该行认为，携程2025年营业额的1%至10%作为罚款框架，这在方向上与法规一致(尤其是在2026年做出 决定并参考2025年营业额的情况下)。 仅就锚定效应而言，预计携程2025年的净收入为619亿元人民币;从惯性角度来看，1%至10%的罚款范 围，若应用于类似规模的营业额，则意味着约6-62亿元亿人民币，这并未考虑市监总局如何对相关营业 额基数的定义。 摩根大通发布研报称，携程集团-S(09961/TCOM.US)宣布，收到国家市场监督管理总局(市监总局)发出 的调查通知书。根据该通知书，市监总局已根据中国反垄断法开始对该公司进行调查。 ...

仅就锚定效应而言，预计携程2025年的净收入为619亿元人民币;从惯性角度来看，1%至10%的罚款范 围，若应用于类似规模的营业额，则意味着约6-62亿元亿人民币，这并未考虑市监总局如何对相关营业 额基数的定义。 该行认为，携程2025年营业额的1%至10%作为罚款框架，这在方向上与法规一致(尤其是在2026年做出 决定并参考2025年营业额的情况下)。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通发布研报称，携程集团-S(09961/TCOM.US)宣布，收到国家市场监督管理 总局(市监总局)发出的调查通知书。根据该通知书，市监总局已根据中国反垄断法开始对该公司进行调 查。 ...

Summary of Trip.com Group (TCOM) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Trip.com Group (TCOM) - **Market Cap**: $39.9 billion - **Enterprise Value**: $33.5 billion - **Current Price**: $62.78 - **12-Month Price Target**: $91.00 (Upside: 45.0%) [1][34] Key Industry Insights - **Regulatory Environment**: The State Administration for Market Regulations (SAMR) of the PRC has initiated an anti-trust investigation into TCOM, marking the first formal inquiry against the company under the Anti-Monopoly Law [1][3] - **Historical Context**: The investigation aligns with China's broader regulatory focus on online businesses, particularly in the OTA (Online Travel Agency) sector, aimed at promoting fair competition and preventing monopolistic practices [2][20] - **Previous Cases**: Similar investigations have been conducted against Alibaba and Meituan, resulting in significant fines and stock price volatility during the investigation periods [21][23] Financial Performance and Projections - **Revenue Forecast**: Projected revenues for FY24, FY25, FY26, and FY27 are Rmb 53.3 billion, Rmb 62.1 billion, Rmb 70.9 billion, and Rmb 79.4 billion respectively, indicating a growth trajectory [7][18] - **EBITDA Growth**: Expected EBITDA for the same periods is Rmb 17.1 billion, Rmb 18.9 billion, Rmb 22.0 billion, and Rmb 25.0 billion, reflecting a positive growth outlook [7][18] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Projected EPS for FY24, FY25, FY26, and FY27 are Rmb 26.20, Rmb 46.30, Rmb 31.43, and Rmb 34.72 respectively [7][18] Market Reaction and Volatility - **Stock Price Reaction**: Following the announcement of the investigation, TCOM's stock price dropped by 18% intraday, indicating heightened market sensitivity to regulatory news [23] - **Historical Volatility**: Previous investigations into Alibaba and Meituan resulted in stock price declines of 13% and 23% respectively during their investigation periods, suggesting potential for similar volatility for TCOM [23][24] Investment Thesis - **Market Position**: TCOM is recognized as a dominant player in China's OTA market, with expectations of continued market share gains and expansion into lower-tier cities [33] - **Valuation**: The current valuation is considered undemanding, trading at approximately 14x FY26E P/E, close to the low end of its historical range [23][34] - **Risks**: Key risks include regulatory scrutiny, increased competition, and slower-than-expected recovery in outbound travel [34] Conclusion - TCOM is positioned for growth despite regulatory challenges, with a strong financial outlook and potential for market share expansion. However, investors should remain cautious of the volatility associated with ongoing investigations and regulatory actions [22][34]

Group 1 - The Chinese government has extended the personal income tax refund policy for home purchases until December 31, 2027, which aims to stimulate the real estate market by allowing tax refunds based on the sale and purchase amounts of properties [3][3][3] - The U.S. State Department announced a suspension of visa processing for 75 countries, effective January 21, as part of a reevaluation of screening and review processes [3][3][3] - The U.S. has imposed a 25% tariff on certain imported semiconductors and related products, effective January 15, as part of its trade policy [4][4][4] Group 2 - OpenAI has signed a three-year agreement with Cerebras to procure up to 750 megawatts of computing power, with the total deal exceeding $10 billion, focusing on AI chip technology [7][8][8] - Skild AI has completed a $1.4 billion financing round, raising its valuation to over $14 billion, with participation from major investors including SoftBank and Nvidia [25][25] - Proxima, an AI biotechnology company, has secured $80 million in seed funding, led by DCVC, to advance its research and development efforts [26][26][26] Group 3 - The Chinese smartphone market is projected to see Huawei regain the top position by 2025, with an estimated total shipment of 285 million units, reflecting a slight decline of 0.6% year-on-year [22][22][22] - The private equity firm, Huanfang Quantitative, reported a 56.6% average return in 2025, with assets under management exceeding 70 billion yuan, making it one of the leading quantitative hedge funds in China [6][6][6] - Ctrip is under investigation for alleged monopolistic practices, with the company stating it will cooperate fully with regulatory authorities [13][13][13]

经济观察网 1月14日，国家市场监督管理总局通报，近日，市场监管总局根据前期核查，依据《中华人 民共和国反垄断法》，对携程集团有限公司涉嫌滥用市场支配地位实施垄断行为立案调查。 对此，携程集团表示，公司将积极配合监管部门调查，全面落实监管要求，与行业各方携手共建可持续 发展的市场环境。目前，公司各项业务均正常运行，将一如既往地为广大用户和合作伙伴提供优质的服 务。 ...

Market Overview - The commercial aerospace sector experienced a collective adjustment, with companies like Tongyu Communication and Fenghuo Communication hitting the daily limit down, while Jili Rigging fell over 8% [1] - The A-share market opened lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.48%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.63%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.93% [1][2] - The AI application sector saw a decline, with CRO, commercial aerospace, brain-computer interface, nuclear fusion, and Yushu Robotics concepts leading the losses [2] Company Specifics - Tianpu Co. opened near the daily limit down after receiving an inquiry letter from the Shanghai Stock Exchange regarding its main business and executive qualifications [2] - Ctrip Group's stock fell nearly 15% following an investigation by the market regulatory authority, while other companies like Tongcheng Travel and Xpeng Motors also saw declines of over 2% [4][6] Index Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index was at 4106.22, down 19.87 points or 0.48% [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index was at 14158.66, down 89.94 points or 0.63% [2] - The ChiNext Index was at 3318.11, down 31.03 points or 0.93% [2] - The Science and Technology Innovation Index was at 1818.17, down 17.24 points or 0.94% [2]

Market Overview - On January 15, A-shares opened lower, with the ChiNext index turning positive after a near 1% drop, while the Shenzhen Component index turned red. By the time of reporting, the Shanghai Composite index was down 0.2%, the Shenzhen Component index was up 0.21%, and the ChiNext index was up 0.23% [1] Sector Performance - The tourism sector rebounded collectively, with Zhongxin Tourism achieving a second consecutive limit-up. Other stocks such as Junting Hotel, Shaanxi Tourism, China Youth Travel, Jinjiang Hotel, and ShouLai Hotel also saw gains [2] - The photovoltaic sector opened low but recovered, with Tuori New Energy also achieving a second consecutive limit-up [1] Focus Stocks - Sunflower faced a significant drop, hitting a 20% limit down due to negative impacts from a terminated restructuring, with a sealed order amounting to approximately 250 million yuan [1] Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities indicated that despite recent regulatory measures to cool the market and prevent overheating risks, the overall trading activity in the equity market remains at historically high levels. Key indicators such as average daily trading volume and margin financing balances are above long-term averages, suggesting that securities firms are likely to continue benefiting [4] - CITIC Jiantou noted that the global interest rate cut cycle is entering its second half in 2026, with macro liquidity characterized by "internal and external easing resonance." The depreciation of the dollar and appreciation of the yuan are expected to support A-share strength [5] - Huatai Securities reported that the innovative drug sector is experiencing a liquidity recovery, with significant growth in BD transactions compared to the same period last year, indicating a potential bullish trend in the innovative drug market [6] -招商证券 suggested that the chemical industry may see marginal improvements in profitability as outdated production capacity is expected to be eliminated, following a period of price declines in chemical products [7]

Market Overview - On January 15, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index opened down 0.10%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.55% [1] - The Hang Seng Index is currently at 26,972.36, down by 27.45 points [2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index stands at 5,875.78, decreasing by 32.48 points [2] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index is at 9,305.13, down by 10.43 points [2] - The Hang Seng Composite Index is at 4,151.02, down by 2.24 points [2] Sector Performance - Real estate, transportation, and food & beverage sectors showed the highest gains, while steel, semiconductors, and media sectors experienced the largest declines [1] - Ctrip Group opened down nearly 15% and has since fallen over 20% due to an investigation by the State Administration for Market Regulation regarding alleged monopolistic behavior [1] Company Specifics - Ctrip Group is cooperating with regulatory authorities and ensuring normal operations across its business [1] - In the tech sector, JD Health rose nearly 3%, and Baidu Group increased by nearly 1%, while Tongcheng Travel and Xpeng Motors fell over 2% [4] - JD Health is currently priced at 71.70, reflecting a 2.94% increase, while Baidu Group is at 146.40, up by 0.90% [6]

Market Overview - The technology sector in the US stock market has experienced a sell-off, leading to two consecutive days of decline [1] - Silver prices have dropped below $93, while crude oil has seen a significant decline [1] Hong Kong Stock Market - The three major indices in Hong Kong opened lower, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.1%, the National Index down by 0.11%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index down by 0.55% [1] - Major technology stocks showed minor fluctuations, with Baidu, Meituan, and JD.com each rising by less than 1%, while Tencent and Alibaba experienced declines [1] Sector Performance - AI application stocks, which had shown strong performance previously, mostly declined, and wind power stocks continued to fall due to ongoing investigations [1] - Ctrip's stock fell nearly 3% [1] - Positive policy developments in the industry have led to increased activity in the autonomous driving sector, with stocks like Youjia Innovation and Zhejiang Shibao (002703) seeing significant gains [1] - AI healthcare stocks remain active in the market [1] Index Performance - Hang Seng Technology Index: -0.55%, latest price at 5875.78, year-to-date change of 6.52% [1] - National Index: -0.11%, latest price at 9305.13, year-to-date change of 4.39% [1] - Hang Seng Index: -0.10%, latest price at 26972.36, year-to-date change of 5.24% [1]

Group 1 - Ctrip Group-S (09961.HK) opened nearly 15% lower and is currently down 14.98%, trading at HKD 484.2 [2] - The trading volume reached HKD 394 million [2]