June 13, 2025 01:51 AM GMT Asia EM Equity Strategy | Asia Pacific Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.+ M Update Garner Alpha Bites (113): Asia vulnerability to oil price spike Brent oil is up US$5 this morning to US$75 per barrel after Israel confirmed it had launched strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities. Israel and Iraq have closed their airspaces. This comes at a time when markets had been trading close to our target prices. Our investment recommendations from our most recent note: Asia EM Equity Strateg ...

China Musings | Asia Pacific 3 New Shifts, 1 Sticky Theme We address three changes that have taken place since our mid- year outlook (trade talks, trade-ins, and the trickle of reform), and one that hasn't: why deflation remains the core macro constant. June 12, 2025 08:24 AM GMT • Allocated trade-in funding is used up in some regions: According to official disclosures, the central government has allocated and distributed two batches of trade-in funds. Rmb81bn on January 6, and another Rmb81bn in late April ...

Company Performance - Morgan Stanley closed at $129.49, reflecting a -1.84% change from the previous day, underperforming the S&P 500's loss of 1.13% [1] - Over the past month, Morgan Stanley's shares decreased by 0.45%, while the Finance sector gained 1.24% and the S&P 500 increased by 3.55% [1] Earnings Expectations - Analysts anticipate Morgan Stanley will report earnings of $2.01 per share on July 16, 2025, indicating a year-over-year growth of 10.44% [2] - The consensus estimate for revenue is projected at $16.01 billion, reflecting a 6.6% increase from the same quarter last year [2] Full Year Projections - For the full year, analysts expect earnings of $8.58 per share and revenue of $65.1 billion, representing changes of +7.92% and +5.41% respectively from the previous year [3] Analyst Forecast Revisions - Recent revisions to analyst forecasts for Morgan Stanley are crucial as they reflect near-term business trends, with upward revisions indicating positive sentiment towards the company's operations [4] Zacks Rank and Valuation - Morgan Stanley currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), with the consensus EPS projection remaining unchanged over the past 30 days [6] - The company has a Forward P/E ratio of 15.38, which is higher than the industry average of 14.88, indicating a premium valuation [7] - The PEG ratio for Morgan Stanley is 1.2, compared to the industry average of 1.21 [7] Industry Context - The Financial - Investment Bank industry is ranked 95 in the Zacks Industry Rank, placing it in the top 39% of over 250 industries [8]

图片来源：Getty Images 包括摩根大通和摩根士丹利在内的顶级银行贵金属交易员在2025年第一季度取得了五年来的最佳业绩， 部分原因在于套利机会引发大量黄金涌入美国。 12家主要银行在2025年第一季度从贵金属交易中斩获5亿美元，该数据是Crisil Coalition Greenwich整理 的十年数据中第二高的数字。该市场情报公司的数据显示，这一数字约为过去十年季度平均收入的两 倍。 部分意外收益源于美国实物黄金溢价高企——受市场对贵金属或面临关税的担忧影响，交易员纷纷将大 量黄金和白银运往美国期货交易所仓库，进而推高了溢价。 第一季度，纽约商品交易所（Comex）的金银价格大幅攀升，远超其他国际基准水平，这表明交易员能 够在伦敦、瑞士或香港等交易中心购入实物黄金，并在关税生效前运往美国以获取利润。类似情况在 2020年也曾出现，彼时疫情致使商业航班停飞，为那些设法将实物黄金运往纽约的银行创造了长期套利 契机。 交易所数据显示，摩根士丹利在第一季度为结算其自营头寸，向纽约商品交易所仓库交付了67吨黄金， 交付量居所有银行之首。按当前市价计算，这批黄金价值约70亿美元。 作为贵金属领域的主导交易商， ...

摩根士丹利分析师周四在一份报告中表示，他们认为股市正在形成"新的'牛市论'"。 这一观点源于"过去30天内对'对等关税'的几乎完全逆转以及与中国贸易紧张局势的成功缓和"所带来的 市场反弹。 该银行表示，这一复苏使风险市场完全收复了"解放日"后回调的失地，年初至今的回报率现已转为"正 值"。 此外，还有"认为通胀风险被高估；低油价是有利因素；美联储将很快开始降息"，"相信前期加载的企 业减税"将推动"资本支出和生产力繁荣"，以及"生成式人工智能仍处于早期阶段"的信念。 摩根士丹利指出，"预计标普500指数2026年盈利增长将从2025年的7-8%加速至13-14%"。 然而，他们也警告说，股票估值的复苏已将远期市盈率推高至"21.5倍以上"，而"股权风险溢价仅为6个 基点"。 据称，风险包括"全球收益率曲线"陡峭化和美国预算赤字扩大，摩根士丹利认为这可能是"美国例外论 的不利因素"。 作者：Investing 摩根士丹利指出，标普500指数目前约为6,000点，较2月19日的历史最高点仅低约2.3%，而纳斯达克指 数"已从低点反弹超过25%"。 该银行写道，市场波动性（以VIX衡量）"已大幅下降，读数现已低于其 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on global economic growth, with a focus on the impact of tariffs and inflationary pressures, suggesting a potential slowdown in investment opportunities [15][22][29]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant global growth slowdown, particularly in the US, with GDP growth expected to decline from 2.5% in 2024 to 1.0% in 2025 and 2026, driven by tariff-induced inflation and restrictive immigration policies [16][22]. - In the Euro area, growth is projected to remain around 1.0%, with inflation expected to undershoot the ECB's target due to a decline in private consumption and exports [17][22]. - Japan's economy is expected to show resilience, but inflation is moderating as the yen appreciates, leading to a hold on policy rates by the BoJ [18][22]. - China is anticipated to experience the largest slowdown, with real growth in 2025 expected to be 0.5 percentage points lower than in 2024, influenced by modest fiscal expansion and tariff impacts [19][22]. - India is projected to be the fastest-growing economy, with growth supported by domestic demand and fiscal policy, despite external headwinds [19][22]. Summary by Sections US Economic Outlook - The US economy is expected to slow significantly, with core PCE inflation peaking at 4.5% in Q3 2025, while growth stalls by late 2025 [16][22]. - The Fed is anticipated to maintain its policy rate throughout 2025, with potential easing starting in March 2026 [16][22]. Euro Area Economic Outlook - Growth is forecasted to be below potential, with the ECB expected to cut rates to 1.5% by December 2025 due to weak economic activity [17][22]. Asia Economic Outlook - Tariff uncertainty is expected to weigh on growth in Asia, particularly affecting capital expenditures [24][25]. - China's GDP deflator is projected to remain negative, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures [56]. CEEMEA and LatAm Economic Outlook - The CEEMEA region may see growth acceleration despite global uncertainties, while Brazil and Argentina are expected to fare better than Mexico amid the global slowdown [21][26]. - Mexico is significantly impacted by elevated global uncertainty, while Chile and Colombia are affected to a lesser extent [26][22]. Global Strategy - The report emphasizes that US risky and risk-free assets are attractive compared to the rest of the world, with a recommendation to overweight US equities and core fixed income [29][22].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley maintains a positive outlook on US dollar assets, recommending investors to overweight US stocks, US Treasuries, and US investment-grade corporate credit, while expressing a bearish view on the US dollar due to narrowing economic growth and yield differentials with other countries [1][4]. Economic Forecasts - The forecast for the S&P 500 index is set at 6,000 for June 2025, with a range of 4,900 in a bear scenario and 7,200 in a bull scenario by Q2 2026 [2]. - Global GDP growth is expected to decline from 3.5% in Q4 2024 to 2.5% in 2025, with US GDP growth slowing from 2.5% to 1.0% over the same period [3][8]. Asset Class Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on high-quality cyclical stocks and large-cap defensive stocks in the US, while in Europe, sectors such as defense, banking, software, telecommunications, and diversified finance are recommended for overweighting [5]. - Emerging markets should focus on financial sectors and companies with strong profitability, favoring domestic businesses over export-oriented firms [5]. Currency and Interest Rate Outlook - The US dollar index (DXY) is projected to decline by 9% to 91 by mid-2026, influenced by converging US interest rates and economic growth with other countries [9]. - The 10-year US Treasury yield is expected to drop to 4.00% by the end of 2025, with the Federal Reserve anticipated to cut rates by 175 basis points in 2026 [9][10]. Commodity Market Insights - Oil prices are expected to face downward pressure due to potential supply increases, with Brent crude projected to fall to the low $50 range by mid-2026 [11]. - Gold is favored as a safe-haven asset, supported by strong central bank demand and ETF inflows, while industrial metals may face downward price risks due to potential economic slowdowns [12].

摩根士丹利称，日本较长期国债对外国人具有吸引力 金十数据6月11日讯，摩根士丹利说，外国投资者对较长期的日本债券感兴趣，而日本政府何时会调整 所售债券的规模仍不确定。该公司全球宏观策略主管Matthew Hornbach表示："日本政府长期债券市场 仍有大量供应，这为日本以外的投资者（从加拿大到欧洲到亚洲）带来了价值。""财政部调整发债计划 的节奏较慢，最终将从投资者那里得到需要减少发债的信息，但具体的时间框架尚不清楚，" Hornbach 称。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Foreign investors are reassessing Chinese assets, with a notable increase in their willingness to allocate to Chinese stocks due to concerns about missing out on technological advancements in China [2][6][12]. Group 1: Foreign Investment Trends - According to Morgan Stanley, international investors are seeking to diversify their portfolios and are increasingly interested in Chinese stocks, as their current exposure remains relatively low [2][6]. - As of June 10, the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index have both seen year-to-date gains exceeding 20% [3][11]. - Recent inflows from long-term foreign capital, including global, U.S., and Pacific regional funds, have started to flow into the Hong Kong stock market [15]. Group 2: Market Outlook - Nomura Oriental International Securities predicts that Chinese equity assets will outperform overseas markets in the second half of the year, supported by strong policy backing for growth sectors [4][19]. - The report highlights that the gap between the weight of Chinese stocks in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index (29%) and the actual allocation by global investors (26.6%) indicates significant room for increased investment [13][14]. - Analysts expect that the performance of Hong Kong tech giants will remain robust, with anticipated earnings growth in 2025 [16]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Nomura suggests a refined "barbell strategy" focusing on dividend and tech growth sectors, as the static valuation of the CSI 300 Index is still undervalued by 25.6% compared to its ten-year average [21]. - The report emphasizes the importance of stable dividend stocks and specific tech growth sectors, such as new energy and new consumption, for the upcoming market environment [21][20]. - Huatai Securities' chief macroeconomist anticipates an upward adjustment in China's economic growth expectations, indicating potential recovery for the RMB and RMB-denominated assets [22].

Company Overview - Morgan Stanley is represented by Edward N. Pick, who serves as the CEO and Chairman of the Board [1][4]. - The conference marks the 16th iteration of this event, highlighting the firm's long-standing tradition and commitment to industry dialogue [7]. Conference Highlights - Betsy Lynn Graseck from Morgan Stanley's Research Division is leading the discussion, indicating the importance of research in the firm's operations [1][3]. - The conference is part of a broader engagement strategy, showcasing Morgan Stanley's leadership and expertise in the financial sector [1][9]. Leadership and Experience - Edward N. Pick acknowledges the extensive experience of Betsy Lynn Graseck, who has been with Morgan Stanley for 35 years, emphasizing the value of long-term commitment within the firm [5][6]. - The leadership at Morgan Stanley is characterized by a strong appreciation for the contributions of long-serving employees, which fosters a culture of loyalty and dedication [9].