作者｜天宇 来源｜派代 5月23日晚8点，罗永浩带着标志性的黑框眼镜，正式开启在百度优选的直播带货首秀。 数据显示，开播20分钟后，罗永浩"交个朋友"直播间在百度优选平台的618排位赛中位居第1名，实时在线观众数已超过230万。 此前，业内分析推测，结合百度流量扶持（如搜索跳转直播间）和罗永浩的IP效应，首秀GMV可能在0.8-1.2亿元区间。若达到预期，或将刷新百度直播电 商的单场纪录。 百度优选的带货首秀，早已不是罗永浩第一次跨平台作战。 从2020年4月的抖音首秀创下1.1亿元GMV，到2022年淘宝双11单场爆卖2.1亿元，再到2023年京东618带货3265万元，至如今百度优选首秀20分钟破230万人 的场观——罗永浩的每次迁徙，数据虽有所起伏，但始终证明了其"初代网红"的强悍号召力。 | 图源：派代 | | --- | 综合自公开数据 不过，罗永浩此番转战百度优选，依然出乎了不少人的意料——为什么是电商业务貌似已"掉队"的百度？ 虽然百度的月活高达7亿，但百度电商曾先后在"百度有啊"、"百度MALL"等项目上折戟，甚至还有不少商家认为："百度没有电商基因"。 而罗永浩2100万粉丝中，65%为男性 ...

Overview - The total revenue of Baidu Group increased slightly compared to last year, with adjusted net profit of 6.5 billion yuan and a stable adjusted net profit margin [1] - In Q1 2025, Baidu Group achieved total revenue of 32.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3% [1] - Baidu's core revenue was 25.5 billion yuan, up 7% year-on-year, while iQIYI's revenue was 7.2 billion yuan, down 9% [1] - The adjusted net profit for Baidu Group in Q1 2025 was 6.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 7% year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 20% [1] - Baidu's core business achieved an adjusted net profit of 6.3 billion yuan, down 4% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 25% [1] Advertising and Marketing - Baidu's core advertising revenue declined by 6%, with 35% of search results generated by AI, an increase of 13 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] - The online marketing revenue for Baidu's core business was 16 billion yuan, down 6% year-on-year, with managed page revenue accounting for 47%, indicating a continuous optimization of the advertising business structure [1] - Revenue generated for advertisers through agency services increased 30 times year-on-year, accounting for 9% of core online marketing revenue [1] AI and Cloud Services - The transition to search AI is accelerating, enhancing user experience [1] - Intelligent cloud services grew by 42% year-on-year, with non-GAAP operating profit remaining positive [1] - Intelligent cloud revenue reached 6.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42%, with a sustained positive non-GAAP operating profit margin [1] - Revenue related to GenAI and foundational models experienced triple-digit year-on-year growth, with significant demand for AI cloud services [1] Technological Empowerment and Ecosystem Expansion - The Q1 upgrade of the Qianfan platform promotes the development of native AI applications, with the no-code tool MIAODA launched to lower development barriers [2] - Apollo Go's international expansion has made substantial progress, maintaining its position as a leader in domestic autonomous driving services, providing over 1.4 million rides in Q1, a 75% year-on-year increase [2] - Apollo Go has now covered 15 cities, following its entry into Dubai and Abu Dhabi, with a cumulative service of over 11 million rides [2] Investment Outlook - The potential impact of AI technology on search advertising and intelligent cloud business is viewed positively [2] - Considering the macroeconomic pressure on advertising revenue and ongoing investment in Gen-AI research, adjusted net profit is expected to reach 24.1 billion yuan, 27 billion yuan, and 31.2 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [2]

Core Insights - Baidu Group's total revenue for Q1 2025 reached 32.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, exceeding expectations primarily due to strong growth in AI cloud revenue [1] - Non-GAAP net profit was 6.5 billion yuan, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of 19.9%, which is a decline of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to pressure on the relatively high-margin advertising business [1] - The proportion of AI cloud revenue in Baidu's core income increased by 6.5 percentage points year-on-year to 26.1%, while advertising revenue's share decreased by 8.7 percentage points [1] Revenue Breakdown - Baidu's core revenue grew by 7.0% year-on-year to 25.5 billion yuan, driven by better-than-expected AI cloud revenue [1] - Advertising revenue fell by 6.1% year-on-year to 16 billion yuan, impacted by moderate demand from advertisers and the effects of AI search transformation [1] - Non-advertising revenue increased by 39.6% year-on-year to 9.5 billion yuan, with AI cloud revenue growing by 42% year-on-year to 6.7 billion yuan [1] AI Transformation and User Engagement - In April, 35% of Baidu's search results included AI-generated content, up from 22% in January, indicating a proactive approach to AI transformation in search [2] - Baidu's app reached 724 million monthly active users in March, a year-on-year increase of 7%, suggesting improved user experience [2] - The "Agent" feature is becoming a significant part of Baidu's advertising business, with related revenue growing 30 times year-on-year in Q1 2025, accounting for 9% of core advertising revenue [2] Global Expansion and Order Growth - Baidu's "Luobo Kuaipao" service has expanded internationally, now operating in 15 cities with over 1,000 deployed vehicles, and saw a 75% year-on-year increase in order volume to 1.4 million in Q1 2025 [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company adjusted its non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 down by 6.8%, 5.7%, and 3.6% respectively, primarily due to downward revisions in high-margin advertising revenue expectations [3] - The target price based on SOTP valuation is set at $102.2, down from a previous $110.9, and HK$99.5, down from HK$108.3 [3]

Group 1 - The company specializes in providing daily-rebalanced ETP products that include leveraged, unleveraged, inverse, and inverse leveraged factors [3] - The research focuses on macroeconomic assessments, strategic sector viability, and market data trends to inform investment decisions [1] - There is a significant interest in Asian markets, particularly India and China, with in-depth analyses published on economic trends and business developments in the region [1] Group 2 - The company does not hold any stock or derivative positions in the companies mentioned, ensuring an unbiased perspective in its analyses [2] - The assets under management (AUM) are primarily influenced by investor interest rather than market movements [3] - The company emphasizes that past performance does not guarantee future results, highlighting the importance of careful consideration before investing [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][25]. Core Insights - The company's total revenue for Q1 2025 was 32.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3%. The adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 7% year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 20% [1][9]. - The core revenue from Baidu reached 25.5 billion yuan, up 7% year-on-year, while iQIYI's revenue was 7.2 billion yuan, down 9% year-on-year. The online marketing revenue decreased by 6% to 16 billion yuan [1][11]. - The advertising business continues to face pressure, with a 6% decline in core advertising revenue. However, 35% of search results now include AI-generated content, reflecting a 13 percentage point increase quarter-on-quarter [1][12]. - The AI cloud segment saw significant growth, with revenue reaching 6.7 billion yuan, a 42% increase year-on-year, driven by strong demand for generative AI and foundational model training [2][20]. - The Apollo Go autonomous driving service provided over 1.4 million rides in Q1 2025, a 75% increase year-on-year, expanding its coverage to 15 cities [21]. Financial Forecasts - The company is expected to achieve adjusted net profits of 24.1 billion yuan, 27 billion yuan, and 31.2 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [25]. - Revenue projections for the years 2025 to 2027 are 135.7 billion yuan, 143.6 billion yuan, and 152.3 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 1.9%, 5.9%, and 6.0% [4][27].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][25]. Core Insights - The company's total revenue for Q1 2025 was 32.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3%. The adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 7% year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 20% [1][9]. - The core revenue from Baidu reached 25.5 billion yuan, up 7% year-on-year, while iQIYI's revenue was 7.2 billion yuan, down 9% year-on-year. The online marketing revenue decreased by 6% to 16 billion yuan, but non-online marketing revenue grew by 40%, driven by the intelligent cloud business [1][11][12]. - The advertising business continues to face pressure, with a 6% decline in core advertising revenue. However, 35% of search results now include AI-generated content, indicating a shift towards AI integration [12][20]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Baidu's total revenue was 32.5 billion yuan, with adjusted net profit at 6.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 7% decline year-on-year. The adjusted net profit margin was 20% [1][9]. - The core business generated an adjusted net profit of 6.3 billion yuan, down 4% year-on-year, with a profit margin of 25% [1][9]. Business Segments - The core business revenue increased by 7% year-on-year, while iQIYI's revenue decreased by 9%. Online marketing revenue fell by 6%, but non-online marketing revenue surged by 40%, primarily due to the growth in intelligent cloud services [11][12]. - The intelligent cloud revenue reached 6.7 billion yuan, marking a 42% year-on-year increase, driven by the rising demand for generative AI and foundational model training [20][21]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that AI technology will significantly boost both search advertising and intelligent cloud business. The adjusted net profit projections for 2025-2027 are 24.1 billion, 27 billion, and 31.2 billion yuan, respectively [25][27].

几乎同一时间，中国头部Robotaxi玩家纷纷公布了最新进展。 小马智行宣布进入量产元年，将在年底部署1000辆车，其Robotaxi业务的乘客订单车费已暴涨800%。 文远知行的Robotaxi车队，已进入3大洲10城，数量超过1200辆，刚获得了Uber的1亿美元追加投资，达成目前行业内最大规模的Robotaxi合作计划。 而目前国内订单规模最大、已实现全无人驾驶运营的萝卜快跑，宣布一季度完成了140万次出行服务，平均1天接15555单，每分钟能跑完10单。 不同的是，在百度财报电话会议上，李彦宏还提到了那个自动驾驶领域正在追求，但目前无一玩家实现的目标——盈利。 "盈利路径已清晰" 百度财报业绩上，被问及萝卜快跑的潜力时，李彦宏一锤定音： 我们已经看到了清晰的盈利路径。 Robotaxi业务的技术难度、烧钱速度，市场有目共睹，盈利总是玩家们尽力尝试，但短期内仍难企及的终极目标。 李彦宏能说出这句话，意味着萝卜快跑背后，Robotaxi业务的运营模式已经形成一套可行的闭环，剩下的就是等待数量上的爆发。 他的底气，有三大核心部分支撑： 首先是成本，硬件和人力方面都在明显下降。 硬件层面，萝卜快跑目前的第六代 ...

3. 广告实际不佳，只能看 AI 搜索变现补缺： 广告是预期之中的承压，同比下滑了 6%。虽然符合公司给的指引，但鉴于一季度宏观环境没有想象中的差，因此部 分机构在上个月其实微微上调了百度广告的表现。这就导致从预期差的角度，广告收入也不好。 这也更加说明，一季度新增的流量，主要粘性在 AI 搜索上，传统广告无法直接受益。百度计划二季度逐步推行 AI 搜索商业化，可以关注下管理层的推行计划和 阶段目标。 具体来看 （只讨论百度核心） ： 1. 提供全网最低价的 DeepSeek，智慧云增速被拉爆： 百度算是误打误撞第一波吃满了 DeepSeek 红利的平台。在 DeepSeek 大火之后，百度不仅当机立断快速引 入，并且搞起大促销，提供全网最低价的算力，直接让智慧云增速由上季度的 28% 飙升到这季度的 42%。 2. 用户增长 "久旱逢甘霖"： 除了云，手百的流量也是 DeepSeek 的受益者。2 月中旬 DeepSeek 满血版接入百度搜索，激活了存量用户活跃度，手百月活直接环比 净增 4500 万，达到了历史新高的 7.24 亿。 4. 创新业务经济模型在改善： 从毛利率来看，一季度同比下滑了 7pct ...

以下为 百度 FY25Q1 的财报电话会纪要，财报解读请移步《百度：DeepSeek 成 "灵魂摆渡"？生死还得靠自己》 一、财报核心信息回顾 | | | | | | Baidu (BIDU.US; 9888.HK) Core Business Financial Results | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Figures in RMBm | 1023 | 2023 | 3023 | 4073 | 1024 | 2024 | 3024 | 4024 | 1025 | 1025e | vs. Consensus | | Baidu Core revenues | 22,998 | 26,407 | 26,572 | 27,488 | 23,803 | 26,687 | 26,524 | 27,698 | 25,463 | 23,903 | 6.5% beat | | YoY growth | 7.6% | 14.0% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 3.5% | ...

文｜偲睿洞察 308 编辑｜经纬 2024 年 6 月 10 日，苹果在本年度的 WWDC 活动上正式宣布了与 OpenAI 的合作，通过这一合作，苹 果将 ChatGPT 的能力（基于 GPT-4o，包括图像和文档理解）整合到 iOS、iPadOS 和 macOS 的体验中 去。 关于这一动态，业内有人称之为「iPhone 的 ChatGPT 时刻」。 然而，后来的事实证明，这个所谓的「iPhone 的 ChatGPT 时刻」虽然增加了苹果产品的 AI 属性，但却 与中国市场并没有什么关联——毕竟，ChatGPT 在中国并不可用。 于是，在 2024 年到 2025 年的中国市场，尽管消费者们也购买了号称「为 Apple 智能预备好 」的 iPhone，但他们却与真正意义上的 iPhone AI 体验并无关系，因为苹果在中国官网标注了一行小字： 「Apple 智能推出时间依监管部门审批情况而定」。 事实上，基于 AI 落地与应用的相关技术和政策限制，苹果在寻求 AI 面向 iPhone、Mac 等产品在中国 市场落地的过程中，不得不从中国本土市场寻找其面向自己产品的 AI 合作伙伴，其备选的潜在合作伙 伴包 ...