Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights - The pork price center has significantly risen, leading to a notable reduction in industry losses. The average price of live pigs has increased to 12.51 CNY/kg, a week-on-week rise of 7.20% [2][13] - The agricultural sector is expected to maintain a good development momentum, with grain production projected to be high this year, including summer grain production of 299.48 billion jin and early rice production increasing by 6.8 billion jin, a growth of 1.2% [1][12] - The industry is currently in a supply-demand tug-of-war, with large-scale pig farms adopting strategies to control supply and raise prices, while demand is expected to improve with the arrival of warmer weather and the pickling season [2][13] Summary by Sections Planting Industry Chain - The agricultural sector is implementing key policies to support rural economic development, with a focus on achieving food security and enhancing crop yields through biotechnology [1][12] - Major beneficiaries in the planting sector include Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development, while in the seed industry, companies like Dabeinong and Longping High-Tech are highlighted for their competitive advantages [1][12] Pig Farming - The pig farming industry is still experiencing losses, but there has been a significant reduction in losses compared to the previous week, with self-breeding farms reporting an average loss of 89.33 CNY per head, down nearly 100 CNY [2][13] - The industry is expected to undergo a process of capacity reduction, with a focus on improving quality and efficiency, leading to the gradual elimination of outdated production capacity [2][13] - Recommended stocks in the pig farming sector include companies like DeKang Agriculture, Jingji Zhino, and Muyuan Foods [2][13] Key Agricultural Product Data Tracking - Corn: The average price is 2241.67 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.66% [27][28] - Wheat: The average price is 2482.11 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.87% [30][32] - Soybeans: The average price is 3996.84 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.06% [41][44] - Cotton: The average price in Xinjiang is 14660 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.15% [46][50] Feed and Vitamin Prices - The average price of pig feed is 2.6 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.38% [53][55] - The average price of Vitamin E is 50.30 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 14.58% [62][63]

Core Viewpoint - The company demonstrates strong performance in the poultry and pig farming sectors, with a positive outlook for profitability driven by industry recovery and cost leadership [1][2][3]. Poultry Sector - The company achieved a total output of 410 million yellow feathered chickens in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10% [1]. - The average selling price for yellow feathered chickens in Q3 2025 is estimated at 11.54 yuan per kilogram, with a cost of 11.4 yuan per kilogram, resulting in an average profit of approximately 0.3 yuan per chicken [1]. - The poultry segment is expected to contribute profits of around 40 to 50 million yuan [1]. Pig Farming Sector - The company reported a total output of 1.51 million pigs in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 90% [2]. - The estimated price for pigs in Q3 2025 is around 13.9 yuan per kilogram, with an average profit of approximately 160 to 180 yuan per pig, contributing profits of about 90 to 100 million yuan from the pig segment [2]. - The company’s pig farming costs are among the industry leaders, with expectations for continued cost reduction and pricing advantages due to proximity to high-demand markets [2][3]. Future Outlook - The company plans to expand its market presence outside of East China, with an expected annual growth rate of 8-10% in yellow feathered chicken output [3]. - Projected net profits for the company are estimated at 815 million yuan, 1.67 billion yuan, and 2.07 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.97, 1.99, and 2.47 yuan [3].

Investment Strategy and Key Stock Portfolio - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is positioned as a critical phase for achieving socialist modernization, with an implied growth rate requirement of approximately 4.7% during this period. The focus is on high-quality development, emphasizing total factor productivity, resident consumption rates, and domestic demand [3][9] - The improvement in China-US relations is noted, with a meeting between the leaders on October 30 discussing economic cooperation and resulting in a consensus that includes the suspension of certain tariffs and export controls. This is expected to enhance risk appetite in the market [3][9] - There is a continued demand for stabilizing domestic demand in the fourth quarter, with a reported GDP growth rate of 5.2% in the first three quarters, making it feasible to meet the annual target of 5%. However, there are signs of slowing retail sales growth and negative fixed asset investment growth [10][11] - The Federal Reserve has continued its gradual interest rate cuts, with a clear end to quantitative tightening (QT) by December 1. This is seen as a move to maintain the Fed's independence and data-driven decision-making [10][11] Key Stock Recommendations - The report includes a selection of stocks across various industries, highlighting their potential based on current market conditions and company fundamentals. The recommended stocks include: - Hengli Petrochemical (600346.SH) in the petrochemical sector, with a focus on its resilience and dividend policy [12][13] - Satellite Chemical (002648.SZ) in basic chemicals, benefiting from its integrated supply chain and expected recovery in market demand [12][13] - Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical (002317.SZ) in the pharmaceutical sector, with a strong pipeline and expected revenue growth [12][13] - Kaili Medical (300633.SZ) in the medical sector, focusing on high-end product launches and market expansion [12][13] - Lihua Co., Ltd. (300761.SZ) in agriculture, benefiting from stable growth in poultry production [12][13] - Top Group (601689.SH) in the automotive sector, expected to benefit from its position as a key supplier to Tesla [12][13] - Zhaoyi Innovation (603986.SH) in electronics, with strong demand for semiconductor products [12][13] - Northern Huachuang (002371.SZ) in electronics, benefiting from the acceleration of domestic semiconductor production [12][13] - Anhui Heli (600761.SH) in machinery, focusing on global expansion and smart logistics [12][13] - Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SH) in machinery, benefiting from the recovery in the excavator industry [12][13] ETF Recommendations - The report also recommends several ETFs, including: - Huaxia SSE Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 ETF (588000.OF) with a year-to-date growth rate of 47.13% [15] - E Fund CSI Artificial Intelligence Theme ETF (159819.OF) with a year-to-date growth rate of 69.58% [15] - Chemical ETF (159870.OF) with a year-to-date growth rate of 25.97% [15] - GF CSI Infrastructure Engineering ETF (516970.OF) with a year-to-date growth rate of 9.09% [15] - Southern CSI Nonferrous Metals ETF (512400.OF) with a year-to-date growth rate of 85.37% [15]

Core Insights - The aquaculture sector experienced a 1.0% increase on October 31, with Tianyu Biological leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3954.79, down 0.81%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13378.21, down 1.14% [1] Aquaculture Sector Performance - Tianyu Biological (603717) closed at 9.16, up 4.93% with a trading volume of 254,000 shares and a transaction value of 234 million [1] - Huaying Agriculture (002321) closed at 2.90, up 4.69% with a trading volume of 654,900 shares and a transaction value of 188 million [1] - Other notable performers include *ST Tianshan (300313) up 3.34%, Luoniushan (000735) up 2.37%, and Xiaoming Co. (300967) up 1.65% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The aquaculture sector saw a net inflow of 290 million from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 190 million [2] - Major stocks like Muyuan Foods (002714) had a net inflow of 203 million, while Wens Foodstuffs (300498) had a net inflow of 61 million [3] - The overall trend indicates a shift in capital, with institutional investors showing confidence in the sector while retail investors are withdrawing [2][3]

Core Points - The aquaculture sector experienced a decline of 1.31% on October 30, with Tianyu Biology leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3986.9, down 0.73%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13532.13, down 1.16% [1] Stock Performance - Yisheng Co. (002458) closed at 9.03, up 0.33% with a trading volume of 97,800 shares and a turnover of 88.43 million yuan [1] - Xiantan Co. (002746) closed at 6.31, up 0.32% with a trading volume of 154,800 shares and a turnover of 97.81 million yuan [1] - Tianyu Biology (603717) closed at 8.73, down 3.64% with a trading volume of 155,200 shares and a turnover of 137 million yuan [2] - Huaying Agriculture (002321) closed at 2.77, down 3.15% with a trading volume of 424,400 shares and a turnover of 119 million yuan [2] Capital Flow - The aquaculture sector saw a net outflow of 188 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 141 million yuan [2] - The main capital inflow and outflow for specific stocks included: - Jingji Zhinnong (000048) had a net inflow of 19.99 million yuan from main capital [3] - Wens Foodstuff Group (300498) had a net inflow of 7.96 million yuan from main capital [3] - Yisheng Co. (002458) had a net inflow of 3.79 million yuan from main capital [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Lihua Co., Ltd. has experienced a decline in stock price, dropping 3.14% to 20.65 CNY per share, with a total market value of 17.29 billion CNY and a cumulative drop of 6.77% over three days [1] - Lihua Co., Ltd. is primarily engaged in the production and sales of yellow feather chickens, pigs, and meat geese, with chicken revenue accounting for 75.84%, pig revenue for 23.31%, and goose revenue for 0.86% [1] - The company was established on June 19, 1997, and went public on February 18, 2019 [1] Group 2 - Yongying Fund has a significant holding in Lihua Co., Ltd., with its Yongying Qixin Mixed A fund holding 200,700 shares, representing 7.62% of the fund's net value, making it the sixth-largest holding [2] - The fund has incurred a floating loss of approximately 134,500 CNY today and a total floating loss of 301,100 CNY during the three-day decline [2] - Yongying Qixin Mixed A fund was established on June 4, 2024, with a current scale of 6.71 million CNY and has achieved a return of 46.87% this year [2]

证券代码：300761 证券简称：立华股份 公告编号：2025-079 江苏立华食品集团股份有限公司 关于使用自有资金进行委托理财的进展公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确和完整，没有 虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 序 号 委托方 受托方 产品名称 产品类型 资金来源 金额 （万元） 起息日 到期日 预期年化 收益率（%） 1 江苏立华 食品集团 股份有限 公司 中国民生银 行股份有限 公司常州支 行 民生理财贵竹 固收增利双周 盈14天持有期 2 号理财产品 固定收益类 自有资金 6,000 2025/9/15 无固定 期限 - 2 江苏立华 食品集团 股份有限 公司 中信银行股 份有限公司 常州分行 信银理财固盈 象固收稳健日 开 1 号理财产 品 公募、固定 收益类、开 放式 自有资金 7,000 2025/9/16 无固定 期限 - 一、主要内容 | 序 | | | | | | 金额 | | | 预期年化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 号 | 委托方 | 受托方 | 产品名称 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported an increase in production costs for meat chickens due to rising feed raw material costs and prolonged high-temperature weather, but anticipates a reduction in costs as production normalizes [1] Group 1: Chicken Production - The company's complete cost for meat chickens in Q3 rose to approximately 11.4 yuan/kg, but there is expected room for cost reduction with the arrival of seasonal production [1] - The company has established an annual slaughter capacity of 150 million chickens and aims to enhance capacity utilization to lower processing costs while expanding fresh chicken channels [1] - The target slaughter volume for the company's slaughter segment is set at 100 million chickens by 2025 to further achieve cost reduction and efficiency improvements [1] Group 2: Pig Farming - In Q3, the company's pig farming segment showed continuous improvement in production efficiency, with a complete cost of approximately 12.6 yuan/kg, which decreased to 12.3 yuan/kg in September [1] - The company plans to continue quality improvement and cost reduction efforts in Q4, aiming for a cost target of 12 yuan/kg by the end of the year [1]

Core Insights - The company reported a net profit of 138 million yuan for Q3 2025, with a year-to-date revenue of 13.49 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, but a significant decline in net profit by 75.3% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenues of 4.09 billion yuan, 4.27 billion yuan, and 5.14 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.6%, 3.0%, and 5.4% respectively [1] - The net profit for the same quarters was 206 million yuan, -57 million yuan, and 138 million yuan [1] - As of September 2025, the company's debt-to-asset ratio was 43.2%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points from June [1] Livestock Production - The company reported a total of 1.5058 million pigs sold from January to September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 90.2%, with a target of 2 million pigs for the year [2] - The average cost of raising pigs decreased from 12.8 yuan/kg in the first half of 2025 to 12.3 yuan/kg in June, with a target of 12 yuan/kg by year-end [2] - The net profit from the pig business for Q3 is estimated to be around 100 million yuan [2] Poultry Production - The company sold 415 million yellow feather chickens from January to September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.4% [3] - The quarterly sales figures for yellow feather chickens were 120 million, 140 million, and 150 million, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 8.7%, 11.9%, and 10.4% [3] - The cost of raising chickens decreased to below 11 yuan/kg in the first half of 2025, but saw a slight increase in Q3 due to rising raw material prices [3] Future Projections - The company expects to maintain pig sales at 2 million heads annually from 2025 to 2027, with chicken sales projected to reach 568 million, 619 million, and 668 million respectively [4] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are 18.242 billion yuan, 20.558 billion yuan, and 21.909 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 447 million yuan, 1.551 billion yuan, and 1.666 billion yuan [4] - Adjustments in projections are based on revised expectations for pig and chicken prices, production costs, and sales volumes [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the company has experienced a recovery in the yellow feather broiler market in Q3, leading to a turnaround in net profit from loss to gain on a quarter-over-quarter basis [1][2] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 13.493 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.38%, with Q3 revenue reaching 5.14 billion yuan, up 20.46% quarter-over-quarter and 5.35% year-on-year [1] - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 287 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, down 75.27% year-on-year, with Q3 net profit at 138 million yuan, up 341.56% quarter-over-quarter but down 76.76% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The company maintained growth in broiler output, with 415 million broilers sold in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.37%, and Q3 output at 155 million broilers, up 10.36% year-on-year [2] - The average selling price of broilers in Q3 2025 increased by 9.23% quarter-over-quarter to 11.54 yuan/kg, although it remains approximately 12% lower than the same period last year [2] - The company’s broiler production costs have decreased to below 11 yuan/kg in H1 2025, with expected profit per broiler in Q3 projected to be over 1 yuan [2] Group 3 - The company also saw an increase in pig output, with 1.5058 million pigs sold in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 90.22%, and Q3 output at 556,200 pigs, up 55.93% year-on-year [3] - The average selling price of pigs in Q3 2025 decreased by 6.21% quarter-over-quarter to 13.91 yuan/kg, while the total cost of pig farming was around 12.3 yuan/kg [3] - The company’s pig farming capacity is expected to continue growing, with a projected capacity of 2 million pigs by the end of 2024, and anticipated profitability in the pig farming sector remains strong [3]