以往裁员大致分为两类：一类受投资者欢迎，另一类则遭市场冷遇。前者通常伴随某种 " 战略性重组 " 宣布，往往能推动股价上涨；而若裁员是因销售下滑或成本上升所致，投资者便会抛售股票。 但近期，高盛（ Goldman Sachs ）分析师注意到一个新变化。 高盛分析师指出，最直接的原因是投资者不再相信公司的说辞。他们发现，近期宣布裁员的公司 " 今年 在资本支出、债务和利息费用增速上均高于同行业可比公司，而利润增速却更低 " 。这意味着裁员 " 可 能实际上源于更令人担忧的原因，例如为抵消利息成本上升和盈利能力下降而不得不削减开支 " 。 这一动向尤为值得玩味，因为过去几个月来，炫耀裁员规模和 AI 完成工作的比例已成某种风潮，仿佛 是企业首席执行官（尤其是科技行业）展示其全力押注 AI 的 " 实力宣言 " 。 亚马逊（ Amazon ）的安迪 · 贾西（ Andy Jassy ）、塔吉特（ Target ）首席运营官迈克尔 · 菲德尔克（ Michael Fiddelke ，将于二月出任首席执行官）以及摩根大通（ JPMorgan Chase ）首席财务官杰里米 · 巴纳姆（ Jeremy Barnum ）等 ...

Economic Growth Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to experience accelerated growth in 2026, with a forecasted real GDP growth rate of 2.6%, surpassing the Bloomberg consensus of 2% [3][6] - The growth in 2025 was impacted by higher-than-expected tariffs, which increased the average effective tariff rate by 11 percentage points, contributing to a 0.6 percentage point reduction in GDP in the latter half of 2025 [2][6] Factors Driving Growth - Three main factors are anticipated to drive faster economic growth in 2026: reduced tariff drag, tax cuts from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), and more favorable financial conditions due to interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [6][7] - Consumers are projected to receive an additional $100 billion in tax refunds in the first half of 2026, equating to approximately 0.4% of annual disposable income [7] Labor Market Insights - Despite the optimistic growth outlook, the labor market is not expected to see significant improvement, with the unemployment rate projected to stabilize around 4.5% in 2026 [8][10] - The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% in June to 4.6% in November, indicating a cooling labor market amid economic uncertainties [9] Inflation Trends - Inflation is expected to decline, with core PCE inflation projected to fall to just above 2% by the end of 2026, primarily due to diminishing tariff pass-through effects [12][13] - The current core PCE inflation rate is noted at 2.8%, largely influenced by tariff pass-through, which is expected to rise slightly from 0.5 percentage points to 0.8 percentage points by mid-2026 [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have experienced significant fluctuations, with a notable increase of over 70% this year, marking more than 50 new highs, which stands out compared to other assets [3] Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 29, gold futures are priced at $4534.60 per ounce, down $27.20 from the previous day, reflecting a decline of 0.60% [1] - The highest price during the day reached $4581.30 per ounce, while the lowest was $4490.30 per ounce [1] - The closing price from the previous day was $4562.00 per ounce, and the opening price today was $4568.00 per ounce [1] Group 2: Historical Context and Predictions - The current market conditions are compared to historical periods of geopolitical tension and dollar confidence erosion, specifically the years 1971-1974 and 1977-1980, suggesting a potential continuation of the upward trend in gold prices [3] - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold could reach $4900 by the end of 2026, while Deutsche Bank forecasts a price of $5150 by 2027, driven by strong demand [3] - In Q3, global gold purchases reached a record high of 1313 tons, primarily driven by central bank acquisitions, with a notable increase of 220 tons (+10%) by the end of October [3] Group 3: Central Bank Activities - The Polish central bank has been particularly aggressive, adding 12.4 tons in November, bringing its reserves to over 543 tons, exceeding those of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England [3] - Several countries bordering Russia, including Kazakhstan, Turkey, the Czech Republic, and Serbia, are also among the top gold purchasers, while Russia has been selling gold due to ongoing conflicts [3] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The February gold futures are currently in a high-level consolidation pattern, with the daily price supported by the upper Bollinger band and a bullish moving average system [4] - However, the RSI has entered the overbought territory (>70), indicating potential short-term volatility due to profit-taking [4] - Key support levels are identified at the $4500 mark, with resistance concentrated between $4520-4600 [4]

高盛大宗商品策略团队表示黄金将成为2026年整个大宗商品领域的首选投资标的。 高盛进一步指出，如果这一资产多元化配置趋势从央行层面延伸至私人投资者群体，将为金价带来额外的 上行风险。私人投资者与央行在金条等实物黄金领域的竞争，已成为驱动黄金多年牛市的重要动力。 当前黄金ETF在美国私人金融投资组合中的占比仅为0.17%，较2012年的峰值水平低6个基点，存在显著的 提升空间。高盛测算得出，如果美国金融投资组合中的黄金占比每提升1个基点，将推动金价上涨1.4%。 高盛给出了明确的时间线，2026年第一季度，金价可能出现回调，触及每盎司4200美元的低点。进入第二 季度，金价将逐步回升，重新站上每盎司4400美元的水平。第三季度，金价有望突破历史纪录，攀升至每 盎司4630美元附近;到第四季度末，金价将进一步上行至每盎司4900美元的高位。 2025年，大宗商品指数已实现强劲的总回报表现，其中彭博商品指数回报率达到15%。这一成绩的背后， 是工业品类尤其是贵金属板块的亮眼表现，这类品种普遍受益于美联储的降息周期，其涨幅不仅抵消了能 源板块的温和负回报，更带动了指数的整体上行。 2026年，高盛的宏观基准预测框架包 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The global economic outlook in the macro and financial sector is (weakening) [1] Core Viewpoints - The global economy is weakening as the US makes continuous policy mistakes and is past its peak [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Information - Trump ordered an air strike on Nigeria on Christmas Eve, escalating US tensions with the largest economy in West Africa, and the move is related to global energy pattern changes and strategic mineral supply - chain competition [1] - The US economy shows a "K - shaped divide", with large enterprises profiting from the AI wave while small businesses face difficulties due to inflation, tariffs, and consumption downgrade, exacerbating employment and social inequality [1] - Large tech companies are moving over $120 billion in data - center spending off their balance sheets via SPVs, raising concerns about financial risks in AI investment [1] - Mark Strouse from JPMorgan believes that in 2025, investors only need AI exposure, but in 2026, actual deals and order accumulation are required [1] - A new La Nina is forming, the fifth in the past six years, which will disrupt the global weather system and pose risks to agriculture, energy markets, and supply chains [1] - Jim Rickards predicts that factors driving the metal market up will continue next year, with gold possibly reaching $10,000 and silver $200 [1] - The London silver market is experiencing a severe physical squeeze, with the one - year silver swap spread at - 7.18%, showing a shortage of physical silver [1] - Fujitsu will join a project led by SoftBank to develop next - generation memory for AI and supercomputers, aiming to revive Japan's memory production technology [1] Global Economic Logic - Goldman Sachs believes global stocks are in the "optimistic phase" of a bull market, with a 15% total return (including dividends) in 2026 [2] - The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points in December, buys $40 billion in short - term bonds monthly, and its balance sheet is expanding again [2] - Trump wants the next Fed chair to support "substantial rate cuts" [2] - Goldman Sachs warns that the decline in Las Vegas gambling revenue is similar to pre - 2008 financial crisis signals [2] - The US released a new National Security Strategy, adjusting its economic relationship with China and aiming to boost its economic autonomy [2] - The Fed's Beige Book shows a growing K - shaped divide among US consumers [2] - The Bank of Japan raised rates by 25 basis points, and the 10 - year Japanese government bond yield reached 2.0% [2] - Google aims to double AI computing power every six months and achieve a 1000 - fold increase in 4 - 5 years [2] - NVIDIA's Huang Renxun thinks China will win the AI race due to favorable regulations and low energy costs [2] - JPMorgan strategists estimate that AI data - center construction will require at least $5 trillion in the next five years [2] - The US unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, and economists worry about large - scale corporate layoffs as an economic warning [2] - The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine and global contraction will have a profound impact on major asset classes [2]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has seen a significant stock performance increase of 57% this year, outperforming other major banks like Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan, which are up 43% and almost 35% respectively [1][2] - The positive performance of Goldman Sachs is attributed to deregulation under the Trump administration, which has allowed investment banks to benefit from fewer restrictions on mergers and IPOs [1] - The company is noted for its rapid growth, potentially outpacing many tech stocks, while also carrying less risk compared to high-expectation tech investments [2] Group 2 - The financial services provided by Goldman Sachs include investment banking, asset and wealth management, and banking solutions, which have contributed to its strong stock performance [2] - There is a notable increase in IPOs and acquisitions, leading to heightened demand for bank stocks, including Goldman Sachs [2]

Core Thesis - Tom Lee believes that if big technology stocks continue to support risk markets and the Federal Reserve becomes more accommodating, both equities and cryptocurrencies could experience significant growth by 2026 [1]. Digital Assets and Blockchain - Lee views the recent decline in digital assets as a temporary liquidity shock rather than a sign of a broken market, linking his optimism to Wall Street's increasing adoption of blockchain for payments, assets, and settlements, which he believes is particularly favorable for Ethereum [1][2]. - He argues that tokenization and on-chain settlement will give Ethereum a structural role in the future of finance, reinforcing his bullish stance on the cryptocurrency [3]. Investment Recommendations - For 2026, Lee's top stock picks include Nvidia, AMD, Meta, Goldman Sachs, and Arista Networks, while he identifies CrowdStrike, Costco, Palo Alto Networks, Tesla, and Willis Towers Watson as less timely investments, though not outright sells [5]. - He anticipates that a broader mix of sectors, including financials, industrials, energy, and basic materials, could also perform well [6]. Market Dynamics - Lee emphasizes that digital assets should be viewed as part of the same liquidity cycle that influences equities, suggesting a close relationship between the two markets [7].

上述"调研清单"清晰地勾勒出当前外资在A股市场的关注焦点，即以AI为代表的科技和医药两大赛道。 高盛在近日发布的报告中表示，DeepSeek-R1的发布在2025年引发了中国科技公司的强劲反弹。从基本 面来看，高盛估计，未来十年，通过节约成本、提高生产率和创造新的收入机会，AI的广泛应用有望 推动企业盈利每年增长3%。 2025年以来，近800家外资机构合计调研A股上市公司近万次。其中，Point 72资产管理公司以263次调 研位居榜首；高盛、美银证券等国际大行的调研次数也均超过百次。从调研方向来看，科技和医药是外 资机构最为关注的两大赛道。 年内外资调研A股近万次 数据显示，截至12月26日，今年以来共有798家外资机构现身A股上市公司调研名单，合计调研9308 次。 具体来看，被称为"华尔街最疯狂赚钱机器"的Point 72资产管理公司今年以来调研A股上市公司263次， 排名首位。在2023和2024年，Point 72资产管理公司全年分别调研A股上市公司255次、259次，均为当 年外资调研榜第一位，堪称"A股调研劳模"。此外，高盛、美银证券、花旗环球等机构今年以来的调研 次数均超过100次。 从调研 ...

Group 1 - Nearly 800 foreign institutions have conducted approximately 9,308 research visits to A-share listed companies since 2025, with Point 72 Asset Management leading with 263 visits [1][2] - Major international banks such as Goldman Sachs and Bank of America have also conducted over 100 research visits this year [2][3] - The primary focus of foreign institutions is on the technology and pharmaceutical sectors, indicating strong interest in these areas [3][5] Group 2 - The top three companies receiving the most foreign institution research visits are Huichuan Technology (733 visits), Mindray Medical (404 visits), and Optoelectronics (331 visits) [3][4] - The technology sector, particularly AI, is expected to drive significant growth in corporate profits, with an estimated annual increase of 3% over the next decade due to cost savings and productivity improvements [5] - The pharmaceutical sector in China is gaining international recognition, with local innovative drug companies entering the global first tier in terms of research pipeline quantity [6]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs informed investors in its alternative investment funds about a potential data breach linked to Fried Frank Harris Schriver & Jacobson LLP, indicating that some client data may have been exposed [2] - The law firm has assured that its network is now secure and the vulnerability has been addressed, stating that any exposed data is "unlikely to be distributed or used improperly" [2] - Goldman Sachs confirmed that its own systems were not affected by the incident and emphasized its commitment to safeguarding client data [2] Group 2 - Cyberattacks targeting third-party vendors are increasingly common, with a report indicating that 38% of invoice fraud cases and 43% of phishing attacks originate from compromised vendors [3] - Verizon's report highlighted that 30% of data breaches in the year ending October 31, 2024, involved third parties, a significant increase from 15% the previous year [4] - The report emphasized the importance of considering the security limitations of third parties when managing data [5]