国泰海通晨报 2026 年 02 月 04 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [Table_Summary] 1、【基金评价与研究】：2026 年开年以来，A 股市场热点赛道相继发酵，1 月全月依然延续了慢 牛上涨行情。我们建议后续基金配置在整体维持均衡风格的前提下，适度偏向成长，从大类资产 配置角度来看可以对黄金和美股相关 ETF 进行一定配置。 2、【生物医药研究】医药：在英国首相访华期间，阿斯利康宣布计划在中国投资 150 亿美元，将 主要用于细胞治疗和放射性偶联药物。 3、【汽车研究】潍柴动力：新兴的 AIDC 发电设备——往复式燃气发电机组、SOFC 将是潍柴动 力的重要业绩增长点。 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] (分析师) 电话：021-38676172 邮箱：tangweixiang@gtht.com 登记编号：S0880511010007 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推荐 江涛(分析师) 021-23185672 jiangtao4@gtht.com S0880525040067 倪韵婷(分析师) 021-23185605 niyunting@gtht.c ...

绝对收益产品及策略周报（260126-260130） [Table_Authors] 郑雅斌(分析师) 上周 108 只固收+基金创新高 本报告导读： 股票端采用小盘价值组合+不择时的股债 10/90 和 20/80 月度再平衡策略，2026 年累 计收益分别为 1.38%和 2.60%。 投资要点： 金 融 工 程 周 报 固收+产品业绩跟踪。截至 2026 年 01 月 30 日，全市场固收+基金 规模 23558.32 亿元，产品数量 1164 只，其中 108 只上周净值创历 史新高。上周（20260126-20260130，下同）共新发 6 只产品，各类 型基金业绩中位数表现分化：混合债券型一级（-0.08%）、二级（- 0.08%）、偏债混合型（-0.08%）、灵活配置型（-0.03%）、债券型 FOF （0.26%）及混合型 FOF（0.35%）。按风险等级划分，保守型、稳健 型、激进型基金中位数收益分别为 0.01%、-0.12%、-0.12%。 大类资产配置和行业 ETF 轮动策略跟踪。1）大类资产择时观点。 2026Q1 逆周期配置模型给出的宏观环境预测结果为 Slowdown，截 至 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 153.19 CNY, reflecting a premium valuation due to the high growth potential of new business segments [4][10]. Core Insights - The company's domestic sales landscape is improving, and there is rapid growth in overseas markets and new business ventures. The company reported a revenue of 2.327 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 1.99%, and a net profit of 80 million CNY, indicating a turnaround from losses [2][10]. - The company has launched several innovative products, including the portable projector Play6 and the flagship home projector RS20 series, enhancing its market share in entry-level DLP projectors while also expanding its high-end laser projector offerings [10]. - The overseas market strategy is robust, with products entering major retail channels in Europe, North America, Japan, and Australia. Additionally, the company is venturing into the automotive projection business, securing contracts for smart cockpit and intelligent lighting applications [10]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year 2023, total revenue is projected at 3.557 billion CNY, with a net profit of 121 million CNY. The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 1.66 CNY, with a growth rate of -3.1% [10][11]. - The company expects significant profit recovery in the coming years, with net profits projected to reach 501 million CNY by 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 40.1% [10][11]. - The financial metrics indicate a net asset return (ROE) of 3.9% for 2023, expected to rise to 13.4% by 2027, showcasing improving profitability [11].

——风格轮动策略月报第 10 期 本报告导读： | 月建议超配小盘风格，中长期继续看好 2 | | [Table_Authors] | 郑雅斌(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 小盘、成长风格 | | | 021-23219395 | | | | | zhengyabin@gtht.com | |  ——风格轮动策略月报第 10 期 | | 登记编号 | S0880525040105 | | 本报告导读： | | | 张雪杰(分析师) | | 本报告对大小盘轮动月度策略、价值成长轮动月度策略以及风格因子表现进行跟踪。 根据量化模型信号，2 月建议超配小盘风格，均衡配置价值成长风格。中长期观点， | | | 0755-23976751 | | 未来一年继续看好小盘风格、成长风格。 | | | zhangxuejie@gtht.com | | | | 登记编号 | S0880522040001 | | 投资要点： | | | | | [Table_Summary] 大小盘风格轮动月度策略。月度观点：1 月底量化模型最新信号为 | | | 朱惠东(分析师) | | 月小盘相对占 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating and a target price of 9.68 CNY [2][5][11]. Core Views - The company maintains a leading position in the crankshaft and connecting rod market for commercial vehicle engines, with a strong customer base including major manufacturers like Weichai Power and Cummins. The expansion into data center generator components is expected to be a core growth driver [11][13]. - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 38.72 billion CNY, 43.51 billion CNY, and 48.09 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7%, 12%, and 11% [13][18]. - The company has established five large crankshaft production lines and is building two more, aiming for an annual production capacity of 30,000 large crankshafts by the end of 2026 [11][12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 4,006 million CNY, with a forecasted decline of 9.7% in 2024, followed by growth in subsequent years [4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 391 million CNY in 2023, with a significant increase of 92% year-on-year [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.34 CNY in 2023, increasing to 0.51 CNY by 2027 [4][18]. Business Segment Forecast - Crankshaft revenue is expected to reach 24.56 billion CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 9% [13]. - Connecting rod revenue is projected at 9.62 billion CNY in 2025, with an 11% growth rate [14]. - Air suspension revenue is forecasted to remain stable at 2.75 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027 [14]. Valuation - The company is valued using a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 22 times for 2026, based on comparable companies, leading to a target price of 9.68 CNY [18][20].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating and a target price of 9.68 CNY [2][5][11]. Core Insights - The company maintains a leading position in the crankshaft and connecting rod market for commercial vehicle engines, with a strong customer base including major manufacturers like Weichai Power and Cummins. The expansion into data center generator components is expected to be a core growth driver [11][13]. - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 38.72 billion CNY, 43.51 billion CNY, and 48.09 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7%, 12%, and 11% [13][18]. - The company has established five large crankshaft production lines and is constructing two additional top-tier lines, expected to be operational by the end of 2026, which will significantly enhance production capacity [11][12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 4,006 million CNY, with a forecasted decline of 9.7% in 2024, followed by growth in subsequent years [4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 391 million CNY in 2023, with a significant increase of 92% year-on-year, followed by a decrease in 2024 and a recovery in the following years [4][18]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 0.36 CNY, 0.44 CNY, and 0.51 CNY, reflecting growth rates of 22.8%, 23.8%, and 15.4%, respectively [4][18]. Business Segment Forecast - Crankshaft revenue is expected to reach 24.56 billion CNY, 28.05 billion CNY, and 31.30 billion CNY in 2025, 2026, and 2027, with corresponding gross profits of 6.14 billion CNY, 7.29 billion CNY, and 8.30 billion CNY [13][14]. - Connecting rod revenue is projected at 9.62 billion CNY, 11.13 billion CNY, and 12.63 billion CNY for the same years, with gross profits of 2.21 billion CNY, 2.67 billion CNY, and 3.09 billion CNY [14]. - The air suspension segment is expected to maintain stable revenue of 2.75 billion CNY annually, while other segments are projected to decline significantly [14][15]. Valuation - The company is valued using a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 22 times for 2026, based on comparable companies, leading to a target price of 9.68 CNY [11][18].

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.03 1 月理财月报：总量微降，现金管理和混合类产品规模上升 [Table_Industry] 商业银行 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马婷婷(分析师) | 021-23185608 | matingting@gtht.com | S0880525100001 | | 刘源(分析师) | 021-38677818 | liuyuan2@gtht.com | S0880521060001 | 本报告导读： 2026 年 1 月末银行理财存续规模为 31.55 万亿，同比增长 5.7%，环比连续两个月下 降。但降幅以固收为主，现金管理类和混合类产品规模分别较年初增长 141、204 亿。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 商业银行《战略投资者拟扩围，利好银行长期资 本补充》2026.02.01 商业银行《银行快报陆续披露，25A 业绩稳健增 长》2026.01.25 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [Table_Summary] ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.03 [Table_Industry] 计算机 政策注入消费动能，看好三方收单"铲 子"公司 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 杨林(分析师) | 021-23183969 | yanglin2@gtht.com | S0880525040027 | | 魏宗(分析师) | 021-23180000 | weizong@gtht.com | S0880525040058 | | 张盛海(研究助理) | 021-23183956 | zhangshenghai@gtht.com | S0880125042247 | 本报告导读： 26 年开年之际促消费政策频发，扩内需战略持续推进，将加速消费信心提振，推动 消费需求扩张，第三方收单公司有望受益。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 报 计算机《计算机 2026 年 2 月研究观点：模型边界 多路径演进，应用分化与世界模型探索》 2026.02.01 计算机《制度闭环叠加 AI 催化，迎接数据要素 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 10.01 CNY [5][21]. Core Insights - The company is a long-established leader in the glass industry, accelerating its transformation with a focus on automotive glass and TCO (Transparent Conductive Oxide) glass production [2][11]. - The automotive glass market is rapidly expanding, with the company achieving nationwide operational rights and accelerating new vehicle partnerships, which is expected to enhance both volume and profitability [16][24]. - The TCO glass production is nearing mass production, with the company having a leading position in online coating technology, poised to benefit from the upcoming demand surge [17][18]. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to reach 5.588 billion CNY in 2023, with a growth forecast of 10.3% to 6.418 billion CNY by 2027 [4][18]. - Net profit is expected to recover from a loss of 125 million CNY in 2023 to a profit of 279 million CNY by 2027, reflecting a significant turnaround [4][18]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to increase from -0.13 CNY in 2023 to 0.29 CNY in 2027 [4][18]. Company Overview - The company, established in 1983, is a Sino-British joint venture, with major shareholders including Shanghai Building Materials Group and NSG Group [23][15]. - The governance structure is stabilizing, with Shanghai Building Materials Group increasing its shareholding over the years [31][15]. - The company is focusing on upgrading its deep processing capabilities through targeted fundraising for technological improvements [30][2]. Automotive Glass Market - The automotive glass segment is projected to grow significantly, with revenue expected to reach 20.86 billion CNY in 2025, driven by increased demand for electric and smart vehicles [18][19]. - The gross margin for automotive glass is anticipated to improve from 10.25% in 2023 to 15.00% by 2027, reflecting enhanced product offerings and customer partnerships [16][18]. - The competitive landscape in the automotive glass market is limited due to high capital requirements and operational complexities, favoring established players [39][41]. TCO Glass Production - The TCO glass segment is approaching a production ramp-up, with significant demand expected from downstream clients in the 2025-2027 period [17][18]. - The company’s acquisition of Dalian Yao Pi has improved its online coating utilization, contributing significantly to its profitability [17][18]. - The TCO glass production is supported by advancements in coating technology and resource availability, positioning the company favorably for future growth [17][18].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" for the company with a target price of 10.01 CNY [5][21]. Core Insights - The company is a long-established leader in the glass industry, accelerating its transformation with a focus on automotive glass and TCO (Transparent Conductive Oxide) glass production [2][11]. - The automotive glass segment is expanding rapidly, with the company achieving nationwide operational rights and accelerating new vehicle partnerships, which is expected to enhance both volume and profitability [16][24]. - The TCO glass production is nearing mass production, with the company having a leading position in online coating technology, poised to benefit from the upcoming demand surge [17][18]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to reach 5.588 billion CNY in 2023, with a growth forecast of 10.3% to 6.418 billion CNY by 2027 [4][18]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to recover from a loss of 125 million CNY in 2023 to a profit of 279 million CNY by 2027, reflecting a significant turnaround [4][18]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from -0.13 CNY in 2023 to 0.29 CNY in 2027 [4][18]. Company Overview - The company, established in 1983, is a Sino-British joint venture, with major shareholders including Shanghai Building Materials Group and NSG Group [23][31]. - The governance structure is stabilizing, with Shanghai Building Materials Group increasing its shareholding over the years [31][32]. - The business structure has shifted towards higher value-added products, particularly in automotive and TCO glass segments [15][24]. Automotive Glass Market - The automotive glass market is experiencing rapid expansion, with the value per vehicle increasing from approximately 500-800 CNY for traditional vehicles to 1500-2000 CNY for electric and smart vehicles [16][35]. - The company has unified its operational rights across the country and is accelerating the acquisition of new energy vehicle partnerships, which is expected to improve profit margins significantly [16][24]. - The gross margin for automotive glass is projected to rise from 10.25% in 2023 to 13.34% in 2024, driven by new customer acquisitions [16][24]. TCO Glass Production - The TCO glass segment is approaching a production ramp-up phase, with significant demand expected from downstream customers planning large-scale production between 2025 and 2027 [17][18]. - The company has enhanced its online coating utilization rates post-acquisition, allowing for flexible production capabilities across various glass types [17][18]. - The profitability from TCO glass is expected to contribute significantly to the company's overall net profit in the coming years [17][18].