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Core Viewpoint - U.S. equity futures are showing a mixed to positive outlook as investors react to recent corporate earnings, particularly in the technology sector, while also anticipating important economic data releases [1] Premarket Trading and Futures Movements - U.S. stock futures are generally higher, with Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.4%, S&P 500 futures up 0.3%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures up 0.1% [2] - The S&P 500 finished flat in the previous session, while the Nasdaq Composite rose by 0.2%, indicating a cautious optimism driven by positive earnings reports from tech companies [2] Current Market Indexes and Trends - The S&P 500 briefly surpassed 7,000 before settling lower, while the Nasdaq Composite showed strength, particularly from semiconductor stocks like Texas Instruments, which surged 9.9% [3] - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates at 3.5%-3.75% and Chair Powell's comments on inflation are influencing market sentiment [3] Upcoming Market Events - Investors are closely monitoring a busy calendar of economic data and corporate earnings for further market direction [4] Earnings Releases - Key companies reporting earnings include Mastercard, Caterpillar, Thermo Fisher, Honeywell, Lockheed Martin, Sanofi, and Blackstone before market open, with Apple, Visa, and Western Digital reporting after market close [5] Economic Data Announcements - The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the revised Productivity and Costs report for Q3 2025, and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model will update its GDP growth estimate, which was last at 5.4% for Q4 2025 [6] Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to hold interest rates steady reflects a cautious approach, with Chair Powell noting improvements in the economic outlook but highlighting inflation concerns [7] Major Stock News and Developments - Microsoft shares fell 6.1% in premarket trading despite beating earnings estimates, raising concerns about capital spending and Azure growth [9] - Meta Platforms saw a 7.0% increase in after-hours trading due to strong advertising revenue [9] - Tesla gained 1.9% as investors focused on its future plans despite softer profits [9] - Sanofi announced a three-year profitability improvement program targeting 10% EBITDA by 2028 [10]

单季狂赚385亿美元，依然难挡华尔街对微软的焦虑。 因为云业务增速赶不上前所未有的烧钱速度，市场恐慌正在加剧。 周四，微软股价在法兰克福市场下跌6%，美股盘前也大跌超6%，报451.33美元。 净利飙升60% 财报显示，微软2026财年第二季度营收和利润均超出华尔街预期。 其中，营收813亿美元，同比增长17%，高于预期的803.1亿美元。 营业利润为383亿美元，同比增长21%，同样高于预期。 按GAAP口径计算，净利润飙升60%至385亿美元。稀释后每股收益为5.16美元，同比增长60%，高于预 期的3.92美元。 | (In百万关元,细般含额除外)(朱经富计) | | | 止三个月 | | | 止六个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 12月31日, | | | 12月31日, | | | | 2025 | 2024 | | 2025 | 2024 | | 收入: | | | | | | | | 产品 | રે | 16,451 $ | 16,219 | $ | 32,373 $ | 31,491 | | 服务等 | | 64, ...

格隆汇1月29日｜加拿大丰业银行：将微软(MSFT.US)目标价从650美元下调至600美元。 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - Major indices futures showed positive movement with Dow futures up 0.08%, S&P 500 futures up 0.17%, and Nasdaq futures up 0.23% [1] Group 2: Company Earnings Reports - Meta reported Q4 2025 revenue of $59.893 billion, a 24% year-over-year increase, exceeding analyst expectations of $58.42 billion; net profit was $22.768 billion, up 9%, with diluted EPS of $8.88, up 11% [2] - Microsoft reported Q2 2026 revenue and profit above expectations, with Azure cloud revenue growing 38% year-over-year, matching analyst forecasts; however, growth slowed by 1 percentage point from the previous quarter [3] - IBM's Q4 2025 revenue was $19.69 billion, a 12% increase year-over-year, with software revenue at $9.03 billion, up 14%, and consulting revenue at $5.35 billion, up 3.4%; free cash flow grew 23% to $7.55 billion [5] Group 3: Strategic Changes and Investments - Tesla announced plans to halt production of Model S and Model X to make way for Optimus robot production lines, despite a 3% year-over-year revenue decline to $24.901 billion in Q4 2025 [4] - Amazon confirmed layoffs of approximately 16,000 corporate positions, marking the second round of significant layoffs since October, totaling 30,000 positions or about 10% of its corporate and tech workforce [6] - Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon are reportedly in discussions to invest up to $60 billion in OpenAI, with Nvidia considering up to $30 billion, Microsoft planning under $10 billion, and Amazon potentially exceeding $10 billion [7] Group 4: Regulatory Issues - Deutsche Bank's Frankfurt office was raided by German prosecutors in connection with a money laundering investigation, with the bank cooperating with authorities [8]

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures rose on Thursday following a mixed close on Wednesday, with major benchmark indices showing positive movement [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5%–3.75%, pausing its easing cycle after three rate cuts last year [1] Federal Reserve Insights - Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized a data-driven approach to decision-making, avoiding political criticisms during a press conference [2] - The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.26%, while the two-year bond was at 3.58%, with an 86.5% likelihood of unchanged interest rates in March according to CME Group's FedWatch tool [3] Stock Performance - Dow Jones increased by 0.15%, S&P 500 by 0.27%, Nasdaq 100 by 0.37%, and Russell 2000 by 0.26% [3] - Microsoft (MSFT) shows a weak price trend across all time frames but maintains a good quality ranking [3] - Tesla (TSLA) has a stronger long-term price trend but a weak short-term trend with a poor value ranking [4] - Meta Platforms (META) maintains a strong price trend across all time frames with a good quality ranking [5] - International Business Machines (IBM) shows a stronger price trend across all time frames with a solid quality ranking [6] - Apple Inc. (AAPL) is projected to post quarterly earnings of $2.67 per share on revenue of $138.42 billion, with a stronger long-term price trend but weak short and medium-term trends [8] Sector Performance - Energy and information technology stocks closed higher, while real estate, consumer staples, and health care sectors recorded the largest losses on Wednesday [9] Analyst Insights - BlackRock maintains a constructive economic outlook, citing "immutable economic laws" as stabilizers against extreme policy shifts [10] - The firm expects the Federal Reserve to adopt a "wait-and-see" stance, leaving interest rates unchanged due to mixed economic signals [11] - BlackRock remains overweight on U.S. equities, viewing the "AI buildout" as a significant structural driver, while forecasting record U.S. investment-grade bond issuance of $1.85 trillion this year [11] - Increased leverage among mega-cap tech firms is noted, with a preference for high-yield bonds over investment-grade bonds due to potential vulnerabilities in the financial system [12] Commodities and Global Markets - Crude oil futures rose by 2.55% to approximately $64.82 per barrel, while Gold Spot increased by 1.88% to around $5,519.32 per ounce [14] - Bitcoin (BTC) traded 1.57% lower at $87,847.25 per coin [14] Economic Data - Upcoming economic data includes initial jobless claims, delayed U.S. trade deficit report, and revised U.S. productivity data [15]

Core Viewpoint - Microsoft reported strong Q2 FY2026 earnings with revenue of $81.3 billion and EPS of $4.14, exceeding Wall Street expectations, yet the stock price fell over 6% post-announcement due to concerns over high capital expenditures and slower growth in cloud services [2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Microsoft’s capital expenditures surged approximately 66% year-over-year to a record $37.5 billion, raising investor concerns about the return on investment (ROI) in relation to Azure's revenue growth of 39% [3][5]. - The company emphasized that the current growth limitation is not demand but supply, indicating a tight supply-demand relationship in the market [3][6]. Group 2: Strategic Insights - CFO Amy Hood stated that if all newly launched GPUs were allocated to Azure, growth rates would exceed 40%, highlighting a resource allocation challenge between external customer demands and internal AI product needs [5][6]. - CEO Satya Nadella stressed the importance of customer lifetime value (LTV) over short-term growth in individual business units, advocating for a balanced approach to resource allocation [7][8]. Group 3: AI and Product Development - Microsoft reported a 160% year-over-year increase in paid seats for Microsoft 365 Copilot, reaching 15 million users, and a tenfold increase in daily active users, countering concerns about declining AI tool usage [9][10]. - GitHub Copilot also saw a 75% increase in paid subscribers, indicating strong growth in AI productivity tools across both consumer and business sectors [11]. Group 4: Cost Management and Infrastructure - Microsoft introduced its self-developed Maya 200 accelerator, claiming a 30% reduction in total cost of ownership (TCO) compared to existing hardware, as part of its strategy to control AI infrastructure costs [12][13]. - The company highlighted the critical role of data storage and management in AI, with Microsoft Fabric achieving an annual revenue run rate exceeding $2 billion and a 60% year-over-year growth [15]. Group 5: Market Outlook - Microsoft expressed strong confidence in long-term AI demand, framing the current landscape as a "arms race" for computing power, where efficiency in deployment will determine market leaders [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - Microsoft reported a 17% year-over-year revenue growth to $81.3 billion for Q2, with operating profit increasing by 21% to $38.3 billion, both exceeding expectations [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Revenue for the second fiscal quarter reached $81.3 billion, reflecting a 17% increase compared to the previous year [1] - Operating profit rose to $38.3 billion, marking a 21% year-over-year growth [1] Group 2: Azure Cloud Business - Azure cloud computing revenue grew by 38% year-over-year, aligning with analyst expectations, but showed a 1 percentage point slowdown compared to the previous quarter [1] Group 3: Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditures surged by 66% year-over-year, reaching a record $37.5 billion, raising concerns about the sustainability and profitability of AI demand [1]

Group 1: AI Chatbot Market Dynamics - OpenAI's ChatGPT currently holds 68% of the AI chatbot market, a decrease from 87.2% a year ago, while Google's Gemini has rapidly increased its market share to 18.2% from 5.4% in January 2025 [2] - The competition in the generative AI chatbot space is intensifying, particularly with the success of Gemini [1] Group 2: Investment and Valuation Trends - SoftBank is in discussions to invest up to $30 billion in OpenAI's latest funding round, which could elevate OpenAI's valuation to approximately $830 billion [2] - Anthropic has raised its revenue forecast for 2026 by 20% to $55 billion, indicating strong growth potential in the AI sector [3] Group 3: Emergence of Agentic AI - 'Agentic AI' represents a new wave of AI technology capable of achieving complex goals with minimal human oversight, exemplified by the Clawdbot (now Moltbot) [5] - The rise of agentic AI is causing traditional software stocks to face selling pressure as investors anticipate disruption [5] Group 4: Corporate Investments and Stake Valuations - Zoom has seen its shares surge following its $53 million investment in Anthropic, with its stake now valued at least $2 billion [4] - Other major tech companies, including Amazon, also hold stakes in Anthropic, reflecting the growing interest in AI technologies [4]

Core Insights - Microsoft reported strong financial results for Q2 of FY2026, with revenue of $81.3 billion, a 17% year-over-year increase, and net income of $38.5 billion, reflecting a 60% increase [2] - The cloud business revenue surpassed $50 billion, indicating robust demand for Microsoft's service offerings [2][4] - Despite exceeding expectations, Microsoft's stock price fell approximately 7% post-earnings release [2] Financial Performance - Revenue: $81.3 billion, up 17% year-over-year [2] - Operating Income: $38.3 billion, up 21% year-over-year [2] - GAAP Net Income: $38.5 billion, up 60% year-over-year [2] - Non-GAAP Net Income: $30.9 billion, up 23% year-over-year [2] - Earnings per Share: $5.16, with $1.02 attributed to OpenAI-related earnings [6] Cloud Business Insights - Cloud revenue reached $51.5 billion, a 26% year-over-year increase, with Azure and other cloud services growing by 39% [4][6] - The backlog of cloud contracts doubled year-over-year to $625 billion, with 45% of this attributed to OpenAI [7] - The growth rate of cloud business has slightly slowed, down about 1% from the previous quarter [4] AI and OpenAI Impact - Microsoft's performance is significantly influenced by its partnership with OpenAI, with $7.6 billion of net income derived from OpenAI-related earnings [6] - The company is integrating AI tools powered by OpenAI into its products, aiming to enhance productivity software and cloud service sales [6] - The future sales potential is bolstered by a new $250 billion agreement with OpenAI, reflecting a strong reliance on AI for growth [7]