证券研究报告 大消费行业周报 板块有所回调，关注底部机会 平安证券研究所 大消费团队 证券分析师： 张晋溢 S1060521030001（证券投资咨询）邮箱：ZHANGJINYI112@pingan.com.cn 王星云 S1060523100001（证券投资咨询）邮箱：WANGXINGYUN937@pingan.com.cn 王萌 S1060522030001（证券投资咨询）邮箱：WANGMENG917@pingan.com.cn 胡琼方 S1060524010002（证券投资咨询）邮箱：HUQIONGFANG722@pingan.com.cn 王源 S1060524010001（证券投资咨询）邮箱：WANGYUAN468@pingan.com.cn 2025年11月23日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 资料来源：Wind，平安证券研究所 食品饮料-大众品 本周观点 大消费观点：本周（11月17日-11月21日）沪深300累计涨跌幅-3.77%，所有的大消费子行业（中信一级行业）都出现下跌：食品饮料（- 1.36%）、传媒（-1.39%）、家电（-1.98%）、农林牧渔（-3.39%）、纺织服装（-5.11%） ...

前不久，名创优品创始人叶国富在与罗永浩对谈的视频播客中提到，名创正在加速签约原创潮玩艺术家，并称「要浪费一个亿投入到IP当中」。这似乎掀 开了潮玩行业争夺IP的一角。而在此次对话之前，名创已经独家签约了包括右右酱、猪坚强、气宝等十七个艺术家IP。 名创签约的部分IP 在一些潮玩从业者看来，名创如今的高调动作更像是为了加快TOPTOY的上市，而在潮玩行业，对IP的争夺一直近两三年的重点之一。今年labubu的火 爆，不仅让更多中小潮玩公司开始入局，也让更多资本开始关注潮玩领域的投资。 混战之中，行业亟待破局。 比如今年六月成立、已经拿到阿里投资的AYOR TOYS，其创始人有MCN从业背景，建立在其对潮流消费者的洞察、新媒体经验的基础上，与田栩宁的合 作，被视为将其他市场的经验带入潮玩市场，触达更多非传统的潮玩用户的新路径。 一位潮玩公司负责人告诉我们，当下大多数潮玩公司都缺少发行能力，除了泡泡玛特，大都要依靠名创、KKV这样的渠道。而当名创开始强调自己的IP 之后，这些IP势必会受到挤压。一些头部公司由于发行资源有限，导致很多IP得不到曝光，被冷藏，最终面临解约。 传统的潮玩公司的打法是参加展会、制造稀缺、卖 ...

Group 1 - Sichuan-listed company Baili Tianheng (688506.SH) reached a historical high of 414.02 CNY per share, leading to a significant increase in the wealth of its actual controller, Zhu Yi, who became the new richest person in Sichuan [1][4] - The emergence of new billionaires in various provinces, including Sichuan, Henan, Jiangxi, and Shaanxi, reflects a shift in economic dynamics and the rise of new industries such as artificial intelligence, trendy toys, and biomedicine [3][4][10] - Baili Tianheng's stock price has seen a cumulative increase of 78.90% this year, contributing to its recognition as the new "king of Sichuan stocks" [6][10] Group 2 - The new billionaires, including Wang Ning of Pop Mart (09992.HK) and Chen Tian Shi of Cambrian (688256.SH), have seen their wealth increase significantly, with Wang's family wealth reaching 23.8 billion USD (approximately 169.48 billion CNY) [3][4] - The companies associated with these new billionaires have experienced substantial revenue growth, with Baili Tianheng's revenue increasing over ninefold in 2024, Cambrian's revenue growing over 60%, and Pop Mart's revenue rising over 106% [13][14] - The rise of these new billionaires is indicative of a broader trend where wealth is shifting towards industries that align with new productive forces, emphasizing technological breakthroughs and innovative business models [10][14][16]

Group 1: Economic Changes and Opportunities - Chongqing has become the top city for consumption, while Anhui leads in automobile production, indicating a structural adjustment in the Chinese economy [1] - Hubei's economic growth rate of 6.2% in the first half of the year is the highest among major provinces, showcasing regional economic dynamism [1] - The increase in inbound tourism in Chongqing, with 923,000 visitors in the first half of the year, reflects the impact of improved transportation networks and a shift in economic openness [1] Group 2: Regional Development and Market Integration - The acceleration of the national unified market construction is breaking down barriers, allowing for more balanced regional development and resource allocation [2] - Central and western provinces are experiencing significant growth, with Henan's consumption growth exceeding the national average by 2.2 percentage points [2] - The export growth in inland provinces, such as Henan's 38.8% increase, highlights the resilience of these regions amid external uncertainties [2] Group 3: Industrial Upgrading and Innovation - The shift towards new production capabilities is crucial for regions lagging in development to gain competitive advantages [3] - Anhui's rapid rise in the new energy vehicle sector exemplifies how regions can capitalize on emerging industries [3] - The focus on innovation and new business models is essential for regions to achieve competitive positioning in the evolving economic landscape [3] Group 4: Changing Consumer Behavior - Consumer demand is shifting towards personalized and niche products, leading to the rise of flexible manufacturing [4] - Cultural consumption is gaining prominence, as evidenced by the success of domestic cultural IPs and films [4] - The younger generation, particularly those aged 14-35, is driving digital consumption, creating new market opportunities for businesses [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International indicates that Pop Mart has experienced explosive growth in the first half of the year, achieving a revenue of 13.88 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 204.4% [1] - Adjusted net profit reached 4.71 billion yuan, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 362.8% [1] Financial Performance - The company's profitability continues to improve, with gross margin and adjusted net profit margin increasing by 6.3 and 11.6 percentage points to 70.3% and 33.9%, respectively [1] - The improvement is attributed to a higher proportion of overseas business with better profit margins and operational leverage effects [1] Future Outlook - Management has raised the full-year revenue target for 2025 to no less than 30 billion yuan, up from the previous target of 20 billion yuan, and expects the annual net profit margin to reach 35%, exceeding prior expectations [1] - Based on the strong performance in the first half of the year, the continuous expansion of the IP matrix, and the advancement of the globalization strategy, the profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been increased by 39% to 49% [1] Investment Recommendation - The target price has been raised from 300 HKD to 394 HKD [1] - The company remains the preferred choice in the consumer sector, with strong IP operational capabilities and ongoing globalization efforts, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

Group 1: Zhongtong Express (中通快递) - Profitability under pressure, adjusted net profit for Q2 2025 decreased by 26.8% YoY, with a single ticket net profit of 0.21 CNY, down 12 cents YoY [2][7][10] - Revenue for Q2 2025 reached 11.8 billion CNY, a 10.3% increase YoY, while H1 2025 revenue was 22.7 billion CNY, up 9.8% YoY [7][9] - Market share increased to 19.5% in Q2 2025, with a package volume of 9.85 billion pieces, up 16.5% YoY [9][10] - Capital expenditure for 2025 expected to remain flat or slightly decrease, with H1 2025 capital expenditure at 3.1 billion CNY [9][10] - Mid-term dividend of 0.3 USD per share, with a payout ratio of 40% [9][10] Group 2: Yuanda Pharmaceutical (远大医药) - Revenue for H1 2025 was 6.107 billion HKD, a 1.0% increase YoY, with net profit of 1.169 billion HKD, slightly down by 5.9% YoY [3][12] - The nuclear medicine segment saw a revenue increase of 105.5% YoY, contributing significantly to overall growth [12][13] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 12.254 billion, 13.376 billion, and 14.779 billion HKD, with net profits of 2.185 billion, 2.462 billion, and 2.706 billion HKD respectively [14] Group 3: Yuandong Bio (苑东生物) - H1 2025 revenue was 654 million CNY, down 2.3% YoY, with net profit of 137 million CNY, down 6.8% YoY [4][16] - The company is focusing on self-research and strategic investments to accelerate innovation [16][17] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1.501 billion, 1.795 billion, and 2.202 billion CNY, with net profits of 282 million, 345 million, and 431 million CNY respectively [18] Group 4: Pop Mart (泡泡玛特) - H1 2025 revenue reached 13.876 billion CNY, a 204.4% increase YoY, with net profit of 4.574 billion CNY, up 396.5% YoY [19][20] - The company is expanding its global presence, with significant growth in the Americas and Asia-Pacific regions [19][20] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 11.128 billion, 15.332 billion, and 20.295 billion CNY, with substantial YoY growth rates [21] Group 5: Nanjing Steel (南钢股份) - H1 2025 revenue was 28.944 billion CNY, down 14.06% YoY, while net profit increased by 18.63% to 1.463 billion CNY [23][24] - High-end products contributed significantly to profit, with advanced steel materials accounting for 29.77% of total sales [24] - The company is expanding its overseas operations, including a new coke production base in Indonesia [24] Group 6: Huayang Group (华阳集团) - H1 2025 revenue was 5.311 billion CNY, a 26.65% increase YoY, with net profit of 341 million CNY, up 18.98% YoY [26][27] - The automotive electronics and precision die-casting segments are driving growth, with significant new orders from major global clients [26][27] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 12.71 billion, 15.89 billion, and 19.17 billion CNY, with net profits of 870 million, 1.15 billion, and 1.43 billion CNY respectively [27] Group 7: Shenhuo Co. (神火股份) - H1 2025 revenue was 20.428 billion CNY, up 12.12% YoY, while net profit decreased by 16.62% to 1.904 billion CNY [29][30] - The aluminum business is the main contributor to revenue, while coal business faced significant price declines [30][31] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 2.41, 2.67, and 2.96 CNY per share, with corresponding PE ratios of 8, 7, and 7 [31] Group 8: Beixin Building Materials (北新建材) - H1 2025 revenue was 13.558 billion CNY, a slight decrease of 0.29% YoY, with net profit down 12.85% [33][34] - The gypsum board business is under pressure, while waterproof and paint businesses are showing growth [34][35] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 3.935 billion, 4.464 billion, and 4.952 billion CNY, with corresponding EPS of 2.33, 2.64, and 2.93 CNY [35]

Group 1 - The consumer industry is undergoing a critical period of simultaneous iteration across three dimensions: retail efficiency revolution on the supply side, the rise of emotional consumption on the demand side, and content e-commerce innovation in communication media, each presenting unique investment opportunities [1] - Traditional retail is focusing on two core directions: quality enhancement and discount strategies, with large supermarket retailers acting as "consumer advocates" to reshape retail logic, while discount channels emphasize "consumer democratization" with a growing focus on price-performance ratio [1] - The primary consumer group aged 25-45 is characterized by cultural confidence and a willingness to pay for emotional value, prioritizing emotional experiences and psychological satisfaction over mere practicality in their shopping habits [1] Group 2 - The iteration of communication media is providing unprecedented opportunities for new consumer brands, particularly in the beauty and personal care sector, where domestic brands have advantages in price-performance ratio, consumer insights, and rapid product innovation [2] - The investment opportunities in new consumption are shifting from total volume to structural changes, indicating a transition from channel-driven to consumer-led and product-centric dynamics, with the interplay of supply, demand, and media forming a new consumer ecosystem [2] - The company aims to continuously seek new investment opportunities to capture prospects in the new consumption wave [2]

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities expresses strong confidence in Pop Mart (09992.HK) as a one-stop platform for trendy toy IP, highlighting its growth potential through category expansion and IP development [1] Group 1: Business Growth - The company is expanding into innovative businesses such as theme parks, accessories, and desserts, which are showing promising growth [1] - The layout of content in areas like film and animation is expected to enhance the global influence of the company's IP [1] Group 2: Financial Projections - The adjusted net profit forecasts for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 are maintained at 10.2 billion, 15.2 billion, and 19.7 billion respectively [1] - The investment rating remains at "buy" [1]

Macro Strategy - The report anticipates a decline in loan demand for July and stable growth in social financing [1] - The geopolitical situation and rising interest rate expectations have boosted market sentiment, leading to an increase in US stock prices [1] - The 10-year US Treasury yield rose by 6.7 basis points to 4.283% due to weak auction results reflecting soft market demand [1] Fixed Income Analysis - The report highlights the investment value of non-ETF component bonds in the Sci-Tech bond market, suggesting a shift towards these bonds due to their higher yield and credit spread compared to ETF components [2] - It notes that 14.79% of the non-ETF component bonds have a credit spread exceeding 40 basis points, indicating potential for yield compression [2] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to have a longer-lasting impact compared to previous supply-side reforms, with a focus on high-quality development rather than large-scale demand-side stimulus [3][4] Company-Specific Insights - Guodian Measurement (002967) is recommended for its AI chip localization and high-end PCB expansion, with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 set at 4.0/4.5/5.2 billion [9] - Aisheng Co., Ltd. (600732) has shown a significant increase in shipments and profitability, with revised profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 3.8/15.6/24.9 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 107%/307%/60% [10] - Yanjing Beer (000729) continues to perform well with a focus on its U8 product line, with profit forecasts adjusted to 16.03/19.26/22.74 billion for 2025-2027 [11] - Gole Technology (002241) is expanding its AR capabilities through investment in Micro-LED technology, with profit forecasts adjusted to 34/44 billion for 2025-2026 [13] - Pop Mart (09992.HK) is expected to see rapid revenue growth driven by its IP strategy, with profit forecasts raised to 100.3/144.9/182.9 billion for 2025-2027 [14]

Core Insights - The first "Longgang Good Products Cross-border Export Selection and Linkage Conference" was successfully held in Longgang District, Shenzhen, focusing on selecting quality products for cross-border e-commerce and facilitating efficient communication among over a hundred representatives from supply chain management, e-commerce platforms, manufacturing leaders, and financial service institutions [1][5] Group 1: Event Overview - The event showcased a variety of products from Longgang, including smart wearables, trendy IPs, and intangible cultural heritage handmade items, highlighting the region's manufacturing capabilities [3] - The "Overseas Display Base" was officially inaugurated, covering an area of 2,000 square meters, marking a new phase in providing one-stop services for enterprises looking to expand internationally [5] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The Longgang District has implemented a three-year action plan (2025-2027) aimed at creating a service cultivation area for enterprises going abroad, focusing on building a comprehensive service ecosystem and attracting quality cross-border e-commerce platforms and service providers [9] - The establishment of the "Longgang Good Products Promotion Officer Alliance" signifies a new level of resource integration, incorporating new employment groups like couriers and live streamers into the brand promotion system [7] Group 3: Future Plans - The Longgang District plans to deepen platform construction, expand service scenarios, and improve the cross-border service system, aiming to support local enterprises in entering international markets and promoting high-quality economic development [9]