证券研究报告·海外公司点评·地产(HS) 贝壳-W（02423.HK） 2025Q1 业绩公告点评：营收稳健增长，经调 整利润略超预期 买入（维持） | Table_EPS] [盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 77,777 | 93,457 | 109,626 | 127,495 | 147,384 | | 同比（%） | 28.20 | 20.16 | 17.30 | 16.30 | 15.60 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 5,883 | 4,065 | 6,589 | 8,497 | 10,493 | | 同比（%） | 524.45 | (30.91) | 62.10 | 28.96 | 23.48 | | Non-GAAP 净利润（百万元） | 9,798 | 7,211 | 9,701 | 11,615 | 13,617 | | 同比（%） | 244.70 | (26.41) | 34.53 | 19.73 | 17.2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Ke Holdings (BEKE US) with a target price of US$24.60, down from the previous target of US$26.30, indicating a potential upside of 21.6% from the current price of US$20.23 [1][3][20]. Core Insights - Ke Holdings reported 1Q25 results that exceeded expectations, with revenue rising 42% year-over-year to RMB 23.3 billion, driven by new home transactions (+64% YoY) and emerging business (+46% YoY). Non-GAAP net profit was RMB 1.4 billion, flat YoY, surpassing estimates by 22% and 30% [1][2]. - The company's guidance for 2Q25 and FY25 raised concerns, projecting a non-GAAP net profit of approximately RMB 7.3 billion for FY25, which is below market expectations of RMB 8 billion. This cautious outlook reflects uncertainty regarding the effectiveness of property policy support [1][2][6]. - The home renovation business achieved a significant milestone, with contribution margins reaching an all-time high of 32.6% in 1Q25, driven by procurement optimization that reduced raw material prices by about 20% [1][5]. Financial Performance - For FY25, revenue is estimated at RMB 108.7 billion, representing a 16.3% growth compared to FY24. The adjusted net profit is projected to be RMB 7.3 billion, reflecting a slight increase of 1.2% YoY [2][7]. - The report indicates a decline in non-GAAP net profit margin to 6.0% in 1Q25 from 8.5% in 1Q24, attributed to margin pressures in the existing home business and the exit from high-margin collaborations [1][5][6]. - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately US$23.93 billion, with an average turnover of US$141.3 million over the past three months [3][4]. Valuation Metrics - The target price of US$24.60 implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 28.5x for 2025E non-GAAP earnings [1][10]. - The SOTP (Sum of the Parts) valuation indicates a total valuation of RMB 207.73 billion for Ke Holdings, with the core business valued at RMB 199.73 billion and Shengdu at RMB 8 billion [10]. Share Performance - The stock has shown a 4.6% increase over the past month, although it has underperformed relative to the market by 8.1% [5]. - The 52-week high and low for the stock are US$25.80 and US$13.23, respectively [3]. Shareholding Structure - The major shareholders include Propitious Global with a 23.3% stake and Tencent Mobility with a 10.0% stake [4].

5月15日美股盘前，贝壳（BEKE.US）（02423.HK）公布了2025年第一季度的财报，表现超市场预期。 财报显示，今年一季度，贝壳实现总交易额8437亿元（人民币，下同），同比增长34%；总收入为233 亿元，同比增加42.4%。 这主要得益于存量房与新房业务的强劲表现，以及非房产交易服务（家装、租赁等）的快速扩张。 具体来看，贝壳存量房业务交易额5803亿元，同比增长28.1%，净收入为69亿元，同比增长20.0%；新 房业务交易额达2322亿元，同比增长53.0%，净收入达81亿元，同比增长64.2%。 非房产交易服务方面，一季度净收入同比增长46.2%，占总净收入的比例达35.9%。 其中，房屋租赁服务一季度净收入达51亿元，同比增长93.8%，主要由于省心租模式下的租赁房源数目 增加。此外，家装家居的净收入29亿元，同比增长22.3%；新兴业务及其他收入则同比下滑50%，至3.5 亿元。 贝壳指出，2025年4月，贝壳二手房交易额同比增长10-15%；5月到目前为止增长百分之十几；由于 2024年的高基数，预计6月同比将下降。考虑到贸易关税的不确定影响，预计2025年第二季度的二手房 交易额同 ...

China Real Estate Equities Day 2 tour wrap: More policies to anchor recovery China Centaline roundtable – more policies to reinforce market stabilization. We had a roundtable discussion with Mr. LIU Yuan, Vice President of Property Research at Centaline, to discuss the latest housing market dynamics. Contrary to the market view, he believes more policies will be announced to reinforce this recovery cycle. In spite of a pullback in April, Mr Liu's tone is more optimistic and he is confident that tier-1 and t ...

KE Holdings (BEKE US) Buy: Increasing confidence in margin recovery Neutral results, positive long-term guidance: KE Holdings (Beike) reported 42% y-o-y growth in revenue and 6% non-GAAP net profit margin in 1Q25, higher than its guidance but largely within market expectation. We see the results as unsurprising, but we take comfort from management's willingness to guide a recovery in its profitability. Indeed, the expectation of flattish secondary home GTV and 10% y-o-y growth in primary home GTV for 2Q25 l ...

房屋租赁服务的净收入，则由2024年同期的26亿元，大幅增长93.8%至2025年第一季度的51亿元，主要 由于"省心租"模式下的租赁房源数目增加。 值得注意的是，与营业收入增长同步发生的，还有营业成本的攀升。今年一季度，贝壳的营业成本总额 较2024年同期的123亿元，增加51.0%至185亿元。 细看各项成本构成，今年一季度，贝壳的外部分佣成本为57亿元，同比增加66.6%；内部佣金及酬金为 48亿元，同比增加33.1%；家装家居成本同比增加18.8%至20亿元；房屋租赁服务成本同比增加91.3%至 47亿元。 5月15日，贝壳公布2025年一季度业绩，期内实现净收入233亿元，同比增加42.4%；净利润8.55亿元， 同比增加97.9%；经调整净利润13.93亿元。 2025年第一季度，楼市仍处在"止跌回稳"过程中，贝壳的业绩也受到市场行情带动。 报告期内，贝壳平台上实现的房产交易总额为8437亿元，同比增加34.0%。其中，存量房交易的总交易 额为5803亿元，同比增加28.1%，仍占据其业务构成的大盘；新房交易的总交易额为2322亿元，同比增 加53.0%。 "2025年一季度的总交易额，由2024 ...

Financial Performance - Gross transaction value (GTV) increased by 34.0% year-over-year to RMB843.7 billion (US$116.3 billion) in Q1 2025, with existing home transactions growing by 28.1% to RMB580.3 billion (US$80.0 billion) and new home transactions rising by 53.0% to RMB232.2 billion (US$32.0 billion) [8]. - Net revenues reached RMB23.3 billion (US$3.2 billion), marking a 42.4% increase year-over-year, driven by growth in both existing and new home transaction services [12]. - Net income for Q1 2025 was RMB855 million (US$118 million), a significant increase of 97.9% year-over-year, while adjusted net income remained relatively flat at RMB1,393 million (US$192 million) [8]. - Total net revenues for the three months ended March 31, 2025, increased to RMB 23,328,347, representing a 42.5% growth compared to RMB 16,377,314 for the same period in 2024 [56]. - Net income attributable to KE Holdings Inc. for the three months ended March 31, 2025, was RMB 855,767, up from RMB 431,774 in the same period of 2024, reflecting a 98.1% increase [57]. Revenue Breakdown - Net revenues from existing home transaction services were RMB6.9 billion (US$0.9 billion), up 20.0% year-over-year, while new home transaction services saw revenues of RMB8.1 billion (US$1.1 billion), a 64.2% increase [12]. - The company reported a significant increase in new home transaction services revenue, which rose to RMB 8,074,995 for the three months ended March 31, 2025, up from RMB 4,916,515 in the same period of 2024, marking a 64.4% increase [56]. - Net revenues from existing home transaction services reached RMB 6,870,407, up from RMB 5,727,030, representing a growth of approximately 20% [64]. - New home transaction services generated net revenues of RMB 8,074,995, a substantial increase from RMB 4,916,515, marking a growth of about 64% [64]. - The contribution from home renovation and furnishing services increased to RMB 959,487, compared to RMB 737,130, reflecting a growth of approximately 30% [64]. Operational Metrics - The number of active stores increased by 29.6% year-over-year to 55,210, and the number of active agents rose by 23.0% to 490,862 as of March 31, 2025 [8]. - Mobile monthly active users (MAU) averaged 44.5 million in Q1 2025, a decrease from 47.7 million in the same period of 2024 [9]. - Income from operations was RMB591 million (US$81 million) in Q1 2025, a significant increase from RMB12 million in Q1 2024, resulting in an operating margin of 2.5% compared to 0.1% in the same period last year [24]. - Adjusted income from operations was RMB1,148 million (US$158 million) in Q1 2025, up from RMB960 million in Q1 2024, with an adjusted operating margin of 4.9% compared to 5.9% in the same period last year [25]. Expenses and Costs - Total cost of revenues increased by 51.0% to RMB18.5 billion (US$2.6 billion) in Q1 2025, primarily due to higher costs associated with increased transaction volumes [17]. - General and administrative expenses decreased to RMB1.9 billion (US$0.3 billion) in Q1 2025 from RMB2.0 billion in Q1 2024, primarily due to reduced share-based compensation expenses [29]. - Research and development expenses rose by 24.9% to RMB584 million (US$80 million) in Q1 2025 from RMB467 million in Q1 2024, driven by increased headcount and technical service costs [29]. Shareholder Returns - The company allocated approximately US$139 million to share repurchases in Q1 2025, representing about 0.6% of total issued shares at the end of 2024 [13]. - The company has repurchased approximately 116.6 million ADSs (representing about 349.9 million Class A ordinary shares) for a total consideration of approximately US$1,764.8 million under its share repurchase program since its launch [37]. - The company plans to continue its share repurchase program until August 31, 2025, subject to obtaining a new mandate from shareholders [37]. Cash and Assets - As of March 31, 2025, the combined balance of cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash, and short-term investments was RMB54.8 billion (US$7.6 billion) [34]. - Cash and cash equivalents as of March 31, 2025, were RMB 12,772,700, an increase from RMB 11,442,965 as of December 31, 2024 [53]. - Total assets decreased slightly to RMB 130,612,461 as of March 31, 2025, from RMB 133,149,283 as of December 31, 2024 [55]. - Total current liabilities remained stable at RMB 52,761,664 as of March 31, 2025, compared to RMB 52,744,258 as of December 31, 2024 [54]. - Total shareholders' equity decreased to RMB 68,951,339 as of March 31, 2025, from RMB 71,447,995 as of December 31, 2024 [55]. Earnings Per Share - Basic and diluted net income per ADS attributable to ordinary shareholders was RMB0.76 (US$0.10) and RMB0.73 (US$0.10) in Q1 2025, compared to RMB0.38 and RMB0.37 in Q1 2024, respectively [32]. - Adjusted net income attributable to ordinary shareholders was RMB1,393 million (US$192 million) in Q1 2025, relatively flat compared to RMB1,392 million in Q1 2024 [30]. - The weighted average number of ordinary shares used in computing net income per share, basic, was 3,362,716,016 for the three months ended March 31, 2025 [58]. - The weighted average number of ADS used in computing net income per ADS, diluted, was 1,174,000,690 for the three months ended March 31, 2025 [60]. Cash Flow - The company experienced a net cash used in operating activities of RMB 3,965,271, an increase from RMB 2,108,532 in the prior year, indicating higher operational expenditures [62]. - The company’s cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash at the end of the period were RMB 22,918,385, down from RMB 24,783,312 at the beginning of the period [62]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the three months ended March 31, 2025, was RMB 1,841,720, an increase from RMB 1,665,669 in the previous year [59].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, the company's total transaction value (TTV) was RMB 844.2 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 34% [29] - Net revenue reached RMB 23.3 billion, up 42.4% year-over-year [29] - GAAP net income was RMB 855 million, increasing 97.9% year-over-year [41] - Gross margin declined by 4.5 percentage points year-over-year to 28.7% [29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue from existing home transactions reached RMB 6.9 billion, up 20% year-over-year [30] - GTV for new home transactions increased by 53% year-over-year, outperforming the market [32] - Revenue from home renovation and furniture business grew by 22.3% year-over-year, with a contribution margin of 32.6% [34][72] - Home rental services revenue reached RMB 5.1 billion, up 93.8% year-over-year [35] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The national GTV for in-home transactions grew by approximately 16% year-over-year in Q1 [28] - New home sales remained relatively flat year-over-year, down 0.4% [49] - The existing home market saw a 28% increase in transaction clients year-over-year [28] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on driving both scale and efficiency as part of its growth strategy [13] - Emphasis on optimizing collaboration with developers and improving agent efficiency in the new home transaction business [14] - The introduction of AI tools aims to enhance service quality and operational efficiency [18][20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management expressed cautious optimism regarding the property market, influenced by government policies and macroeconomic factors [25][52] - The company is closely monitoring the impact of international trade frictions on housing transactions [56] - Future market outlook will depend on domestic supportive measures and international trade dynamics [56] Other Important Information - The company has implemented a fund custody system in its home renovation business to enhance customer control and trust [24] - AI deployment is being tested in various segments, including housing transactions and home renovation, to improve service delivery [18][22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Outlook for the property market going forward - Management noted a strong recovery in the property market post-Chinese New Year, with stable performance expected [47][48] Question: Expansion plan for housing agents and agency stores - Management confirmed a focus on healthy growth of the agent network and improving efficiency of existing and new agents [59][60] Question: Home renovation and furniture business performance and AI strategy - Management highlighted a 22.3% revenue growth in the home renovation segment and detailed AI applications to enhance service quality [72]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, total TTV reached RMB 844.2 billion, a year-over-year increase of 34% [28] - Net revenue was RMB 23.3 billion, up 42.4% year-over-year [28] - GAAP net income increased by 97.9% year-over-year to RMB 855 million [40] - Gross margin declined by 4.5 percentage points year-over-year to 28.7% [28][37] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue from existing home transactions reached RMB 6.9 billion, up 20% year-over-year [29] - GTV for new home transactions increased by 53% year-over-year to RMB 232.2 billion [31] - Revenue from home renovation and furniture business grew by 22.3% year-over-year to RMB 2.9 billion [33] - Home rental services revenue reached RMB 5.1 billion, up 93.8% year-over-year [34] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - National GTV for in-home transactions grew by approximately 16% year-over-year [26] - GTV for new home transactions nationwide declined by 0.4% year-over-year [10] - The existing home market saw a 28% increase in transaction volume year-over-year [26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on driving both scale and efficiency as priorities for growth [12] - Emphasis on optimizing collaboration with developers and improving agent efficiency in new home transactions [13] - Continued investment in AI technology to enhance service quality and operational efficiency [17][66] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism regarding the property market, influenced by government policies and macroeconomic factors [52] - The company anticipates a typical seasonal slowdown in Q2 but expects slight year-over-year growth in transaction volume [52] - Monitoring the impact of international trade frictions on housing transactions and overall market stability [56] Other Important Information - The company has implemented a fund custody system in home renovation, enhancing customer control over renovation funds [22] - AI tools are being deployed to improve service efficiency and customer experience across various business lines [17][71] Q&A Session Summary Question: Outlook for the property market going forward - Management noted a strong recovery in the property market post-Chinese New Year, with stable performance expected [47][48] Question: Expansion plan for housing agents and agency stores - The company plans to continue promoting healthy growth in its agent network, with a focus on efficiency and income stability [59][60] Question: Specifics on home renovation and furniture segment operations - The segment achieved 22.3% year-over-year growth, with a contribution margin of 32.6% [70]

新房业务上，贝壳今年重点优化开发商合作界面，满足其去化需求，并提升服务者的房客匹配效率。一 季度，贝壳聚焦覆盖市场上的高热度楼盘；另一方面依托机制牵引，持续提升门店的新房业务参与度。 贝壳联合创始人、董事长、首席执行官彭永东表示："在稳定的市场表现和我们的增长策略持续显效基 础上，一季度我们的业务延续了高速增长。房产交易服务继续展现超市场表现。平台持续赋能更多产业 伙伴，人效、店效表现也在改善。家装家居业务收入稳健增长，贡献利润率创新高，客户体验改善和效 率提升初见成效。展望未来，我们对'一体三翼'战略下的公司长期发展充满信心，并将坚定地在AI应用 上持续投入。" 贝壳执行董事、首席财务官徐涛表示："一季度的市场表现非常稳健，延续了去年9月份政策所带来的积 极影响。存量房业务净收入同比增长20.0%，新房业务净收入同比增长64.2%。非房产交易服务业务净 收入同比增长46.2%，占总净收入的比例达到35.9%。我们的运营效率有所提高，第一季度经营费用为 42亿元，环比下降31.3%。盈利能力同样有所提升，经调整净利润达到13.93亿元。" 受益于市场企稳和公司增长战略，一季度，贝壳存量房业务GTV达到5803 ...