机构：申万宏源研究 研究员：袁豪/陈鹏 投资分析意见：经纪业务收入增长靓眼，多元赛道利润率稳步修复，维持"买入"评级。 贝壳深耕经纪赛道、多次开创行业先例。平台壁垒深铸，重塑经纪底层框架、锁定人房资源，平台赋能 具备全流程管控闭环；同时家装、租赁、贝好家有望成第二增长曲线；未来凭借流量优势通过大数据挖 掘客户需求，有望更广维度扩展业务版图。考虑到公司经纪业务费率短期波动，我们维持25-27 年归母 净利润预测值分别为62、75、91 亿元，现价对应25/26 年PE 分别为26、22 倍；维持25-27 年Non-GAAP 净利润预测值分别为90、103、118 亿元，对应25/26 年PE（Non-GAAP 业绩）分别为18、16 倍。考虑 到公司经纪业务市占率持续提升，家装家居、房屋租赁业务未来放量可期，公司当前估值仍具备优势， 维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：地产景气度下行、公司核心骨干变动。 25Q1 公司活跃门店数量55,210 家，同比+29.6%；活跃经纪人49.1 万名，同比+23.0%；门店及经纪人的 增加也将持续转化为业务规模提升，后续市占率有望持续提升。 25Q1 家装家居、房屋租赁收入同 ...

5月15日，房产经纪服务平台贝壳（NYSE：BEKE、02423.HK）发布2025年第一季度未经审计财务业 绩。 财报显示，一季度的市场表现延续了去年9月份政策所带来的积极影响。贝壳一季度实现总交易额 （GTV）为8437亿元，同比增长34.0%；净收入233亿元，同比增长42.4%；净利润8.55亿元，同比增长 98%。 《中国经营报》记者观察到，其中存量房业务净收入同比增长20.0%，新房业务净收入同比增长 64.2%。非房产交易服务业务净收入同比增长46.2%，占总净收入的比例达到35.9%。 一季度新房业务增速高于存量房业务，其中通过链家品牌进行的新房交易额由2024年同期305亿元增加 32.1%至403亿元；通过贝联经纪人等渠道完成的新房交易额由2024年同期1213亿元增加58.3%至1920亿 元。 这主要是缘于其持续聚焦覆盖市场上的高热度楼盘，另一方面依托机制牵引，继续提升门店的新房业务 参与度。贝壳管理层表示，今年将重点优化开发商合作界面，满足其去化需求，并提升服务者的房客匹 配效率。 贝壳管理层在业绩电话会上表示，后续楼市表现受国际贸易摩擦对地产交易的冲击，以及国内对冲政策 的力度与节 ...

新华财经上海5月16日电 美东时间5月15日，中国最大的房产交易和服务平台贝壳（NYSE:BEKE; HKEX:2423）发布了其2025年第一季度财务业绩。受财报 不及预期，特别是毛利率下降等因素影响，当日其美股股价下跌5.29%，收于19.16美元。 根据贝壳最新披露的财务数据，一季度，其存量房业务交易额同比增幅近三成，反映了其作为二手房市场头部中介服务商的"领跑者"地位之稳固。但与此同 时，社交平台上关于其中介收费"凭什么那么贵"的拷问甚嚣尘上。在存量房时代这场不同利益立场的碰撞中，中介服务深度与费率合理性间应当如何寻找平 衡点？ 存量房业务稳健增长贝壳持续巩固市场"领跑地位" 从贝壳最新发布的财务数据来看，2025年第一季度，贝壳实现总交易额（GTV）8437亿元，同比增长34.0%，净收入233亿元，同比增长42.4%，净利润8.55 亿元。核心业务板块中，存量房业务保持稳健增长态势，交易额达5803亿元，同比增长28.1%，贡献净收入69亿元，同比提升20.0%。 贝壳同时披露的经营数据显示，截至一季度末，活跃门店数量为5.52万家，活跃经纪人规模达49.09万名，分别实现29.6%和23.0%的 ...

上 市 公 司 房地产 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 2025 年 05 月 16 日 贝壳-W (02423) ——经纪业务收入增长靓眼，多元赛道利润率稳步修复 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 | 投资要点： | | --- | 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 77,777 | 93,457 | 110,740 | 122,649 | 135,786 | | 同比增长率（%） | 28 | 20 | 18 | 11 | 11 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 5,883 | 4,065 | 6,201 | 7,544 | 9,121 | | 同比增长率（%） | -524 | -31 | 53 | 22 | 21 | | 每股收益（元/股） | 1.63 | 1.15 | 1.77 | 2.15 | 2.60 | | 净资产收益率（%） | 8.16 | 5.70 | 8.68 | 10.70 | 13.17 | | 市盈率 | ...

美股盘前，中概股涨跌不一，阿里巴巴涨约2%，蔚来涨约3%，京东跌约2%，贝壳跌约1%。 ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·地产(HS) 贝壳-W（02423.HK） 2025Q1 业绩公告点评：营收稳健增长，经调 整利润略超预期 买入（维持） | Table_EPS] [盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 77,777 | 93,457 | 109,626 | 127,495 | 147,384 | | 同比（%） | 28.20 | 20.16 | 17.30 | 16.30 | 15.60 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 5,883 | 4,065 | 6,589 | 8,497 | 10,493 | | 同比（%） | 524.45 | (30.91) | 62.10 | 28.96 | 23.48 | | Non-GAAP 净利润（百万元） | 9,798 | 7,211 | 9,701 | 11,615 | 13,617 | | 同比（%） | 244.70 | (26.41) | 34.53 | 19.73 | 17.2 ...

证券研究报告 贝壳 (BEKE US) 1Q 新房收入大超预期，经纪人提效显著 | 华泰研究 | | | 季报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 5 月 | 16 日│美国 | 互联网 | 贝壳 1Q 业绩：营收同比增长 42%至 233 亿元，高于 VA 一致预期 4%（下 同）。1Q 经纪业务人均单量增长显著，存量房人均 GTV 同比提升超 9%。 分业务看，存量房、新房、家装、租赁的营收同比分别增长 20%、64%、 22%、64%。毛利率同比下降 4.5pct 至 20.7%，主系固定薪酬成本同比增 加 6 亿。得益于管理费用改善，经调整净利润同比上涨 0.1%至 14 亿。展 望 2Q，我们预期家装业务或首次实现利润打平，存量房和新房 GTV 同比 增速 12%和 25%。贝壳 24 年经纪人数量同比提升 17%，导致固定成本上 涨。我们预期伴随着 25 年 GTV 加速增长，经纪人效率与三费占比将持续 优化，推动公司净利润率实现逐季度提升；近期推出的 AI 系列工具亦有望 改善各业务效率。我们上调目标价至 27.02 美元，维持"买入"评级。 1Q ...

Company Analysis - Alibaba (BABA US) reported total revenue of 236.5 billion RMB for 4QFY25, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, aligning with expectations [2] - Adjusted EBITA reached 32.6 billion RMB, up 36% year-on-year, driven by improved profitability across all business segments [2] - The company is optimistic about the Taobao Group's steady profit growth in 1QFY26, supported by increased commission rates and healthy GMV growth [2] - Alibaba's cloud and AI sectors are identified as key strategic growth areas for the coming years [2] - NetEase (NTES US) reported a total revenue of 28.8 billion RMB for 1Q25, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7%, which met market expectations [7] - Operating profit increased by 37% to 10.4 billion RMB, exceeding market expectations by 25%, primarily due to effective control of operating expenses [7] - The gaming segment showed a 12% year-on-year revenue growth, surpassing market forecasts, indicating a recovery in growth momentum [7] - Beike (BEKE US) achieved a revenue of 23.3 billion RMB in 1Q25, a 42% year-on-year increase, outperforming market expectations [7] - The company reported a significant increase in transaction volumes for both existing and new homes, with respective year-on-year growth of 28% and 53% [7] - However, concerns arose from the company's cautious guidance for 2Q25, projecting a revenue of approximately 26 billion RMB, representing a 12% year-on-year increase [7] - Geely Automobile (175 HK) reported a net profit of 5.7 billion RMB for 1Q25, in line with previous profit forecasts [8] - The company achieved a 25% year-on-year revenue growth, with a notable improvement in cost control reflected in a 12% decrease in selling and administrative expenses [9] - Geely's overall performance is bolstered by the strong profitability of its Zeekr brand, which achieved a historical high gross margin of 21.2% in 1Q25 [9] Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,641, up 2.30% for the day and 38.68% year-to-date [4] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 2.13%, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 42.97% [4] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.86%, with a year-to-date growth of 14.42% [4] - The US markets showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.21% and the S&P 500 up 0.10% [6]

【企业】 央行：4月个人住房新发放贷款加权平均利率约3.1% 5月14日，中国人民银行发布的数据显示，4月份，企业新发放贷款加权平均利率约3.2%，比上年同期 低约50个基点。个人住房新发放贷款加权平均利率约3.1%，比上年同期低约55个基点，均处于历史低 位。 【政策】 中办、国办印发意见 提出持续推进城市更新行动八项主要任务 万科获深铁集团15.52亿元低息借款 5月14日，万科发布公告，披露深铁集团向其提供不超过15.52亿元的借款暨关联交易事项。该笔借款用 途为偿还公司债券本金与利息，借款期限为36个月，可提前还款或展期。借款利率为年化2.34%，低于 1年期LPR，还款方式为每半年还款0.5%，最后一期还97%。 贝壳：第一季度净利润人民币8.55亿元，同比增长97.9% 5月15日，贝壳发布2025年第一季度未经审计财务数据。第一季度，净收入达到人民币233亿元，同比增 长42.4%。存量房业务净收入达到人民币69 亿元，同比增长20.0%。新房业务净收入达到人民币81亿 元，同比增长64.2%。非房产交易服务业务净收入同比增长46.2%，占总净收入的比例达到35.9%。 【市场】 杭州钱塘区3宗 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $27.02 [6][22]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 42% year-on-year to RMB 23.3 billion in Q1, exceeding consensus expectations by 4% [1][11]. - The growth in revenue was driven by substantial increases in the new home and rental segments, with new home revenue growing by 64% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company is expected to achieve breakeven in its home renovation business in Q2, supported by improved operational efficiency and AI tools [2][12]. Revenue and Profitability - The revenue breakdown shows that existing home, new home, home renovation, and rental revenues grew by 20%, 64%, 22%, and 64% year-on-year, respectively [1][2]. - The adjusted net profit for Q1 was RMB 1.4 billion, a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, despite a decline in gross margin to 20.7% [1][4]. - The company anticipates continued improvement in net profit margins as agent efficiency and cost ratios optimize [1][3]. Business Segments Performance - The existing home segment's gross transaction value (GTV) increased by 28% year-on-year, outperforming the national average growth of 16% [2][11]. - The new home segment's GTV grew by 53% year-on-year, significantly higher than the national new home sales, which remained flat [2][11]. - The home renovation segment is expected to achieve profitability in Q2, with a notable increase in order volume and efficiency [12][14]. AI and Operational Efficiency - The implementation of AI tools has led to significant improvements in agent productivity, with transaction rates increasing by over 30% [3][13]. - AI capabilities are being integrated across various business functions, enhancing operational efficiency and customer satisfaction [13][14]. - The company is focusing on leveraging AI to streamline processes in home renovation and real estate transactions, which is expected to drive future growth [14][16]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upwards by 4.5%, 4%, and 0.6%, respectively, reflecting anticipated efficiency improvements and market growth [4][18]. - The adjusted net profit estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at RMB 82 billion, RMB 99 billion, and RMB 119 billion, respectively [4][18]. - The target price of $27.02 corresponds to a 27x PE ratio for 2025, indicating a premium valuation compared to peers [22][23].