Core Viewpoint - UBS maintains a long-term bullish outlook on gold, targeting $4,750 per ounce, but raises short-term caution due to insufficient momentum in recent price increases and heightened volatility [1][20]. Group 1: Short-term Concerns - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to the performance of silver, platinum, and palladium rather than independent bullish factors for gold itself [1][11]. - Gold's volatility has surged to levels seen at the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, diminishing its appeal as a "safe haven" asset in private investment portfolios [1][6]. - The relationship between gold and real interest rates has broken down, indicating a potential for price correction in the absence of new market stimuli [1][5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The current gold volatility is linked to historical data suggesting that high volatility often correlates with lower future returns [6]. - The gold-silver ratio has dropped to around 65, historically indicating weaker performance for both gold and silver in the following three months [14]. - UBS highlights that when investors aggressively pursue silver, it often signals an overheated market that requires cooling [16]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term risks, UBS believes conditions for a significant decline (over 20%) in gold prices are not present, as historical patterns show such declines are typically accompanied by decreased stock market volatility and rising credit spreads [17][20]. - Key support factors for gold's long-term bullish trend include central bank purchases, stable ETF inflows, and the undervaluation of gold mining stocks [20][22][27]. - Emerging market central banks, which hold only 7-11% of their reserves in gold, are expected to continue buying during price corrections, providing support for gold prices [20].

Group 1: Commodity Market Movements - Concerns over supply shortages and geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Venezuela, have led to significant movements in the commodity market, with silver rising over 6% and gold nearing $4500 per ounce [1] - The industrial metals market also saw gains, with copper reaching historical highs, driven by strong demand from sectors like electric vehicles and artificial intelligence [1][6] Group 2: Gold Price Forecasts - UBS has raised its gold price target to $5000 per ounce, citing increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability and geopolitical risks [3] - Goldman Sachs predicts gold prices could rise to $4900 per ounce, with potential for even higher prices if political or financial risks escalate [2][3] Group 3: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices have surged, with a closing increase of 7.95% in COMEX silver futures, driven by both safe-haven demand and structural growth in industrial applications [3] - The silver market has been in a state of supply-demand imbalance since 2021, with increasing demand from sectors like electric vehicles and solar panels [3] Group 4: Industrial Metals Supply Concerns - The London Metal Exchange reported a collective rise in industrial metals, with copper prices increasing over 4% due to supply concerns from major mines [6] - Analysts highlight that the copper market is facing a supply crunch, exacerbated by labor strikes and geopolitical tensions, which could lead to a significant market gap [6][7] Group 5: U.S. Tariff Implications - The potential for the U.S. to impose tariffs on copper imports for the electricity and construction sectors has added volatility to the market, with significant increases in copper inventories in the U.S. [7] - UBS notes that the U.S. holds a substantial portion of global copper inventories, but its consumption is low, raising concerns about supply for other regions [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant movements in the commodity market driven by geopolitical tensions, particularly the situation in Venezuela, which has heightened demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver. The outlook for precious metals remains bullish, with major investment banks raising their price targets for gold and silver in 2026. Group 1: Precious Metals Market - Gold prices surged, reaching a high of $4,467 per ounce, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical tensions and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5][6] - UBS raised its gold price target for 2026 to $5,000 per ounce, citing concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability and continued demand for gold as a risk hedge [6] - Silver prices also saw a significant increase, with futures closing up 7.95%, driven by both safe-haven demand and structural growth in industrial applications, particularly in electric vehicles and solar panels [6][7] Group 2: Industrial Metals Market - Industrial metals experienced a collective rise, with copper prices breaking the $13,000 per ton mark, fueled by strong demand from AI data centers and electric vehicles [10][11] - Concerns over supply disruptions from major copper mines, such as the Grasberg mine in Indonesia and labor strikes in Chile, have exacerbated market anxiety regarding copper supply [11][12] - Citigroup analysts predict that global refined copper production will reach 26.9 million tons this year, with a market shortfall of 308,000 tons, emphasizing the need for investment in new copper mining capacity [11][12]

Group 1 - Venezuela's current oil production of approximately 1 million barrels per day accounts for less than 1% of global supply, with key facilities like Jose port and Amuay refinery unaffected, indicating low risk of substantial supply disruption [1][2] - Oil prices in the Asia-Pacific market rebounded slightly, with Brent crude futures rising by 0.3% to $60.92 per barrel and WTI crude futures increasing by 0.2% to $57.43 per barrel, despite concerns over supply surplus [2] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that by 2026, global oil supply will exceed demand by 3.8 million barrels per day, marking a historic oversupply record [2] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the market's focus may shift from concerns over supply disruption to expectations regarding the recovery speed of Venezuela's production capacity and the return of U.S. energy companies to the market [3] - Goldman Sachs maintains its price forecasts for Brent crude at an average of $56 per barrel and WTI at $52 per barrel for 2026, indicating limited short-term impact from Venezuela's situation on oil prices [3] - RBC Capital's commodity research head suggests that a complete lifting of sanctions on Venezuela could potentially release hundreds of thousands of barrels per day within 12 months under an orderly transition [3] Group 3 - The geopolitical uncertainty has increased the appeal of gold and other precious metals as safe-haven assets, leading to a rise in their prices [4] - UBS forecasts that global central bank gold net purchases will reach 950 tons by 2026, up from a previous estimate of 900 tons, indicating strong demand for gold [5] - UBS has raised its target prices for gold in March, June, and September 2026 from $4,500 to $5,000 per ounce, with a slight expected decline to $4,800 per ounce by the end of 2026 [5]

Core Insights - Copper prices are surging due to tighter supplies and a risk-on sentiment in broader markets [1] - Concerns over potential US tariffs have led to increased shipments to the US, impacting global supply dynamics [2] - A strike at the Mantoverde mine in Chile highlights risks to shipments amid rising global demand [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Copper futures in London rallied by up to 3.5%, nearing the previous peak of just below $13,000 per ton [2] - The global refined copper market was estimated to be in surplus in 2025, but US tariffs distorted metal and inventory flows, increasing US imports [5] - Analysts predict a global copper shortage of over 100,000 tons in 2026 due to overall supply shortfalls and regional dislocation caused by tariffs [7] Market Trends - The cash-to-three month spread in London remains in backwardation, indicating near-term tightness in the copper market [6] - Copper prices rose by 3% to $12,844 per ton, while aluminum also saw a rise of 1.8% to $3,069 per ton, reflecting a tightening supply outlook [8]

"近期瑞银债券利差承受一定压力，"Aegon Asset Management投资组合经理Alexander Pelteshki表 示，"这一方面源于瑞银近期亮眼的业绩表现，另一方面则是市场预期其可能增发AT1债券以满足资本 需求。从当前的初始价格指引(IPT)来看，这批债券的定价在初期确实具备一定溢价吸引力。" 对此，瑞银方面的代表拒绝置评。 信贷分析机构CreditSights金融行业主管Simon Adamson在周一发给客户的研报中指出，瑞士资本监管规 则的潜在调整、瑞信AT1债券的遗留问题，均属于短期内难以解决的不确定性因素，或将持续压制瑞银 AT1债券的利差表现。 值得一提的是，此次发行将成为2026年全球首笔AT1债券。市场预计，由于各大银行再融资需求温和， 今年全球AT1债券的供给规模将相对有限。 智通财经APP获悉，在瑞士银行业资本监管规则尚处调整期、瑞信减记清零的AT1债券最终处置方案悬 而未决的背景下，瑞银集团(UBS.US)正试探投资者对额外一级资本(AT1)债券的认购意愿。 据知情人士透露，瑞银计划发行两批美元计价的AT1债券。其中一批在2031年可赎回，初步指导利率约 为7.125 ...

2026.01. 05 本文字数：1851，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 后歆桐 委内瑞拉政局动荡下，全球多个市场已作出反应。 油价方面，5日亚太市场转跌为涨。不过，市场普遍预计，委内瑞拉局势不会改变油价下跌趋势。黄 金作为避险资产的属性再次得到凸显，带领一众贵金属继续上涨。此外，加密货币市场走势备受关 注。 图源：新华社 油市风险有限 随着交易员消化委内瑞拉政局变化及其对该国石油业的影响，5日亚太交易时段，油价抹去此前跌 幅，转为小幅走高，布伦特原油期货上涨0.3%，至60.92美元/桶，WTI原油期货也上涨0.2%，至 57.43美元/桶。 但原油涨幅仍会因供应过剩的担忧而受限。在全球石油供应充足的背景下，分析师普遍预计，即使委 内瑞拉原油出口再受干扰，对油价也不会产生即刻影响。 国际能源署（IEA）预计，2026年全球石油供应将超过需求380万桶/日，创下历史性的供应过剩纪 录。咨询机构A/S Global Risk Management的首席分析师拉斯姆森（Arne Lohman Rasmussen）称，这种大规模的供应冗余为市场提供了强大的缓冲垫。即便委内瑞拉局势动荡，该 国当前约100万 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that structural changes in the Chinese market are expected to drive continued upward momentum in Chinese stocks, particularly in technology sectors, with significant returns anticipated in 2026 [1][4]. - In 2025, the MSCI China Index saw a return rate exceeding 30%, outperforming the S&P 500's return of approximately 16.39% [1]. - Global institutions are increasingly launching China-focused ETFs, with a total of 53 ETFs listed in the U.S., amounting to approximately $31.47 billion in total assets [2]. Group 2 - The largest Chinese ETFs in the U.S. include KWEB, MCHI, FXI, CQQQ, and ASHR, with KWEB having the largest size at $8.02 billion [2]. - CQQQ was a standout performer in 2025, attracting over $2 billion in inflows, while KWEB and MCHI received inflows of approximately $1.973 billion and $871 million, respectively [2]. - The interest in non-U.S. ETFs, including those focused on China, is expected to continue growing in 2026, driven by attractive valuations compared to U.S. stocks [3]. Group 3 - UBS Wealth Management forecasts that advanced manufacturing and technology will be key growth drivers for the Chinese market in 2026, supported by increased government R&D investment [4]. - The Chinese government aims to boost R&D spending to at least 3.2% of GDP by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 7% [4]. - Abundant liquidity, with approximately 7 trillion RMB in household savings, is expected to flow into the stock market, particularly in sectors like cloud computing, e-commerce, and AI [5].

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley anticipates a more proactive fiscal policy in China for 2026, driven by the "14th Five-Year Plan" and supportive measures in fiscal and real estate policies [3] - Key positive changes include flexible policies, resilient corporate performance in sectors like AI and biopharmaceuticals, and increased interest from overseas investors in Chinese assets [3] - The outlook for China's exports remains strong, with domestic demand policies being a critical variable for 2026 [3] Group 2 - UBS is optimistic about the continued upward trend of the Chinese stock market in 2026, driven by advanced manufacturing and technological self-reliance [4] - Structural changes are expected to support the rise of Chinese stocks, with AI and technology being key long-term growth drivers [4] - UBS forecasts a 37% growth in earnings per share for the Hang Seng Tech Index by 2026, supported by strong liquidity and favorable policies [5] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices may rise to $4,900 per ounce by December 2026, driven by central bank demand and a potential interest rate cut cycle [6] - Central banks are expected to purchase an average of 70 tons of gold monthly in 2026, contributing approximately 14 percentage points to gold price increases [6] - Goldman Sachs also sees copper prices strengthening due to supply constraints and sustained demand, maintaining a long-term price target of $15,000 per ton by 2035 [6] Group 4 - Nomura expects that the investment boom driven by AI and supportive monetary and fiscal policies will continue to propel global economic growth in 2026 [7] - Despite challenges such as reduced global cooperation and tight fiscal policy space, the AI-led investment trend is anticipated to provide a strong foundation for economic performance [7] - Nomura forecasts stable and accelerating growth in the global economy for 2026, although growth will be uneven across regions [7]

Group 1: Morgan Stanley's Outlook - Morgan Stanley anticipates a more proactive fiscal policy in China for 2026, supported by real estate policies to stabilize the economy [1] - Three positive changes are expected to boost confidence: flexible policies, resilient corporate performance in sectors like AI and biopharmaceuticals, and increased foreign investment interest in Chinese assets [1] - The firm predicts that China's exports will remain relatively strong, with a key variable being domestic demand policies [1] Group 2: UBS's Market Perspective - UBS believes that the upward trend in the Chinese stock market will continue into 2026, driven by advanced manufacturing and technological self-reliance [2] - Structural changes are expected to propel Chinese stocks, with AI and technology being key long-term growth drivers [2] - UBS forecasts a 37% growth in earnings per share for the Hang Seng Tech Index in 2026, supported by strong liquidity and favorable policies [2] Group 3: Goldman Sachs on Commodity Prices - Goldman Sachs projects gold prices to rise to $4,900 per ounce by December 2026, driven by central bank demand and a potential Fed rate cut cycle [3] - The firm estimates that central bank gold purchases will average around 70 tons per month in 2026, contributing approximately 14 percentage points to gold price increases [3] - In industrial metals, Goldman Sachs favors copper due to constrained supply and growing demand, maintaining a long-term price target of $15,000 per ton by 2035 [3] Group 4: Nomura's Economic Growth Forecast - Nomura expects AI-driven investment trends and supportive monetary and fiscal policies to continue driving strong global economic growth in 2026 [5] - The firm notes that despite reduced global cooperation and tight fiscal policy space, the investment momentum from AI will lay a strong foundation for economic performance [5] - Nomura anticipates signs of stability and accelerated growth in the global economy for 2026, although growth will remain uneven across regions [5]