Core Viewpoint - Macquarie's research report indicates that Anta Sports is likely to gain market share as Nike continues to adjust in China, with expectations of a narrowing revenue decline for Nike in the upcoming fiscal quarter [1][2]. Group 1: Nike's Financial Performance - Nike's revenue for Q4 FY2025 decreased by 11% year-over-year, exceeding FactSet's expectation of a 3.4% decline, with regional revenues in North America, Europe-Middle East-Africa, Greater China, and Asia-Pacific-Latin America showing declines of -11%, -10%, -20%, and -3% respectively [1][2]. - Management anticipates a moderate single-digit decline in revenue for Q1 FY2026, with gross margins expected to decrease by 350-425 basis points, including a 100 basis point negative impact from tariffs [2][3]. - Inventory levels remained high, with a year-over-year change of 0% in Q4 FY2025, while Nike plans to continue reducing inventory over the next two quarters [2][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - Anta Sports is expected to benefit from Nike's market adjustments, potentially gaining market share as Nike's direct business in Greater China saw a 15% year-over-year revenue decline [1][3]. - The wholesale revenue for Nike in Greater China decreased by 24%, which may alleviate pressure on retailers like Topsports [3]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying as international brands increase efforts to regain market share, leading to more frequent promotional activities due to slower-than-expected inventory clearance [7]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Cost Management - Nike is implementing strategies to mitigate approximately $1 billion in incremental tariff costs by optimizing procurement and production distribution, aiming to reduce imports from China to the U.S. from 16% to a high single-digit percentage by the end of FY2026 [2][3]. - Collaboration with suppliers and retail partners is planned to minimize the impact of rising costs on consumers, with price increases phased in starting from Fall 2025 [2][3]. Group 4: Stock Recommendations - Anta Sports (2020 HK) is rated as outperform with a target price of 132 HKD, while companies like Feng Tay (9910 TT) and Stella (1836 HK) are rated underperform [5][6]. - The report highlights that despite ongoing revenue challenges for Nike in China, improved inventory management is expected to benefit Topsports (6110 HK) [5].

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Core Viewpoint - Nike's transformation efforts are showing results, with the company aiming to continue its legacy despite challenges in the market [2][29] Financial Performance - Nike reported a total revenue of $46.3 billion for the fiscal year 2025, with Q4 revenue reaching $11.1 billion, exceeding expectations [2] - The Greater China region contributed $6.585 billion in annual revenue and $1.476 billion in Q4 revenue [2] - Following the earnings report, Nike's stock surged by 15.25%, marking the largest single-day increase in nearly four years, with a market capitalization surpassing $106.4 billion [2] Strategic Initiatives - The new CEO, John Donahoe, emphasized the "Win Now" plan, which focuses on rapid actions to reshape brand competitiveness and market growth [10][29] - The "Sport Offense" strategy aims to enhance brand differentiation in core sports areas and improve product offerings [2][29] Product Innovation - Nike has upgraded its running shoe lineup, focusing on cushioning performance, with the Vomero 18 generating over $100 million in sales within 90 days [12] - The company continues to leverage its sports science and design capabilities to create innovative products that push human limits [7][12] Market Focus - Nike is targeting emerging markets, particularly in women's, children's, and outdoor segments, as key growth areas [20][21] - The "Breaking Four" initiative is a strategic move to capture the women's sports market, which has historically lagged behind men's [21][29] Community Engagement - Nike launched the "2025 AFTER DARK TOUR" in Shanghai, engaging 3,500 female runners to promote women's running [22] - The company is also focusing on local community engagement in basketball through various events and initiatives [15][24] Inventory Management - Nike has made significant progress in optimizing its inventory, reducing classic shoe lines by over 20% year-on-year, with a 30% reduction in Q4 [17] - The company plans to continue clearing excess inventory through discount channels in the upcoming quarters [18] Brand Positioning - Nike is reinforcing its brand identity by driving innovation and emotional connections with consumers, particularly among younger demographics [25][29] - Collaborations with brands like LEGO aim to resonate with the younger generation and enhance brand appeal [25]

Market Overview - June saw significant gains in the stock market, driven by solid economic data, reduced trade war concerns, and the Federal Reserve's indication of planned rate cuts [1][3] - The S&P 500 reached an all-time high, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average also finished with solid gains despite not reaching its peak from December 2024 [1] Company Performance - **Goldman Sachs (Up 17.9%)** - Goldman Sachs experienced a nearly 18% increase in stock price, benefiting from the overall market uptrend, a recovering IPO market, and anticipated Fed rate cuts [4] - The company showed the largest year-over-year improvement in the Fed's stress test results, potentially allowing a 300 basis point reduction in its stress capital buffer, enhancing financial flexibility [5] - Despite strong past performance, further gains are contingent on continued economic health [5] - **Nike (Up 17.3%)** - Nike's stock surged following a better-than-expected earnings report, despite ongoing challenges from previous management and anticipated tariff-related costs of $1 billion this year [7] - The positive earnings results and guidance lifted investor sentiment, indicating potential for recovery, although it may take years [8] - Nike's strategic moves to rebuild wholesale relationships and invest in new products appear to be yielding positive results, positioning the stock as a long-term investment opportunity [8]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies within it [4]. Core Insights - The offline retail sales performance of sportswear brands in Southwest China was under pressure in 2Q25, primarily due to weak consumer spending, with major brands experiencing negative sales growth [2][6]. - NIKE's sales in Southwest China saw a significant year-on-year decline, while ADIDAS performed slightly better with a high single-digit to low double-digit decline [2][6]. - Outdoor brands like Columbia and The North Face showed better performance due to strong demand for outdoor activities, camping, and tourism [2][6]. - The summer sports shoe market is facing sluggish consumption in traditional categories, but there is a rising trend in outdoor and fashion footwear [2][6]. Summary by Sections Offline Retail Performance - In 2Q25, offline retail data for sports brands in Southwest China weakened compared to 1Q25, with all major brands reporting negative sales growth [2][6]. - Store traffic remained stable, but transaction rates and average customer spending declined due to weak consumer purchasing willingness [2][6]. Brand Performance - NIKE's focus on footwear has led to a decline in its apparel market share, while ADIDAS maintained stable discount levels and focused on apparel sales, contributing to its relatively better performance [4]. - FILA's sales decline has narrowed, and the brand is shifting towards professional sports categories, enhancing its market position [4]. - LI-NING has become a partner of the Chinese Olympic Committee, while Anta is expanding into the outdoor cycling market [4]. Inventory and Discounts - Inventory levels are slightly elevated, leading to increased discounting across brands, with LI-NING and Anta offering the highest discount rates [3][4]. - The discount intensity for outdoor brands varies, with PELLIOT offering the highest discounts [3][4]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that outdoor brands will perform better in the second half of the year, driven by increased sales in outdoor activities [4].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a trade agreement between the U.S. and Vietnam, which includes increased tariffs on imports from Vietnam, has led to a rise in stock prices for companies like Nike and Lululemon, but analysts warn of potential downward adjustments in earnings forecasts due to the new tariffs [2][3]. Group 1: Impact of Tariffs - The new agreement imposes a 20% tariff on goods imported from Vietnam and a 40% tariff on goods transshipped through Vietnam, compared to the previous 10% tariff [2]. - UBS analysts predict that earnings per share for covered apparel manufacturers and retailers will be adjusted downwards by an average of 3% to 5% for this year and next [3]. - Companies such as Victoria's Secret, Under Armour, and G-III Apparel Group are expected to be most affected, with potential earnings adjustments of 12% to 20% [3]. Group 2: Supply Chain Challenges - The difficulty of relocating manufacturing back to the U.S. is highlighted, as many companies are currently negotiating with suppliers to share the burden of the new tariffs [4]. - Analysts note that Vietnam is a crucial sourcing location for many apparel brands, with significant percentages of their products being manufactured there: On Holding (90%), Deckers Outdoor (75%), and Nike (42%) [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Sentiment - Despite the increase in tariffs, some analysts believe the market's initial concerns may have been overstated, as the new tariff rates are lower than previously feared [4]. - Possible reasons for the initial rise in apparel stocks include the market having already priced in higher tariffs, a belief that further tariff increases are unlikely, and the perception that the cost impact of tariffs can be managed [4].

Core Insights - Nike's fiscal year 2025 results showed a total revenue of $46.3 billion, with Q4 revenue reaching $11.1 billion, exceeding expectations [3] - The company's stock surged by 15.25% on the day of the earnings report, marking its largest single-day increase in nearly four years, and its market capitalization surpassed $106.4 billion [3] - New CEO John Donahoe emphasized the ongoing transformation under the "Win Now" plan, which aims to enhance brand competitiveness and operational efficiency [3][10] Financial Performance - Nike's Greater China revenue for the fiscal year was $6.585 billion, with Q4 revenue at $1.476 billion [3] - The company reported a significant reduction in inventory levels, with a year-over-year decrease of over 20% in classic shoe lines and a 30% reduction in Q4 [15] - Inventory levels in Greater China decreased by 11% year-over-year [15] Strategic Initiatives - The "Sport Offense" strategy focuses on core sports areas, brand differentiation, and enhancing product offerings to drive future growth [3][10] - Nike's "Win Now" plan includes rapid actions to reshape brand competitiveness and reactivate market growth amid increasing competition [10] - The company has launched a series of innovative running shoes, including the Vomero, Structure, and Pegasus lines, which have seen strong sales [11] Market Engagement - Nike is actively engaging with female athletes through initiatives like the "Breaking Four" project, aiming to capture the growing women's sports market [16][17] - The company has launched the "2025 AFTER DARK TOUR" in Shanghai, targeting female runners and promoting running culture [17] - Nike's basketball segment continues to thrive, with new signature shoes and community-focused events enhancing its local presence [13][15] Brand Positioning - Nike's historical milestones in sports, such as the first women's marathon gold medal and the "Breaking Two" marathon, reinforce its brand identity as a pioneer in athletic achievement [7] - The company is leveraging emotional consumption trends among younger consumers, collaborating with brands like LEGO to enhance engagement [19][22] - Nike's commitment to innovation and local market investment aims to build a sustainable competitive advantage in the sportswear industry [24]

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Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [6] Core Insights - For FY2025, Nike achieved revenue of $46.31 billion, slightly above expectations (Bloomberg consensus expected $45.91 billion), with a year-over-year decline of 9% at constant exchange rates. The gross margin decreased by 1.9 percentage points to 42.7%. In FY2025Q4, revenue was $11.10 billion, down 11% year-over-year at constant exchange rates, with a gross margin decline of 4.4 percentage points to 40.3%, primarily impacted by high discounts in wholesale and factory stores, increased supply chain costs, and significant declines in direct sales channels [2][4][9]. Summary by Sections Revenue Breakdown - For FY2025, Nike's revenue by region showed declines: North America -8%, EMEA -10%, APLA -3%, and Greater China -12%, with respective revenues of $19.57 billion, $12.26 billion, $6.25 billion, and $6.59 billion. North America and EMEA showed improved sales confidence, while Greater China faced significant inventory clearance challenges [9]. Channel Performance - Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) and wholesale revenues were down 12% and 6%, respectively, totaling $18.78 billion and $25.88 billion. The DTC decline was mainly due to significant drops in e-commerce sales [9]. Product Performance - Revenue from footwear, apparel, and equipment declined by 11%, 5%, and increased by 6%, totaling $29.51 billion, $12.97 billion, and $2.19 billion, respectively. The footwear segment faced pressure primarily due to inventory clearance of classic products, which is expected to continue into FY2026H1 [9]. Inventory Situation - As of FY2025Q4, Nike's inventory stood at $7.49 billion, remaining stable year-over-year but down 1% quarter-over-quarter. The company plans to continue inventory clearance over the next two quarters to restore healthy inventory levels by FY2026H1 [9]. Tariff Impact - The average tariff rate on Nike's imported footwear to the U.S. is approximately 15%, with new tariff rates expected to add about $1 billion in costs. The company plans to mitigate these costs through supply chain reallocation and selective price increases starting in Fall 2025 [9]. Performance Guidance - Following a challenging FY2025Q4, Nike anticipates that revenue and gross margin pressures will begin to ease, with expectations of a single-digit revenue decline and a gross margin decrease of 0.35 to 0.425 percentage points in FY2026Q1 [9].

By signing Cooper Flagg, Shohei Ohtani, Coco Gauff and other young superstars, the 119-year-old sneaker and apparel brand is on a mission to redefine its place in the sports hierarchy.Read more: https://t.co/EOJjszjTW8 https://t.co/lKto9POene ...