Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the industry [7]. Core Insights - The demand for advanced process technology will be driven more by autonomous driving and embodied intelligence than by AI GPUs, which are currently receiving significant attention due to the rise of AI models like ChatGPT and DeepSeek [2][3]. - The report emphasizes that the die size of autonomous driving SoCs is comparable to that of AI GPUs, but the terminal volume for autonomous driving is several times greater, leading to a much higher demand for advanced process capacity [3][4]. - The combined future demand for advanced process capacity from autonomous driving and embodied intelligence is projected to be approximately 165,000 wafers per month, significantly exceeding the current capacities of major players like TSMC [4]. Summary by Sections Perspective on Wafer Capacity - Autonomous driving SoCs have a die size close to that of AI GPUs, but the terminal volume for autonomous driving is expected to be ten times that of AI GPUs [15][32]. - The value contribution of wafer manufacturing to AI GPU production is only 2.25%, indicating that the demand for AI GPUs does not significantly drive wafer capacity [15][16]. - The report estimates that global demand for advanced process capacity from autonomous driving will reach 136,200 wafers per month, while AI GPUs will require only 39,700 wafers per month [4][36]. Application Scenario Perspective - Autonomous driving chips are viewed as equivalent to the brain chips of robots, suggesting that both sectors should be analyzed together for advanced process demand [3][4]. - The report cites Tesla's vision of producing billions of robots, indicating a potential market size that could rival or exceed that of smartphones [3][4]. Disruption of Downstream Structure - The growth of autonomous driving and embodied intelligence is expected to disrupt the existing downstream structure of advanced process applications, with these sectors becoming the primary consumers of wafer capacity [3][4]. - The report highlights that the combined demand from autonomous driving and embodied intelligence could require the equivalent of 3.25 times TSMC's current advanced process capacity [4][42]. Investment Highlights - The report suggests that the demand from autonomous driving and embodied intelligence will lead to a wave of capacity expansion in advanced processes [4][5]. - The slowing of Moore's Law indicates that the growth in chip performance will increasingly rely on scaling up production rather than technological breakthroughs [4][5].

Group 1 - The article discusses the macroeconomic outlook for the U.S., suggesting a "big fiscal + loose monetary" environment leading to inflation, similar to the pandemic and Biden's era, requiring a compliant Federal Reserve for low interest rates [1][4] - U.S. federal debt has surged to nearly $30 trillion, up from $17 trillion in 2019, with net interest rates increasing from 2.4% to 3.6%, indicating a heavy debt burden [1][4] - The combination of increased revenue from tariffs and reduced interest payments could free up approximately $650 billion for federal finances, potentially offsetting new deficits from the "big beautiful plan" starting in 2026 [6][4] Group 2 - The article highlights the importance of the upcoming earnings season for U.S. stocks, particularly focusing on tech companies with significant overseas revenue, which may benefit from a weaker dollar [10][16] - The U.S. Treasury is expected to issue short-term treasury bills to raise cash, with a target to increase the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance to $5 trillion by the end of July [10][11] - The performance of the stock market may face downward pressure if the earnings outlook is not strong, especially if the Federal Reserve does not unexpectedly lower interest rates [11][14] Group 3 - Key earnings reports to watch include ASML, TSMC, and Netflix, with specific focus areas such as revenue performance, market outlook, and subscription growth [16][17] - ASML's earnings will be scrutinized for revenue and gross margin performance, as well as insights on the semiconductor manufacturing sector [17] - Netflix's report will be important for understanding subscription revenue growth and future pricing strategies [17]

Group 1: Company Performance - GE Aerospace's stock has increased over 50% year to date and over 300% in the last three years [1] - Taiwan Semiconductor's stock has gained 15% year to date and over 160% in the last three years [1] Group 2: Earnings Expectations - GE Aerospace's Q2 earnings are expected to rise 19% to $1.43 per share, with sales projected to climb 18% to $9.7 billion [3] - Taiwan Semiconductor's Q2 EPS is anticipated to increase 60% to $2.37, with sales expected to grow 44% to $30.04 billion [5] Group 3: Earnings Surprises - GE Aerospace has surpassed the Zacks EPS Consensus for 10 consecutive quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 17.97% [4] - Taiwan Semiconductor has exceeded earnings expectations for 18 consecutive quarters, with an average EPS surprise of 6.91% [7] Group 4: Future Estimates - FY25 and FY26 EPS estimates for GE Aerospace and Taiwan Semiconductor have trended higher over the last 60 days [8]

Core Viewpoint - The global semiconductor market is expected to grow by 19.7% in 2024, primarily driven by memory and logic devices, while other sectors are struggling [2][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The global semiconductor market is experiencing a bifurcation between logic ICs and memory, with logic ICs growing rapidly and memory being more susceptible to economic fluctuations [3][5]. - Demand for semiconductors is increasingly driven by data centers, particularly due to the rise of AI applications, which require high-speed data processing [5][6]. Group 2: Japan's Semiconductor Industry Challenges - Japan's semiconductor production value has stagnated around 5 trillion yen from 2011 to 2020, while its global market share has decreased from 15% to 10% during the same period [7][9]. - Major Japanese semiconductor companies have ceased capital investments in logic and memory sectors, leading to a lack of growth in domestic production [9][10]. Group 3: Future Projections and Goals - Japan's government has set a domestic semiconductor production target of 15 trillion yen by 2030, but this may be unrealistic given the rapid growth of the global market [11][12]. - Even with slight growth, Japan's semiconductor production may only reach around 6 trillion yen by 2024, resulting in a market share drop to approximately 6% [10][11]. Group 4: Policy Recommendations for Japan - Attracting DRAM manufacturers like Samsung or SK Hynix to Japan could help meet the increasing demand for memory driven by AI [13]. - Supporting strong electronic component manufacturers to engage in semiconductor production is essential for revitalizing the industry [15]. - Implementing incentives for semiconductor design could stimulate innovation and application of AI technologies within Japan [16].

Core Viewpoint - Broadcom's cancellation of its $1 billion investment in an ATP factory in Spain highlights the challenges and shifting priorities in the European semiconductor landscape, reflecting a broader trend of reduced investment from major chip manufacturers in the region [3][4][5][19]. Investment Trends - Broadcom's decision to cancel the ATP factory project is indicative of a trend where leading chip manufacturers are revising and scaling back their investment plans in Europe [5]. - Intel has postponed its chip factory plans in Germany and other companies like Wolfspeed and ZF Friedrichshafen AG have also halted expansion plans in Germany [5]. - Despite setbacks, companies like TSMC and Infineon are still pursuing investments in Europe, with TSMC planning a chip design center in Munich and a $11 billion semiconductor manufacturing plant in Dresden [5]. European Semiconductor Strategy - The EU's ambitious Chip Act aims to double its global semiconductor market share to 20% by 2030, supported by over €43 billion in public and private funding [8][9]. - However, the European Court of Auditors has pointed out significant discrepancies in funding, with only about 5% of the announced total being directly managed by the EU Commission [10][12]. - The fragmented financial model has led to a lack of coordination among member states, making the EU's strategic goals difficult to achieve [12]. Spain's Semiconductor Initiatives - Spain launched the PERTE Chip project, a €12.25 billion public investment initiative aimed at enhancing its semiconductor value chain, primarily funded by EU pandemic recovery funds [15]. - While the project has made some progress in strengthening existing technological capabilities, it has struggled to attract large semiconductor manufacturing plants, with analysts describing the goal as "utopian" in the short term [16]. Geopolitical Influences - The failure of Broadcom's project in Spain underscores how external geopolitical factors, particularly U.S. trade policies, can disrupt European industrial initiatives [19]. - The U.S. CHIPS and Science Act has catalyzed over $500 billion in private investment domestically, creating a competitive environment for the EU's semiconductor ambitions [19]. North-South Investment Disparities - There is a clear north-south divide in European semiconductor investments, with capital-intensive projects predominantly flowing to established industrial centers in northern Europe, while southern Europe attracts smaller, targeted projects [21]. - Spain's experience illustrates the limitations of subsidy-driven industrial policies, as it has failed to secure major investments despite having one of the largest national subsidy funds in Europe [21][22].

Core Insights - TSMC has secured a significant client for its 2nm process, with Intel reportedly entrusting the Nova Lake-S desktop processor to TSMC for manufacturing, expected to enter mass production in Q3 2026 [1][2] - The collaboration between Intel and TSMC continues to evolve, with Nova Lake-S being the first processor from Intel to utilize TSMC's 2nm technology, following previous partnerships for 3nm processes [2] TSMC Developments - TSMC is set to hold an earnings call on July 17, 2023, amidst a quiet period prior to the event [1] - TSMC's stock price fell by 5 New Taiwan Dollars to 1,095 New Taiwan Dollars on July 14, 2023, with a subsequent ADR decline of approximately 0.8% [1] Intel Developments - The Nova Lake-S processor is anticipated to feature multiple versions for both desktop and laptop applications, with the high-end variant expected to include 52 cores, comprising 16 performance cores (P-core) and 32 efficiency cores (E-core) [2] - Nova Lake-S will integrate advanced storage controllers capable of supporting speeds up to 8,800 MT/s, with GPU functionalities provided by the Xe3 Celestial architecture and media decoding managed by the Xe4 Druid architecture [2] Market Implications - The addition of Intel as a client for TSMC's 2nm process is expected to enhance TSMC's order volume, following interest from other major companies like Apple, NVIDIA, AMD, Qualcomm, and MediaTek [1] - The flexibility in production offered by TSMC's 2nm process may mitigate potential delays or shortages in chip supply that could arise from Intel's own manufacturing constraints [1]

Core Viewpoint - Technology stock valuations are at all-time highs, but there are undervalued opportunities, particularly in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) [1][2][3] Company Overview - TSMC specializes in fabrication and foundry services, holding a 68% share of the global wafer foundry market [5][6] - The company plays a crucial role in the semiconductor supply chain, supporting major players like Nvidia and AMD [4][6] Market Trends - The total addressable market for semiconductors is projected to reach $996 billion by 2033, up from $530 billion two years ago [8] - The semiconductor foundry market is expected to grow at an 8.5% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2024 to 2033, reaching $276 billion [8] - AI infrastructure spending could approach $7 trillion by the middle of the next decade, with chips and related hardware for AI data centers receiving nearly half of this investment [9] Growth Prospects - Rising demand for chips is a direct tailwind for TSMC's foundry business, with analysts forecasting continued revenue and earnings acceleration [11][14] - TSMC's current forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 24.3 indicates it is trading at a discount compared to other leading chip stocks [12][15] Investment Opportunity - TSMC is viewed as a hidden bargain amidst overpriced growth stocks, presenting a compelling buy-and-hold opportunity for long-term investors [16]

Group 1 - Kennedy is a GARP-themed investor focusing on companies with aggressive growth prospects that are expected to become highly profitable within 1-2 years [1] - The investment philosophy emphasizes long-term discipline, consistent alpha generation, and a consideration of risk [1] - The Curious Analyst is an associate of Kennedy Njagi, indicating a collaborative approach in investment analysis [1] Group 2 - The article does not provide specific financial data or performance metrics related to any companies or industries [2]

Group 1: TSMC's Investment and Pricing Strategy - TSMC plans to invest $165 billion in capacity expansion in the U.S., which may increase its chances of tariff exemptions [1] - TSMC's management indicated that potential semiconductor tariffs could suppress electronic product demand and reduce company revenue [1] - Due to inflation and potential tariff costs, TSMC expects profit margins from overseas factories to erode by 3-4 percentage points in the later years of the next five years [1] Group 2: Wafer Pricing and Currency Impact - TSMC is expected to increase wafer prices by 3%-5% globally due to strong demand for advanced processes and structural currency trends [2] - U.S. customers are reportedly locking in higher quotes for 4nm capacity at TSMC's U.S. factories, with plans to raise wafer prices by at least 10% [2] Group 3: 2nm Capacity Expansion - TSMC plans to start mass production of 2nm technology in the second half of 2025, with significant demand anticipated [5] - The projected capacity for 2nm will be 10k wafers per month (kwpm) in 2024, increasing to 40-50 kwpm in 2025, and reaching 90 kwpm by the end of 2026 [5] - Major clients for 2nm technology will include Apple, AMD, and Intel, with Apple expected to adopt the technology in Q4 2025 [5][6] Group 4: AI and Cryptocurrency Demand - By the end of 2026, AI ASICs will begin utilizing 2nm capacity, with increased usage expected in 2027 [6] - The contribution of cloud AI semiconductor business to TSMC's revenue is projected to rise from 13% in 2024 to 25% in 2025, and further to 34% by 2027 [12] Group 5: B30 GPU and Market Demand - TSMC's Blackwell chip production is expected to align with the demand from NVL72 server rack shipments, with a projected shipment of 30,000 racks in 2025 [10] - The design of the Chinese version of the B30 GPU is anticipated to be similar to the RTX PRO 6000, with demand continuing to grow [12] - If the B30 can be sold in China, it could account for 20% of TSMC's revenue growth in 2026 [12]

Core Viewpoint - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (TSM) is expected to exceed earnings expectations for Q2 2025, with a projected EPS of $2.37, reflecting a 60.1% year-over-year increase [1][6]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TSM's Q2 earnings is $2.37 per share, revised upward by 3 cents over the past week [1][2]. - Revenue expectations for TSM are between $28.4 billion and $29.2 billion, with the consensus estimate at $30.04 billion, indicating a 44.3% increase from the previous year [2][5]. Earnings Surprise History - TSM has a strong earnings surprise history, having outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the last four quarters with an average beat of 6.9% [3]. Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank - TSM has an Earnings ESP of +3.25%, indicating a favorable outlook for earnings performance [4]. - The company holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), suggesting positive market sentiment [4]. Industry Dynamics - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a rebound driven by the increasing demand for artificial intelligence (AI) applications, which is a significant growth catalyst for TSM [5][6]. - TSM's leadership in advanced chip technologies, particularly in 3nm and 5nm processes, is expected to contribute to its growth [6][8]. Strategic Investments - TSM is investing heavily in next-generation technologies, with a capital expenditure forecast of $38 billion to $42 billion for 2025, focusing on advanced manufacturing processes [20]. - The company is expanding into high-performance computing (HPC) and smartphone sectors, which are anticipated to enhance its performance [8][9]. Market Position and Valuation - TSM shares have increased by 16.7% year-to-date, outperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology sector's 7.4% rise [11]. - TSM is trading at a forward 12-month P/E of 22.48X, lower than the sector average of 27.39X and peers like NVIDIA and AMD [14][17]. Future Outlook - AI-related revenues for TSM tripled in 2024 and are expected to double again in 2025, with a projected 40% compound annual growth rate over the next five years [19]. - The company's strategic focus on growth opportunities is likely to continue boosting its financial performance [20][21].