M Global Insight November 16, 2025 06:00 PM GMT 2026 Global Economics Outlook At the Crossroads Global growth and inflation have an unusually wide range of outcomes in 2026, so we use scenarios to frame the picture. The base case sees continued disinflation and growth settling near potential in 2027… but potential itself might improve. We show two upside scenarios contrasting the forces of stronger spending and rising productivity, while the downside scenario is mild. Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do bus ...

Group 1 - The core view of the article is that a capital expenditure boom driven by AI is emerging, but it carries significant risks if not translated into productivity growth [1][6] - Morgan Stanley's report predicts that global AI-related capital expenditures will approach $3 trillion, with approximately $1.5 trillion needing to be financed through public and private credit markets [2][4] - The investment wave is expected to directly impact the real economy, contributing 0.4 percentage points to the projected 1.8% GDP growth in the U.S. by 2026 [2] Group 2 - The investment opportunities arising from this policy-driven cycle are expected to benefit multiple industries, not just a few leading AI companies [4] - Morgan Stanley forecasts the S&P 500 index to reach a target of 7800 points by the end of 2026, driven by earnings growth across various sectors and company sizes [4] - In the credit market, high-yield bonds are expected to outperform investment-grade bonds due to increased AI financing demand, with total returns projected at around 6-7% [4] Group 3 - Despite the positive outlook for 2026, there are warnings about potential cyclical pressures from trade policies and interest rate fluctuations [5] - The report anticipates that the Federal Reserve may begin to lower interest rates in early 2026, with 10-year Treasury yields expected to rise to 4.05% by year-end [5] - The dollar index (DXY) is projected to decline to around 94 in the first half of 2026 before rebounding, but could experience volatility due to political or trade risks [5] Group 4 - A key risk highlighted is the potential failure of the AI capital expenditure boom to deliver substantial productivity gains, which could lead to rising corporate leverage and credit market concerns [6] - However, the likelihood of this risk materializing in 2026 is considered low, as corporate fundamentals remain strong with healthy balance sheets and low leverage [6][7] - Investors are advised to monitor corporate leverage, market valuations, and whether the investment wave translates into actual output, as these indicators will influence investment recommendations [7]

此前，摩根士丹利也撤回了美联储12月降息的预测，目前预计美联储将在明年1月、4月和6月降息，最 终将政策利率降至3%至3.25%区间。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 在美国公布强于预期的就业报告后，摩根大通也撤回了对美联储12月降息25个基点的预测。 摩根大通在美国当地时间周四晚间发布的一份报告中说，仍然预计美联储将在明年1月和4月降息。 ...

Core Insights - Financial markets are reacting negatively to a shift in interest rate expectations, with major U.S. stock indices experiencing a downturn [2] - Morgan Stanley has revised its forecast, no longer expecting an interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve in December [9] - The housing market is facing challenges as mortgage rates continue to rise, with the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increasing to 6.26% [3][9] Market Performance - The broader U.S. stock market reflected cautious sentiment, with the S&P 500 down 0.3%, Nasdaq down 0.5%, and Dow down 0.2% [4][9] - Individual stock performance showed Nvidia shares declining by 1%, indicating negative trends in the technology sector [5][9] Geopolitical Context - Geopolitical developments were noted, including the death of two members of Iran's IRGC during weapons training, contributing to the global risk landscape [6][9]

Core Viewpoint - The global market experienced a significant downturn on November 18, 2025, with major indices and assets plummeting, yet UBS and Morgan Stanley maintain a bullish outlook on the Chinese market for 2026, highlighting a stark contrast in market sentiment [2][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Predictions - The U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have dramatically shifted, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in December dropping from 95% to below 50% due to hawkish signals from Fed officials [2]. - Japan's 10-year government bond yield surged to 1.75%, the highest since 2008, raising concerns about a potential massive fiscal stimulus plan from Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, estimated at 17 trillion yen [2][3]. - Bitcoin fell over 6% within 24 hours, with over 180,000 liquidations amounting to $1 billion, while gold also dropped below $4,000, indicating a rare simultaneous decline in risk and safe-haven assets [7][19]. Group 2: UBS and Morgan Stanley Insights - UBS forecasts a 14% upside for the MSCI China Index by the end of 2026, driven by a projected 10% growth in earnings per share, supported by revenue growth and improved profit margins due to policy changes [8][11]. - Morgan Stanley adopts a more cautious stance, predicting a modest increase for the Hang Seng Index and the CSI 300 Index, emphasizing a "stability-first" strategy with a focus on high-quality tech and dividend stocks [12][13]. Group 3: Structural Adjustments and Market Dynamics - UBS has made significant portfolio adjustments, removing high-dividend stocks and increasing exposure to "outbound" concept stocks, while also favoring sectors like internet, hardware technology, and brokerage [10]. - The A-share market showed a clear shift in focus, with AI application concepts performing well despite overall declines, indicating a movement of funds from high-priced themes to undervalued tech stocks [15][16]. - Domestic tech companies are accelerating AI commercialization, with Baidu reporting AI application revenue of 2.6 billion yuan, reflecting the ongoing innovation-driven profit logic [16]. Group 4: External Factors and Risks - Japan's bond market volatility poses risks to global liquidity, as its net foreign assets stand at $3.7 trillion, potentially impacting global capital flows [18]. - The upcoming Nvidia earnings report is seen as a critical factor for market direction, with concerns about a repeat of the negative market reaction following its previous report [18]. - The correlation between Bitcoin and tech stocks has reached concerning levels, with potential for a chain reaction of sell-offs if Bitcoin continues to decline [19].

Core Insights - Strong non-farm payroll data reduces the risk of rising unemployment, leading to a revised outlook on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1] - Morgan Stanley analyst Michael Gapen no longer expects a rate cut in December, now forecasting three rate cuts in 2024 [1] - The final interest rate prediction is maintained at 3-3.25% [1]

Monetary Policy Outlook - Morgan Stanley no longer anticipates a December Fed rate cut [1] - The bank now forecasts three rate cuts in 2025: January, April, and June [1] - Morgan Stanley maintains its terminal rate forecast at 3-325% [1] Economic Indicators - Stronger payrolls data reduces the perceived risk of rising unemployment [1]

Core Insights - Cullen Capital Management's SCCM Value Equity Strategy reported a gross return of 6.9% and a net return of 6.8% for Q3 2025, outperforming the Russell 1000 Value's 5.3% and underperforming the S&P 500's 8.1% during the same period [1] - Year-to-date, the strategy achieved a gross return of 13.0%, compared to Russell 1000 Value's +11.7% and S&P 500's +14.8% [1] Company Performance - Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) demonstrated strong performance with a one-month return of 2.64% and a 52-week gain of 23.24%, closing at $162.29 per share with a market capitalization of $259.069 billion on November 19, 2025 [2] - The financial sector, particularly Morgan Stanley, was the largest contributor to the SCCM Value Equity Strategy's relative performance, with Morgan Stanley reporting a 13.6% increase in stock value [3] - Morgan Stanley's Q3 2025 revenues reached $18.2 billion, with an EPS of $2.80, and its Wealth Management division saw a 14% year-over-year revenue growth [4] Sector Insights - The financial sector's strong stock selection contributed significantly to the overall performance of the SCCM Value Equity Strategy [3] - Despite Morgan Stanley's potential, the company is not among the top 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds, with 67 hedge fund portfolios holding its shares at the end of Q2 2025 [4]

Summary of the 2026 China Equity Strategy Outlook Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese stock market** and its outlook for 2026, following a strong performance in 2025 where major indices like the MSCI China Index and Hang Seng Index rose over **30%** year-to-date [1][10][11]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Stability and Growth**: - 2026 is expected to be a year of stabilization after the high returns of 2025, with limited upside potential for indices and moderate earnings growth projected at **6%** [2][15]. - The MSCI China Index is forecasted to trade at a forward P/E ratio of **12-13x**, with a target of **90 points** for December 2026, indicating a **3%** upside from the current levels [2][15]. 2. **Valuation and Earnings Quality**: - The report highlights that the valuation re-rating has already occurred, with a **30%** increase in the past year, suggesting limited room for further upward revaluation [12][15]. - Concerns about the sustainability of corporate earnings are raised, as recent earnings reports show a slight deterioration in the number of companies exceeding expectations [11][15]. 3. **Macroeconomic Factors**: - The Chinese economy is expected to face ongoing deflationary pressures, with real GDP growth projected to slow to **4.8%** in 2026 [12][15]. - Global macroeconomic uncertainties, particularly regarding the U.S. economy, could impact China's growth trajectory [14][15]. 4. **Investment Strategy**: - A "barbell strategy" is recommended, favoring high-quality internet and technology leaders while underweighting sectors like real estate, consumer staples, and energy that are negatively impacted by macroeconomic conditions [3][30]. - Key trading ideas include focusing on stocks benefiting from the "anti-involution" policies and those included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect [3][31]. 5. **Liquidity and Capital Flows**: - The report anticipates continued net inflows into both A-shares and offshore markets, supported by policy measures aimed at stimulating consumption and managing real estate inventories [2][28]. Additional Important Insights - **Geopolitical Considerations**: The report notes that a stable geopolitical environment, particularly in U.S.-China relations, could positively influence market sentiment [22][25]. - **Sector Preferences**: There is a strong emphasis on investing in companies with robust fundamentals and growth prospects, particularly in technology and innovation sectors aligned with China's strategic planning [19][30]. - **Scenario Analysis**: The report outlines a wide range of potential outcomes for the Chinese stock market, with optimistic scenarios suggesting a **30%** upside and pessimistic scenarios indicating a potential **34%** decline [25][26]. Conclusion - The outlook for the Chinese stock market in 2026 is characterized by cautious optimism, with a focus on sustainable growth and selective investment strategies. The anticipated stabilization in market performance, combined with macroeconomic challenges, necessitates a strategic approach to capital allocation in the coming year [1][15][19].

Core Insights - Foreign institutions significantly increased their holdings in Chinese assets during the third quarter, with major players like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Merrill Lynch raising their A-share positions by over 20% [1][3] - The China Overseas Internet ETF (KWEB) saw substantial investment from foreign institutions, with its size growing from $6.373 billion at the end of the first half to $9.793 billion by the end of the third quarter [2] Group 1: Foreign Investment Trends - Major foreign institutions such as Bank of America, UBS, Morgan Stanley, and Millennium Management have increased their holdings in the China Overseas Internet ETF, with share counts rising by 215.89%, 35.29%, 24.76%, and 307.44% respectively [2] - As of the end of the third quarter, 3,554 A-share companies had foreign institutional holdings, totaling approximately ¥2.73 trillion, reflecting a 12.4% increase from the previous quarter [3] Group 2: Specific Stock Increases - Citigroup held 3.83 million shares of Alibaba, with a market value of $684 million, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.63% in shares and 66.45% in market value [3] - JPMorgan held 5.58 million shares of Pinduoduo, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.5% in shares and 48.38% in market value [3] - Citigroup held 350,000 shares of Baidu, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.75% in shares and 64% in market value [3] Group 3: Institutional Insights - Notable foreign institutions such as Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs Asia, and Merrill Lynch significantly increased their A-share holdings, with Morgan Stanley's increase exceeding 30% at 33.1% [3] - As of the third quarter of 2025, foreign institutional investors further increased their holdings in Chinese stocks, with the top 40 global investment institutions' holdings rising to 1.1%, the highest level since the first quarter of 2023 [3]