4.72 percentage points [2]. - The weekly profit of compound fertilizers in China is 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan. The weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is 70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 63 yuan [2]. - The monthly output of compound fertilizers is 3.6287 million tons, a decrease of 1.0331 million tons. The weekly output of melamine is 32,000 tons, an increase of 2,800 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of November 19, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.4372 million tons, a decrease of 46,400 tons compared with the previous week, a year - on - year decrease of 3.13%. During this period, the urea price fluctuated upward, the reserve demand in the Northeast increased significantly, and some enterprises significantly reduced their inventory [2]. - As of November 20, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 100,000 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons compared with the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 21.95%. Although there are expectations of continuous container collection, the shipment is relatively slow, and the port inventory mainly shows a small increase. Most port inventories are at a low level, and the overall port level does not fluctuate much [2]. - As of November 20, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.4204 million tons, an increase of 43,500 tons compared with the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 3.16%. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese urea production enterprises was 83.91%, a decrease of 0.17 percentage points compared with the previous period, showing a slight downward trend. During the cycle, 3 new enterprises' units stopped production, 1 stopped - production unit resumed production, and with the continuation of the unit changes in the previous cycle, the output increased significantly this week [2]. 3.6 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term port reverse - flow inland arbitrage space may remain continuously open, the import apparent demand may continue to be at a high level, and the port methanol inventory is expected to change little. The suppression of high inventory on the port methanol market may continue, and the unloading speed of foreign vessels needs to be specifically monitored [2]. - The load of olefin enterprises in East China has been slightly adjusted, the olefin industry's operating rate increased slightly last week. There is no planned adjustment expected for olefin enterprises this week, and the operating rate is expected to remain stable [2]. - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2000 - 2100 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2077 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 73 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread of methanol is - 121 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 13 yuan/ton [2]. - The position of the main methanol contract is 1,312,680 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 89,794 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 157,412 lots [2]. - The number of methanol warehouse receipts is 2,400 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2035 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 45 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1965 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton [2]. - The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 25 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 42 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 28 yuan/ton [2]. - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 233 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 317 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous period [2]. - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 256 euros/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 4 euros/ton; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 84 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous period [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 4.58 US dollars/million British thermal units, with a week - on - week increase of 0.09 US dollars/million British thermal units [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 1.0178 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 38,600 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 461,500 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 25,700 tons [2]. - The import profit of methanol is - 16.9 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 1.6126 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 185,700 tons [2]. - The inventory of inland enterprises is 358,700 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 10,600 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 88.77%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.69 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 42.01%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.59 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 5.69%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.36 percentage points [2]. - The operating rate of acetic acid is 69.59%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.46 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE is 69.97%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.28 percentage points [2]. - The operating rate of olefins is 89.65%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.39 percentage points; the on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 659 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 204 yuan/ton [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 15.61%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of methanol is 17.21%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.13 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 20.32%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.05 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol is 20.32%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.04 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of November 19, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 358,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,600 tons or 2.86%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 246,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 900 tons or 0.37% [2]. - As of November 19, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.4793 million tons, a decrease of 64,300 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China decreased by 38,600 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 25,700 tons [2]. - As of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 90.36%, a week - on - week increase of 0.12%. The load of olefin enterprises in East China was slightly adjusted, and the weekly average operating rate increased slightly [2]. 3.8 Suggested Attention - The enterprise inventory and port inventory data from Longzhong on Wednesday should be noted [2].

Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - For alumina, the fundamentals may be in a situation of excessive supply and stable demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For Shanghai aluminum, the fundamentals may be in a situation of stable supply and slightly weakened demand affected by the off - season. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For cast aluminum, the fundamentals may be in a stage of converging supply and slightly reduced demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 21,380 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,736 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan [2]. - The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation was 2,808 US dollars/ton, up 1.5 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory was 548,000 tons, up 3,925 tons [2]. Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum price was 21,360 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,770 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 21,350 yuan/ton, and the basis of cast aluminum alloy was 715 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The alumina production was 786.50 million tons per month, down 13.40%; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 730.23 million tons per month, up 25.92 million tons [2]. - The import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments in China was 158,360.01 tons per month, up 2,945.61 tons; the export volume was 32.46 tons per month, down 36.08 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum was 248,261.37 tons per month, up 4,462 tons; the export volume was 24,573.56 tons per month, down 4,396.36 tons [2]. - The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4,523.20 million tons per month, and the operating rate was 98.24%, down 0.12% [2]. Downstream and Application - The production of aluminum products was 569.40 million tons per month, down 20.60 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 50.00 million tons per month, down 2.00 million tons [2]. - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 60.83 million tons per month, down 4.82 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 3.09 million tons per month, up 0.74 million tons [2]. Option Situation - The implied volatility of the at - the - money IV of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 10.26%, down 0.0012; the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options was 1.43, down 0.0125 [2]. Industry News - Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. Some think there is room for rate cuts, while others are cautious [2]. - The preliminary forecast of the Passenger Car Association shows that the retail market of narrow - sense passenger cars in November may reach about 2.25 million units, flat compared with October and down 8.7% year - on - year, with new - energy retail sales expected to be about 1.35 million units, and the penetration rate may reach 60% for the first time [2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will promote the high - quality development of the integrated circuit industry from three aspects: promoting collaborative innovation in the industrial chain, creating a good industrial environment, and adhering to open cooperation [2]. - The initial value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in November was 51.9, a 4 - month low; the initial values of the service PMI and the composite PMI were 55 and 54.8 respectively, both reaching 4 - month highs [2].