证券研究报告 商贸零售 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 10 日 证券分析师 丁一 SAC：S1350524040003 dingyi@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 四部门鼓励每年最多开展四次春秋游，支持发放文旅消费券、 电影券；毛戈平与 LVMH 旗下基金达成战略合作 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——新消费行业周报（2026.1.5-2026.1.9） 投资要点： 风险提示：零售环境修复不及预期风险；国际局势变动风险；市场竞争加剧风险。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 近日全国总工会、文化和旅游部、国家电影局、国家体育总局联合印发《关于深入推进新时 代职工文体工作高质量发展 扩大职工文体消费的意见》，旨在系统推进职工文体工作，释放 消费潜力，满足广大职工日益增长的精神文化需求。《意见》的重点内容涵盖：1）创新职工 文体活动场景：拓展夜间、户外、社交、亲子等新型职工文体活动，鼓励利用商圈、工业遗 址、公园绿地、红色教育基地、电影放映场所等特色空间，开展沉浸式、互动式文化体验活 动；2）优化职工文体消费环境：鼓励提高工会经费中职工文体活动支出比例 ...

18 6600 3 魏凤春 深圳商报记者 陈燕青 2026年，市场定价从"预期透支"回归"盈利兑现"。产业选择的核心标尺从"赛道故事"转向"盈利验证"，业绩 确定性成为估值锚定的核心依据。 在投资机会方面，一是新质生产力赛道（电子、高端装备），二是中游制造及上游资源品。 2025年，A股整体呈现震荡上涨态势：沪指上涨近两成，一度冲上4000点；科技成长股领涨，创业板指大涨 五成。进入2026年，A股会否延续反弹？市场风格又将如何演绎？近日，创金合信基金首席经济学家魏凤春 在接受深圳商报记者采访时表示，2026年A股有望延续此前的上涨态势，但市场的驱动逻辑切换为盈利主 导，看好新质生产力赛道和中游制造。 2026年A股有望延续上涨态势 2025年，A股整体呈现科技股领涨的成长风格。从大的板块来看，科创50、创业板指数全年分别大涨近四成 和约五成，明显超过上证50、沪深300等蓝筹股指数。 创金合信基金首席经济学家魏凤春认为，过去一年市场的结构性分化，核心源于资产定价逻辑的三重维度演 进。首先，2025年呈现向科技成长端集中的结构性倾斜，本质是新质生产力引领的主导产业更替进入质变 期，AI+赋能与科技自立自强形成 ...

深圳商报·读创客户端记者 陈燕青 2025年，A股整体呈现科技股领涨的成长风格。从大的板块来看，科创50、创业板指数全年分别大涨近四成和约五成，明显超过上证50、沪深300等蓝筹股 指数。市场之所以呈现出科技成长领涨，消费、周期蓝筹表现偏弱，主要有哪些原因？ 对此，创金合信基金首席经济学家魏凤春认为，过去一年市场的结构性分化，核心源于资产定价逻辑的三重维度演进。首先，2025年呈现向科技成长端集中 的结构性倾斜，本质是新质生产力引领的主导产业更替进入质变期，AI+赋能与科技自立自强形成的产业红利链条，使科技成长赛道的长期确定性显著提 升。其次，市场对科技创新产业逻辑的共识性叙事逐步凝聚，叠加相关ETF的规模化发展，加速了资金向高成长领域集聚，强化了结构分化态势。最后，政 策引导与产业周期共振推动风险溢价下行，且更多向具备研发壁垒与成长潜力的科技成长领域倾斜，而消费、周期蓝筹受盈利修复滞后与需求复苏乏力影 响，风险溢价优势弱化。 进入2026年，A股又将如何运行？市场风格是否会发生变化？ "2026年A股有望延续上涨态势，但驱动逻辑切换为盈利主导的稳健上行，" 魏凤春坦言，"市场定价从'预期透支'回归'盈利兑现 ...

6660 3 魏凤春 | 2025年涨幅前十名Ａ股 | | | | | 2025年跌幅前十名Ａ股 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 障易 证券代码 证券商家 区间深表幅% | | | 库员 证券代码 证券简称 区间深跌爆采 | | 库易 证券代码 证券商家 区间预测网站 库号 证券代码 证券商家 区间预测网> | | | | | | 6885853H L 20069 | 18202806 | | 301232 22 1332106 | 681 6880 | 820680 BT 25162200 6 | 广理器 | -94.1813 | "ST BST | -747222 | | 605255 SH 天 486 16453488 | | | 03338 2H 1111 WAY | 6666 8868 | 300379.5Z 300661.52 | 用意的很 | -91.7829 | STHER | -73.1772 | | 00228922 21 2153650 | | | 30137752 用电商 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 Global Cultural IP Industry Development Conference will be held in Shanghai on December 26-27, 2025, focusing on the theme "IP Without Boundaries: Intelligent Creation of the Future - Global Exploration of Cultural IP and Technology Integration" [1][7] - The "2025 Cultural IP Industry Development Report" indicates that cultural IP has evolved from a single content form to a crucial carrier connecting cultural creation, technological application, and industrial upgrading, becoming a core engine for high-quality development in the cultural industry [3][9] Industry Overview - The report highlights that the Chinese cultural IP industry is experiencing continuous expansion, structural optimization, and significant enhancement in original capabilities, with original IP from online literature, film, and games forming a complete industrial chain covering content production, copyright operation, and commercial transformation [3][9] - The value of cultural IP is no longer limited to single works or markets but is amplified and extended through long-term operations [3][9] Key Areas of Development - The report analyzes various development paths for cultural IP, including cultural tourism IP, gaming IP, film IP, trendy toys IP, and short video and account IP, indicating that cultural IP is increasingly integrated into cultural tourism consumption, digital entertainment, and daily life scenarios [4][10] - Cultural IP is transitioning from "content dissemination" to "lifestyle shaping," promoting traditional culture, intangible cultural heritage, and regional culture in a more youthful, digital, and immersive manner [5][10] Technological Impact - New technologies are profoundly reshaping the production and operation of cultural IP, with advancements in artificial intelligence enhancing content creation and dissemination efficiency, blockchain applications in copyright confirmation and protection, and immersive technologies upgrading user experiences [5][10] - This shift is moving cultural IP from a "creation-driven" model to a "technology and content co-driven" model, improving industry efficiency and providing essential support for the long-term operation and standardized development of IP [5][10] Global Perspective - The international influence of Chinese cultural IP is steadily increasing, transitioning from single product exports to multi-form, localized international dissemination paths [5][10] - A number of culturally distinctive Chinese IPs are entering international markets through literature, gaming, film, and derivatives, enhancing cultural exchange from "going out" to "being understood and recognized" [5][10] Future Development Focus - The report emphasizes that future development in the cultural IP industry will place greater importance on the quality of original content, copyright governance, deep technological empowerment, and collaborative industrial ecosystems [11][12] - Cultural IP is recognized not only as a vital industrial resource but also as a representation of cultural value, innovation capability, and national soft power [11][12]

| 全球品牌中国线上500强 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年第三季度(前50名) | | | | | | | | | | | 北京大学国家发展研究院编制 淘天集团技术支持 | | | | | | | | | | | ▼ 综合评分由12项指标得分加权平均得出详见《中国消费品牌指数第三期(2025年3季度)》 | | | | | | | | | | | 3C数码 2 3C数码 3 家用电器 4 3C数码 5 家用电器 6 | | | | | | | 3C数码 7 运动户外与服饰 8 家装家具 9 运动户外与服饰 10 3C数码 | | | | 的电影 | 小米 | 美的 | 华为 | 海尔 | 联想 | 耐克 | 源氏木语 | 李宁 | 大疆 | | Apple | Xiaomi | Midea | HUAWEI | Haier | Lenovo | NIKE | YESWOOD | LI-NING | DI | | 100 | 92.35 | 91.81 | 91. ...

Group 1 - The potential for national income doubling is expected to open a "golden decade" for new consumption development, with a theoretical target of nearly doubling per capita GDP by 2035, from $13,300 in 2024 to approximately $20,000 [16][17][33] - The growth of the middle-income group is crucial for driving consumption, with a target of over 800 million middle-income individuals in the next 15 years, which will significantly influence the scale and quality of domestic consumption [42][49] - The report emphasizes the importance of promoting common prosperity to activate domestic consumption potential, highlighting that increasing the income of low-income groups can effectively convert new income into consumption [20][23][49] Group 2 - The beauty and personal care sector is expected to see growth driven by new materials in the medical beauty segment, with companies like Lepu Medical focusing on innovative materials that fill market gaps [4][5][15] - The beauty industry is entering a low-growth phase, where brand group operations and market share enhancement will be critical for sustainable growth, with companies like Mao Ge Ping and Shangmei Holdings being highlighted for their potential [4][5][15] - The pet care market is experiencing both consumption upgrades and intensified competition, with a focus on high-end, health-oriented products [4][5][15] Group 3 - The service consumption sector, particularly tourism and sports, is expected to benefit from policy encouragement, with companies like Sanxia Tourism and Lansi Co. being recommended for investment [4][5][15] - The report notes that the tourism sector is poised for growth due to increased interest in flexible vacations and the aging population, which is expected to drive demand for river cruises [4][5][15] - The sports service sector is highlighted as a core growth area, with event-driven economic activities expected to boost related industries [4][5][15] Group 4 - The IP and trendy toy market is entering a new phase with a surge in supply, and companies like Pop Mart are expected to maintain their leading positions through effective IP management [4][5][15] - The report indicates that the emergence of new designers and retail platforms is likely to sustain high demand for IP products, with a focus on companies that can effectively monetize potential IP [4][5][15] Group 5 - The gold and jewelry sector is facing short-term demand pressure due to tax reforms and seasonal fluctuations, with a focus on brands that can maintain pricing power amid these changes [5][15]

Group 1 - A-shares opened slightly higher with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.04%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.02%, and ChiNext Index up 0.01% [1] - Sectors such as robotics and non-ferrous metals showed strong performance [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities highlighted strong investment enthusiasm in energy storage, with planned investment projects in Inner Mongolia expected to double compared to this year [2] - The demand for energy storage is expected to continue growing due to high load growth and the ongoing development of renewable energy [2] - Battery materials, including cathodes, anodes, electrolytes, and separators, are anticipated to see sustained price increases, with a positive outlook for battery and integration segments [2] Group 3 - Tianfeng Securities noted strong bottom-line support for the cement industry, with over 85% of clinker lines in northern provinces currently offline due to winter production restrictions [3] - The cement industry is expected to see a significant reduction in production capacity, with a total of 5,250 million tons of new capacity being added and 8,359 million tons of capacity being exited by November [3] - The effects of production capacity governance in the cement sector are expected to become evident by 2026 [3] Group 4 - Huatai Securities projected a steady recovery in domestic demand, driven by ongoing consumption policies and structural growth opportunities in the consumer sector [4] - The report emphasized four key investment themes for 2026: the rise of domestic brands, technology-driven consumption, emotional consumption, and undervalued high-dividend blue-chip leaders [4] - New consumer segments such as trendy toys, beauty and personal care, and ready-to-drink beverages are expected to emerge as strong growth areas [4]

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations yesterday, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges recording a trading volume of 1.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 76.5 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - By the end of the trading session, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.51%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.78%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.12% [1] Investment Insights Storage Demand and Battery Materials - CITIC Securities highlighted that the investment enthusiasm for energy storage is extremely high, with planned investment projects in Inner Mongolia doubling compared to this year [2] - The demand for energy storage is expected to continue growing due to high load growth and the ongoing development of renewable energy [2] - Battery materials, including positive and negative electrodes, electrolytes, and separators, are anticipated to see sustained price increases, with a positive outlook for the battery and integration sectors [2] Cement Industry Outlook - Tianfeng Securities noted that most provinces in northern China have begun staggered production during the heating season, with over 85% of clinker lines currently offline [3] - The short-term profitability support for the cement industry remains strong, with plans for production halts in December, particularly in the Yangtze River Delta region [3] - By 2025, leading companies are expected to address overproduction capacity, with a total of 52.5 million tons of new capacity planned and 83.59 million tons of capacity to be exited [3] Consumer Market Trends - Huatai Securities projected that consumer demand is likely to continue its steady recovery into 2026, driven by ongoing consumption policies [4] - The report emphasized the emergence of new consumption sectors, including trendy toys, beauty products, and ready-to-drink beverages, which are expected to produce leading companies [4] - Four key investment themes were identified: the rise of domestic brands, technology-driven consumption, emotional consumption, and undervalued high-dividend blue-chip stocks [4]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley has lowered the target price for Pop Mart's stock from HKD 382 to HKD 325, representing a decrease of approximately 15% due to unfavorable trends in the global consumer sector [1] - The expected price-to-earnings ratio for Pop Mart in 2026 has dropped to 16 times, presenting an attractive entry point for investors interested in a company with high net asset returns and a focus on adult-oriented novelty products [1] - Despite short-term market disagreements regarding Pop Mart, its IP operational capabilities and high return on equity (ROE) characteristics still hold long-term investment value [1] Group 2 - Pop Mart's revenue for the first three quarters of this year has increased by 30% year-on-year, with overseas revenue accounting for 20% of total revenue [1] - The management anticipates that the number of overseas stores will exceed 100 by the end of the year [1]