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索宝蛋白(603231):公告点评:四季度利润表现良好,26年业绩可期
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2026-02-04 03:11
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][6][12] Core Views - The company is expected to continue its strong profit growth in Q4 2025, with a positive outlook for revenue and profit performance in 2026 [2][12] - The target price is set at 24.80 CNY per share, based on a 20x PE ratio for 2026E [12][14] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to decline from 1,748 million CNY in 2023 to 1,555 million CNY in 2024, before recovering to 1,681 million CNY in 2025 and reaching 1,869 million CNY in 2026 [4][13] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decrease from 146 million CNY in 2023 to 121 million CNY in 2024, then rebound to 187 million CNY in 2025 and further to 238 million CNY in 2026 [4][13] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.76 CNY in 2023, decreasing to 0.63 CNY in 2024, and then increasing to 0.98 CNY in 2025 and 1.24 CNY in 2026 [4][13] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 7.5% in 2023 to 11.3% in 2026 [4][13] Market Data - The company's market capitalization is approximately 3,670 million CNY, with a share price range of 14.28 to 22.05 CNY over the past 52 weeks [7][12] - The current share price is 19.17 CNY [12] Production Capacity and Growth - New production capacity is expected to be released gradually, contributing to steady revenue growth [12] - A 30,000-ton soybean protein production line is anticipated to be operational by December 2026, with an expected annual revenue of 260 million CNY [12]
出口链月度跟踪:汇率与运价边际回落,海外需求结构分化
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2026-02-04 02:50
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [6] Core Insights - The report highlights a differentiated demand structure within the industry, with specific focus on export-oriented consumer enterprises that possess global manufacturing layouts, brand output capabilities, and channel integration advantages. These companies are expected to achieve sustained growth amid changing external environments and policy dynamics [4][7] - Key companies recommended for investment include: Juxing Technology, Yindu Co., Taotao Vehicle, Honghua Digital Science, and Jack Co. The report also mentions related companies such as Haoyang Co. [7][18] Summary by Relevant Sections Cost Tracking - The report notes a slight depreciation of the USD against the RMB, with the exchange rate at 6.95 as of January 30, 2026, reflecting a 1.30% increase from January 23, 2026. Additionally, shipping costs have decreased year-on-year across various routes, with the overall container freight index down by 16.92% year-on-year [7][15] Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking - The report provides insights into the U.S. restaurant industry, indicating a decrease in the Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) to 99.2 in November 2025, down 0.4% from October 2025. The U.S. housing market index also shows a significant year-on-year decline of 21.28% as of January 2026 [7][10][11] - In the motorcycle industry, the report notes a year-on-year increase in export volume by 15.83% despite a month-on-month decline of 2.73% in December 2025 [5] - The golf cart industry experienced a year-on-year export increase of 7.66% in December 2025, with total export value reaching $0.43 billion for the month [7][5]
绝对收益产品及策略周报(260126-260130):上周108只固收+基金创新高
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2026-02-04 02:30
绝对收益策略表现跟踪。1)股债混合策略表现。宏观择时驱动的股 债 20/80 再平衡策略上周收益 0.05%(YTD 0.56%),股债风险平价 策略上周收益 0.04%(YTD 0.47%);两者叠加行业 ETF 轮动的增强 策略上周收益分别为 0.29%(YTD0.89%)和 0.13%(YTD0.55%); 股债黄金风险平价类组合上周收益 0.26%(YTD1.28%)。2)量化固 收+策略表现。股债 20/80 组合中,小盘价值风格表现最为突出,年 内收益率 2.60%,PB 盈利、高股息、小盘成长分别为 1.30%、0.87%、 1.88%;当调整为股债 10/90 配置时,各策略收益均出现回落。叠加 择时策略后,基于宏观动量模型的小盘价值组合累计收益 3.82%, 基于逆周期配置的 PB 盈利搭配小盘价值组合年内收益为 1.38%。 绝对收益产品及策略周报(260126-260130) [Table_Authors] 郑雅斌(分析师) 上周 108 只固收+基金创新高 本报告导读: 股票端采用小盘价值组合+不择时的股债 10/90 和 20/80 月度再平衡策略,2026 年累 计收益分别为 1. ...
极米科技:2025Q3季报点评内销格局改善,出海及新业务贡献增量-20260204
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2026-02-04 02:30
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 153.19 yuan [4][10]. Core Insights - The domestic sales landscape is improving, and there is rapid growth in overseas markets and new business segments [2][10]. - The company reported a revenue of 2.327 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.99%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 80 million yuan, indicating a turnaround from losses [10]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 700 million yuan, a 2.9% increase year-on-year, and a reduced net loss of 9 million yuan compared to the previous year [10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 3.557 billion yuan, with a decline of 15.8% year-on-year, followed by a slight recovery in 2025 with an expected revenue of 3.644 billion yuan, representing a growth of 7.0% [10][11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decrease to 116 million yuan in 2025, but is projected to rebound significantly to 501 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 40.1% [10][11]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.66 yuan in 2025, increasing to 7.16 yuan by 2027 [10][11]. - The company is expected to maintain a net asset return rate (ROE) of 3.9% in 2025, improving to 13.4% by 2027 [10][11]. Business Developments - The company has launched several new products, including the portable projector Play6 and the flagship home projector RS20 series, enhancing its product matrix in both entry-level and high-end segments [10]. - The company is expanding its international presence, with products entering major offline channels in Europe, North America, Japan, and Australia [10]. - New business initiatives include the development of in-car projection technology, with multiple contracts secured in the smart cockpit and intelligent lighting sectors [10].
出口链月度跟踪:汇率与运价边际回落,海外需求结构分化-20260204
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2026-02-04 01:56
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [6] Core Insights - The report highlights a differentiated demand structure within the industry, with specific focus on export-oriented consumer enterprises that possess global manufacturing layouts, brand output capabilities, and channel integration advantages [4][7] - It emphasizes the importance of companies with diversified capacity allocation, stable customer loyalty, and pricing power to achieve sustained growth amid changing external environments and policy negotiations [7] - The report recommends specific companies such as Juxing Technology, Yindu Co., Taotao Vehicle, Honghua Digital Technology, and Jack Co. as key investment targets, while also mentioning Haoyang Co. as a related stock [7][18] Summary by Relevant Sections Cost Tracking - The report notes a slight depreciation of the USD against the RMB, with the exchange rate at 6.95 on January 30, 2026, reflecting a 1.30% increase from January 23, 2026 [7] - Shipping costs have decreased year-on-year across various routes, with the overall container freight index (CCFI) at 1175.59, down 16.92% year-on-year and 2.74% month-on-month [7] Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking - The report provides insights into the U.S. restaurant industry, indicating a decrease in the Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) to 99.2 in November 2025, down 0.4% from October 2025 [7] - The U.S. housing market index showed a year-on-year decline of 21.28% in January 2026, with a current index of 37, reflecting a 5.13% month-on-month decrease [7] - The golf cart industry experienced a year-on-year export increase of 7.66% in December 2025, with an export value of $0.43 billion for the month and a total of $3.63 billion for the year [7]
国泰海通晨报-20260204
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2026-02-04 01:39
国泰海通晨报 2026 年 02 月 04 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [Table_Summary] 1、【基金评价与研究】:2026 年开年以来,A 股市场热点赛道相继发酵,1 月全月依然延续了慢 牛上涨行情。我们建议后续基金配置在整体维持均衡风格的前提下,适度偏向成长,从大类资产 配置角度来看可以对黄金和美股相关 ETF 进行一定配置。 2、【生物医药研究】医药:在英国首相访华期间,阿斯利康宣布计划在中国投资 150 亿美元,将 主要用于细胞治疗和放射性偶联药物。 3、【汽车研究】潍柴动力:新兴的 AIDC 发电设备——往复式燃气发电机组、SOFC 将是潍柴动 力的重要业绩增长点。 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] (分析师) 电话:021-38676172 邮箱:tangweixiang@gtht.com 登记编号:S0880511010007 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推荐 江涛(分析师) 021-23185672 jiangtao4@gtht.com S0880525040067 倪韵婷(分析师) 021-23185605 niyunting@gtht.c ...
绝对收益产品及策略周报(260126-260130):上周108只固收+基金创新高-20260204
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2026-02-04 01:31
绝对收益产品及策略周报(260126-260130) [Table_Authors] 郑雅斌(分析师) 上周 108 只固收+基金创新高 本报告导读: 股票端采用小盘价值组合+不择时的股债 10/90 和 20/80 月度再平衡策略,2026 年累 计收益分别为 1.38%和 2.60%。 投资要点: 金 融 工 程 周 报 固收+产品业绩跟踪。截至 2026 年 01 月 30 日,全市场固收+基金 规模 23558.32 亿元,产品数量 1164 只,其中 108 只上周净值创历 史新高。上周(20260126-20260130,下同)共新发 6 只产品,各类 型基金业绩中位数表现分化:混合债券型一级(-0.08%)、二级(- 0.08%)、偏债混合型(-0.08%)、灵活配置型(-0.03%)、债券型 FOF (0.26%)及混合型 FOF(0.35%)。按风险等级划分,保守型、稳健 型、激进型基金中位数收益分别为 0.01%、-0.12%、-0.12%。 大类资产配置和行业 ETF 轮动策略跟踪。1)大类资产择时观点。 2026Q1 逆周期配置模型给出的宏观环境预测结果为 Slowdown,截 至 2 ...
极米科技(688696):2025Q3季报点评:内销格局改善,出海及新业务贡献增量
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2026-02-04 01:27
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 153.19 CNY, reflecting a premium valuation due to the high growth potential of new business segments [4][10]. Core Insights - The company's domestic sales landscape is improving, and there is rapid growth in overseas markets and new business ventures. The company reported a revenue of 2.327 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 1.99%, and a net profit of 80 million CNY, indicating a turnaround from losses [2][10]. - The company has launched several innovative products, including the portable projector Play6 and the flagship home projector RS20 series, enhancing its market share in entry-level DLP projectors while also expanding its high-end laser projector offerings [10]. - The overseas market strategy is robust, with products entering major retail channels in Europe, North America, Japan, and Australia. Additionally, the company is venturing into the automotive projection business, securing contracts for smart cockpit and intelligent lighting applications [10]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year 2023, total revenue is projected at 3.557 billion CNY, with a net profit of 121 million CNY. The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 1.66 CNY, with a growth rate of -3.1% [10][11]. - The company expects significant profit recovery in the coming years, with net profits projected to reach 501 million CNY by 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 40.1% [10][11]. - The financial metrics indicate a net asset return (ROE) of 3.9% for 2023, expected to rise to 13.4% by 2027, showcasing improving profitability [11].
风格轮动策略月报第10期:2月建议超配小盘风格,中长期继续看好小盘、成长风格-20260204
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2026-02-04 01:02
——风格轮动策略月报第 10 期 本报告导读: | 月建议超配小盘风格,中长期继续看好 2 | | [Table_Authors] | 郑雅斌(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 小盘、成长风格 | | | 021-23219395 | | | | | zhengyabin@gtht.com | | ——风格轮动策略月报第 10 期 | | 登记编号 | S0880525040105 | | 本报告导读: | | | 张雪杰(分析师) | | 本报告对大小盘轮动月度策略、价值成长轮动月度策略以及风格因子表现进行跟踪。 根据量化模型信号,2 月建议超配小盘风格,均衡配置价值成长风格。中长期观点, | | | 0755-23976751 | | 未来一年继续看好小盘风格、成长风格。 | | | zhangxuejie@gtht.com | | | | 登记编号 | S0880522040001 | | 投资要点: | | | | | [Table_Summary] 大小盘风格轮动月度策略。月度观点:1 月底量化模型最新信号为 | | | 朱惠东(分析师) | | 月小盘相对占 ...
天润工业:首次覆盖曲轴连杆龙头地位稳固,AIDC大机增量可期-20260204
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2026-02-04 00:25
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating and a target price of 9.68 CNY [2][5][11]. Core Views - The company maintains a leading position in the crankshaft and connecting rod market for commercial vehicle engines, with a strong customer base including major manufacturers like Weichai Power and Cummins. The expansion into data center generator components is expected to be a core growth driver [11][13]. - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 38.72 billion CNY, 43.51 billion CNY, and 48.09 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7%, 12%, and 11% [13][18]. - The company has established five large crankshaft production lines and is building two more, aiming for an annual production capacity of 30,000 large crankshafts by the end of 2026 [11][12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 4,006 million CNY, with a forecasted decline of 9.7% in 2024, followed by growth in subsequent years [4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 391 million CNY in 2023, with a significant increase of 92% year-on-year [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.34 CNY in 2023, increasing to 0.51 CNY by 2027 [4][18]. Business Segment Forecast - Crankshaft revenue is expected to reach 24.56 billion CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 9% [13]. - Connecting rod revenue is projected at 9.62 billion CNY in 2025, with an 11% growth rate [14]. - Air suspension revenue is forecasted to remain stable at 2.75 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027 [14]. Valuation - The company is valued using a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 22 times for 2026, based on comparable companies, leading to a target price of 9.68 CNY [18][20].