核心结论 分析师 2025 年 08 月 22 日 晨会纪要 证券研究报告 【交通运输】中通快递-W（02057.HK）2025Q2 及 2025H1 业绩点评：盈 利能力承压，2025Q2 市占率环比提升 1、盈利能力承压，单票净利（经调）同比下降。2、营业成本（尤其是其他 成本）的增加是毛利率下降的主要原因。3、2025Q2 市占率环比提升，下 调 2025 年包裹量增速指引。4、预计 2025 年资本开支基本持平或微降。5、 中期股息每股 0.3 美元，派息比率为 40%。6、尽管公司下调全年包裹量指 引带来盈利预测有所修正，考虑到"反内卷"政策环境下电商快递行业整体 估值水平有望抬升，上调至"买入"评级。 【医药生物】远大医药（0512.HK）2025 年中报业绩点评：核药产品持续 高增速，创新品种收入占比提升 盈利预测与评级：预计 2025-2027 年公司营收分别为 122.54/133.76/147.79 亿港元，同比增长 5.2%/9.2%/10.5%；归母净利润分别为 21.85/24.62/27.06 亿港元，同比增长-11.5%/12.7%/9.9%。维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：药品及 ...

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities expresses strong confidence in Pop Mart (09992.HK) as a one-stop platform for trendy toy IP, highlighting its growth potential through category expansion and IP development [1] Group 1: Business Growth - The company is expanding into innovative businesses such as theme parks, accessories, and desserts, which are showing promising growth [1] - The layout of content in areas like film and animation is expected to enhance the global influence of the company's IP [1] Group 2: Financial Projections - The adjusted net profit forecasts for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 are maintained at 10.2 billion, 15.2 billion, and 19.7 billion respectively [1] - The investment rating remains at "buy" [1]

Macro Strategy - The report anticipates a decline in loan demand for July and stable growth in social financing [1] - The geopolitical situation and rising interest rate expectations have boosted market sentiment, leading to an increase in US stock prices [1] - The 10-year US Treasury yield rose by 6.7 basis points to 4.283% due to weak auction results reflecting soft market demand [1] Fixed Income Analysis - The report highlights the investment value of non-ETF component bonds in the Sci-Tech bond market, suggesting a shift towards these bonds due to their higher yield and credit spread compared to ETF components [2] - It notes that 14.79% of the non-ETF component bonds have a credit spread exceeding 40 basis points, indicating potential for yield compression [2] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to have a longer-lasting impact compared to previous supply-side reforms, with a focus on high-quality development rather than large-scale demand-side stimulus [3][4] Company-Specific Insights - Guodian Measurement (002967) is recommended for its AI chip localization and high-end PCB expansion, with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 set at 4.0/4.5/5.2 billion [9] - Aisheng Co., Ltd. (600732) has shown a significant increase in shipments and profitability, with revised profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 3.8/15.6/24.9 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 107%/307%/60% [10] - Yanjing Beer (000729) continues to perform well with a focus on its U8 product line, with profit forecasts adjusted to 16.03/19.26/22.74 billion for 2025-2027 [11] - Gole Technology (002241) is expanding its AR capabilities through investment in Micro-LED technology, with profit forecasts adjusted to 34/44 billion for 2025-2026 [13] - Pop Mart (09992.HK) is expected to see rapid revenue growth driven by its IP strategy, with profit forecasts raised to 100.3/144.9/182.9 billion for 2025-2027 [14]

Core Insights - The first "Longgang Good Products Cross-border Export Selection and Linkage Conference" was successfully held in Longgang District, Shenzhen, focusing on selecting quality products for cross-border e-commerce and facilitating efficient communication among over a hundred representatives from supply chain management, e-commerce platforms, manufacturing leaders, and financial service institutions [1][5] Group 1: Event Overview - The event showcased a variety of products from Longgang, including smart wearables, trendy IPs, and intangible cultural heritage handmade items, highlighting the region's manufacturing capabilities [3] - The "Overseas Display Base" was officially inaugurated, covering an area of 2,000 square meters, marking a new phase in providing one-stop services for enterprises looking to expand internationally [5] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The Longgang District has implemented a three-year action plan (2025-2027) aimed at creating a service cultivation area for enterprises going abroad, focusing on building a comprehensive service ecosystem and attracting quality cross-border e-commerce platforms and service providers [9] - The establishment of the "Longgang Good Products Promotion Officer Alliance" signifies a new level of resource integration, incorporating new employment groups like couriers and live streamers into the brand promotion system [7] Group 3: Future Plans - The Longgang District plans to deepen platform construction, expand service scenarios, and improve the cross-border service system, aiming to support local enterprises in entering international markets and promoting high-quality economic development [9]

Core Insights - The 27th Shanghai International Film Festival showcased the integration of technology and emotional resonance in the film industry, indicating a shift towards companies that can merge innovation with consumer sentiment [1][2] - The festival highlighted the emergence of virtual reality (VR) films, with 10 projects already initiated, suggesting a new frontier for the Chinese film industry [1][2] - The economic impact of the festival was significant, generating approximately 4.997 billion yuan across various sectors, including transportation, accommodation, and retail [3] Virtual Reality Film Development - The launch of VR films at the festival, including major titles set for release in the summer of 2025, indicates a growing market potential estimated in the trillions [2] - The VR film sector is expected to expand the audience base and increase box office revenues, benefiting production and distribution companies [2] Economic Impact of the Film Festival - The festival's activities led to an estimated economic benefit of 4.997 billion yuan, with specific contributions from dining (1.213 billion yuan), accommodation (299 million yuan), and shopping (2.740 billion yuan) [3] - Approximately 29.2% of attendees traveled specifically to Shanghai for the festival, contributing to a tourism revenue of about 1.774 billion yuan [3] New Consumption Trends - The festival illustrated a shift from traditional viewing experiences to more immersive and interactive consumer engagements, such as themed tours and merchandise sales [4] - The rise of "emotional consumption" among younger consumers is driving demand for IP-related products, with significant market gains reported by companies like Lehua Entertainment [5] Emotional Consumption Dynamics - The concept of "emotional consumption" reflects a new consumer behavior where purchases are driven by emotional connections rather than functional needs [5] - This trend is expected to create opportunities for companies that can resonate with the emotional and identity needs of consumers, leading to the emergence of representative firms in the market [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise of new consumption trends focusing on emotional value and self-satisfaction, highlighting the strong performance of related stocks and the emergence of multiple tenfold stocks in the market [1][3]. New Consumption Trends - New consumption is characterized by a shift from traditional needs to emotional and personalized experiences, with a focus on "self-satisfaction" rather than just material consumption [3][4]. - The new consumption sector includes emotional and spiritual consumption such as trendy toys, cultural tourism, IP, pets, and medical beauty, as well as a focus on high cost-performance ratio [3][4]. Market Performance - As of May 26, the new consumption index (995013) has seen a cumulative increase of 15.79% this year, outperforming the traditional consumption index (801273) [1]. - Recent strong performance in the new consumption sector includes beauty products, snacks, IP trendy toys, and the pet economy, which have attracted significant market attention [6]. Investment Opportunities - The new consumption sector is seen as having clear growth logic and strong performance, attracting both traditional and new funds [7]. - The current market environment, including government policies aimed at stimulating consumption, is expected to support the growth of new consumption companies [7][8]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that while the new consumption narrative is gaining traction, there may be risks of market volatility and potential bubbles in some newly listed companies [8]. - Investment strategies should balance traditional and new consumption opportunities, focusing on structural changes and consumer behavior shifts [10][11]. Key Focus Areas - Future investment in new consumption should target emotional consumption, cost-performance, and international expansion, with a focus on identifying quality companies in these segments [10][11]. - The article emphasizes the importance of adapting to generational changes in consumer preferences and the potential for new brands to emerge in the market [11].

Core Viewpoint - The new consumption sector is gaining traction in the capital market, driven by trends such as emotional value and self-consumption, leading to significant stock performance and the emergence of multiple tenfold stocks [1][5]. New Consumption Trends - New consumption is characterized by supply-driven demand, focusing on opportunities that emerge from economic development and changing consumer preferences, particularly in emotional and quality-price ratio consumption [3][6]. - The rise of new consumption is attributed to younger consumers, particularly Generation Z, who prioritize individual experiences and quality over mere affordability [6][10]. Market Performance - The new consumption sector has shown strong performance, with notable stocks like Pop Mart reaching new highs and others like Old Puhuang and Mixue Ice City experiencing significant gains after their Hong Kong listings [5][8]. - The current market interest in new consumption is fueled by strong fundamentals and rapid earnings growth of related companies, attracting both traditional and new capital [9]. Investment Strategies - Investment in the consumption sector requires a balanced approach, focusing on both traditional and emerging consumption opportunities, with an emphasis on identifying alpha opportunities in niche markets [11][12]. - A "barbell strategy" is recommended, targeting high-growth areas in emotional and spiritual consumption while also securing stable cash flow from essential consumer goods [12][13]. Future Outlook - The new consumption sector is expected to continue benefiting from policy support, consumption upgrades, and technological innovations, with a potential for valuation recovery as the macroeconomic environment stabilizes [9][10]. - There is a recognition that while emotional and self-consumption trends will persist, their forms will evolve with generational changes, necessitating ongoing exploration and adaptation [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the growing significance of "潮玩" (trendy toys) in the market, particularly among adults seeking emotional connections and nostalgia, driven by increased consumer spending, the rise of Generation Z, and cultural consumption upgrades [1][2]. Group 1: Overview of Trendy Toy IP Economy - The report aims to analyze the economic value and development potential of trendy toy IPs by examining the industry's evolution, value chain, and consumer preferences [3]. - It provides a comprehensive view of the current state and trends of the trendy toy IP economy, including market environment, participants, business models, and future opportunities and challenges [4]. Group 2: Case Studies of Trendy Toy IP - The report highlights successful case studies of trendy toy IPs, focusing on key factors such as business layout, storytelling, innovative business models, and fan economy construction [5]. Group 3: Consumer Demand from "Big Kids" - The report analyzes consumer profiles, motivations for purchasing trendy toy IPs, and core characteristics and behavior patterns of the target demographic, revealing insights into social needs, emotional connections, and surprise experiences [5]. Group 4: Future Opportunities and Challenges - The report explores the opportunities and challenges facing the trendy toy IP industry, providing strategic guidance for sustainable development and helping stakeholders understand future trends [6].

Group 1 - The 2025 World Brand Moganshan Conference is being held in Deqing County, Zhejiang, focusing on the theme "Brand Makes the World Better" [1] - Companies are leveraging technological innovation to break into high-end markets and enhance brand value, as highlighted by the president of Zhejiang Hars Vacuum Vessel Co., Ltd. [1] - The conference emphasizes the importance of brand construction and high-quality development in the context of a new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation [1][2] Group 2 - Traditional industries are utilizing AI and big data to diversify products, as seen in the case of Haitian Flavoring & Food Co., which has developed over 1,600 varieties of sauces while maintaining flavor consistency [2] - The automotive sector, particularly in electric vehicles, showcases China's leading position, driven by continuous innovation and unique product offerings [2] - Cultural integration is essential for enhancing brand influence, with companies like Pop Mart using trendy toys to express and preserve traditional culture [3] Group 3 - Chinese brands are evolving from followers to creators of new models and standards, gaining global recognition and value [3] - The conference highlights the role of culture as the soul of a brand, emphasizing the need for brands to connect with cultural narratives to enhance their appeal [3]

Core Viewpoint - The consumption sector in China has shown significant recovery in Q1 2023, driven by government policies aimed at boosting consumer spending, particularly through the "trade-in" program for old appliances and electronics [1][2][3]. Group 1: Consumption Data - In Q1 2023, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 12.47 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, with March alone seeing a growth of 5.9% [1]. - Per capita consumption expenditure increased by 5.2% year-on-year, contributing 2.8 percentage points to GDP growth [1]. Group 2: Impact of Trade-in Policies - The trade-in policy has led to substantial sales increases, with 12 categories of home appliances seeing 47.47 million units traded in, and digital products like smartphones reaching 3.66 million units [3]. - Over 1.2 billion people have benefited from subsidies, driving sales exceeding 720 billion yuan [3]. Group 3: Company Performance - Major appliance companies like Haier, Midea, and Gree reported double-digit growth in revenue and profit, with Haier achieving 791.2 billion yuan in revenue (up 10%) and Midea reaching 1.284 trillion yuan (up 20.6%) [4][5]. - Smaller companies also showed strong performance, with Beiding's revenue growing by 33.41% to 213 million yuan [4]. Group 4: Emerging Consumption Trends - New consumption trends are emerging, including the popularity of trendy toys, cultural tourism, and the pet economy, driven by younger consumers [5][6]. - Companies in the trendy toy sector, such as Pop Mart, reported a revenue increase of 165% in Q1, with a 95% to 100% growth in the Chinese market [6]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The pet economy is also thriving, with companies like Guibao Pets achieving a revenue of 1.48 billion yuan, up 34.82% [7]. - The overall market for emotional value-driven products is expected to expand, supported by government policies and changing consumer preferences towards quality and experience [7][8].