智通财经APP获悉，大和发布研报称，中通快递-W(02057)管理层对于快递持续涨价仍感到乐观，相信 在推行反内卷政策后，行业价格可逐步复苏。相信行业价格趋势改善可将推动重估，将其评级从"跑赢 大市"上调至"买入"，目标价也从155港元上调至180港元。 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of ZTO Express-W to "Buy" from "Accumulate" [4][7]. Core Insights - ZTO Express-W reported a revenue of 11.8 billion yuan for Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, while the adjusted net profit was 2.1 billion yuan, down 26.8% year-on-year [1][4]. - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 22.7 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.8% year-on-year growth, with an adjusted net profit of 4.3 billion yuan, down 14.3% year-on-year [1][4]. - The adjusted net profit per ticket for Q2 2025 was 0.21 yuan, a decrease of 0.12 yuan year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit per ticket for the first half of 2025 was 0.23 yuan, down 0.09 yuan year-on-year [1][4]. - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 24.9%, a decline of 8.9 percentage points year-on-year, and for the first half of 2025, it was 24.8%, down 7.2 percentage points year-on-year [1][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The core revenue for Q2 2025 was 1.18 yuan per ticket, down 0.06 yuan year-on-year, primarily due to increased incentives and a decrease in average ticket weight [2]. - The operating cost per ticket for Q2 2025 was 0.89 yuan, an increase of 0.07 yuan year-on-year, with other costs rising by 134.9% [2]. Market Share and Guidance - The package volume for Q2 2025 was 9.85 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%, with a market share of 19.5%, showing a 0.6 percentage point increase quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The company has lowered its full-year package volume guidance to a range of 38.8 billion to 40.1 billion pieces, corresponding to an annual growth rate of 14.0% to 18.0% [3]. Capital Expenditure and Dividends - Capital expenditure for the first half of 2025 was 3.1 billion yuan, with expectations for 2025 to remain flat or slightly decrease [3]. - The interim dividend declared was 0.3 USD per share, with a payout ratio of 40% [3]. Earnings Forecast - The expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 11.10, 12.07, and 13.28 yuan per share, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.74, 11.73, and 10.66 [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 118.3 billion yuan in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.3%, while adjusted net profit decreased by 26.8% to 20.5 billion yuan [1][2] - The increase in revenue was driven by a 16.5% year-on-year growth in business volume, reaching 9.85 billion packages, despite a 4.7% decline in average revenue per package due to increased subsidies and lighter package weights [2] - The company has adjusted its full-year package volume growth target to 14%-18% from the previous 20%-24% due to changes in the economic and competitive landscape [3] Summary by Sections Performance Review - In Q2 2025, the company reported a revenue of 118.3 billion yuan, a 10.3% increase year-on-year, while adjusted net profit fell by 26.8% to 20.5 billion yuan [1] Operational Analysis - The revenue growth of 10.3% in Q2 was attributed to a 16.5% increase in business volume, totaling 9.85 billion packages, although the average revenue per package decreased by 4.7% [2] - The company’s market share was 19.5%, showing a slight year-on-year decline of 0.1 percentage points but an increase of 0.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] Cost Management - The core cost per package decreased by approximately 0.07 yuan, with transportation costs down by 0.06 yuan due to improved economies of scale and lower oil prices [3] - The gross margin fell by 8.9 percentage points year-on-year to 24.9%, and the adjusted net profit margin also decreased by 8.9 percentage points to 17.3% [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts the company's net profit for 2025-2027 to be 9 billion yuan, 9.7 billion yuan, and 10.6 billion yuan respectively, maintaining the "Buy" rating [4]

Group 1: Fixed Income Market Insights - The fixed income market is experiencing a weak sentiment, with a preference for short to medium-term credit instruments as the stock market remains strong since June, leading to adjustments in the bond market [2][4] - Recommendations include focusing on city investment bonds with maturities of three years or less, high-quality city rural commercial bank bonds, and high-grade central state-owned enterprise real estate bonds with maturities of one year or less [2][4] - The bond curve is expected to remain steep, and investors are advised to avoid ultra-long-term bonds and credit ETF securities [2] Group 2: Transportation Sector Recovery - The transportation sector is entering a recovery phase, with expectations of a seasonal increase in demand as the peak season approaches [6] - The industry has seen a slowdown in volume growth, with retail sales and express delivery volumes showing year-on-year increases of 4.0%, 8.3%, and 15.1% respectively [6] - Recommendations include focusing on the e-commerce express delivery sector and leading international logistics companies like SF Express [6] Group 3: Beverage Industry Outlook - The liquor sector is showing signs of stabilization, with government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand providing support [6] - Major liquor companies are focusing on maintaining investor interests through long-term and interim dividend plans, with current dividend yields for leading brands exceeding 3.5% [6] - The sector is expected to enter a phase of healthy recovery, with strong fundamentals among leading companies [6] Group 4: AI and Technology Sector - The AI technology revolution is anticipated to drive corporate profit growth, providing a counterbalance to macroeconomic uncertainties [4] - Industrial Fulian's stock has surged approximately 69% since mid-July, reflecting renewed market interest in its growth potential within the AI industry [14] - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the investment ceiling for AI computing power and the potential for significant growth in the sector [14] Group 5: Logistics and Delivery Sector - The logistics sector is expected to benefit from a price recovery due to the "anti-involution" policy, which aims to improve service quality and profitability [30] - ZTO Express reported a revenue increase of 9.8% year-on-year, although net profits declined due to intense price competition [30] - The outlook for the second half of the year remains positive, with expectations of improved profitability as the industry adjusts pricing strategies [30] Group 6: Insurance Sector Performance - Zhong An Insurance reported a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by strong growth in underwriting profits across various business lines [19] - The company’s overall performance reflects improvements in both insurance and investment segments, with a notable turnaround in its banking operations [19] - The report maintains a "buy" rating based on the positive trends across multiple business areas [19] Group 7: Power Generation Sector - Guiguan Electric's performance is in line with expectations, with a forecast for increased hydropower generation in the upcoming quarter due to favorable water conditions [26] - The company reported a revenue decline of 13.99% year-on-year, but net profits showed resilience [26] - The report suggests maintaining a "buy" rating based on anticipated growth in hydropower output [26] Group 8: E-commerce and Retail Sector - Salted Fish Shop's revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025 exceeded market expectations, driven by strong performance in its membership and retail channels [13] - The company reported a year-on-year revenue increase of 19.6%, with significant growth in its snack and retail segments [13] - The report highlights the importance of channel and product category growth in sustaining performance [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that ZTO Express's stock price has significantly lagged behind its A-share listed peers since July, primarily due to investor expectations regarding its lower sensitivity to profit from rising average express delivery prices [1] - Management remains optimistic about the continued price increases in the express delivery sector, believing that the industry's prices can gradually recover following the government's anti-involution policies [1] - In response to the slight negative impact of rising express delivery prices on package volume, the company has revised its full-year package volume growth forecast from a range of 20% to 24% down to a range of 14% to 18% [1] Group 2 - Consequently, the forecast for ZTO's earnings per share for 2025 to 2026 has been adjusted downward by 0.4% to 10% to reflect the anticipated decrease in package volume [1] - The report suggests that improvements in industry pricing trends could drive a revaluation of the company, with the rating upgraded from "outperform" to "buy" and the target price increased from 155 HKD to 180 HKD [1]

Group 1 - Meituan's international delivery brand "Keeta" officially launched in Doha, Qatar, on August 19, marking its second entry into the Middle East after Saudi Arabia, with plans to expand into Brazil in the coming months [1] - Meituan's expansion into Qatar represents a significant step in the global strategy of Chinese instant retail companies, leveraging their expertise in algorithm scheduling and supply chain management, while also facing localization challenges [1] Group 2 - ZTO Express reported a package volume of 9.85 billion for Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%, with a market share increase of 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, and a more than 50% year-on-year growth in its parcel business [2] - The company's revenue for Q2 was 11.83 billion, reflecting a 10.3% year-on-year growth, with an adjusted net profit of 2.1 billion and a net cash flow from operating activities of 2.2 billion [2] - ZTO's performance continues to follow the "volume-driven profit" growth model, with future growth dependent on technological investments to reduce costs and enhance efficiency, as well as building differentiated advantages in new logistics sectors [2] Group 3 - Weimob Group reported total revenue of 775 million for the first half of 2025, with an adjusted total revenue increase of 7.8% year-on-year, and adjusted EBITDA and net profit of 72 million and 17 million, respectively [3] - The company disclosed AI-related revenue of approximately 34 million for the reporting period, marking its first announcement of such income [3] - The enterprise service sector is undergoing an "AI reconstruction," and the ability to deeply integrate AI technology with core business operations will be crucial for competitive advantage [3] Group 4 - Hunan Shibite Robot Co., Ltd. announced the completion of a billion-level B+ round financing, exclusively invested by Bit Songling Fund under Yicun Capital, following a 300 million B round financing in 2022 [4] - The new funding will be used for further research and development of industrial embodied intelligence products and market expansion in the shipbuilding and lithium battery industries [4] - The financing highlights continued investor confidence in the industrial embodied intelligence sector, although the high technical barriers and strong customization demands in the industrial robotics industry present significant challenges for scaling up [4]

Group 1 - Meituan's international delivery brand "Keeta" officially launched in Qatar on August 19, marking another breakthrough in the Middle East market after Saudi Arabia. The company plans to further penetrate the Middle East and aims to enter Brazil in the coming months [1] - Meituan's expansion into Qatar highlights the acceleration of globalization among Chinese instant retail companies, leveraging their mature experience in algorithm scheduling and supply chain management as core competitive advantages, while also facing localization challenges [1] Group 2 - ZTO Express reported a package volume of 9.85 billion for Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.5% and a market share increase of 0.6% quarter-on-quarter. The company's revenue for the quarter was 11.83 billion, up 10.3% year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit of 2.1 billion and a net cash flow from operating activities of 2.2 billion [2] - ZTO's performance continues the growth logic of leading express companies "driving profit through volume." Future growth will depend on technological investments to reduce costs and enhance efficiency, as well as building differentiated advantages in new sectors like instant logistics [2] Group 3 - Weimob Group reported total revenue of 775 million for the first half of 2025, with an adjusted total revenue increase of 7.8% year-on-year. The adjusted EBITDA and net profit were 72 million and 17 million, respectively. The company disclosed AI-related revenue of approximately 34 million for the first time [3] - The enterprise service sector is undergoing an "AI reconstruction," and the ability to deeply integrate AI technology with core business operations will be crucial for determining competitive strength [3] Group 4 - Hunan Shibite Robot Co., Ltd. announced the completion of a billion-level B+ round financing, exclusively invested by Bit Songling Fund under Yicun Capital. This follows a 300 million B round financing completed in 2022. The new funding will be used for further R&D of industrial embodied intelligence products and market expansion in the shipbuilding and lithium battery industries [4] - The financing highlights continued capital interest in the industrial embodied intelligence sector. However, the high technical barriers and strong customization demands in the industrial robotics industry pose challenges for quickly converting R&D results into large-scale orders [4]

Summary of ZTO Express Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: ZTO Express (中通快递) - **Period**: Q2 2025 Key Industry Insights - The express delivery industry experienced a **17.3% year-over-year growth** in Q2 2025, indicating robust market dynamics [2][3]. - ZTO's parcel volume grew by **16.5%**, reaching **9.85 billion parcels**, slightly below the industry average [2][3]. Financial Performance - ZTO's **adjusted net income** was **RMB 2.05 billion**, reflecting a **26.8% decrease** due to intense market competition and price declines [2][14]. - **Total revenue** increased by **10.3%** to **RMB 11.8 billion**, driven by volume growth despite a **4.7% decline** in average selling price (ASP) [14]. - **Total cost of revenue** rose to **RMB 8.9 billion**, marking a **25.1% increase** from the previous year [14]. - **Gross profit** decreased by **18.7%**, with a gross margin drop of **8.9 points** to **24.9%** [14][15]. Operational Strategies - ZTO focused on **optimizing volume structure**, which contributed **RMB 0.17** in revenue and **RMB 0.02** in gross profit per unit for the core express delivery business [2][6]. - **Digitization and intelligent operations** led to a **RMB 0.07** per unit cost reduction in transportation and sortation [2][7]. - The company is enhancing its competitive edge through: 1. Optimizing network policies and costs [8][11]. 2. Deploying automation in sorting and transportation [8]. 3. Engaging with scattered parcel customers to increase revenue [8]. 4. Strengthening digital operations for efficient resource allocation [8]. Market Trends - A shift towards **light and small parcels** was noted, with more merchants opting for economical delivery services [4]. - ZTO's retail parcel volume grew over **50% year-over-year**, now accounting for over **8%** of total volume [5]. Future Outlook - ZTO revised its annual guidance for parcel volume growth to **14% to 18%**, lower than initial expectations [15]. - The company anticipates that **pricing dynamics** and **macroeconomic uncertainties** will impact future growth [15]. - ZTO remains confident in the long-term growth prospects of China's logistics industry, emphasizing the importance of **digitalization** and **intelligent operations** [9][13]. Technological Advancements - ZTO has integrated **AI tools** across various business segments, enhancing operational efficiency and service quality [16][19]. - The implementation of a **3D digital twin model** at central hubs has reduced management personnel by one-third and decreased error rates by over **60%** [17][18]. Pricing and Competition - Recent price adjustments in the industry are viewed as a **rational return** to sustainable pricing, with the lowest price in Guangdong now at **RMB 1.40** per unit [22][32]. - The company expects a more stable pricing environment moving forward, driven by rational market behavior [23][29]. Shareholder Returns - ZTO plans to maintain robust shareholder returns, considering both dividends and share repurchases [26][28]. Conclusion - ZTO Express is navigating a competitive landscape with a focus on operational efficiency, technological integration, and strategic pricing adjustments to ensure sustainable growth and shareholder value amidst evolving market conditions [10][34].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for ZTO Express (2057.HK) is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights a significant decrease in unit costs and a downward adjustment in volume growth guidance due to changes in the economic and competitive landscape [5][6] - The company achieved a revenue of 22.723 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, while the adjusted net profit was 4.312 billion yuan, down 14.3% year-on-year [2][3] Summary by Sections Operating Performance - In Q2 2025, the company handled 9.850 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%, maintaining a market share of approximately 19.5%, which is the highest in the industry [3] - The average revenue per parcel in Q2 2025 was 1.12 yuan, down 4.6% year-on-year, influenced by intensified industry competition and changes in cargo structure [3] - The unit cost for express delivery in Q2 2025 was approximately 0.58 yuan, a decrease of 11.0% year-on-year, with line haul costs down 15.0% and sorting costs down 5.1% [4] Volume Growth Guidance - The company has adjusted its full-year volume growth target for 2025 to 14%-18%, down from the previous 20%-24% due to the current economic and competitive environment [5] Industry Outlook - The report suggests that the express delivery industry still has growth potential, particularly with the rise of e-commerce and live-streaming sales, despite the downward trend in individual parcel values [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the "anti-involution" policies and changes in the competitive landscape within the express delivery sector [6] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The adjusted net profit forecast for ZTO Express from 2025 to 2027 is 9.297 billion yuan, 10.881 billion yuan, and 12.782 billion yuan, with a projected year-on-year growth of -7.77%, +17.04%, and +17.48% respectively [7] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating based on the company's leading unit profitability and cash flow, alongside its scale and management advantages [8]

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is currently facing intense price competition, and companies must shift from price wars to value wars by enhancing service quality to achieve sustainable growth [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, ZTO Express reported a package volume of 9.85 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%, and a revenue of 11.83 billion yuan, up 10.3% year-on-year [1]. - Adjusted net profit for the quarter was 2.05 billion yuan, a decrease of 26.8% compared to the previous year [1]. - The company has revised its annual package volume guidance to a range of 38.8 billion to 40.1 billion packages, corresponding to a growth rate of 14.0% to 18.0% [1]. Operational Insights - The average revenue per package in the core express business decreased by 0.06 yuan, influenced by increased incentives and a decline in average package weight, although prices for key accounts rose by 0.17 yuan [2]. - As of June 30, 2025, ZTO operates 94 sorting centers and over 31,000 pickup and delivery points, with approximately 6,000 direct network partners [2]. Strategic Focus - ZTO Express emphasizes a "quality first" strategy, aiming to create differentiated products and service experiences [2]. - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements in the last-mile delivery segment to enhance competitiveness and profitability [2]. Industry Challenges and Opportunities - The express delivery industry is experiencing challenges from aggressive pricing strategies and the rise of instant retail, which could impact traditional delivery volumes [4][5]. - Major internet companies are increasing investments in instant retail, with the market expected to exceed 2 trillion yuan by 2030 [4]. Technological Advancements - ZTO has begun commercializing the use of unmanned vehicles in over 700 locations, deploying more than 2,000 units across over 200 cities [6]. - The company is committed to deepening the application of artificial intelligence across all business segments to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [6][7].