公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 科技新闻网站《wccftech》报导，台积电2纳米投片（tape-out）量已达3纳米制程的1.5倍，苹果、 高通与联发科是主要客户。分析师指出，台积电2纳米制程的空前需求，使台积电在人工智能（AI） 加速器市场上维持95%市占率。 报导说，今年下半年，台积电2纳米制程的量产芯片将上市。联发科宣布，已于去年完成其首款2纳米 制程系统单芯片（SoC）的投片。如同这家台湾IC设计公司，一些其他客户也排队下单台积电新一代 制程，最新消息指出，台积电2纳米制程的投片量已是3纳米制程的1.5倍，显示其需求十分强劲。 知名半导体爆料人士@jukan05分享摩根大通的报告指出，台积电2纳米制程需求动能强劲，投片量是 3纳米制程的1.5倍。拜2纳米时代来临之赐，台积电预料在AI加速器市场，仍维持逾95%的市占率。 即使是英特尔，也在其自家产品中增加采用台积电2纳米制程。英特尔近期才在拉斯维加斯举行的消 费性电子展（CES）上，首度展示采用其18A技术的Panther Lake Core Ultra系列3芯片。 报导说，由于AI狂潮，预定今年底，台积电2纳米制程晶圆的月产量将达1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming week is characterized as a "super week" for global capital markets, with significant macroeconomic data and corporate earnings reports expected to heighten market volatility. Key focus areas include inflation dynamics, corporate earnings validation, and geopolitical developments [3]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. is set to release the December CPI data on January 13, with expectations of a notable rebound, attributed to statistical distortions from the government shutdown rather than genuine inflationary pressures [5][6]. - China's December import and export data will be released on January 14, with forecasts indicating a 3.0% year-on-year increase in exports (down from 5.9% in November) and a 2.9% decline in imports (down from a 1.9% decrease in November) [4]. Corporate Earnings - Major U.S. banks, including JPMorgan Chase, will kick off the earnings season, with a focus on the health of the financial system amid high interest rates. Additionally, TSMC's earnings report is anticipated to serve as a bellwether for the global AI supply chain [3][9]. - TSMC is expected to report revenues of approximately NT$1.011 trillion for Q4 2025, with earnings per share projected at NT$2.72, highlighting its role as a key player in AI chip manufacturing [8]. Geopolitical and Industry Developments - The U.S. government faces an increased risk of shutdown as funding runs low, with a critical funding bill set to be reviewed by the Senate. This situation could significantly impact market sentiment and economic stability [13]. - The G7 finance ministers will meet to discuss rare earth issues, reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions and industry dynamics [13]. - Canadian Prime Minister is scheduled to visit China from January 13 to 17, marking a significant diplomatic engagement focused on trade and energy discussions [13].

Core Viewpoint - Asian technology stocks are outperforming their U.S. counterparts, driven by strong fundamentals and attractive valuations, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 6% compared to the Nasdaq 100's 2% rise [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Investors are shifting from high-valued U.S. tech stocks to undervalued Asian tech stocks, reflecting a change in risk-return preferences [2] - The MSCI Asia Pacific Information Technology Index has a forward P/E ratio of 16.3, significantly lower than the Nasdaq 100 and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which are around 25 [2] - Fund managers are increasingly allocating to Asian tech stocks, with demand from various types of funds flowing into markets like South Korea and Hong Kong [2] Group 2: Earnings Growth Potential - Higher earnings growth potential is a key driver of bullish sentiment, with expected EPS growth of 79% for South Korean stocks and 36% for Taiwanese stocks over the next 12 months, compared to 28% for Nasdaq-listed companies [3] - Major Asian tech stocks, including TSMC, Samsung, and SK Hynix, have seen price increases between 8% and 16% this year, with Hua Hong Semiconductor exceeding a 20% rise [3] Group 3: Chinese Tech Recovery - The Chinese market is crucial for Asian tech investments, with expectations of significant earnings growth for Chinese tech giants in 2026, potentially surpassing the U.S. "Big Seven" for the first time since 2022 [4] - The enthusiasm for Chinese tech is bolstered by advancements in AI, with new companies like Minimax and Zhiyu AI recently going public [4] Group 4: AI Investment Landscape - The North Asian tech ecosystem is positioned at the forefront of the global AI growth trend, with significant investments expected from major tech companies [5] - Concerns are rising regarding the potential for an AI bubble, as capital expenditures from companies like Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta are projected to increase by 34% to approximately $440 billion next year [5]

Core Insights - The technology sector is experiencing a renaissance, with nine companies valued at over $1 trillion, primarily driven by the demand for AI applications [1] - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is highlighted as a leading semiconductor stock and a unique investment opportunity due to its pivotal role in AI chip manufacturing [2][4] Company Overview - TSMC is the largest chip manufacturer globally, controlling nearly 70% of the market share and has diversified its supply chain with facilities in Germany, Japan, and Arizona [4] - The company has a market capitalization of $1.7 trillion, with a current stock price of $323.63 and a gross margin of 57.75% [7] Market Dynamics - Capital expenditures for AI data centers are projected to reach $450 billion globally by 2026, with the addressable market potentially rising to $1 trillion in two years [8] - At least half of the AI infrastructure spending is expected to be allocated to next-generation chips, indicating a steep revenue trajectory for TSMC [9] Investment Potential - TSMC's stock has appreciated significantly, with an investment of $50,000 at the start of the AI revolution now worth over four times that amount [11] - The company is positioned as a "pick-and-shovel" opportunity in the AI chip market, making it a safer investment compared to individual chip designers or AI developers [14]

Core Viewpoint - TSMC is expected to hold a corporate briefing on January 15, where its 2026 outlook and capital expenditure plans will be significant indicators for the tech industry [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - TSMC's revenue for December exceeded expectations, contributing to a total revenue of NT$38,090.5 billion for 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 31.6% and setting a historical high [2] - The revenue for the fourth quarter reached NT$10,460.8 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.7% and a year-on-year increase of 20.5%, achieving a new single-quarter record [1] Group 2: Market Demand and Pricing - Analysts predict that TSMC's advanced process technology will remain in high demand, with major clients pre-booking capacity, leading to potential price increases of 3% to 10% for advanced processes starting in 2026 [2] - Despite the proposed price increases, clients are still eager to secure advanced process capacity, indicating ongoing strong demand in the AI sector [2] Group 3: Capital Expenditure - TSMC's capital expenditure for 2026 is projected to remain at historically high levels, potentially reaching between US$42 billion and US$45 billion [2] - The company aims to ensure that revenue growth outpaces capital expenditure growth, demonstrating a commitment to financial discipline [2]

Group 1 - The Medical-Biomed/Biotech industry group saw a significant surge in 2025, achieving nearly a 34% gain by the end of the year [4] - The stock market is experiencing a strong, broad advance, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 reaching record highs [5][6] - Major companies like Google and Shopify are highlighted as significant winners in 2025, indicating a positive market trend [5] Group 2 - The upcoming earnings season is anticipated to be impactful, with key companies such as JPMorgan and Delta set to report [8][10] - The Nasdaq is currently underperforming due to a rotation in technology stocks, particularly affecting Nvidia and other AI-related companies [10] - There is a notable demand for certain stocks, which is described as "mere peanuts" compared to three other highlighted stocks, suggesting a shift in investor interest [10]

Core Viewpoint - The artificial intelligence ASICs market is experiencing significant growth, with top stocks in this sector recommended for investment in January 2026 [1] Group 1: Broadcom - Broadcom is positioned to continue its strong performance from 2025, becoming a leading provider of custom ASICs for AI applications [2] - Major tech companies are shifting from Nvidia's GPUs to Broadcom's ASICs to reduce costs associated with AI workloads, with Broadcom assisting Alphabet in designing its tensor processing units (TPUs) [3] - Analysts predict Broadcom's AI revenue could increase fivefold from approximately $20 billion in the last fiscal year to $100 billion by fiscal 2027 [6] Group 2: Alphabet - Alphabet has a significant lead in custom AI chips, having developed TPUs over a decade ago, which are now integral to its internal operations and product offerings [6] - Alphabet's TPUs are cost-effective for training large language models, with a notable $21 billion order from Anthropic for TPUs to be used in Google Cloud [7] - Morgan Stanley estimates that Alphabet could generate around $13 billion in revenue for every 500,000 TPUs deployed, with projections of deploying 5 million TPUs in 2027 and 7 million in 2028 [9] Group 3: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) - TSMC plays a crucial role in the AI infrastructure by manufacturing nearly all advanced AI chips, including both GPUs and ASICs [11] - The company maintains strong relationships with Nvidia and Broadcom, working to increase manufacturing capacity to meet rising demand [12] - TSMC's pricing power is robust, with new 2nm technology priced 50% higher than the previous 3nm technology, and customers have been notified of price increases over the next four years [15]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][41]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant advancements in AI and semiconductor sectors, particularly with NVIDIA's launch of the Vera Rubin platform, which includes various high-performance computing products designed to meet advanced model requirements and reduce computing costs [4][7]. - Samsung Electronics reported a substantial increase in Q4 2025 operating profit, reaching 20 trillion KRW, a year-on-year growth of 208.2%, driven by surging AI demand and rising global memory chip prices [8][9]. - TSMC's revenue for December 2025 was approximately 335 billion TWD, marking a year-on-year increase of 20.4%, benefiting from strong AI demand for advanced processes and packaging [9]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - NVIDIA introduced several new products at CES 2026, including the Vera Rubin POD AI supercomputer and Spectrum-X Ethernet co-packaged optical devices, which are designed to enhance performance and efficiency in AI applications [7][8]. - Samsung's strategy has shifted towards high-margin products like HBM and DDR5, leading to significant price increases in memory products, with DDR5 prices rising by 307% since September 2025 [9][22]. Market Review - The electronic industry saw a weekly increase of 7.74% from January 5 to January 9, 2026, with all sub-sectors in the electronics industry showing positive performance [10][13]. High-Frequency Data Tracking - Memory prices have shown an upward trend, with DDR5 16G prices increasing from $30.544 to $31.781 between January 5 and January 9, 2026 [22]. - Panel prices for TVs are expected to see a mild increase in January 2026 due to supply constraints and rising material costs [17][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for the semiconductor industry driven by AI advancements, recommending a focus on the entire semiconductor supply chain, including key companies like SMIC and Huahong [37]. - It also highlights the storage industry, recommending companies such as Zhaoyi Innovation and Demingli, as well as AI PCB industry players like Shenghong Technology and Huitian Technology [37].

回顾整个过程，这简直是一场逐步走向深渊的闹剧。最初在2020年，台积电计划投资120亿美元建立一个工厂，以稍微应对美国的压力。但到了2025年，特 朗普的胃口逐渐膨胀，他将投资额硬生生推到了1650亿美元。这是一笔真金白银！特朗普认为这是他用关税威胁换来的美国芯片重生。他甚至在工厂为苹果 生产4纳米芯片时，称其为伟大的里程碑。然而，现实却给了他一记响亮的耳光。2025年第四季度财报显示，台积电在亚利桑那州的工厂单季亏损超过20亿 美元，而同期，台湾本土工厂的净利润已经突破了80亿美元。两者的对比简直如天壤之别，一边是滚滚利润，另一边则是持续亏损。这哪里是在进行产业升 级？这分明是将一只下金蛋的母鸡，硬生生地扔进了绞肉机。 为了推动制造业回流美国，实现让美国再次伟大的目标，特朗普对台积电施加了巨大的压力。从最初的威胁和诱导，到后来加征关税的强硬手段，最终将台 积电逼进了美国亚利桑那州的沙漠。 从表面来看，这似乎是一场美国获得的大胜利。台积电的投资额一路攀升，从最初的几百亿美元增加到1650亿美元，最先进的2nm工艺也被搬到了美国。然 而，特朗普在社交媒体上得意洋洋，几乎想用喇叭把这场胜利宣布给全世界：看，这就是 ...

公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 在本文中，戈登向台积电提出了一系列关于其下一步发展方向的问题。 台积电成立于 1987 年，开创了纯晶圆代工业务，如今已成为全球领先的专业半导体代工厂。 我们最近就该公司下一步计划提出了一系列问题。该公司发言人拒绝回答我们所有的问题，但他们回 答的几个问题却为我们提供了关于半导体技术和行业的一些有趣见解。 Gordon Feller：台积电预计在向 2nm 以下工艺技术过渡的过程中会有哪些突破或障碍？ 台积电：我们在2纳米制程节点上引入的最大创新是纳米片晶体管结构，也称为环栅晶体管。这是一 项重大进步，因为这是我们历史上第二次采用全新的晶体管结构，也是自2014年16纳米制程节点从 平面晶体管过渡到FinFET晶体管以来的首次。经过多年的技术挑战，台积电将于今年年底前实现2纳 米制程的量产。 我们将在 A16（1.6nm 级）节点上采用另一项重大创新——超强电源轨（Super Power Rail），即我 们的背面供电技术。背面供电轨架构通过将正面布线资源专用于信号传输，并将电源布线移至背面， 从而提高了逻辑密度和性能。这种结构使 A16 成为具有复杂信号布线和 ...