Group 1 - Proactive provides fast, accessible, informative, and actionable business and finance news content to a global investment audience [2] - The news team covers medium and small-cap markets, as well as blue-chip companies, commodities, and broader investment stories [3] - Proactive's content includes insights across various sectors such as biotech, pharma, mining, natural resources, battery metals, oil and gas, crypto, and emerging technologies [3] Group 2 - Proactive is committed to adopting technology to enhance workflows and content production [4] - The company utilizes automation and software tools, including generative AI, while ensuring all content is edited and authored by humans [5]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or assets discussed Core Insights - Uncertainty surrounding US tax and trade policy, along with significant US dollar weakness, suggests a potential global shift away from US dollar-denominated assets [1] - The cross-currency (XCCY) basis market can be utilized to gauge demand for US dollars and related assets, indicating a trend where investors show less interest in USD-denominated assets while favoring EUR and JPY assets [7][15] - The report anticipates that the tightening trend in the XCCY basis will persist until Federal Reserve rate cuts enhance the attractiveness of USD-denominated assets on a foreign exchange-hedged basis [16][97] Summary by Sections Executive Summary - In times of global market stress, investors typically seek safe haven currencies, with the USD historically reinforcing comfort in USD-denominated assets [8] - Post "Liberation Day" on April 2, 2025, the USD showed unusual depreciation against other currencies, raising questions about its safe haven status [11][68] XCCY Basis Market Dynamics - The XCCY basis reflects offshore demand for long-term USD funding and onshore demand for non-USD-denominated assets [7][14] - Recent movements in the XCCY basis indicate a reduced appetite for USD-denominated assets and an increased interest in EUR and JPY assets [15][16] - The report outlines key drivers of the XCCY basis, including supply and demand factors for both currencies, with negative spreads indicating a premium for borrowing USD [22][24] Key Drivers of XCCY Basis - Short-term drivers include USD liquidity, regulatory constraints, and demand for foreign assets, while medium- to long-term drivers focus on overseas asset demand and issuance-related factors [25][35][46] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the XCCY basis as it provides high-frequency signals regarding foreign demand for USD and USD-denominated assets [65][77] Recent Market Observations - Following the announcement of reciprocal tariffs, negative CCY/SOFR basis swap spreads widened but quickly normalized, indicating limited investor flight to quality [78][82] - The report suggests that diminished demand for USD among offshore investors may be occurring, with US investors showing increased interest in overseas assets [85][96]

Group 1: Financial Cooperation and Global Economic Stability - Strengthening global monetary policy coordination is crucial for promoting global economic recovery and maintaining financial system stability, especially in light of rising uncertainties in the international economy [2] - Central banks need to enhance communication with markets and adapt their monetary policy frameworks to address structural changes, including geopolitical shifts and environmental factors [2][3] Group 2: Capital Market Development - The capital market is essential for optimizing capital allocation, fostering innovation, and enhancing financing channels, necessitating a multi-tiered market system in China [3] - Shanghai is positioned as a leading international financial center, benefiting from a comprehensive financial market system and regional industrial advantages, which can facilitate further financial market internationalization [3][4] Group 3: Shanghai and Hong Kong Collaboration - The collaboration between Shanghai and Hong Kong is increasingly important due to fundamental changes in capital flows and the need for diversified investment opportunities [4] - Both cities can provide a favorable regulatory environment for international investors, particularly in the context of RMB internationalization, which is vital for attracting foreign capital [4][6] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Currently, approximately 10% of Chinese company stocks are held by international investors, indicating a significant interest in entering the Chinese market, which requires more financial futures products for risk management [6] - Hong Kong serves as a platform for global investors, while Shanghai is ideal for connecting with domestic investors, enhancing capital formation through their collaboration [5][6]

在美联储6月25日会议前，由于特朗普本人长期主张的"放松监管"立场以及这位总统提名的美联储最高 级别监管负责人鲍曼也倾向于放松监管，市场持续聚焦于"补充杠杆率"(SLR)是否会被放松。 据了解，此次会议将是美联储理事米歇尔·鲍曼(Michelle Bowman)获确认担任美联储最高级别监管负责 人后举行的首次监管政策会议。鲍曼为美国总统唐纳德·特朗普提名的共和党籍监管负责人。鲍曼对于 货币政策以及监管政策的立场均偏向宽松，这也是为何华尔街金融巨头们普遍认为特朗普提名的鲍曼将 推动大举放松美联储监管部门对于华尔街过于严苛的监管准则。 据媒体报道，鲍曼已拟定雄心勃勃的计划，欲全面改革美联储对于全美最大规模且最复杂商业银行的监 管和监控方式。 美联储在声明中未透露拟议改革方案的任何细节，但美国银行业多年来一直呼吁调整补充杠杆率，例如 通过豁免传统意义上的安全资产，或修改计算公式。 美国银行业普遍认为，补充杠杆率初衷是作为"底线"要求，即便对极其安全资产也要计提资本，但随着 时间推移，该指标已成为制约华尔街金融巨头们放贷业务的"硬性约束"，并且在市场流动性压力时期可 能将大幅削弱银行业巨头们在美国国债市场提供庞大流动 ...

Core Viewpoint - Foreign investment in domestic stocks has increased further compared to the previous month, indicating a positive outlook for the Chinese market among international investors [1][3]. Group 1: Foreign Exchange Statistics - In May 2025, banks settled 13,861 billion RMB and sold 13,051 billion RMB, with cumulative settlements from January to May reaching 67,235 billion RMB and cumulative sales at 70,867 billion RMB [2]. - In May 2025, banks recorded foreign-related income of 44,800 billion RMB and foreign payments of 42,426 billion RMB, with cumulative foreign-related income from January to May at 230,862 billion RMB and payments at 223,540 billion RMB [2]. - The overall balance of supply and demand in the foreign exchange market remained stable, with a net inflow of 33 billion USD from non-bank sectors in May [2]. Group 2: International Investor Sentiment - Morgan Stanley reported that global investors' exposure to China remains relatively low, with only about 26.6% of funds allocated to Chinese stocks compared to a 29% weight in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index [3]. - The significant 2.4 percentage point gap indicates substantial room for increased investment in Chinese equities [4]. - Many global investors expressed interest in gradually increasing their exposure to China, driven by recent advancements in technology and a reassessment of the investment landscape [3][4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Nomura Oriental International Securities predicts that Chinese equity assets will outperform overseas markets in the second half of the year, supported by policy backing for growth sectors [4]. - The static valuation of the CSI 300 index is considered undervalued by 25.6% compared to its ten-year average, making it attractive for long-term domestic investors [4]. - Goldman Sachs' chief China equity strategist expressed a positive stance on Chinese stocks, anticipating improvements in corporate earnings and increased foreign inflows into the Chinese stock market [4].

分析人士称，该法案有望为加密资产提供更清晰的合规路径，推动全球大型机构加速布局。 除美国外，欧盟已率先通过《加密资产市场法规》（MiCA），为稳定币设立统一标准；英国金融行为 监管局（FCA）也正在征求公众意见，关注稳定币与指定资产的价值挂钩机制。 与此立法进展同步，传统金融机构加速布局数字资产领域。摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase）日前宣布，将 通过其区块链平台Kinexys在Coinbase开发的Base公链上推出"存款代币"JPMD，专为机构客户提供7×24 小时结算和利息支付服务。Kinexys全球联合负责人纳文·马莱拉（Naveen Mallela）表示，JPMD有助于 提升链上资金流效率，与传统存款产品具备良好替代性。 摩根大通强调，相较面向公众的稳定币，存款代币在合规性、可控性方面更易与现有金融体系对接，具 备作为大型机构数字化结算工具的潜力。 根据美国国会公开资料，《天才法案》拟为稳定币发行方建立系统性的监管框架，涵盖储备资产类别、 信息披露与审计机制等关键条款。法案明确，稳定币发行人允许持有的储备资产包括法定货币、受保存 款、短期国债、回购协议、政府货币市场基金以及央行准备金，旨在保障 ...

Group 1: Commodity Market Insights - Citigroup predicts gold prices will fall below $3000 per ounce in the coming quarters, with a target range of $2500-$2700 by mid-2026 due to weakening investment demand and improved global economic outlook [1] - Citigroup expects Brent crude oil prices to trade around $70-$80 per barrel in the near term, while maintaining a long-term forecast of $60-$65 per barrel [2] - Bank of America warns of declining foreign demand for U.S. Treasury bonds, with custodial assets dropping over $60 billion since April [3] Group 2: Economic Policy and Market Impact - Morgan Stanley suggests that the "Beautiful America" bill may increase the deficit without significantly boosting economic growth, predicting a fiscal drag on GDP in the medium term [2] - Dutch Bank analysts indicate limited upside potential for the U.S. dollar, as geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices may not provide sufficient support [4] - German Bank analysts note that the recent strength of the dollar is primarily driven by rising oil prices rather than its safe-haven status [5] Group 3: Domestic Economic Outlook - CITIC Securities forecasts continued rapid economic growth in Q2, driven by strong industrial and service sector performance, with a focus on consumer demand and investment trends [8] - CITIC Securities identifies a long-term growth trend in the controllable nuclear fusion industry, supported by favorable policies and increased financing [8] - CITIC Securities anticipates that recent policy changes in drug and medical supply procurement will benefit high-quality innovative companies in the pharmaceutical sector [8] Group 4: Market Trends and Predictions - Zheshang Securities predicts a dual bull market for stocks and bonds in the second half of the year, driven by improved economic conditions and supportive policies [9] - Huatai Securities highlights the potential for a surge in oil transportation rates due to increased risks in the Strait of Hormuz, impacting global shipping supply chains [10] - Tianfeng Securities recommends focusing on high-elasticity industries such as storage and AI, anticipating optimistic growth in the semiconductor sector [10]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it suggests a neutral stance on basis exposure due to weak near-term demand outlook and macro uncertainties [36]. Core Insights - The demand for conventional MBS is muted, with overseas investors likely holding a similar amount of conventionals and Ginnies, contrary to common assumptions [3][25]. - CMO issuance has significantly increased, representing approximately 34% of MBS issuance year-to-date compared to just 9% in 2020-2021, indicating a shift in market dynamics [9][18]. - The GSEs may expand their investment portfolios, which could bridge the gap until bank demand returns, potentially tightening mortgage basis [30][36]. Market Recap - Rates have rallied sharply due to weak inflation and jobless claims, with CPI and PPI coming in below expectations [10]. - Mortgage spreads have not tightened consistently due to opportunistic buying from marginal buyers, particularly overseas investors [21]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The report highlights that overseas investors have been quieter this year, impacting the demand side of the equation [21]. - Servicing transfer volumes have decreased, but in-the-money loans tend to have faster speeds post-transfer [9]. - The GSEs' retained portfolios have a significant gap compared to regulatory caps, which could lead to increased investment in mortgages if the GSEs focus on generating earnings [30][31]. Investor Composition - The estimated composition of conventional MBS holders includes 26% Fed, 33% US Banks, 10% Overseas, 27% Money Managers, 1% GSEs, and 3% REITs [27]. - For Ginnie MBS, the composition is 17% Fed, 37% US Banks, 31% Overseas, and 15% Money Managers [29]. CMO Issuance Trends - CMO issuance has averaged $32 billion per month this year, driven by demand for floaters as investors seek to minimize duration risk [18]. - The report notes that CMO issuance levels have decoupled from overall MBS issuance, which remains muted [21]. Regulatory Considerations - Potential changes to LLPAs could tighten the credit box for existing low-credit borrowers, benefiting the prepayment profile of credit-impaired stores [44].

Next 12 Months Outlook: Our High-Conviction Calls Skewed to the Downside: The broad imposition of tariffs by the US is a structural shock to the global trading order. The tariffs themselves and the associated uncertainty will weigh notably on growth, but given the strong starting point coming into the year, we do not expect a global recession. Although the recent US inflation data did not show notable effects from inflation, we do not change our view that goods inflation will step up, and expect quarterly i ...

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