Core Viewpoint - The aviation industry is expected to see a significant recovery in passenger turnover and profitability by 2025, with a projected passenger turnover of 1,099 billion person-kilometers in November 2025, representing an 18.2% increase compared to 2019 and a 9.6% increase compared to 2024 [1]. Aviation Passenger Transport Key Data - Demand: In November 2025, domestic passenger turnover (excluding regional) is projected to be 809 billion person-kilometers, up 19.6% from 2019 and 6.3% from 2024. International and regional passenger turnover is expected to reach 291 billion person-kilometers, reflecting a 14.5% increase from 2019 and a 19.9% increase from 2024 [1]. - Supply: The available seat kilometers in November 2025 are projected to be 1,283 billion, up 12.4% from 2019 and 6.4% from 2024. The passenger load factor is expected to be 85.7%, an increase of 4.2 percentage points from 2019 and 2.5 percentage points from 2024 [2]. - Ticket Prices: In November, the average full ticket price for domestic routes is expected to rise by 3.5% year-on-year, while the bare ticket price is expected to increase by 3.8% [2]. - Performance of Listed Airlines: In November, the year-on-year RPK changes for major airlines on domestic routes are as follows: China Southern +7.4%, Air China +7.4%, China Eastern +5.1%, Hainan Airlines +4.5%, Spring Airlines +17.9%, and Juneyao Airlines +0.8%. The ASK changes for these airlines are +5.4%, +3.8%, +2.1%, +2.8%, +16.3%, and -0.5% respectively [2]. Air Cargo Key Data - In November 2025, the number of international and regional cargo flights is expected to reach 15,977, reflecting a 12.4% increase month-on-month and a 14% increase year-on-year. The theoretical cargo capacity is projected to be 110 million tons, with an 8.2% month-on-month increase and a 12.2% year-on-year increase [3]. - The average TAC Shanghai outbound air freight price index is expected to be 5,469 points, reflecting a 1.5% month-on-month increase and a 16.2% year-on-year increase [3]. Investment Perspective - The increase in holiday time and significant year-on-year growth in industry volume and price suggest a positive outlook for Q1 spring travel performance. The recent seven-day passenger flow shows a year-on-year increase of 12.9%, with domestic passenger flow up 13.7% and bare ticket prices up 7.9% [4]. - The industry is expected to benefit from supply-demand recovery, improved oil and exchange rate conditions, and a clear trend of profitability recovery. The fourth quarter is anticipated to see a significant reduction in losses due to demand growth and stabilized ticket prices, with 2025 expected to be the first year of profitability for major airlines [4]. - Recommended stocks include Air China (601111), China Southern Airlines (600029), Juneyao Airlines (603885), Spring Airlines (601021), and Huaxia Airlines (002928), with a suggestion to pay attention to China Eastern Airlines (600115) [4].

截至月份: 2025年12月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 第 1 頁 共 11 頁 v 1.1.1 公司名稱: 招商證券股份有限公司（「本公司」） 呈交日期: 2026年1月7日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | A | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 否 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 600999 | 說明 | | 於上海證券交易所 （「上交所」）上市之A股 | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 7,422,005,272 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 7,422,005,272 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | RMB | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 7,422,005,272 | RMB | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has issued a regulatory warning to Ningbo Tianpu Rubber Technology Co., Ltd. due to its misleading information disclosure regarding its business operations related to artificial intelligence, which led to abnormal stock price fluctuations [1][2]. Group 1: Company Actions and Announcements - On December 29 and 30, 2025, Tianpu's stock price hit the daily limit up for two consecutive trading days, triggering abnormal fluctuation standards [1]. - The company announced that it had no plans to engage in artificial intelligence-related business and that there were no undisclosed significant information [1]. - On December 26, 2025, the company established a wholly-owned subsidiary, Hangzhou Tianpu Xincai Technology Co., Ltd., with a business scope that included integrated circuit chip design and artificial intelligence software development [1]. - Following media reports about the subsidiary, the company changed the subsidiary's business scope to rubber product manufacturing and automotive parts manufacturing on December 31, 2025 [1]. Group 2: Regulatory Findings - The Shanghai Stock Exchange noted that the term "artificial intelligence" is a market hotspot, and the company's previous control transfer plans involved AI-related market entities, leading to multiple instances of abnormal stock price fluctuations [2]. - The company failed to adequately clarify its lack of plans for AI-related business after the establishment of the subsidiary, which could mislead investors [2]. - The company's actions were found to violate several articles of the Shanghai Stock Exchange's listing rules, including inadequate risk disclosure and incomplete information [2]. Group 3: Accountability of Individuals - The then-director Shen Weiyi (acting chairman) and the then-secretary of the board Wu Pinyan were held responsible for the company's violations due to their failure to fulfill their duties regarding information disclosure [3]. - Their actions were found to contravene multiple articles of the listing rules and their commitments made in the declaration and commitment letter [3]. - As a result of these violations, the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued a regulatory warning to both the company and the responsible individuals [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that 招商证券 has initiated coverage on 极智嘉 with a "Buy" rating and a target price of 35 HKD, indicating a positive outlook on the company's future performance [1] - 极智嘉 is recognized as the largest provider of Automated Mobile Robot (AMR) solutions for warehousing globally, addressing inefficiencies, high costs, and lack of flexibility in traditional warehousing [1] - The company possesses high technical barriers with integrated hardware and software solutions, leading to strong customer loyalty [1] Group 2 - There is significant growth potential for the penetration rate of AMR solutions, which is expected to increase rapidly, allowing the company to benefit as a market leader [1]

Core Insights - The course titled "Securities Investment Research: Methodology and Practical Tools" was conducted by China Merchants Securities for students at Southern University of Science and Technology, marking the conclusion of their 2025 educational series [1][4] Group 1: Course Structure and Content - The course provided a comprehensive breakdown of the securities market structure, focusing on the multi-tiered capital market ecosystem composed of primary and secondary markets [3] - Key indices such as CSI, SSE, and SZSE were explained to help students understand market layers, establishing a clear theoretical framework [3] - Practical investment tools were introduced, particularly emphasizing ETF index investment as a means to capture structural market opportunities while managing investment risks [3] Group 2: Educational Collaboration and Impact - The collaboration between China Merchants Securities and Southern University of Science and Technology in 2025 included a diverse financial education content system, featuring courses on fintech, quantitative strategies, and investment research methods [4] - The initiative involved hands-on experiences, such as visits to exchanges and historical museums, promoting deep integration of industry and academia through a "classroom teaching + practical experience" model [4] - The educational series has effectively reached over a hundred students, delivering professional financial knowledge and fostering a solid foundation for talent in the financial industry [4]

招商证券发布研报称，高温合金作为先进金属材料体系的"皇冠明珠"，是航空发动机、燃气轮机及核电 装备等关键领域的核心承力材料，其性能直接决定高端装备的推力、效率与寿命。近年来，受"两机专 项"、国产大飞机C919批产、燃气轮机国产化突破及"双碳"战略驱动，我国高温合金产业链进入加速阶 段。伴随航空发动机换代列装、燃机与核电项目密集投产，行业景气度将持续上行。建议聚焦航空发动 机及燃机核心供应链，维持行业投资评级"推荐"。 招商证券主要观点如下： 风险提示：技术验证进度不及预期、主机厂认证周期延长、原料价格波动、军机与燃机项目节奏调整、 资金与政策支持不确定等 近年行业需求呈爆发式增长，2017-2023年产量从1.9万吨增至4.9万吨(CAGR17.1%)，需求量从2.1万吨 增至5.2万吨(CAGR16.8%)，供需缺口逐步收窄。2024年产量预计达5.7万吨(同比+16.3%)，航空航天 (55%)和电力(20%)为核心需求领域。长期看，航空发动机换代列装、商用飞机国产化、燃气轮机突破等 因素将推动2025-2030年行业年均需求超5.65万吨，其中燃气轮机、航空、汽车为主要增长点。 供给侧：产能扩张与国产 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities highlights that Geekplus (02590) is the world's largest provider of Autonomous Mobile Robot (AMR) solutions for warehouse fulfillment, addressing the inefficiencies, high costs, and lack of flexibility in traditional warehousing [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Geekplus is recognized as the largest AMR solution provider globally, offering a comprehensive range of solutions and a vast customer base [1] - The company leverages robotics to enable intelligent transformation in warehousing logistics, effectively addressing issues such as low efficiency, reliability, high costs, and poor flexibility in traditional warehouses [1] - Key competitive advantages include: 1) Integrated hardware and software solutions with advanced robot control algorithms capable of managing over 5,000 robots, significantly outperforming the industry average [1] 2) Strong global delivery and service capabilities, with approximately 80% of revenue generated from markets outside mainland China, where profit margins are notably higher [1] 3) High customer retention with a nearly 80% repurchase rate and recognition from over 65 Fortune 500 companies across more than 40 countries [1] Group 2: Market Potential - The AMR solutions market is projected to grow rapidly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 33% from 2024 to 2029, reaching a market size of 162 billion RMB by 2029 [2] - The penetration rate of AMR solutions in the overall warehouse automation sector is expected to rise from 8.2% in 2024 to 20.2% by 2029, indicating significant growth potential [2] Group 3: Financial Projections and Ratings - The company anticipates a CAGR of over 25% in order volume from 2022 to 2024, with a projected revenue growth of 32.2%, 31.9%, and 30.4% for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027 [3] - It is expected that the company will achieve adjusted profitability in fiscal year 2025, with net profits projected at -0.1 million, 2.8 million, and 6.0 million RMB for 2025 to 2027 [3] - The initial coverage rating is set to "Buy" with a target price of 35 HKD, based on a valuation of 10.0x P/S for FY26E, aligning with the average valuation levels of comparable companies in the AMR sector [3]

Core Viewpoint - Company is the largest global provider of Autonomous Mobile Robot (AMR) solutions for warehousing, addressing inefficiencies, high costs, and low flexibility in traditional warehousing [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Company has a high technical barrier with integrated hardware and software solutions, leading to strong customer loyalty [1] - Company has a significant market presence with a 9% market share in 2024 and has ranked first globally for six consecutive years, serving over 65 Fortune 500 clients [1] - Approximately 80% of the company's revenue comes from markets outside mainland China, where competition is lower and profit margins are higher [1] Group 2: AMR Solution Growth Potential - AMR solutions are expected to grow rapidly, with a projected CAGR of over 33% from 2024 to 2029, reaching a market size of 162 billion RMB by 2029 [2] - The penetration rate of AMR solutions in the overall warehousing automation market is expected to increase from 8.2% in 2024 to 20.2% by 2029 [2] Group 3: Financial Projections and Valuation - Company anticipates a CAGR of over 25% in order volume from 2022 to 2024, with revenue growth projections of 32.2%, 31.9%, and 30.4% for 2025 to 2027 [3] - The company is expected to achieve adjusted profitability in the fiscal year 2025, with net profits projected at -0.1 million, 2.8 million, and 6.0 million RMB for 2025 to 2027 [3] - A target price of 35 HKD is set, based on a valuation of 10.0x P/S for FY26E, aligning with the average valuation levels of comparable companies in the AMR sector [3]

Core Viewpoint - The trend of RMB appreciation combined with the historical end-of-year and early-year period serves as a window for foreign capital to allocate into A-shares, with short-term expectations of net inflows contributing to incremental funds [1][2] Group 1: Market Trends - Historically, various types of funds show specific changes in January, with insurance and foreign capital typically positioning themselves at the beginning of the year, while financing funds tend to weaken towards the end of January [2] - The overall market in January is likely to present a structural inflow of incremental funds, which is expected to support the upward trend of A-shares and continue the spring rally, with a recommendation for large-cap style [1][2] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The central bank's net injection in the open market was 700.9 billion yuan from December 29 to December 31, with 1.322 trillion yuan in reverse repos and 60 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits maturing in the upcoming week [2] - Money market interest rates are declining, while both short and long-term government bond yields are rising, with a decrease in the issuance scale of interbank certificates of deposit [2] Group 3: Fund Supply and Demand - The net inflow of funds in the secondary market is expanding, with a decrease in financing balance and net selling of financing funds amounting to 2.27 billion yuan [3] - There is a notable reduction in the issuance of new equity public funds, and significant shareholders are increasing their net reduction scale [3] Group 4: Market Sentiment - The trading activity of financing funds has weakened, leading to a decrease in equity risk premium, with turnover rates for various style indices and major industry categories generally declining [3] - The VIX index has risen, indicating a decrease in risk appetite in overseas markets [3] Group 5: Industry Preferences - In terms of industry preferences, sectors such as non-ferrous metals, defense and military industry, and household appliances have seen higher net inflows from various funds [3] - The broad-based ETF has primarily experienced net redemptions, with the largest redemptions occurring in the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF [3]

Core Viewpoint - Shengyuan Environmental Protection's subsidiary has reported significant losses from a private equity fund investment, leading to legal actions against the fund manager and custodian, with ongoing discussions about the responsibilities of custodians in such scenarios [1][3][4]. Group 1: Incident Overview - Shengyuan Environmental Protection announced a major loss from a private equity fund investment made by its wholly-owned subsidiary, Xiamen Jinlingji Construction Engineering Co., Ltd., amounting to approximately 46.92 million yuan, with a net value decline of 81.54% [3][4]. - The company has filed a report with the Shenzhen Public Security Bureau, which has been officially accepted, and is pursuing legal action against the fund manager, Shenzhen Shenboxin Investment Management Co., Ltd., and custodian, China Merchants Securities [3][4]. Group 2: Legal and Regulatory Context - The legal responsibilities of custodians like China Merchants Securities are under scrutiny, particularly regarding their duty to supervise and verify fund operations and compliance with legal and contractual obligations [6][10]. - Legal experts indicate that custodians are primarily responsible for safeguarding fund assets and ensuring compliance with investment directives, but they do not guarantee investment returns or directly participate in investment decisions [6][10]. Group 3: Custodian's Response and Market Reactions - China Merchants Securities has publicly stated that it has fulfilled its custodial duties according to regulations and contractual agreements, emphasizing that the fund manager is responsible for accurate net value disclosures [5][6]. - The incident has sparked discussions in the market regarding the boundaries of custodial responsibilities, with past cases showing varied outcomes for custodians in similar situations [8][9].