策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.11.22 2025-11-24 避险情绪下内外资一致性流入价值板块 [Table_Authors] ——11 月第 3 周全球外资周观察 本报告导读： ① 北向资金：最近一周可能小幅净流出，其中灵活型外资可能小幅净流出。②港 股：最近一周稳定型外资流入-267 港元，灵活型外资流入 13 亿港元，港股通流 入 277 亿港元。③亚太市场：外资本周流入日本，10 月流入印度。④美欧市 场：9 月资金流入欧洲，流入美国。 投资要点： 研 究 海 外 策 略 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 策 略 [Table_Report] [Table_Summary] 北 向资金 ：最近 一周北向 资金可 能 大幅 净流出。 最近一周 （2025/11/17-2025/11/21，下同）交易日期间北向资金估算净流出 183 亿元，前一周（2025/11/10-2025/11/14，下同）估算净流出 50 亿元。最近一周交易日期间灵活型外资估算净流出 77 亿元，前一周 估算净流入 10 亿元。此外，我们汇总最近一周陆股通每日前十大活 跃个股， ...

·········································································································[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 24 Nov 2025 ```··························································································································································································································································· 东南亚可选消费必需消费 Southeast Asia Discretionary Staples 东南亚指数双周报第 12 期：区域回落，越南转涨 ASEAN Index Tracking: ASEAN sto ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an OUTPERFORM rating for Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial (2555 HK) [1][2]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing business optimization driven by product innovation, with visible results from recent reforms [1][4]. - The current share price is HK$6.72, with a target price set at HK$9.30, indicating a potential upside [2]. - The company has a market capitalization of HK$9.93 billion (approximately US$1.28 billion) and has seen a significant decline in stock price over the past year [2][3]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are Rmb 55.9 billion, 60.0 billion, and 65.5 billion respectively, with net profit estimates of Rmb 8.4 billion, 9.5 billion, and 10.8 billion [5]. - The company reported a revenue of Rmb 4.918 billion in 2024, with a 14% year-on-year decline, but is expected to recover with a 14% growth in 2025 [5][21]. - The gross profit margin is projected to improve from 31.2% in 2024 to 33.1% by 2027 [5]. Business Model and Market Position - Sichuan Baicha Baidao is recognized as the third-largest ready-to-drink tea brand in China, holding an 8% market share based on GMV in 2023 [3][7]. - The company has expanded its store count to 8,465 globally, with 8,444 stores in China and 21 overseas [3][7]. - The brand has shifted its focus from supply-driven to demand-driven product development, significantly increasing the number of new product launches [4][13]. Strategic Adjustments - The company has implemented a dual-team approach in R&D to enhance product innovation, resulting in 55 new products launched in the first half of 2025 [4][27]. - Marketing strategies have transitioned from passive to proactive, with increased advertising expenditures leading to higher brand visibility [4][30]. - Operational adjustments include optimizing the franchise system and enhancing supply chain capabilities, which have contributed to improved store performance [4][51]. Market Trends - The ready-to-drink beverage industry in China is entering an adjustment phase after years of rapid growth, with major brands focusing on internal improvements and exploring new product categories [14][19]. - The mid-priced beverage segment is particularly competitive, with a significant market share and a growing number of brands emerging [19]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from regulatory changes that promote industry standardization and compliance, potentially increasing its market share [5]. - Plans to introduce new product categories, such as coffee, are underway to further enhance sales performance [50].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Miniso Group, with a target price of USD 26.60, reflecting a potential upside from the current price of USD 19.57 [2][10]. Core Insights - Miniso's 3Q performance met guidance, with revenue of RMB 5.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28.2%, exceeding the upper limit of the previous guidance of 25%-28% [3][16]. - The company expects 4Q revenue growth of 25%-30%, with same-store sales growth in mainland China and the U.S. projected to be in the low double digits [3][9]. - For the full year 2025, Miniso anticipates a revenue growth rate of approximately 25% [3][9]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Projections**: Expected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 21.4 billion, RMB 25.3 billion, and RMB 29.8 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 26%, 18%, and 18% [10][18]. - **Net Profit**: Adjusted net profit is projected to be RMB 2.92 billion, RMB 3.41 billion, and RMB 4.08 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [10][18]. - **Gross Profit Margin**: The gross profit margin is expected to improve slightly from 44.8% in 2025 to 45.9% in 2027 [10][14]. Domestic Business Overview - Domestic revenue reached RMB 2.91 billion in 3Q, a 19% year-on-year increase, with 102 new stores added in the quarter [4][16]. - The company plans to open over 100 new stores in mainland China by 2025, focusing on channel upgrades and high-quality store openings [4][9]. International Business Overview - International revenue was RMB 2.31 billion, up 28% year-on-year, with 117 new stores added [5][16]. - The U.S. market showed significant growth, with revenue increasing by over 65% year-on-year [5][16]. TOPTOY Business Performance - TOPTOY reported revenue of RMB 575 million, a remarkable 111% increase year-on-year, with a significant improvement in same-store sales [8][16]. - The company plans to open 40-45 new TOPTOY stores by 2025 [8][16]. Valuation and Target Price - The report projects a target price of USD 26.60 based on a 20x P/E ratio for 2025, reflecting a slight adjustment from the previous target price of USD 27.30 [10][18].

研究报告 Research Report 23 Nov 2025 中国可选消费 & 必需消费 China (Overseas) Discretionary & Staples 餐饮、潮玩及家电行业周报 F&B, Designer Toys and Home Appliance Sector Weekly Report [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | [Table_Info] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 评级 | 股票名称 | | 评级 | | 泡泡玛特 | Outperform 现代牧业 | | | Outperform | | 安踏体育 | Outperform 澳优 | | | Outperform | | 华住酒店集团有限 | Outperform 九毛九 | | | Outperform | | 公司 | | | | | | 百威亚太 | Neutral | | | | | 华润啤酒 | Outperform | | | | | 海底捞 | Outperform | | | | | ...

Investment Focus - The report indicates that after a completed correction phase, a rebound in the market is anticipated, particularly in the tech sector, as liquidity pressures ease and external catalysts accumulate [1][6][14] - The Hang Seng Tech Index has retraced 60% of its year-to-date gains, while the STAR 50 has given back half of its rise, indicating a significant correction in the Chinese tech market [4][12] - A-share equity ETFs have seen a net inflow of RMB 6.1 billion in the first four days of the week, suggesting continued interest in the market despite recent declines [5][13] Market Conditions - U.S. equities have faced downward pressure, with expectations for a December Fed rate cut rising from 35% to 71%, which has influenced global market sentiment [2][10] - The report notes that the recent decline in U.S. tech stocks is primarily due to profit-taking rather than a fundamental shift in the AI cycle, with optimism for AI demand remaining intact [3][11] - The report highlights that the A-share market has seen a decrease in turnover, with total turnover falling to RMB 1.7 trillion, indicating a consolidation phase before the next trend [4][12] Sector Analysis - The report expresses a positive outlook for the tech sector, particularly for the Hang Seng Tech Index and domestic compute names, supported by strong AI policy certainty in China [6][14] - The banking and insurance sectors have seen substantial rallies, but momentum is slowing, while the brokerage sector, which has had smaller year-to-date gains, may become a stabilizer in the market [6][14] - The report mentions that low-valuation consumption and property sectors are in a gradual upward channel, with potential upside supported by valuation and policy expectations [16]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to Gushengtang, expecting a relative return exceeding 10% over the next 12-18 months [16]. Core Insights - Gushengtang announced the acquisition of 100% equity in Singapore's Da Zhong Tang, which operates 14 TCM clinics, aiming to enhance its market share and expand its business network in Singapore [5][6]. - The acquisition is anticipated to positively impact the company's performance in 2026, leveraging Da Zhong Tang's established brand and operational presence in key commercial areas of Singapore [6][7]. - The company plans to continue its overseas expansion through a combination of mergers and acquisitions, partnerships, and self-established clinics, targeting the addition of 10-20 new stores in Singapore and around 20 clinics in Hong Kong by 2026 [7][8]. Summary by Sections Acquisition Details - Gushengtang's acquisition of Da Zhong Tang will consolidate its financial results into the group's statements, enhancing its operational scale in Singapore [5][6]. Market Expansion Strategy - The company aims to expand its presence in Singapore through a mix of M&A, partnerships, and new clinic establishments, with a goal of generating significant overseas revenue by 2026 [7]. Operational Enhancements - Gushengtang plans to utilize its domestic supply chain for Chinese herbal products to support its overseas clinics, while enhancing internal treatment capabilities through AI technology and expert training [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the company, highlighting optimism regarding the launch of innovative products and overseas expansion [1]. Core Insights - The company's revenue faced short-term pressure due to the consumption environment, with Q3 2025 revenue at RMB 570 million, down 21.3% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at RMB 300 million, down 34.6% year-on-year [2][8]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue was RMB 1.86 billion, a decrease of 21.5% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1.09 billion, down 31.1% year-on-year [2][8]. - The company has strong R&D capabilities and is focusing on the acquisition of South Korea's REGEN, which is expected to significantly contribute to revenue and profit in 2026 [3][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a net profit margin of 52.4%, down 12.1 percentage points year-on-year [2][8]. - The expense ratios increased due to profitability pressure, with sales expense ratio at 11.0% (+2.1 pp), administrative expense ratio at 4.9% (+0.2 pp), and R&D expense ratio at 10.1% (+3.3 pp) for the first three quarters of 2025 [2][9]. Strategic Developments - The proposed acquisition of an 85% stake in REGEN for USD 190 million is expected to enhance the company's product portfolio with two marketed products: AestheFill and PowerFill [3][10]. - The company has also received approval for its minoxidil liniment, which will further enrich its product matrix [3][10].

Investment Rating - Maintain Outperform rating; target price set at 149.21 RMB based on a 43x PE for 2026 [4][9][10] Core Insights - Overall performance meets expectations, with revenue slightly below forecasts; Q3 2025 revenue at 1.21 billion RMB, up 32.58% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders at 0.26 billion RMB, up 78.55% YoY [10][11] - Revenue changes attributed to seasonal order fluctuations, while overall profitability remains stable with a Q3 gross profit margin of 36.15% and a net profit margin of 22.83% [10][11] - Strong industry demand noted, with a focus on the progress of the MDC business, which has potential for better development in high-density optical connections [11][12] Financial Summary - Projected total revenue for 2025-2027 is 1.39 billion RMB, 2.79 billion RMB, and 4.05 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding net profits of 0.39 billion RMB, 0.79 billion RMB, and 1.18 billion RMB [3][4] - EPS forecasted to be 1.72 RMB, 3.47 RMB, and 5.19 RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][6] - The company maintains a stable profitability outlook with a projected ROE of 22.0% in 2025, increasing to 41.8% by 2027 [3][4]

Investment Rating - Maintain Outperform rating with a target price of 99.0 RMB based on a 43.8x PE for 2026 [4][8] Core Insights - Significant growth in performance with Q3 2025 revenue of 8.53 billion RMB, up 58.65% YoY, and net profit of 719 million RMB, up 54.95% YoY [9] - The increase in 800G product proportion is expected to enhance profitability, with domestic demand for 800G anticipated to rise rapidly in 2026 [9][10] - Positive outlook for domestic computing power chips and cloud providers, with major companies planning to expand data center capacities significantly [10] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E are 6,061 million RMB, 8,272 million RMB, 11,718 million RMB, 17,362 million RMB, and 21,522 million RMB respectively, with growth rates of -12.3%, 36.5%, 41.7%, 48.2%, and 24.0% [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow from 619 million RMB in 2023A to 2,331 million RMB in 2027E, with corresponding EPS increasing from 0.77 RMB to 2.89 RMB [3][4] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was reported at 24.14%, reflecting a 4 percentage point increase QoQ [9] Industry Outlook - The domestic data center construction is expected to benefit from localization efforts, with optimism surrounding the growth of domestic chip manufacturers [10] - The overall industry is projected to experience high growth driven by increasing demand for advanced data communication technologies [9][10]