Summary of Beike's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Beike (贝壳) - **Industry**: Real Estate Key Points and Arguments 1. **Short-term Performance**: Beike's short-term performance is impacted by the downturn in the real estate industry, but management has provided guidance for a gross operating profit margin of over 7% for the next three years and increased the buyback authorization to $5 billion, ensuring a solid cash reserve for investors [2][4][28]. 2. **Business Segmentation**: Beike's operations are divided into direct operations (Lianjia) and franchise operations (Beilian). The non-Lianjia stores have shown rapid growth, with active stores increasing by 35.8% to over 14,000, and active agents growing by 73,000 [2][5]. 3. **Revenue Sources**: Beike's revenue primarily comes from four segments: existing homes (27.5%), new homes (approximately 34%), home decoration (15%), and rental services (over 20%). The new home segment contributes significantly to revenue, while the rental segment is growing rapidly but has lower utilization, affecting overall profit margins [7][10]. 4. **ACN Network**: The ACN network enhances cooperation among agents, increasing overall revenue and attracting small and medium-sized agencies to the platform, which improves commission rates and expands into the new home market [2][12]. 5. **Data Support**: The "Property Dictionary" provides reliable data support, enhancing customer trust and brand image. Beike has committed to four standards for genuine listings and has compensated over 4.6 billion yuan to reinforce its market position [2][13]. 6. **Market Share**: Beike holds approximately 33%-34% market share in the second-hand housing market and about 13% in the new housing market, positioning it as an industry leader [4][10]. 7. **Profitability Trends**: The company's profit margins have fluctuated due to changes in revenue structure, with the rental business being the fastest-growing but with the lowest utilization, which has negatively impacted overall profit margins [8][9]. 8. **Future Strategy**: Beike aims to explore new avenues such as home decoration and rental services, with expectations of profitability in the home decoration segment by 2026 [10][22]. 9. **Competitive Advantages**: Beike's competitive advantages include both soft and hard moats, such as the ACN network and strategic store layouts in key cities like Beijing and Shanghai, which solidify its market position [11][15]. 10. **Investment Value**: Beike has a cash reserve of approximately 70 billion yuan, leading to a low valuation with a price-to-earnings ratio slightly above 10. The company is expected to maintain a dividend yield of at least 5% [28][29]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Market Conditions**: The current market environment is challenging, but Beike's stock buyback and dividend strategies provide a stable return for investors [29][30]. 2. **Future Performance Expectations**: Despite short-term pressures, Beike's management is optimistic about future performance, projecting a net profit margin exceeding 7% over the next three years [27]. 3. **Policy Impact**: Any policy adjustments in the fourth quarter could significantly benefit Beike, enhancing its potential for performance recovery [30].

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of the "True Guarantee" service system by Beike aims to enhance transaction safety and consumer confidence in the real estate market, addressing complexities and risks associated with second-hand housing transactions [1][2]. Group 1: Service System Overview - The "True Guarantee" system is built on "1 standard + 2 capabilities + 100 million yuan guarantee fund," encompassing 35 service commitments, including 6 platform-level and 29 brand-level commitments, creating a comprehensive risk protection network throughout the transaction cycle [2][3]. - The system has successfully intercepted risks in 16,000 transactions nationwide from July 2024 to July 2025, demonstrating its effectiveness in safeguarding consumer funds [3][4]. Group 2: Risk Management and Technology - Beike's intelligent risk control system, trained on millions of historical transaction data, can identify 62 types of risk characteristics, enabling proactive risk alerts and interventions [3][4]. - The system has increased the amount of funds under management to 97.2%, with a total guarantee fund of 750 billion yuan, ensuring 96% of funds are traceable throughout the transaction process [4]. Group 3: Industry Transformation - The "True Guarantee" system is shifting the real estate industry from "information competition" to "service guarantee competition," enhancing service quality and risk management capabilities [5]. - Beike's commitment to consumer safety and service quality is reflected in its platform-level service promises, which include "real housing sources, false claims compensated by 100 yuan," and "no reason to refund commission if the transaction fails" [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the launch of Beike's "True Guarantee" service system aimed at addressing common issues faced by homebuyers in Jinan, such as unpaid property fees and misleading listings, thereby enhancing consumer trust and transaction security [1][2][4]. Group 1: Service System Implementation - Beike has introduced a comprehensive service guarantee system called "True Guarantee," which includes commitments like "real listings, false claims compensated 100 times," "no-questions-asked commission refunds if transactions fail," and "advance payment for property fee losses," supported by a 100 million yuan guarantee fund [2][3]. - The system is built on a framework of "1 standard + 2 capabilities + 100 million yuan guarantee fund," ensuring a structured approach to service delivery and risk management [2]. Group 2: Addressing Transaction Issues - The company aims to eliminate the "price gouging" phenomenon in real estate transactions, which has led to consumer distrust in intermediaries [1][2]. - Beike's proactive measures include a full-process standard covering property listing, contract signing, transaction services, and commitment fulfillment, which helps in identifying and mitigating transaction risks [2][3]. Group 3: Post-Transaction Support - Beike extends its "True Guarantee" to post-transaction services, addressing issues like property defects after purchase, ensuring that buyers have support even after the transaction is completed [3][4]. - The company has established a "full-cycle quality screening" mechanism for properties, which includes pre-transaction inspections and post-transaction guarantees for structural issues and unpaid property fees [3]. Group 4: Performance Metrics - Beike has invested over 31.55 million yuan in service commitment guarantees, maintaining a monthly service commitment fulfillment rate of 98.5%, demonstrating its dedication to consumer satisfaction and trust [3].

题图｜视觉中国 时至今日，买房仍然是很多人一生中、需要做出的少数几项重大交易决策之一。 尤其是在当下的经济周期，过去20年房价持续上涨的逻辑发生了改变，房产的金融属性渐弱，不断 回归居住本质。随之而来的，是越来越多人更倾向于长期持有住房。一个明显的信号是，无论是新房 还是二手房，交易周期都在大幅变长。根据国泰海通证券研究的数据，截至2025年3月，超四成城市 的新房去化周期在18个月以上；中海证券的一篇研究报告则指出：以一线城市中二手房库存占比最 高的上海为例，其二手房的去化周期为18.4个月。 在这个背景下，和房产交易有关的体验正在变得更加重要。以流程极其复杂的二手房交易为例：大到 房款安全如何保障、小到接到骚扰电话，甚至到交易后，原业主物业欠费，都能给买房者带来糟糕的 交易体验。根据房产经纪平台贝壳的统计，入住后房屋漏水相关的客诉占到整体的10%。 9月22日，贝壳发布"真保障"全流程服务保障体系，宣布将给平台消费者提供涵盖"真实房源、房款 安全、佣金可退、隐私保护、质量补偿"等房产交易重点环节在内的全流程服务保障，从过去的"真房 源"拓宽至房产交易前后的全流程。 过去十几年，链家的品牌标签和"真房源"深 ...

贝壳-W(02423.HK)9月25日耗资450万美元回购69.7万股 贝壳-W(02423.HK)9月23日耗资450万美元回购 70.9万股 相关事件 格隆汇9月25日丨贝壳-W(02423.HK)公告，2025年9月25日耗资450万美元回购69.7万股。 ...

贝壳-W(02423)发布公告，于2025年9月24日，该公司斥资450万美元回购69.72万股。 ...

智通财经APP讯，贝壳-W(02423)发布公告，于2025年9月24日，该公司斥资450万美元回购69.72万股。 ...

FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： 貝殼控股有限公司 呈交日期： 2025年9月25日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 13). | 購回股份(或其他證券)但沒有註銷 | | 675,684 | % | USD | 6.6599 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 變動日期 | 2025年9月18日 | | | | | | 14). | 購回股份(或其他證券)但沒有註銷 | | 676,950 | % | USD | 6.6463 | | | 變動日期 | 2025年9月19日 | | | | | | 15). | 購回股份(或其他證券)但沒有註銷 | | 690,450 | % | USD ...

智通财经APP讯，贝壳-W(02423)发布公告，该公司于2025年9月23日斥资450万美元回购70.88万股股 份，每股回购价格为6.27-6.43美元。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that new housing transaction areas have shown a month-on-month increase, while real estate development investment has decreased year-on-year from January to August 2025 [3] - The report highlights that the decline in housing prices has been consistent since 2022, with a significant drop in both new and second-hand housing prices across 70 cities, although the rate of decline has started to narrow due to supportive policies [5][16] - It emphasizes that the relationship between population growth and housing prices is not straightforward, as effective housing demand driven by economic development and income growth is crucial for influencing prices [5][25] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The real estate market has entered a downward trend since 2022, with new and second-hand housing prices experiencing a decline for over 40 months [5][16] - As of August 2025, the new housing price index across 70 cities has decreased by 3.0% year-on-year, while the second-hand housing price index has dropped by 5.5% [16][20] Population Impact - The report concludes that population factors are long-term variables with limited mid-term impact on housing prices, as the marginal changes in housing prices are influenced more by monetary policy, supply-demand relationships, and economic expectations [25][39] - A regression analysis across several developed countries shows that housing price indices do not have a significant correlation with population growth rates [40][42] International Experience - The report draws parallels with international experiences, noting that stable fiscal and monetary policies are essential for stabilizing housing prices after declines [6][46] - It cites examples from the U.S., Japan, and South Korea, where coordinated fiscal and monetary policies have successfully supported housing market recovery after significant downturns [46][49] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on real estate companies with strong credit ratings and solid fundamentals in urban areas, such as China Overseas Development and Poly Developments [7] - It also suggests that companies excelling in both residential and commercial real estate, as well as those providing high-quality property management services, are well-positioned for growth [7]