Q3 业绩超预期增长，免签助力国际战略 中国东航(600115) ——中国东航 2025 年三季报点评报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 岳鑫(分析师) | 0755-23976758 | yuexin@gtht.com | S0880514030006 | | | | 陈亦凡(研究助理) | 0755-23976151 | chenyifan2@gtht.com | S0880124070025 | [Table_Target] 目标价格(元): | 5.94 | 本报告导读： 2025Q3 公司在公商走弱压力下实现盈利逆势大增，展现未来盈利上行潜力。公司积 极增投国际并搭建国际枢纽网络，国际盈利改善有望提升长期盈利能力。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Uber [6][10]. Core Insights - Uber continues to show strong revenue and profit growth, with a diversified business model and a partnership with Nvidia to accelerate the deployment of autonomous driving networks [3][10]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for FY2025E-FY2027E to $51.9 billion, $60.1 billion, and $68.5 billion respectively, with corresponding adjusted EBITDA of $8.7 billion, $11.3 billion, and $14 billion [10][11]. Financial Summary - **Revenue (in million USD)**: - 2023: 37,281 - 2024: 43,978 - 2025E: 51,948 - 2026E: 60,069 - 2027E: 68,481 - Growth rates: 2023 (+17.0%), 2024 (+18.0%), 2025E (+18.1%), 2026E (+15.6%), 2027E (+14.0%) [5][11]. - **Operating Profit (in million USD)**: - 2023: 1,110 - 2024: 2,799 - 2025E: 5,399 - 2026E: 7,897 - 2027E: 10,371 - Growth rates: 2023 (+160.6%), 2024 (+152.2%), 2025E (+92.9%), 2026E (+46.3%), 2027E (+31.3%) [5][11]. - **GAAP Net Profit (in million USD)**: - 2023: 1,887 - 2024: 9,856 - 2025E: 11,180 - 2026E: 7,085 - 2027E: 8,938 [5][11]. - **Adjusted EBITDA (in million USD)**: - 2023: 4,052 - 2024: 6,484 - 2025E: 8,684 - 2026E: 11,271 - 2027E: 14,033 [5][11]. Business Diversification - Uber's business model is increasingly diversified, with significant growth in both ride-hailing and food delivery services. The company is leveraging a "barbell" structure in its ride-hailing business, balancing low-cost services with high-margin offerings [10]. - The grocery and retail segments of the food delivery business are growing rapidly, with annualized gross bookings nearing $12 billion, significantly outpacing traditional food delivery growth [10]. Strategic Partnerships - Uber has partnered with Nvidia to enhance its L4 autonomous driving capabilities, utilizing Nvidia's full-stack platform to improve training quality and system reliability [10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Increase" rating for the stocks mentioned, indicating a potential rise of over 15% relative to the CSI 300 index within the next 12 months [5][13]. Core Insights - The launch of the Shuguang scaleX640 marks a significant advancement in domestic computing power, achieving a 30-40% performance improvement in trillion-parameter model training and inference compared to traditional solutions [2][5]. - The scaleX640 enhances the cost-effectiveness of inference scenarios and is expected to accelerate the breakthrough of domestic computing chips in training applications [5]. - The report highlights the long-term stability of the scaleX640, which has undergone over 30 days of reliability testing, ensuring support for large-scale cluster deployments [5]. - The open architecture of the scaleX640 is anticipated to facilitate the integration of domestic computing software ecosystems and unify supernode structures, potentially leading to rapid iterations in domestic supernodes [5]. Summary by Sections Performance and Features - The scaleX640 boasts a 20-fold increase in computing density per cabinet and supports trillion-parameter model training, with a performance boost of 30-40% in inference scenarios compared to traditional methods [5]. - Innovative technologies such as ultra-high-speed orthogonal architecture, high-density blades, immersion phase change cooling, and high-voltage direct current power supply are employed in the scaleX640 [5]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends the following stocks: - Cambrian-U (688256.SH) with a closing price of 1480.00 and an EPS forecast of 5.04 for 2025 [7]. - Haiguang Information (688041.SH) with a closing price of 239.68 and an EPS forecast of 1.34 for 2025 [7]. - SMIC (688981.SH) with a closing price of 124.85 and an EPS forecast of 0.46 for 2025 [7]. - Zhaoyi Innovation (603986.SH) with a closing price of 227.20 and an EPS forecast of 2.35 for 2025 [7]. - Shengke Communication-U (688702.SH) with a closing price of 119.31 and an EPS forecast of 0.04 for 2025 [7]. - The report also mentions Chipone Technology (688521) as a related stock [5].

Group 1: Financial Engineering Research - The report predicts the adjustment list for the constituent stocks of major indices in December 2025 based on the adjustment rules of the CSI and Guozheng indices, and measures liquidity shocks from a market-wide perspective [1][30] - As of the end of October 2025, the ETF sizes for major market indices such as SSE 50, STAR 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and ChiNext have reached 192.6 billion, 180.1 billion, 1,254.7 billion, 181.9 billion, 170.2 billion, and 141.0 billion respectively, indicating a 4.7 times growth compared to the end of 2021 [2][30] - The report outlines the periodic adjustment rules for core indices, noting that adjustments occur twice a year for SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and ChiNext, and four times a year for STAR 50 [2][30] Group 2: New Stock Research - In the first three quarters of 2025, IPO support policies have been frequent, leading to a recovery in the issuance pace and fundraising scale, with a total of 773.02 billion raised, a 61% year-on-year increase [5][6] - The report anticipates an acceleration in IPO issuance over the next year, estimating that A-class/B-class accounts with a scale of 500 million will see additional yield increases of approximately 2.82% and 2.20% respectively [7][6] - The approval pace for existing projects is tight, with a high-quality project reserve expanding, indicating a positive outlook for future IPOs [6][7] Group 3: Company Research - Yum China - Yum China's Q3 2025 revenue reached 3.206 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 4%, with operating profit at 400 million USD, up 8% [9][10] - Same-store sales continued to show positive growth, with KFC and Pizza Hut same-store sales increasing by 2% and 1% respectively [9][10] - The company plans to return 3 billion USD to shareholders through dividends and buybacks from 2025 to 2026, with projected EPS for 2025-2027 at 2.50, 2.88, and 3.16 USD [8][9] Group 4: Company Research - Nanwei Medical - Nanwei Medical achieved revenue of 2.381 billion CNY in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 18.29%, with net profit of 509 million CNY, up 12.90% [17][18] - The company’s overseas sales maintained strong growth, with revenue reaching approximately 1.4 billion CNY, a 42% year-on-year increase [18][19] - The company is focusing on integrating its CME operations, with a new production facility in Thailand expected to be operational by the end of 2025 [19] Group 5: Company Research - Yongxing Materials - Yongxing Materials reported revenue of 5.547 billion CNY in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 10.98%, with net profit down 45.25% [21][22] - The decline in performance is attributed to falling lithium prices, with the average price of lithium carbonate showing fluctuations throughout the year [22] - The company maintains a high dividend payout, planning to distribute 528 million CNY in cash dividends in 2024, representing over 50% of its net profit [23] Group 6: Company Research - I Love My Home - I Love My Home reported a revenue of 8.165 billion CNY in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.81%, while net profit surged by 398.75% [24][26] - The company’s transaction volume increased significantly, with total housing transaction amounts reaching 196.2 billion CNY, a 5.2% year-on-year increase [26][27] - The company continues to focus on core cities, with a total of 2,549 operational stores as of Q3 2025 [26]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Cautious Accumulate" with a target price of 3.16 CNY [6][13]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the company's non-operational impacts have gradually diminished, and efficiency improvements and cost reductions will continue. The sales performance in core cities is expected to drive revenue growth, leading to sustained profit improvement [2]. - The company has achieved significant profit growth, with a notable increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, which reached 0.42 billion CNY in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 398.75% [13]. - The company focuses on first-tier and new first-tier cities, with a total of 2,549 operational stores as of the end of Q3 2025, including 2,086 direct stores and 501 franchise stores [13]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 12,092 million CNY, with a growth rate of 3.6% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to turn positive in 2024, reaching 73 million CNY, and further increasing to 149 million CNY in 2025 [4]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.03 CNY in 2024 and 0.06 CNY in 2025 [4]. Business Performance - The company reported a total housing transaction amount of 196.2 billion CNY in 2025, an increase of 5.2% year-on-year [13]. - The brokerage business achieved a gross transaction value (GTV) of 156.6 billion CNY in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.1% [13]. - The asset management business managed a total of 330,000 housing units, showing an 8.9% increase compared to the beginning of the year [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][13]. Core Views - The impact of centralized procurement is expected to stabilize gradually, while overseas markets continue to drive growth. The company is actively collaborating with distributors to reduce inventory, and new products are receiving positive feedback. Domestic growth is anticipated to recover in 2026 as the effects of centralized procurement stabilize [2][13]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 2,411 million, with a year-on-year growth of 21.8%. By 2027, revenue is expected to reach 4,750 million, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20.4% [5][14]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to grow from 486 million in 2023 to 944 million in 2027, with a CAGR of 18.4% [5][14]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 2.59 in 2023 to 5.02 in 2027 [5][14]. Market Performance - The company's current stock price is 81.77, with a target price set at 99.38, indicating a potential upside [7][8]. - The stock has a market capitalization of 15,360 million and has traded within a 52-week range of 56.98 to 100.35 [8][9]. Growth Drivers - The overseas business is maintaining rapid growth, with revenue from exports reaching approximately 1.4 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 42% [13]. - Innovative products are expected to contribute significantly to growth, with notable increases in sales for visual products and sponge stents in key markets [13]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on inventory reduction and risk management strategies, with current channel inventory at historically low levels. The integration of CME is progressing, and a new production facility in Thailand is expected to commence operations by the end of 2025, primarily serving the U.S. market [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [5][11]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2025 was impacted by a decline in lithium prices, with revenue of 5.547 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.98%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 532 million yuan, down 45.25% year-on-year [11]. - The report anticipates a recovery in performance due to increasing demand for lithium carbonate driven by energy storage needs, with lithium prices gradually stabilizing and rising [2][11]. - The target price for the company has been raised to 56.80 yuan, reflecting an increase in valuation based on industry peers [11][13]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to decline from 12.189 billion yuan in 2023 to 8.074 billion yuan in 2024, before recovering to 8.412 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.1% by 2027 [4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decrease significantly from 3.407 billion yuan in 2023 to 1.043 billion yuan in 2024, with a gradual recovery to 1.253 billion yuan by 2027 [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.42 yuan in 2025, increasing to 2.32 yuan by 2027 [4][11]. Market and Industry Analysis - The company operates in the special steel and lithium carbonate sectors, with a focus on optimizing product structure and enhancing market share in key areas such as nuclear power and automotive high-purity steel [11]. - The report highlights a robust demand for lithium carbonate, particularly in the energy storage sector, which is expected to support price stabilization and recovery [11][12]. - The company is actively managing costs and expanding its raw material sources to maintain competitive advantages in the market [11].

Group 1: Small and Large Cap Style Rotation - The report suggests an overweight position in small-cap style for November based on quantitative model signals and calendar effects, as historical data indicates small caps tend to outperform in November [1][8]. - The current market capitalization factor valuation spread is 0.88, indicating that small caps still have room for growth compared to large caps, which are at historical high levels of 1.7 to 2.6 [8][16]. - Year-to-date, the small and large cap rotation quantitative model has achieved a return of 27.85%, with an excess return of 2.86% relative to the benchmark [8][9]. Group 2: Value and Growth Style Rotation - The monthly quantitative model signal for value style is 1, recommending an overweight position in value style for November [23][26]. - Year-to-date, the value-growth style rotation strategy has yielded a return of 19.95%, with an excess return of 1.35% compared to the equal-weighted benchmark [23][26]. - The current model indicates that fundamental, macroeconomic, and valuation dimensions are all pointing towards value [26][27]. Group 3: Factor Performance Tracking - In October, the dividend, momentum, and value factors achieved positive returns of 0.43%, 0.38%, and 0.15% respectively, while large-cap, volatility, growth, quality, and liquidity factors experienced negative returns [29][30]. - Year-to-date, the volatility, momentum, and growth factors have positive returns of 10.17%, 1.54%, and 1.29%, while liquidity, large-cap, dividend, quality, and value factors have negative returns [29][30].

Investment Rating - The report rates the media industry as "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The media industry experienced significant revenue and profit growth in Q3 2025, with a revenue of 135.21 billion yuan, up 8.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 10.4 billion yuan, up 43.7% year-on-year. The gaming sector was a major driver, with a net profit growth of 111% [2][11] - The report highlights the positive impact of AI technology on new formats such as animated dramas and short dramas, which are expected to enhance efficiency and drive growth [2][65] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The gaming sector is highlighted for its high growth potential, with Q3 2025 revenue reaching 33 billion yuan, a 27.1% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.88 billion yuan, reflecting a profit margin of 17.8%. Key companies recommended include Kayi Network, Giant Network, and Jibite [8][20][27] - The report suggests focusing on the IP and film sectors, which are recovering from a low base, with recommendations for Mango Super Media and Shanghai Film, particularly in the context of AI-driven innovations [8][54][64] - The publishing sector is noted for its stability, with a recommendation for state-owned publishing companies due to their strong cash reserves and high dividend yields [9][48] Q3 2025 Overview - The media sector's revenue and profit growth is attributed to the gaming sector's performance, with significant contributions from companies like ST Huatuo and Jibite [11][14] - The publishing sector saw a revenue decline of 5.1% but managed to achieve a net profit increase of 27.9% due to favorable tax policies [39][44] Gaming Sector - The gaming industry is experiencing a favorable supply-demand structure, with a notable increase in the number of domestic game licenses issued, reaching a total of 1,354 licenses in 2025 [20][28] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of leading gaming companies, with significant year-on-year growth in both revenue and net profit [27][31] IP and Film Sector - The film sector's revenue in Q3 2025 was 28.59 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.1%, but net profit surged by 936.3% due to improved box office performance [54][58] - The report highlights the potential of AI technologies in transforming the film industry, particularly in production efficiency and IP monetization [65] Marketing Sector - The marketing sector achieved a revenue of 47.16 billion yuan, up 7.6% year-on-year, with notable growth from leading companies like Yidian Tianxia [66]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical sector, specifically recommending the innovative drug and medical device industry chain [5][10]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector shows a positive recovery trend in Q3 2025, with overall revenue growth of 0.6% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 0.3% year-on-year. This indicates a return to growth after previous declines [6][13]. - Specific segments such as medical devices and medical research outsourcing are experiencing significant growth, with revenue and net profit growth rates of 10.6% and 0.6% for medical devices, and 10.9% and 47.9% for medical research outsourcing, respectively [13][14]. - The report highlights a continued recommendation for specific A-share and H-share stocks, including 恒瑞医药 (Hengrui Medicine), 科伦药业 (Kelun Pharmaceutical), and others, indicating strong potential for investment [7][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Continued Recommendation for Innovative Drug and Medical Device Industry Chain - The report continues to recommend the innovative drug and medical device industry chain, maintaining "Overweight" ratings for several A-share stocks including 恒瑞医药, 科伦药业, and others, and H-share stocks like 翰森制药 and 三生制药 [7][10]. 2. Recovery Trend in Pharmaceutical Sector Q3 2025 - The pharmaceutical sector's overall revenue increased by 0.6% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with net profit rising by 0.3%. Medical devices and medical research outsourcing are leading this recovery with notable growth rates [13][14]. 3. Performance of Pharmaceutical Sector in October 2025 - In October 2025, the pharmaceutical sector underperformed compared to the broader market, with the SW pharmaceutical index declining by 1.8% while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.9% [15][26]. 4. Performance of Hong Kong and US Pharmaceutical Sectors - The Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector also underperformed, with the Hang Seng Healthcare index down by 11.1%, while the US pharmaceutical sector showed strength with a 3.5% increase in the S&P healthcare index [26][27]. 5. Valuation and Premium Levels - As of October 31, 2025, the pharmaceutical sector's premium level relative to all A-shares is at a normal level, with a current relative premium rate of 76.7% [25][28].