Core Insights - Goldman Sachs released a report titled "2025-2035 Global Stock Market Decadal Outlook," which emphasizes a shift from the previous decade's "U.S. stock dominance" and warns of potential corrections in asset pricing [1] - The report suggests that the S&P 500's annualized nominal total return is expected to decline to 6.5% over the next decade, a significant drop from the 15% annualized return seen in the past ten years [1][3] Return Attribution Analysis - Earnings growth is projected to contribute positively, with an expected annual compound growth rate of approximately 6%, indicating robust fundamentals for U.S. stocks [3] - Dividend returns are anticipated to contribute around 1.4% to total returns [4] - Valuation adjustments are expected to be the largest drag on returns, with the current forward P/E ratio at 23x, which is historically high. A gradual contraction in valuation multiples is predicted to negatively impact total returns by about 1% annually [4] Global Market Opportunities - As U.S. stock returns are expected to decline, relative value in global assets is becoming more apparent. Goldman Sachs forecasts a 7.7% annualized return for global equities (MSCI ACWI), surpassing U.S. stocks [6] - Non-U.S. markets, both developed and emerging, are expected to outperform U.S. stocks due to structural advantages and more attractive valuations [8] Regional Performance Expectations - Emerging markets are projected to have a 10.9% annualized return, driven by strong EPS growth in China and India [10] - Asia (excluding Japan) is expected to yield a 10.3% return, supported by approximately 9% EPS growth and a 2.7% dividend yield [10] - Japan is forecasted to achieve an 8.2% return, bolstered by EPS growth and policy-led improvements in shareholder payouts [12] - Europe is expected to deliver a 7.1% return, with half of this driven by earnings and the other half by shareholder returns [10] Strategic Recommendations - The report suggests a shift from a concentrated investment strategy focused on U.S. stocks, particularly tech giants, to a more balanced global allocation to mitigate risks associated with declining Sharpe ratios [15] - It advocates for increasing exposure to emerging markets and non-U.S. developed markets to capture potential valuation recovery and benefits from currency fluctuations [16]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs Asset Management identifies several market opportunities for the upcoming year that extend beyond the AI sector, suggesting a broadening rally in various market segments [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Opportunities - Small-cap companies are positioned to benefit from the AI boom, focusing on niche markets rather than competing directly with larger firms, with the Russell 2000 index up 11.3% year-to-date [3]. - The healthcare sector is experiencing growth partly due to AI hype, with the iShares US Healthcare ETF increasing by 14.5% year-to-date, indicating investment potential in this area [4]. - International stocks have outperformed the US equity market this year, with the Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF rising by 26.8% year-to-date, suggesting a favorable outlook for international equities [5][6]. Group 2: Market Outlook - The overall market outlook for risk assets appears strong, supported by factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which are expected to benefit various sectors [2][7]. - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the stock market rally will continue to broaden across multiple sectors in the next year, recommending diversification into small caps, healthcare, and international stocks [7].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the oil industry, specifically the impact of potential Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations on crude and refined product prices. Core Insights and Arguments - **Crude Price Decline**: Brent crude prices have decreased by 5% to $62 per barrel as the market reassesses the likelihood of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal [1][2] - **Downside Risks**: There are estimated downside risks of $4-5 to Brent/WTI price forecasts for 2026 due to a potential peace deal, which could lead to a gradual recovery in Russian production and increased oil inventories in OECD pricing centers [1][5] - **Refined Product Prices**: A stronger immediate decline in refined product prices is expected due to: 1. A 0.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) decline in Russian refined product exports since March 2022, while crude exports have remained stable [1][15] 2. Higher geopolitical risk premiums currently priced into product margins compared to crude prices [1][21] 3. Potential normalization of freight rates if voyage journeys shorten [1][23] - **European Diesel Margins**: European diesel margins have dropped nearly 25% to $28 per barrel, reflecting the market's reaction to renewed peace talks [2] Additional Important Insights - **Production Forecasts**: The base case assumes that sanctions on Russia's oil sector will persist, leading to a decline in Russian liquids production to 9.0 mb/d by the end of 2027 from 10.1 mb/d in Q4 2025 [3] - **Gradual Recovery**: Even with the removal of sanctions, a gradual recovery in Russian oil production is expected due to structural issues such as technological and operational bottlenecks [6] - **Oil on Water**: The volume of Russian crude on water has increased by approximately 80 million barrels since the start of the war, which could lead to a reduction in prices if sanctions are lifted [7][10] - **Market Dynamics**: The ongoing conflict has tightened refined product markets more than crude markets, with significant declines in diesel and gasoil exports following EU sanctions [18] - **Risk Premiums**: A $7 per barrel premium for European gasoil/diesel margins over Brent is attributed to risks associated with Russia [22] - **Freight Rates**: Sanctions have shifted Russian oil flows from West to East, increasing tanker freight rates by around $3 per barrel since the war began [23] Recommendations - Investors are advised to short the 2026Q3-Dec2028 Brent timespread and for oil producers to hedge against 2026 price downside, while consumers should hedge against price increases expected from 2028 [27][28]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts gold prices will reach $4,900 per ounce by 2026, driven by central bank demand and ETF purchases, with a potential for significant price increases if retail investors diversify into gold [1][2] Group 1: Price Predictions - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price forecast for 2026 from $4,300 to $4,900 per ounce, citing strong inflows into Western ETFs and ongoing central bank purchases as key drivers [1][3] - The firm expects gold prices to increase by nearly 20% by the end of 2026, although this growth rate is lower than the nearly 60% increase observed in 2023 [1] Group 2: Drivers of Demand - The primary driver of gold demand is the structural increase in central bank purchases, particularly from emerging markets, which are diversifying their reserves into gold following the freezing of Russian central bank assets [1][3] - The second key driver is the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which are expected to lead to increased investments in gold ETFs as gold is a non-yielding asset [1][2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The current gold market is relatively small compared to the U.S. bond market, with global gold ETF holdings being only one-seventieth of the U.S. bond market, indicating that even a small shift in investment could significantly impact gold prices [1] - The ongoing trend of central banks shifting reserves from U.S. dollars to gold is expected to continue, with central bank gold purchases projected to reach 80 tons in 2025 and maintain at 70 tons in 2026 [3]

"自2022年俄罗斯央行储备被冻结以来，新兴市场储备管理者得到了一个重要的警示：他们需要增持黄 金以实现多元化。一旦将黄金储存在国内金库中，它就是唯一真正安全的资产，"斯特鲁文在采访中表 示。他补充说，高盛经济学家目前预测美联储还将降息75个基点。 "私营部门多元化配置可能推动金价大幅上涨的关键原因在于黄金市场的规模相对较小，"斯特鲁文指 出，黄金ETF市场的规模比美国国债市场小约70倍——"这是我们将黄金列为最推荐做多的大宗商品的 另一个原因。" 由于市场对美联储下月降息的预期日益增强，黄金期货周三连续第四个交易日上涨。 智通财经APP获悉，高盛全球大宗商品研究共同主管达安·斯特鲁文表示，在央行增购和利率下降的推 动下，明年晚些时候金价可能攀升至每盎司4900美元。但他也指出，即使零售投资者向多元化配置迈出 一小步，也可能带来更大的上行空间。 一批最新公布的延迟美国数据显示，9月零售销售小幅增长，批发价格涨幅符合预期。与此同时，三菱 日联银行分析师Soojin Kim在报告中写道："政策转向的可能性获得了额外动力，因为被广泛视为下一 任美联储主席最热门人选的凯文·哈塞特，被认为与特朗普支持降低借贷成本的观点 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that due to severe supply surplus, Brent crude oil prices may drop to the $30 range by 2027, highlighting significant supply-demand imbalance in the global energy market [1] - Goldman Sachs advises investors to short oil immediately, forecasting that WTI crude oil prices will average $53 per barrel in 2026 due to a daily supply surplus of 2 million barrels [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Major investment banks indicate that large-scale supply from OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers in the Americas continues to flood the market, contributing to downward price pressure [1] - Different institutions provide varying timelines for market rebalancing, with Morgan Stanley suggesting that Brent crude could fall to $30 by 2027, while Goldman Sachs believes the market may rebalance by 2027 after a final wave of supply in 2026 [3] Geopolitical Factors - Recent diplomatic talks between the U.S. and Ukraine may ease geopolitical tensions, potentially leading to a relaxation of sanctions against Russia, which could further increase supply pressure in an already oversupplied market [4] - Analysts are closely monitoring the developments of these negotiations, as a peace agreement could allow more Russian energy supplies to enter the global market [4]

Group 1 - The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. increased its stake in Dongfang Electric Corporation (01072.HK) by purchasing 1,171,800 shares at an average price of HKD 19.8199 per share, totaling approximately HKD 23.225 million [1] - Following this transaction, Goldman Sachs' total holdings in Dongfang Electric rose to 29,620,028 shares, increasing its ownership percentage from 6.97% to 7.26% [1][3]

Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed on November 26th, 2025, with a gain of 314.67 points (0.6679%), reaching 47427.12, driven by investor optimism regarding a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December [1] - Despite mixed economic data, the sentiment around monetary policy easing contributed to a broader rally in U.S. equities ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday [1] Contributing Factors - Expectations of a rate cut, a sustained AI-led rally, and solid corporate earnings reports were key contributors to the market's strong performance [2] - Technology companies experienced renewed interest, extending a multi-day winning streak for major indexes, with advancers significantly outnumbering decliners on the NYSE [2] Company Performance - Boeing (BA) led the Dow's components with a gain of +2.58%, followed by Walmart (WMT) at +2.29% and Microsoft (MSFT) at +1.96% [3] - Goldman Sachs (GS) and Home Depot (HD) also saw increases of +1.66% and +1.51%, respectively [3] - Salesforce (CRM) was the biggest laggard, dropping -2.68%, potentially due to company-specific news or sector rotation, with IBM (IBM) and Merck & Co. (MRK) also declining by -0.39% and -0.24% [3]

Core Insights - Global dealmaking activity is increasing, benefiting major investment banks like Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS), raising the question of which stock has more upside potential [1] Strategic Shifts - Goldman Sachs is focusing on its core strengths in investment banking and trading while reducing its consumer banking presence, including divesting its Polish asset management firm and selling various consumer finance units [2][3] - Morgan Stanley is decreasing its reliance on capital markets for income by expanding its wealth and asset management operations through strategic acquisitions, which has diversified its revenue streams [4] Financial Performance - Both firms faced challenges in 2022 and 2023 due to a slowdown in deal activity, but 2024 showed a recovery with increased investment banking revenues [5] - Goldman Sachs reported investment banking fees of $6.8 billion, a 19% year-over-year increase in the first nine months of 2025, while Morgan Stanley's investment banking fees grew 14% in the same period [6][7] Capital Return Strategies - Both banks passed the Federal Reserve's 2025 stress test, allowing them to return excess capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases [10] - Morgan Stanley raised its quarterly dividend by 8% to $1.00 per share, while Goldman increased its dividend by 33% to $4 per share, with respective annualized growth rates of 20.35% and 21.85% [11] Stock Performance and Valuation - Over the past three months, Goldman shares increased by 7.6%, while Morgan Stanley shares rose by 11.4%, outperforming the Zacks Investment Bank industry, which was up 3% [14] - Goldman has a trailing 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.78X, compared to Morgan Stanley's 16.11X, indicating a valuation advantage for Goldman [15] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Goldman's 2025 and 2026 earnings suggests year-over-year increases of 20.6% and 12.2%, respectively, while Morgan Stanley's estimates imply increases of 22.7% and 5.8% [15][21] Final Analysis - Morgan Stanley is positioned for more attractive upside due to its strategic focus, earnings growth trajectory, and shareholder-friendly practices, while Goldman Sachs is more sensitive to capital market cycles [22][23]

在美联储议息会议前发布的任何经济数据都在引发市场的关注。今日美国发布的周度初请失业金人数下降，表明就业情况并未恶化。虽然机构普遍预期， 美联储12月降息的概率非常大，但也有机构认为，美联储仍有机会暂停降息。 失业数据好于预期 美国劳工部周三公布的数据显示，截至11月22日当周，初请失业金人数经季节调整后减少6000人，至21.6万人。经济学家此前预计，上周初请失业金人数 为22.5万人。 美国初请失业金人数（百万人）、续请失业金人数（百万人）和基准利率走势 初请失业金是美国衡量劳动力市场状况的核心指标，特指统计周期内首次申请失业保险救济金的人数，由美国劳工部每周四定期发布。该指标通过追踪新 失业者申领救济的动态，直接反映企业裁员趋势和就业市场短期波动，被视为经济周期的先行指标。由于本周四是感恩节假期，该报告提前一天发布。 此外，续请失业金人数（衡量正在领取失业金人数的指标）则在前一周微升至196万人。自9月以来，续请失业金人数总体呈上升趋势，目前仍接近疫情后 劳动力市场复苏时期的水平。 （文章来源：证券时报） 德国商业银行报告指出，周三公布的美国周度初请失业金数据因其他劳动力市场数据缺失而获得额外关注。但由于 ...