Core Insights - The competition in the down jacket market is intensifying, with Bosideng partnering with former Dior designer Kim Jones to elevate its brand image, while Lululemon demonstrates strong performance in China with a 25% revenue growth [1][4]. Industry Overview - The Chinese sportswear market, valued at over 380 billion yuan, has maintained a compound annual growth rate of 7.4% over the past five years, attracting numerous brands [2]. - The high-end down jacket segment is particularly competitive, with international brands like Canada Goose and Moncler leading the market, while local brands like Bosideng aim to carve out their niche [2]. Company Strategies - Bosideng's decision to hire Kim Jones reflects a strategic move towards high-end branding, leveraging the designer's reputation to enhance its market position [3][4]. - In contrast, Lululemon focuses on product experience rather than designer endorsements, showcasing its offerings through relatable marketing campaigns that emphasize functionality and quality [3][5]. Product Philosophy - Lululemon's commitment to product quality is evident in its upcoming Featherweight series, which features high-quality materials and innovative design aimed at enhancing user experience [5]. - The brand's recent financial results indicate a successful strategy, with a 25% revenue increase in China and a 17% growth in same-store sales, underscoring the effectiveness of its product-centric approach [4][5]. Consumer Behavior - Consumers are becoming more discerning, prioritizing value for money over brand prestige, which necessitates that products justify their price points through quality and performance [7][8]. - The current market dynamics suggest that brands must genuinely understand consumer needs and deliver high-quality products to succeed in a competitive landscape [8].

Core Viewpoint - The controversy surrounding Adidas down jackets being produced by OEMs such as Xuezhongfei and Bosideng has sparked significant consumer debate regarding brand pricing versus product quality [2][3][5] Group 1: Adidas and OEM Relationships - Adidas confirmed its collaboration with Xuezhongfei for manufacturing but did not address the pricing concerns directly [2][3] - Consumers have noted significant differences in product specifications between Adidas and its OEM counterparts, leading to questions about the value of paying a premium for the brand [3][5] - The Adidas jackets sold at higher prices often have lower specifications compared to similar products from Xuezhongfei, raising concerns about brand value versus product quality [3][5] Group 2: Consumer Reactions - Consumer responses are divided; some prefer to buy directly from OEMs like Xuezhongfei for better value, while others accept the brand's premium for perceived quality and design [5][7] - The lack of transparency regarding the OEM relationships and product specifications has led to confusion and dissatisfaction among some consumers [5][10] Group 3: Market Context and Brand Strategy - The practice of outsourcing production to local manufacturers is common among international brands like Adidas and Nike, which do not operate their own factories in China [7][10] - Adidas has reported that over 60% of its products sold in China are locally manufactured, highlighting the importance of the Chinese market, which accounts for approximately 15% of its global revenue [8][10] - The brand's strategy includes significant investment in brand image, technology, and marketing, which contributes to its pricing structure [7][10] Group 4: Bosideng's Role in the Market - Bosideng, a leading domestic down jacket manufacturer, derives about 13% of its revenue from OEM production, indicating the significance of this business model in its overall strategy [9][10] - The company has seen substantial growth in its OEM business, with a reported revenue increase of 26.4% year-on-year for its OEM segment [9][10] - Bosideng's success is attributed to its strong manufacturing capabilities and reputation, which also benefits its OEM partnerships [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The controversy surrounding Adidas down jackets being produced by domestic OEMs like Xuezhongfei has sparked significant consumer debate regarding brand pricing versus product quality [2][4][8] Group 1: Adidas and OEM Relationships - Adidas confirmed its collaboration with Xuezhongfei for manufacturing but did not address the pricing concerns directly [2] - Consumers have noted significant differences in product specifications between Adidas and Xuezhongfei's products, despite similar pricing [4] - The majority of Adidas products sold in China are manufactured locally, with over 60% produced by domestic teams and 95% made in China [8][9] Group 2: Consumer Reactions - Consumer responses are divided; some prefer to buy directly from Xuezhongfei for better value, while others accept the brand's premium for perceived quality and design [4][8] - The lack of transparency regarding the OEM relationships and product specifications has led to confusion and dissatisfaction among consumers [12] Group 3: Industry Context - The practice of outsourcing production to local manufacturers is common among international brands like Adidas and Nike, which do not operate their own factories in China [5][6] - The controversy reflects broader issues of global supply chain dynamics and consumer awareness regarding product sourcing and pricing [12] Group 4: Financial Performance - Adidas reported a revenue of €7.98 billion in the Greater China region, with a year-on-year growth of 11% [9] - The OEM business is a significant revenue source for companies like Bosideng, contributing approximately 13% to its total income, with a notable increase in revenue from this segment [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% within the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue growth of 11.6% to 25.9 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2024/25, with the main brand's revenue increasing by 10.1% to 18.48 billion yuan, demonstrating resilience despite a warm winter [1][3]. - The company is expected to maintain a revenue growth rate of 10% for the full fiscal year 2025/26, with net profit growth projected to exceed revenue growth [3]. - The launch of the "Puff" series at Paris Fashion Week and the introduction of the AREAL high-end urban line are part of the company's strategy to enhance brand image and international influence [2][3]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year 2025, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 25.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.6% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 3.51 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 14.3% [4]. - The company anticipates revenue growth of 10.1%, 10.4%, and 10.5% for the fiscal years 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively, reaching 28.51 billion yuan, 31.46 billion yuan, and 34.77 billion yuan [3][4]. Market Conditions - A significant drop in temperatures and a later Spring Festival in 2026 are expected to positively impact winter clothing sales, extending the sales season by approximately 15 days compared to 2025 [3]. - The company is focusing on product development in collaboration with internationally renowned designers and enhancing product functionality to strengthen its market position [3]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 3.92 billion yuan, 4.41 billion yuan, and 4.93 billion yuan for the fiscal years 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 11.7%, 12.4%, and 11.8% [4][3]. - The estimated price-to-earnings ratios for the next three fiscal years are 13, 12, and 11 times, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for Bosideng (03998.HK) [1][7] Core Insights - Bosideng has appointed renowned British fashion designer KIM JONES as the creative director for its high-end urban line AREAL, aiming to redefine the concept of business down jackets [2][4] - The AREAL series targets the high-end business fashion sector, featuring transformable layering designs and high-quality materials, with prices ranging from 2399 to 3999 yuan [4] - The company continues to focus on product innovation and optimizing store operations, with a strong emphasis on seasonal sales and rapid response to market demand [5][6] Financial Performance and Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 3.93 billion, 4.38 billion, and 4.79 billion yuan for the fiscal years 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13.2, 11.9, and 10.9 [7] - Projected revenue for the fiscal years 2024 to 2028 shows a steady increase from 23.21 billion yuan in 2024 to 34.11 billion yuan in 2028, with year-on-year growth rates of 38.4%, 11.6%, 10.1%, 9.9%, and 8.9% respectively [9][11] - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 57.6% to 57.8% over the next five years, while the net profit margin is projected to improve slightly from 13.2% in 2024 to 14.0% in 2028 [9][11]

中金发表研究报告指，波司登在上半年淡季期间取得稳健的零售表现，为即将到来的旺季奠定基础。该 行维持公司2026及27财年的每股盈测分别为0.34及0.38元，续予"跑赢行业"评级，该行考虑到行业估值 中枢上移，目标价上调4.6%至5.89港元。 ...

Core Insights - The appointment of Kim Jones as the creative director for Bosideng's high-end series is seen as a significant move towards the company's high-end strategy, resulting in a market response that added HKD 4.7 billion to shareholder value [2][4] - Bosideng's stock price surged nearly 9% to HKD 4.91, marking a recent high, indicating strong investor confidence in the brand's strategic direction [2][4] Market Reaction - Kim Jones' joining is perceived as a pivotal step in Bosideng's strategy for high-end market positioning and international brand recognition [4] - The global downtrend of high-end down jacket brands like Canada Goose presents an opportunity for Bosideng to capture market share [4][12] Industry Context - Kim Jones is a renowned designer with a successful track record at Louis Vuitton and Dior, known for his ability to blend high fashion with streetwear, which aligns with Bosideng's aspirations [6][8] - The fashion industry is witnessing a shift, with established high-end brands facing growth challenges, creating a potential opening for domestic brands like Bosideng [12][13] Financial Performance - Bosideng reported a revenue of CNY 25.9 billion for the fiscal year 2024/25, marking a historical high and a 14.3% increase in net profit to CNY 3.51 billion [12] - The company's marketing expenses have significantly increased, raising concerns about the sustainability of its growth strategy [12][13] Strategic Moves - Bosideng has previously collaborated with various international designers, but Kim Jones' role is more integrated, covering design, visual arts, and global marketing strategies [8] - The brand's high-end series "Dengfeng" was launched with prices exceeding CNY 10,000, although it faced criticism regarding its perceived value [9][11] Competitive Landscape - Bosideng faces multifaceted competition from both high-end brands like Moncler and Canada Goose, as well as cross-category competitors like Lululemon [13] - The brand's ability to establish a strong luxury perception and narrative will be crucial for its success in the high-end market [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The appointment of Kim Jones as the creative director for Bosideng's high-end series is seen as a significant step in the company's strategy to upscale its brand and product offerings, leading to a notable market response with a stock price increase of nearly 9% [2][4][10]. Company Strategy - Bosideng aims to transition towards a high-end market, as evidenced by its previous initiatives, including a logo redesign and the launch of its first high-end series "Dengfeng" priced above 10,000 yuan [7][8]. - The company has previously collaborated with various international designers, but Kim Jones's role marks a deeper involvement in design, visual arts, and global marketing strategies [6][8]. Market Dynamics - The global down jacket market is experiencing shifts, with traditional high-end brands like Canada Goose facing growth challenges, creating opportunities for domestic brands like Bosideng to capture market share [4][10]. - The competitive landscape is becoming more complex, with Bosideng needing to address both high-end competitors and cross-category challengers [12]. Financial Performance - Bosideng reported a revenue of 25.9 billion yuan for the 2024/25 fiscal year, marking a historical high for eight consecutive years, with a net profit increase of 14.3% to 3.51 billion yuan [10]. - The company's sales and distribution expenses have surged from 2.45 billion yuan to 8.055 billion yuan from 2018 to 2024, indicating a high dependency on marketing for growth [12]. Industry Impact - Kim Jones's appointment is viewed as a pivotal moment for Bosideng, potentially enhancing its brand perception and market positioning in the high-end segment [4][11]. - The fashion industry is witnessing a trend towards rational consumer behavior, where both high-end appeal and cost-effectiveness are prioritized [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Bosideng's main brand is experiencing high-quality growth, with expectations for strong sales during the peak season [7] - The company is focusing on brand building and differentiated channel operations, including the launch of new products at Paris Fashion Week and the opening of a new concept store in Shanghai [7] - Financial forecasts indicate steady revenue growth, with total revenue projected to reach 25.9 billion yuan in FY2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.6% [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue (in million yuan) for FY2024A is projected at 23,214, increasing to 25,902 in FY2025A, 28,512 in FY2026E, 31,420 in FY2027E, and 34,626 in FY2028E, with year-on-year growth rates of 38.39%, 11.58%, 10.08%, 10.20%, and 10.20% respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders (in million yuan) is expected to grow from 3,074 in FY2024A to 3,514 in FY2025A, 3,938 in FY2026E, 4,393 in FY2027E, and 4,897 in FY2028E, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 43.74%, 14.31%, 12.06%, 11.57%, and 11.45% [1] - The report anticipates an EPS of 0.27 yuan for FY2024A, increasing to 0.30 yuan in FY2025A, 0.34 yuan in FY2026E, 0.38 yuan in FY2027E, and 0.42 yuan in FY2028E [1] Operational Insights - The main brand's revenue for FY2025 is projected at 21.67 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.0%, accounting for 83.7% of total revenue [7] - The report notes a significant increase in wholesale and self-operated business revenues, with wholesale up by 24.3% and self-operated by 5.2% [7] - The company has added 253 retail outlets, bringing the total to 3,470 by the end of FY2025 [7] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for FY2025 is expected to be 57.3%, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a higher proportion of lower-margin wholesale and OEM business [7] - The net profit margin for FY2025 is projected to be 13.6%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [7] - Operating cash flow is expected to be 39.82 billion yuan, indicating a healthy financial position [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that CICC maintains the EPS forecast for Bosideng at 0.34/0.38 HKD for FY26/27, with a target price increase of 4.6% to 5.89 HKD, indicating a 20% upside potential from the current stock price [1] - Recent research indicates that Bosideng's flagship store on Nanjing East Road in Shanghai has shown robust retail performance during the off-season, laying a solid foundation for the upcoming peak season [1] - Despite renovations at the main flagship store, Bosideng's sales in the Shanghai region remained strong in 1HFY26, supported by enhanced product and brand strength, as well as refined marketing management [1][2] Group 2 - CICC expects Bosideng's revenue to remain stable in 1HFY26, with healthy growth in the core down jacket business despite some fluctuations in OEM due to tariffs [2] - The company’s distribution channels have performed well under flexible policy guidance, contributing significantly to business growth in 1HFY26 [2] - Bosideng's collaboration with renowned designer Kim Jones to launch the new "AREAL Advanced Urban Line" demonstrates its commitment to upgrading its brand towards a high-end strategy [2]