Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for MINISO [4][6] Core Views - MINISO's domestic same-store sales are showing improvement, with a net decrease of 111 stores in Q1 2025, but a year-on-year increase of 241 stores, leading to a revenue of 24.94 billion yuan, up 9.1% year-on-year [1] - The overseas market remains a focus, with a total of 3,213 stores as of Q1 2025, an increase of 617 stores year-on-year, and overseas revenue reaching 15.92 billion yuan, up 30.3% year-on-year [2] - The gross margin improved by 0.8 percentage points to 44.2% in Q1 2025, driven by a higher proportion of overseas revenue and a shift towards higher-margin products [3] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 210.1 billion yuan in 2025, with net profit projected at 29.5 billion yuan, reflecting a growth trajectory despite current challenges [4] Summary by Sections Domestic Performance - In Q1 2025, MINISO's domestic revenue was 24.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, with same-store sales decline narrowing to low single digits [1] Overseas Expansion - The overseas store count reached 3,213, with a year-on-year increase of 617 stores, and average store revenue grew by 4.6% year-on-year [2] Financial Metrics - Q1 2025 adjusted net profit was 5.87 billion yuan, down 4.81% year-on-year, with gross margin at 44.2% [3] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 210.1 billion yuan, 246.1 billion yuan, and 280.4 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 29.5 billion yuan, 36.5 billion yuan, and 43.3 billion yuan [4][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company is expected to experience a gradual alleviation of performance pressure, with same-store sales showing signs of improvement. The focus is on high-quality development and strategic store network optimization [12][13] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 20.54 billion, 24.60 billion, and 29.55 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 20.9%, 19.7%, and 20.2%. Adjusted net profits are projected at 2.86 billion, 3.68 billion, and 4.56 billion yuan, with growth rates of 4.97%, 28.74%, and 24.04% respectively [4][15] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, with a gross margin of 44.2%, up 0.8 percentage points. Adjusted net profit was 590 million yuan, down 4.8% year-on-year [12] - The company’s domestic same-store sales have shown significant improvement, with a notable reduction in the decline rate compared to previous quarters. The total number of stores reached 4,275, with a net closure of 111 stores [13] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20% over the next three years, with adjusted net profit margins expected to stabilize and improve [15][16] - The adjusted net profit corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are forecasted to be 14X, 11X, and 9X for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][15] Market Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its supply chain advantages and IP transformation capabilities while continuing its global expansion strategy [15] - The overseas business saw revenue of 1.59 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 30.3%, despite facing high base pressure from the previous year [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Miniso (MNSO) with a 12-month target price of $23.40 for ADR and HK$46.00 for H-shares, reflecting a potential upside of 27.9% and 33.1% respectively [15][17]. Core Insights - Management reiterated its target for accelerated revenue growth in 2025, aiming for a year-on-year increase of 23% compared to 2024, with a focus on achieving low teens percentage growth in Miniso China sales and approximately 40% growth in overseas business [1][5]. - Despite expected slight declines in gross profit margins this year, management anticipates healthy operating profit growth for the year, with margins expected to narrow sequentially in Q2 and return to positive territory in Q3 [1][5]. - The company plans to close 300-400 underperforming or outdated stores in China, with expectations of stabilizing or slightly decreasing the number of new stores in the second quarter, but anticipates a return to store growth in the latter half of the year [1][11]. Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - Management expects revenue growth to accelerate in 2025, driven by positive sales and store productivity improvements, with a target of opening 500 to 600 new stores, of which 40% to 45% will be DTC stores [5][16]. - For Top Toy, management anticipates a year-on-year revenue growth of approximately 50% to 60% and plans to add 100 new stores [5]. Profit Margins - Operating profit is projected to recover to positive growth in Q3, with a target operating profit of RMB 3.6 billion to RMB 3.8 billion for the year, compared to RMB 3.2 billion last year [5][16]. - Management noted that while the operating profit margin may experience slight declines due to macroeconomic factors and DTC expansion, the pressure on margins is expected to gradually narrow [1][5][7]. Store Network and Strategy - The company is focusing on optimizing its store network, with plans to close underperforming stores while aiming for a net increase in store count in the latter half of the year [1][11]. - In the U.S. market, Miniso will concentrate on 24 states to achieve better economies of scale and reduce operational costs, while also optimizing its product mix to cater to local consumers [6][10]. Product Mix and Market Adaptation - The product mix includes a focus on toys and lifestyle products, with a strategy to increase local sourcing to mitigate potential tariff risks [10][12]. - Management aims to enhance the contribution of third-party products to diversify the product range while maintaining overall gross margin stability [12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 was 4.43 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 18.9%. The gross margin was 44.2%, up 0.8 percentage points year-over-year. Operating profit was 710 million, down 4.05% year-over-year, while adjusted net profit was 590 million, down 4.9% year-over-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 13.3%, down 3.3 percentage points year-over-year [5] - The company expects revenues of 20.54 billion, 24.43 billion, and 28.28 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 21%, 19%, and 16%. Adjusted net profits are projected to be 2.76 billion, 3.35 billion, and 4.06 billion for the same years, with year-over-year growth rates of 1%, 21%, and 21% [6] - Domestic business is shifting from rapid store expansion to a focus on high-quality growth, with same-store sales expected to improve. In Q1 2025, domestic revenue was 2.5 billion, up 9.1% year-over-year, with same-store sales showing improvement from a previous decline [9] - The overseas business is experiencing rapid growth, with Q1 2025 overseas revenue at 1.6 billion, up 30.3% year-over-year, accounting for 36% of total revenue. The number of overseas stores reached 3,213, with a net increase of 95 stores [9] Financial Summary - For 2024A, the company reported total revenue of 16.99 billion, with a year-over-year growth rate of 23%. Adjusted net profit was 2.72 billion, with a year-over-year growth rate of 15% [8] - The company’s financial ratios indicate a return on equity (ROE) of 26.3% for 2024A, with a projected decline to 17.8% in 2025E [11]

FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： 名創優品集團控股有限公司 呈交日期： 2025年5月28日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 是 | | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 09896 | 說明 | | | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變動 | | 庫存股份變動 | | | | | | 事件 | 已發行股份（不 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.43 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 18.9%. The gross margin was 44.2%, up by 0.8 percentage points. Operating profit was 710 million yuan, down 4.05% year-over-year, while adjusted net profit was 590 million yuan, down 4.9% year-over-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 13.3%, down 3.3 percentage points [5] - The company expects revenues of 20.54 billion, 24.43 billion, and 28.28 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 21%, 19%, and 16%. Adjusted net profits are projected to be 2.76 billion, 3.35 billion, and 4.06 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 1%, 21%, and 21% respectively [6] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, domestic revenue was 2.5 billion yuan, up 9.1% year-over-year, with same-store sales improving from a high single-digit decline to a mid-single-digit decline. The company is shifting from rapid store expansion to a focus on high-quality growth, resulting in a net reduction of 111 stores [9] - Overseas revenue reached 1.6 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-over-year increase of 30.3%, accounting for 36% of total revenue. The number of overseas stores increased to 3,213, with a net addition of 95 stores [9] - The company anticipates that as overseas operations become more refined, the net profit margin per store will have room for improvement despite initial pressure from upfront costs associated with rapid expansion [9] Financial Projections - The company forecasts total revenues of 16.99 billion, 20.54 billion, 24.43 billion, and 28.28 billion yuan for the years 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively, with corresponding year-over-year growth rates of 23%, 21%, 19%, and 16% [10] - Adjusted net profit is projected to be 2.72 billion, 2.76 billion, 3.35 billion, and 4.06 billion yuan for the same years, with adjusted net profit margins of 16%, 13%, 14%, and 14% respectively [11]

Group 1 - The forum focused on the theme "Multi-party Cooperation to Ensure Cultural Trade Sets Sail" and featured discussions on policies to promote high-quality development in cultural trade [1] - Key officials from various government departments shared the latest policy measures aimed at enhancing cultural trade, highlighting Shenzhen's innovative experiences in digital cultural trade [1] - Industry leaders discussed the role of digital technology in driving product innovation, business model innovation, and operational innovation within cultural trade [1] Group 2 - Experts explored how digital technology can revitalize traditional culture and enhance the global competitiveness of Chinese intellectual property (IP) [2] - The forum included discussions on brand building and operational services, with insights on how Chinese brands can break through on the global stage [2]

Core Viewpoint - Miniso's high gross profit margin is showing signs of strain as the company faces challenges in maintaining profitability despite revenue growth [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In Q1, Miniso reported revenue of 4.427 billion yuan, an 18.9% year-on-year increase, but net profit fell by 4.8% to 587 million yuan, leading to a net profit margin decline of 3.3 percentage points to 13.3% [2] - The company's revenue has grown 1.5 times over the past two years, with 2,200 new stores opened, and overseas store growth consistently outpacing domestic growth [9] Market Position and Strategy - Miniso's optimistic outlook on same-store sales contrasts with market skepticism, as the company aims for a revenue growth acceleration in the latter half of the year [4] - The company is transitioning from a low-cost brand to a "global IP co-branded store," which has raised expectations for international expansion [7][8] Operational Challenges - The increase in revenue without corresponding profit growth is seen as a potential warning sign, with significant investments in IP licensing and a shift in business strategy [5][6] - The company has adopted a three-pronged store opening strategy: partner model, direct operation model, and agency model in overseas markets [10] International Expansion - Miniso's overseas direct stores have increased to 548, more than doubling in two years, with a focus on the North American market [11] - However, the rapid expansion of overseas direct stores has led to increased upfront costs, impacting short-term profitability [12] Domestic Market Dynamics - The domestic market is showing signs of saturation, particularly in first- and second-tier cities, with a projected store penetration rate of 66% [15] - Same-store sales growth is declining, with a shift from a 30-35% growth rate in 2023 to an expected 8-9% decline in 2024 [16] IP Strategy and Risks - Miniso's reliance on IP products has increased, with IP product sales contributing significantly to revenue, but the associated costs are rising [23][26] - The company faces challenges in balancing the cost of IP licensing with consumer price sensitivity, especially in a competitive market [25][27] Capital Management - Financial costs have nearly doubled year-on-year, with the company issuing $550 million in convertible bonds and facing increased debt levels [32][42] - Miniso's acquisition of Yonghui Superstores has raised questions about its impact on profitability, despite the stock price increase since the acquisition [40][41] Future Outlook - The potential IPO of TOP TOY could alleviate some financial pressures on Miniso while expanding its market presence [43][46] - The company aims to maintain double-digit growth in the domestic market, focusing on same-store sales rather than aggressive new store openings [17][19]

FF305 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 是 | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 09896 | 說明 | | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變動 | | | 庫存股份變動 | | | | | 事件 | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數 目 | 佔有關事件前的現有已發 行股份（不包括庫存股 份）數目百分比 (註3) | | 庫存股份數目 | 每股發行/出售價 (註4) | 已發行股份總數 | | 於下列日期開始時的結存(註1) | 2025年5月26 ...

Group 1 - Miniso (MNSO.N) stock fell over 2% in pre-market trading following earnings report [1] - Multiple major investment banks have downgraded earnings forecasts for the company [1]