Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [2][14]. Core Insights - The company has implemented a "Three Expansion" strategy focusing on expanding product categories, market segments, and business formats, aiming to enhance its supply chain model [6]. - For the fiscal year 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 93.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.8 billion yuan, reflecting a significant growth of 72.4% [6]. - The company is targeting lower-tier markets and has opened 1,046 stores across 21 provinces and nearly 200 cities, enhancing its industry influence [6]. - The company is also investing in AI technology, having developed the KidsGPT smart advisor and collaborating with Huoshan Engine to create an AI hardware incubator [6]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: Projected total revenue for 2024 is 9,337 million yuan, with expected growth rates of 11.4% in 2025 and 7.6% in 2026 [2][7]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to reach 301 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 66.1% [2][7]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is expected to increase from 0.14 yuan in 2024 to 0.24 yuan in 2025 [2][7]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 91 times in 2024 to 55 times in 2025, indicating improving valuation [2][7]. Market Position - The company has introduced 1,200 new SKUs across over 180 brands, diversifying its product offerings and enhancing consumer choices [6]. - The company is focusing on a differentiated approach in its direct and franchise operations, with significant upgrades to its stores and the launch of a large store franchise model [6].

母婴童行业龙头孩子王（301078）(301078.SZ)积极扩张，实现经营业绩高速提升。 4月7日晚间，孩子王发布业绩预告。公司预计2025年一季度实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润(净利润，下 同)2914.71万至3847.42万元，同比增长150%至230%；扣除非经常性损益后的净利润(扣非净利润，下同)1433.94万 至2007.52万元，同比增长400%至600%。 孩子王表示，2025年一季度，公司持续推进门店场景升级及供应链体系优化，强化单客经营和运营管理，提升单 客价值，确保存量业务保持稳健增长，促进公司盈利能力不断提升。 长江商报记者注意到，2024年，孩子王实现营业收入93.37亿元，同比增长6.68%；净利润和扣非净利润分别为 1.81亿元、1.2亿元，同比增长72.44%、91.6%。其中，2024年四季度和2025年一季度，孩子王均实现净利润和扣 非净利润倍增。 特别是在全控乐友国际之后，公司迅速成为母婴童行业中门店网络最广、全渠道服务能力领先的龙头企业。目前 孩子王已构建了全国性母婴童大型数字化门店的自营连锁布局体系。截至2024年末，孩子王与乐友国际全国门店 数量已拓展至1046 ...

孩子王 孩子王(301078 (301078..SZSZ)) 投资评级 上次评级 证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_A 宿一赫 uthor 商社分析师 ] 执业编号：S1500524080004 联系电话：15721449682 邮 箱：suyihe@cindasc.com 张洪滨 商社行业研究助理 联系电话：18916616659 邮 箱：zhanghongbin@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 孩子王 25Q1 业绩预告点评：积极布局直播电 商与 AI 数智化，盈利持续释放 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 8 日 [Table_S 事件：公司发布 ummary] 2025 年一季度业绩预告。公司预计一季度实现归母净利润 2915-3847 万元，同比增长 150%-230%；实现扣非归母净利润 1434-2008 万元，同比增长 400%-600%。非经常性损益约 ...

上次评级 [Table_A 宿一赫 uthor 商社分析师 ] 执业编号：S1500524080004 联系电话：15721449682 邮 箱：suyihe@cindasc.com 张洪滨 商社行业研究助理 联系电话：18916616659 邮 箱：zhanghongbin@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 孩子王 25Q1 业绩预告点评：积极布局直播电 商与 AI 数智化，盈利持续释放 证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 孩子王 孩子王(301078 (301078..SZSZ)) 投资评级 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 8 日 [Table_S 事件：公司发布 ummary] 2025 年一季度业绩预告。公司预计一季度实现归母净利润 2915-3847 万元，同比增长 150%-230%；实现扣非归母净利润 1434-2008 万元，同比增长 400%-600%。非经常性损益约 ...

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 商贸零售 2025 年 04 月 07 日 孩子王 (301078) ——业绩超预期，看好 AI 数智化加速 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 04 月 07 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 10.12 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 17.75/4.85 | | 市净率 | 3.2 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 0.69 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 12,611 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,096.58/9,364.50 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2024 年 12 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 3.16 | | 资产负债率% | 56.82 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 1,258/1,246 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 04-08 05-08 06-08 07-08 08-08 09-08 10-0 ...

记者注意到，孩子王一季报净利润大幅预增也与此前的低基数有关。2022年以来，由于新出生人口的持续下滑，也冲击了母婴行业，2022年到2024年孩子王 第一季度单季归属上市公司股东净利润为-3243.5万元、759.1万元和1165.9万元。 当天，孩子王股价受外部消息影响大跌逾18%，在投资者互动中，管理层也回应称公司主要业务全部在国内，此次美国加征关税对公司没有影响。 值得注意的是，2024年国内新出生人口的回暖也拉动了母婴行业的持续回暖。 II III 雪外成分表 升级版飞机头 iT即可 股价大跌后孩子王"连忙"预喜 4月7日晚，在当日股价大跌18.06%后，国内头部母婴连锁上市公司孩子王（301078.SZ）发布一季报预告，预计归属上市公司股东净利润同比增长150%到 230%。 在业内看来，受2024年生育的回暖带动，母婴行业的短期反弹仍在持续。 公告显示，2025年第一季度孩子王预计实现净利润2914.7万元至3847.4万元，相比于上年同期大幅增长。孩子王将业绩增长归于三扩战略的推进带来的运营 改善和单客价值提升，推动存量业务增长和盈利能力提升，同时通过直播和下沉市场加盟拉动了新增量。 尼尔森IQ ...

历经连续三年的净利润下滑后，"母婴零售第一股"孩子王（301078.SZ）终于重拾增长。 2024年营业收入达93.4亿元，同比增长6.7%；归母净利润达1.81亿元，同比增长72.4%。 2025年一季度，预计净利润将达0.29亿元至0.38亿元，同比增长150%至230%。 但撑起利润的并非主业改善，而是2023年收购的北方母婴童连锁品牌"乐友国际"。 2024年1.8亿元的净利润中，乐友国际贡献了1.05亿，投资收益贡献了0.38亿，孩子王自身实现的利润或仅有0.38亿 元。 这离不开消费环境的变化、渠道话语权的转移，以及新生儿群体下降带来的长期压力。 2019年线下母婴店一度达到25万家的历史高峰，但随后四年间的关店比例达到40%。 传统母婴店作为品牌渠道的价值与权威性，正持续受到来自直播电商、母婴博主和社交媒体的冲击。 孩子王额外承受着"大店模式"带来的压力。 上市以来，孩子王门店坪效持续下滑，直营门店自2023年起便停止增长，2024年净减少了2家直营店。 不仅销售奶粉、纸尿裤、玩具、服装等品类，还提供洗浴、理发、游泳、游乐场等服务。 相对高端的定位聚集了一批优质用户。 孩子王付费会员价格在199 ...

Financial Projections - The estimated net profit for Q1 2025 is projected to be between 29.15 million and 38.47 million CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 150.00% to 230.00% compared to 11.66 million CNY in the same period last year[3]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be between 14.34 million and 20.08 million CNY, indicating a growth of 400.00% to 600.00% from 2.87 million CNY in the previous year[3]. Business Strategy - The company is focusing on a "three expansion" strategy and enhancing store scene upgrades and supply chain optimization to improve customer value and maintain steady growth in existing business[5]. - The franchise business is showing positive trends as the company accelerates the development of its selected store franchise model in lower-tier markets[5]. Innovation and Collaboration - The company is collaborating with Beijing Volcano Engine Technology Co., Ltd. to establish the BYKIDs AI smart hardware incubator, aiming to create new growth momentum in the AI+ consumer sector[6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 9.34 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.7%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company reached 181 million yuan, a significant increase of 72.4% [7][12] - The company's gross margin improved to 29.7%, up by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin increased to 2.2%, up by 0.8 percentage points [7][13] - The company is expanding its business model through a combination of direct stores, franchises, and partnerships, with over 1,200 stores and 94 million members by the end of 2024 [7] - The introduction of AI technologies, such as KidsGPT, and partnerships with tech firms are enhancing the company's digital capabilities and service offerings [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 8.75 billion yuan in 2023, 9.34 billion yuan in 2024, and expected to reach 10.84 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 16.1% [6] - The net profit forecast shows a recovery with 300 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 65.5% [6] - The company’s earnings per share are projected to grow from 0.10 yuan in 2023 to 0.24 yuan in 2025 [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 19.14 CNY [2][11]. Core Views - The company is advancing its "Three Expansion" strategy, focusing on franchise, live streaming, and AI business layouts, indicating a positive long-term development outlook [3]. Financial Summary - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 8,753 million CNY, which is expected to grow to 9,337 million CNY in 2024, reflecting a 6.7% increase. By 2027, revenue is projected to reach 12,654 million CNY [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 105 million CNY in 2023, with a significant increase to 181 million CNY in 2024, marking a 72.4% growth. The forecast for 2027 is a net profit of 621 million CNY [5][11]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to rise from 0.08 CNY in 2023 to 0.14 CNY in 2024, and further to 0.49 CNY by 2027 [5][11]. Operational Highlights - The company added 96 new stores in 2024 while closing 75, resulting in a total of 1,046 stores by year-end [11]. - The company has initiated a franchise model, with 9 new franchise stores generating 1.09 million CNY in revenue [11]. - The company’s gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 29.7%, with a net profit margin of 2.68% after adjusting for convertible bonds and stock incentives [11]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on expanding its product categories, particularly in non-standard and mid-to-large children's products, with a revenue contribution of 12.3% and a growth rate of 22.3% [11]. - The company is also enhancing its operational efficiency through a self-built traceable delivery system, covering over 200 cities [11]. - Collaborations with partners for live streaming and smart incubators are part of the company's strategy to enhance its market presence [11].