[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 18 May 2025 中国食品饮料 China (A-share) Food & Beverage 大消费渠道脉搏：零食 SKU 扩张及品类延伸助力客群扩展，下沉市场和空白市场开店空间巨大 Consumer Channel Pulse: Snack SKU Expansion and Category Extension Boost Customer Base Growth, and Vast Store Opportunities in Lower-Tier and Untapped Markets 寇媛媛 Yuanyuan Kou 陈芳园 Ashley Chen yy.kou@htisec.com ashley.fy.chen@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件：2025 年 5 月 15 日，海通国际举办消费引力专场活动，邀请华中零食消费领域专家分享行业 ...

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 18 May 2025 香港策略 Hong Kong Strategy 冲高回落印证资金谨慎，维持审慎观望等待回调 Market Pullback Affirms Cautious Risk Appetite; Maintain Prudent Wait-and-See 周林泓 Amber Zhou 李加惠 Jiahui Li, CFA amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com jh.li@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 上周，我们提示需警惕中美贸易缓和后资金获利了结，并建议等待科技股回调再行布局。本周港股行业普遍上 扬，红利板块领涨科技；A股则是红利上涨而科技下跌。整体而言，受中美联合声明的刺激，本周市场冲高后回 落，恒生指数和恒生科技指数涨2%；A股上证综指涨0.8%，创业板指涨1.4%，而科创50跌1.1%。 联合声明落地后，中美贸易谈判将进入更 ...

资金从何而起 [Table_Authors] 吴信坤(分析师) ——港股资金跟踪新范式 1 本报告导读： ①基于属地来源和历史交易行为的"两步法"核心框架将港股资金面拆分为长短线 外资、内资、港资等各类资金。②拆分后资金存量规模显著分化，过去以来外资占 比虽下滑但仍延续主导，南向定价权边际提升。③长短线外资在交易的换手频率和 方向变动上存在差异，南向通常会逆势买入，近期外资流出而南向流入的格局仍延 续。 投资要点： 登记编号 S0880525040084 陆嘉瑞(研究助理) 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880125042248 风险提示：部分资金数据为估算值，与真实情况或有出入。 策 略 研 究 策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.05.17 2025-05-18 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 海 外 策 略 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880525040061 余培仪(分析师) 021-38676666 [Table_Summary] 基于历史交易行为辨别外资属性的核心框架。通常而言，微观资金 面的跟踪源自各类投资者资金流动的汇总，港股 ...

研究报告 Research Report 中国可选消费 & 必需消费 China (Overseas) Discretionary & Staples 餐饮及潮玩行业周报 F&B and Designer Toys Sector Weekly Report [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | [Table_Info] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 评级 | 股票名称 | | 评级 | | 泡泡玛特 | Outperform 现代牧业 | | | Outperform | | 安踏体育 | Outperform 澳优 | | | Outperform | | 百威亚太 | Neutral | 九毛九 | | Outperform | | 海底捞 | Outperform | | | | | 华住酒店集团有限 | Outperform | | | | | 公司 | | | | | | 华润啤酒 | Outperform | | | | | 康师傅 | Outperform | | | | | 中国飞鹤 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the aerospace and defense sectors, particularly highlighting companies like Howmet Aerospace, Loar Holdings, Safran, and VSE for their growth potential in high-performance components and services [5]. Core Insights - The report indicates that technology giants are likely to increase capital expenditures for data centers due to tariff pressures and uncertainties, with Meta raising its AI data center capex forecast to between $64 billion and $72 billion for 2025 [2][18]. - The U.S. defense spending is projected to increase, with a significant arms sales agreement worth $142 billion reached between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, which may impact regional military balances [3][37]. - The industrial robotics sector is expected to maintain a steady growth trajectory, with global installations projected to remain around 541,302 units in 2024, despite a slight decline in 2023 [39][45]. Summary by Sections Data Centers - Meta has adjusted its AI data center capital expenditure forecast upwards, attributing the increase to tariff impacts and supply chain adjustments [2][18]. Energy Construction - The U.S. government is expected to face legal challenges regarding the rollback of energy efficiency regulations, while Virginia has initiated a pilot for a utility-scale virtual power plant [22][23]. - GE Vernova announced a $14.2 billion energy agreement to support Saudi Arabia's power generation and grid stability [71]. Aerospace - The aerospace sector is witnessing a recovery, with companies like Howmet Aerospace and Safran positioned to benefit from increased demand for aerospace components and services [5][26]. - The price index for aircraft engines and components has shown stability, with a year-on-year increase of 2% [28][32]. Defense - The U.S. defense price index for government spending was stable in Q4 2024, reflecting a 2.1% year-on-year increase, indicating ongoing government investment in defense capabilities [38]. Robotics - The industrial robotics market is projected to see continued growth, with a significant share of installations coming from the automotive sector, which accounted for 25% of total installations in 2023 [39][45]. - The report highlights a robust demand for automation technologies driven by nearshoring trends and supportive policies like the Inflation Reduction Act [45]. Industrial Equipment - The gas turbine price index has increased by 7.24% year-on-year, driven by supply-demand dynamics and the growth of AI data centers [49][51]. - The report notes that the price index for electric transformers has remained stable, with slight year-on-year increases [56][58].

Group 1: Market Performance - In Q1 2025, retail sales of sportswear brands in Southwest China faced pressure, with NIKE and ADIDAS experiencing significant year-on-year declines, particularly NIKE, which saw a more pronounced drop[2] - FILA, Li-Ning, and Lululemon also reported year-on-year sales declines, indicating inventory and profit pressures across the sector[2] - Despite increased store traffic, the turnover rate and average transaction value decreased year-on-year, primarily due to delayed seasonal changes and adverse weather conditions[2] Group 2: Inventory and Pricing - Inventory levels are slightly higher but controllable, with low discount rates and sell-through rates observed across brands[3] - NIKE and ADIDAS maintained similar discount ranges, but NIKE's discounts have deepened compared to last year, while ADIDAS's discounts have slightly increased[3] - Li-Ning and Anta have stable discount rates, while FILA's discount rate has slightly decreased, and Lululemon maintains a high pricing strategy[3] Group 3: Brand Strategies and Consumer Trends - NIKE is undergoing a strategic adjustment, with a focus on footwear over apparel, leading to competitive disadvantages in the apparel category[4] - ADIDAS has improved its market position in China through localization and brand strategy adjustments, focusing on consumer needs and establishing stable distributor relationships[4] - FILA's sales performance is above market average due to its expansion into specialized categories and enhanced promotional strategies[4]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies involved in RISC-V chip verification and AI computing power [1]. Core Insights - The explosive growth in AI computing power is driving a revolutionary upgrade in chip validation paradigms, highlighting the inadequacy of traditional validation methods for the complexity of RISC-V chips [3][9]. - The open-source nature of RISC-V is seen as critical for breakthroughs in China's semiconductor industry, with modular instruction extensions and low-cost licensing models enabling customized architectures [4][10]. - The dual drive between AI and chip design presents new challenges, necessitating a shift towards "efficiency-first" design principles and forward-looking extensibility in architecture [5][11]. Summary by Sections Event Overview - On May 14, 2025, Synopsys and BlueCore Technology held a roundtable discussion focusing on RISC-V chip validation, addressing the "impossible triangle" dilemma, hardware-accelerated validation methodologies, and strategies for co-building verification tools in an open-source ecosystem [2][8]. Validation Paradigms - Traditional validation methods struggle with the complexity of RISC-V chips, exacerbated by architectural flexibility and increasing core counts, leading to an expanded validation space [3][9]. - Synopsys proposed the Shift Left strategy, moving validation to the architecture exploration phase, which combines hardware emulation with virtual prototyping platforms to significantly reduce cycle times [3][9]. Open-Source Ecosystem - BlueCore emphasized that RISC-V's modular instruction extensions and low-cost licensing model provide freedom for customized architectures, although challenges remain in server application porting and low-power validation [4][10]. - Synopsys' full-stack toolchain has streamlined development, enabling clients to boost performance by 20% and reduce power consumption by 10% [4][10]. AI and Chip Design - The conflict between compute demand and energy efficiency is pushing designs towards "efficiency-first" principles, while the mismatch between AI iteration speed and chip development cycles requires forward-looking extensibility [5][11]. - The integration of FPGA prototyping with AI and functional safety requirements highlights the depth of technological convergence needed in the industry [5][11]. Future Path - The dialogue outlines a clear path for AI-RISC-V co-evolution, transitioning validation from "tool-driven" to "AI-empowered" and moving ecosystems from "single-point breakthroughs" to "full-chain collaboration" [5][12].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for Berkshire Hathaway's stock Core Insights - Berkshire Hathaway's 1Q25 portfolio report indicates no new equity positions were initiated, with seven holdings increased, five trimmed, and two liquidated, resulting in a further decrease in total equity exposure [7][8] - The stake in Apple (AAPL US) remained unchanged for the second consecutive quarter, continuing as Berkshire's largest holding, followed by American Express (AXP US) and Coca-Cola (KO US) [7][9] - The reduction in the position of Bank of America (BAC US) allowed Coca-Cola to rise from fourth to third place among the top holdings [7][9] Summary by Sections Portfolio Adjustments - In 1Q25, Berkshire Hathaway continued to reduce its exposure to the financial sector, completely exiting Citigroup (C US) and NU (NU US), while also trimming its stake in Bank of America (BAC US) and Capital One (COF US) [8][9] - The company slightly reduced its holding in DaVita (DVA US) to maintain ownership below 45% [8] Consumer Stock Preferences - Berkshire increased stakes in three consumer stocks: Constellation Brands (STZ US), Pool Corp (POOL US), and Domino's Pizza (DPZ US), all of which were first purchased in 4Q24, along with HEICO (HEI US) [9][10] - These companies are characterized by strong cash flow, high margins, and significant competitive advantages [9] Communications Sector Rotation - Starting in 4Q24, Berkshire began shifting its communications exposure from T-Mobile (TMUS US) and Charter Communications (CHTR US) to SIRIUS XM (SIRI US) and VeriSign (VRSN US) [10] - Following the merger of Liberty Sirius XM with its parent company, Berkshire continued to make small purchases of SIRIUS [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 57.68, indicating a potential upside from the current price of RMB 49.90 [1][8]. Core Insights - The company is solidifying its rehabilitation core business while expanding into the emerging medical aesthetics energy source market. The report highlights the company's strategic upgrades in technology platforms and product lines, which are expected to drive future growth [1][8]. - Despite a weak consumption recovery, the forecasted EPS for 2025-2026 is RMB 1.28 and RMB 1.51, with an additional forecast of RMB 1.81 for 2027. The company is positioned in emerging sectors like medical aesthetics and rehabilitation robotics, suggesting potential for a second growth phase [1][8]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 400 million, a decrease of 13.45% from the previous year. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 102 million, down 25.16% [4][8]. - By product line for 2024: electrical stimulation revenue is RMB 37 million (-41.75%), magnetic stimulation is RMB 172 million (-13.92%), electrophysiology is RMB 65 million (+0.25%), consumables and accessories are RMB 79 million (+4.14%), and laser radiofrequency is RMB 30 million (-20.87%) [4][8]. - The company is focusing on core product upgrades and expansion in rehabilitation, with significant developments in electrical stimulation and magnetic stimulation products expected to be certified in 2024 [4][8]. Emerging Market Strategy - The company is increasing investments in emerging fields, particularly in the medical aesthetics energy source market. It has developed products such as shaping magnets, picosecond lasers, and radiofrequency devices, targeting gynecology, dermatology, and medical aesthetics [4][8]. - Sales breakthroughs are anticipated in maternal and child channels and light medical aesthetics markets for 2024, with the Nd:YAG frequency-doubled picosecond laser already certified [4][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the health food industry, emphasizing its growth potential driven by an aging population and regulatory changes [3][11]. Core Insights - The aging population in China is a significant driver for the health food industry, with the market expected to grow substantially as the demographic shifts [1][3]. - The health food market in China is currently valued at over 350 billion yuan, with a high single-digit growth rate, which is expected to accelerate due to increasing demand for chronic disease management [3][9]. - The industry is characterized by low concentration, with the top 10 companies holding less than 40% market share, indicating significant room for consolidation and growth [3][10]. Summary by Sections Long-term Outlook - The health food market is projected to achieve double-digit growth as the penetration rate increases from approximately 20% in China towards the 50% level seen in the U.S. [3][9]. - The potential user base is expanding, with over 310 million people aged 60 and above expected by the end of 2024, which will drive demand for health food products [3][9]. Short-term Performance - The health food sector is currently facing pressure, with major listed companies reporting a revenue decline of 3.9% year-on-year for 2024 and a further decline of 11% in Q1 2025 [4][10]. - Despite the overall decline, certain companies like H&H International Holdings and Jindawei are showing resilience and growth, indicating differentiation within the sector [4][10]. Regulatory and Market Opportunities - Regulatory changes are expected to benefit the industry, with the expansion of the health food registration system and the introduction of functional foods, which will enhance product offerings and reduce time to market [11]. - There are opportunities for Chinese health food companies to expand internationally, particularly in Southeast Asia, where traditional Chinese medicine concepts are well-received [11].