Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of core values such as excellence, integrity, transparency, and respect for long-term success in the investment sector [1]. Group 1 - The author identifies as a full-time investor with a strong focus on the tech sector and holds a Bachelor of Commerce Degree with Distinction, majoring in Finance [1]. - The author is a lifetime member of the Beta Gamma Sigma International Business Honor Society, indicating a commitment to academic excellence [1]. - The article invites readers to provide constructive criticism and feedback to enhance the quality of future work [1]. Group 2 - The author discloses having no stock, option, or similar derivative positions in any mentioned companies and has no plans to initiate such positions within the next 72 hours [1]. - The article expresses the author's personal opinions and states that no compensation is received for the article, except from Seeking Alpha [1].

Core Viewpoint - TSMC has been identified as the largest "risk" factor in the global AI supply chain due to its conservative early predictions regarding AI demand, despite its dominant position in the semiconductor foundry sector [1] Group 1: TSMC's Position and Challenges - TSMC's CEO has shown caution towards large-scale construction, leading to insufficient early investments and resulting in a severe supply shortage [2] - The impact of capacity bottlenecks has spread from chip manufacturers to downstream hyperscalers, with companies like Nvidia and AMD facing extended delivery cycles [2] - Major tech companies such as Microsoft, Google, and Meta are currently unable to secure guaranteed delivery schedules, with Microsoft's Maia 200 AI chip facing significant supply constraints [2] Group 2: Financial Implications and Production Capacity - Analysts warn that the current risks could translate into revenue losses amounting to billions of dollars for hyperscale operators [2] - In addition to wafer manufacturing, the shortage of advanced packaging capacity is another critical issue, with TSMC's CoWoS technology being the preferred solution for AI chip manufacturing [2] - TSMC plans to increase capital expenditures to $56 billion this year to alleviate pressure, but it is unlikely to meet the surging market demand in the short term [2] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Competitors like Intel Foundry and Samsung are attempting to enter the AI chip manufacturing space, but manufacturers remain hesitant to switch from TSMC due to the irreplaceable supply chain ecosystem and trust established by TSMC [4]

January 27, 2026 10:15 PM GMT Asia-Pacific Technology | Asia Pacific AI Supply Chain: TPU/ASIC updates; ICMS NAND demand calculation We sense that AI semi vendors have started securing critical 2027 components – T-Glass/ABF, HBM, and TSMC 3nm – (e.g., MediaTek's 3nm TPU). Downgrade Egis to EW, as its 2026 appears to be shaping up as a year of transition. ASIC – Volume upside for MediaTek's 3nm TPU project in 2027: In our Target Price Up report, we highlighted the supply chain's bull case of 6-7mn TPU units ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global economy has passed its peak and is on a downward trend due to consecutive wrong policies in the US [4]. - The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine and global contraction will have a profound and disruptive impact on major asset classes such as the global economy, US Treasuries, US stocks, the US dollar, precious metals, and industrial metals [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Economic News - Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio warns that the US is like a powder keg on the verge of civil war, having deeply entered the "pre - collapse stage" and at risk of entering the sixth stage marked by the collapse of the existing order [1]. - Emerging market stock and bond ETFs have seen a total of $6.83 billion in capital inflows, with Chinese - related ETFs being the most favored. $1.65 billion flowed into the Chinese market last week [1]. - Guoxing Aerospace has deployed the Tongyi Qianwen Qwen3 large - model to the "Star Computing" Plan 01 group space computing center, the world's first deployment of a general large - model to an orbiting satellite [1]. - Microsoft has released its second - generation self - developed AI chip Maia 200, marking significant progress in its self - developed chip field [1]. - NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang announced the launch of the server CPU "Vera" to solve the CPU bottleneck in the AI supply chain [1]. - If the imbalance between supply and demand of memory chips persists until the first half of 2027, it may be an opportunity for Chinese manufacturers to narrow the technological gap [1]. - Samsung and SK Hynix doubled the price of low - power DRAM supplied to Apple in Q1, and prices may rise further in the second half of the year [1]. - Zijin Mining acquired Allied Gold for $28 billion, with Allied Gold having 533 tons of gold resources as of the end of 2024 [1]. Global Economic Logic - The US is facing a high risk of civil war, and the global political order has entered a chaotic period, bringing great uncertainty to the global economy [2]. - There are speculations about the possibility of a "Plaza Accord 2.0", and the uncertainty of the Fed is expected to peak from July to November 2026, which may lead to a "flight from US assets" [2]. - The Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December and purchase $40 billion in short - term bonds monthly, restarting the expansion of its balance sheet [2]. - The decline in gambling revenue in Las Vegas is similar to the early warning signal before the 2008 financial crisis [2]. - The US will adjust its economic relations with China and revive its economic autonomy [2]. - The K - shaped differentiation of consumers in the US is intensifying, with high - income consumers maintaining spending while middle - and low - income families are cutting back [2]. - TSMC's capital expenditure in 2026 is expected to be between $52 billion and $56 billion, a significant increase of 27% - 37% year - on - year, indicating the continued AI boom [2]. - SpaceX hopes to achieve full rocket reusability this year, which will reduce the cost of space access by 100 times [2].

Core Viewpoint - The data center sector is driving significant growth in the power equipment industry, with capital expenditures showing high growth trends, particularly in overseas markets, while domestic giants like Alibaba and Tencent are experiencing a slowdown in capital spending [1][3]. Demand Side - Overseas capital expenditures from major companies reached $99.617 billion in Q3 2025, reflecting an 80.39% year-on-year increase and a 9.54% quarter-on-quarter rise [3]. - Domestic capital expenditures for Alibaba amounted to 31.5 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 80.10% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 18.55%. Alibaba reaffirmed its three-year investment framework of 380 billion yuan, indicating potential for further investment [3]. - Tencent's capital expenditures were 13 billion yuan in Q3 2025, showing a year-on-year decline of 24.05% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 32.05%, with a downward revision of its annual guidance [3]. Supply Chain - NVIDIA reported total revenue of $57.006 billion in Q3 2025, with data center product revenue reaching $51.215 billion, marking a historical peak with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 24.62% and a year-on-year growth of 66.44%, accounting for over 89% of total revenue [4]. - TSMC's revenue for December 2025 was 335 billion new Taiwan dollars, a year-on-year increase of 20.4% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 2.5%, achieving a record high for the same period [4]. - The CPU price index rose to 99.04 in November 2025, up from 98.20 in October, while DRAM spot prices surged from $27.14 on November 17, 2025, to $71.25 by January 23, 2026, reflecting a significant increase of over 178% within two months [4]. - South Korea's semiconductor exports reached $10.73 billion from January 1 to January 20, 2026, representing a substantial year-on-year growth of 70.2% and accounting for 29.5% of total exports, an increase of 9.6 percentage points compared to the previous year [4]. Application Side - The number of models in use is steadily increasing, with token usage from January 13 to January 19, 2026, reaching 7.50 trillion, a slight decrease of 1.96% [5]. - The release of new models such as Grok4Fast, GPT-5nano, and gpt-oss-20B in Q3 2025 led to a decline of over 50% in the price of tokens for models scoring above 40 on the Artificial Analysis intelligence index [5]. Investment Recommendations - The construction of data centers is expected to drive demand for HVDC and SST technologies, with an anticipated global increase of approximately 14 GW in data center installations in 2024. Major cloud providers are expected to maintain high capital expenditures, with TSMC's capital expenditures projected to reach $52-56 billion in 2026, a year-on-year increase of about 30% [6]. - The increasing power density of data center cabinets is likely to enhance the penetration of HVDC and SST technologies, with smart busbars expected to see widespread adoption [6]. - Recommended stocks include Zhongheng Electric (002364), Oulu Tong (300870), Weiteng Electric (688226), and Sunshine Power (300274), with additional attention suggested for Kehua Data (002335), Keda (002518), Kelu Electronics (002121), Magmi Tech (002851), Jinpan Technology (688676), and Sifang Co. (601126) [6].

继苹果之后，英伟达也计划将部分芯片制造业务转向英特尔代工。英伟达预计在2028年推出的Feynman 架构平台将与英特尔合作，这是美国科技巨头在特朗普政府推动"美国制造"目标下调整供应链策略的最 新案例。 据DIGITIMES周三报道，供应链人士透露，英伟达将在与英特尔的合作中采用"量少、低阶、非核 心"的合作策略。GPU核心芯片仍由台积电代工，而I/O芯片则部分采用英特尔18A或预定2028年量产的 14A制程，最后由英特尔EMIB进行先进封装。按先进封装比重计算，英特尔最高约占25%，台积电约 占75%。 这一转变反映出美国科技企业在政治压力、关税威胁和供应链韧性考量下，不得不从高度集中于台积电 的模式转向"多源供应、分散风险"的新策略。除英伟达和苹果外，谷歌、微软、AWS、高通、博通、 超微和特斯拉等企业也在与英特尔洽谈合作。 尽管部分订单分流至英特尔，但业界认为这对台积电"利远大于弊"，有助于降低垄断疑虑、释放政治压 力，同时台积电仍有信心稳固高阶芯片代工大单。 台积电三层战略应对客户分流 目前观察，苹果、英伟达都以代工风险最低的产品渐进式调整。与英特尔洽谈合作的还有谷歌、微软、 AWS、高通、博通、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor capital equipment sector presents a safer investment opportunity compared to data storage stocks, which have seen significant price increases recently. Group 1: Data Storage Stocks - Major players in the data storage sector, including Micron, Western Digital, Seagate, and SanDisk, have reported substantial gains, with SanDisk more than doubling in value since the beginning of the year [1][2]. - Despite a severe shortage of memory products due to data center expansions, the volatility of commodity chip makers makes them risky investments [2][3]. - Potential disruptions from competitors or changes in investment strategies by hyperscalers could negatively impact these stocks [3]. Group 2: Semiconductor Capital Equipment - The semiconductor capital equipment companies, such as ASML, Applied Materials, KLA, and Lam Research, have also seen significant gains, ranging from 29% to 39% since January [5][6]. - These companies are expected to benefit from increased orders as manufacturers ramp up production to address chip shortages [5][6]. - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) plans to invest between $52 billion and $56 billion in capital expenditures for 2023, a 27% to 37% increase from the previous year, indicating strong demand for semiconductor production [7][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - TSMC does not anticipate a balance between supply and demand until 2028 or 2029, suggesting sustained high capital expenditures, which is favorable for capital equipment makers [8]. - The demand for AI semiconductors is driving investments in advanced manufacturing equipment, benefiting companies like ASML [9]. - Micron is also investing heavily in new production facilities, which will create consistent orders for capital equipment suppliers [11][12]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Predictions - Intel's recent poor guidance, despite solid quarterly results, highlights the challenges in meeting chip demand, which could lead to increased business for capital equipment makers [13][14]. - Upcoming earnings reports from major semiconductor capital equipment companies are highly anticipated, with expectations for strong performance, although the high stock prices may lead to volatility [15][16]. - Analysts suggest that if stocks like Lam Research experience a pullback, it could present a buying opportunity for long-term investors [18][19].

Market Performance - On January 27, the US stock indices closed mixed, with strong performance in technology stocks driving the Nasdaq and S&P 500 up. The Dow Jones fell by 0.83% to 49,003.41 points, while the S&P 500 rose by 0.41% to 6,978.6 points, and the Nasdaq increased by 0.91% to 23,817.1 points [1][2]. Technology Sector - Six out of the seven major US technology companies saw stock price increases, with Nvidia and Apple rising over 1%, and Microsoft and Amazon increasing by more than 2%. However, Tesla's stock fell by 0.99%. Tesla's market share in the EU, UK, and EFTA dropped to 3% in December, while BYD's market share was 2.4%. Tesla's pure electric vehicle market share stands at 11.4% [2][3]. Semiconductor Stocks - Most semiconductor stocks experienced gains, with Intel rising by 3.39%, ASML by 2.92%, Broadcom by 2.43%, TSMC by 1.67%, and AMD by 0.26%. ARM saw a slight increase of 0.18%, while Qualcomm's stock fell by 0.96% [3]. Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 0.48%, with many popular Chinese stocks performing well. Notable increases included Huya up nearly 20%, Kingsoft Cloud up 8.77%, Bilibili up 3.43%, Baidu up 1%, Alibaba up 0.79%, NIO up 0.65%, New Oriental up 0.56%, Tencent Music up 0.18%, and Pinduoduo up 0.05% [3]. Commodity Market - International oil prices surged, with US oil closing nearly 3% higher on January 27 and continuing to rise slightly on January 28. Brent crude oil also saw an increase of over 3% on January 27 [3]. Precious Metals - On January 28, spot gold prices slightly declined, while silver experienced a significant drop of 1%. In less than a month, both London spot silver and COMEX silver futures have seen year-to-date increases exceeding 50%. According to Guoyuan Futures, industrial demand for silver is expected to stabilize and decline by 2026, but physical investment demand is anticipated to expand, suggesting that precious metal prices may continue to strengthen [4]. Cryptocurrency Market - Cryptocurrencies saw a broad increase, with Bitcoin rising above $89,000, marking a 1.26% increase. Ethereum also rose by 3.18% to $3,018. Other cryptocurrencies like Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin experienced gains as well [5]. Geopolitical Developments - Reports indicate that the CIA is secretly pushing for a "long-term presence" in Venezuela, with plans to influence the country's future under the Trump administration. This may involve creating conditions for US diplomatic actions [6]. Additionally, the US has communicated to Israel its military preparedness regarding Iran, with potential actions expected in the coming months [7]. Consumer Confidence - A preliminary survey by the World Large Enterprises Research Association indicated that the US consumer confidence index dropped significantly from a revised 94.2 in December to 84.5 in January, marking the lowest level since May 2014 [7].

The Nasdaq led US stock futures higher on Wednesday as AI trade fervor spread ahead of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision and earnings from megacap techs. Contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) climbed about 0.9%, while those on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM=F) hovered below the flat line. S&P 500 futures (ES=F) moved up 0.3% on the heels of an all-time closing high. Techs are set to buoy markets again as a surprise record surge in orders for ASML's (ASML) chipmaking machines sto ...

If there was one semiconductor stock that I've truly regretted not adding a lot more into my personal portfolio, it has got to be Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited ( TSMJR Research is an opportunistic investor. I was recognized by TipRanks as a Top Analyst, and also by Seeking Alpha as a "Top Analyst To Follow" for Technology, Software, and Internet, as well as for Growth and GARP. I identify attractive risk/reward opportunities supported by robust price action to potentially generate alpha ...