新 股 研 究 北证 50 震荡回落，沪深北三市交易活跃 度均有所下降 ——北交所周报（2025 年 11 月第 2 周） 本报告导读： 11 月第 2 周沪深北三市交易活跃度均有所下降，市场主要指数除中证 500 和北证 50 指数外均有所上涨，北证 50 指数自 10 月 29 日大幅上涨后震荡回落，单周下跌 3.79%。当周北交所 1 只股票招股，2 只新股上市。 投资要点： | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 | | --- | 新股研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.11.12 | [Table_Authors] | | | --- | --- | | | 王政之(分析师) | | | 021-38674944 | | | wangzhengzhi@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880517060002 | | | 施怡昀(分析师) | | | 021-38032690 | | | shiyiyun@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880522060002 | | | 王思琪(分析师) | | | 021-38038671 | | | wangsiqi3@gtht ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the company [3][8]. Core Insights - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 24.1% in Q3, impacted by the ongoing adjustment in the real estate market and a slowdown in infrastructure investment growth. The current dividend yield is at 5%, indicating that the company is undervalued as a leading market player in construction [2][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's revenue reached 1.56 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 4.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 38.18 billion yuan, down 3.8% year-on-year. The gross profit margin stood at 8.72%, with a net profit margin of 2.45% [4][5]. - The company reported a decrease in operating cash flow, with a net outflow of 69.48 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, although this was an improvement compared to the 77.01 billion yuan outflow in the same period of 2024 [5][6]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 have been revised down to 1.15, 1.20, and 1.25 yuan respectively, reflecting a growth of 2.8%, 4.6%, and 4.2% [3][6]. Valuation Metrics - The company is currently valued at a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 6.5 times for 2025, with a target price set at 7.42 yuan. The price-to-book (PB) ratio is at 0.47 times, indicating a significant discount compared to historical averages [3][5][6]. Market Position - As one of the largest investment and construction groups globally, the company is included in major indices such as the CSI 50 and MSCI China A50. The controlling shareholder has increased their stake by 0.27% [5][6].

Downstream Consumption - Real estate sales have seen an expanded decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 41.4% in the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities as of November 9 [7] - In October 2025, nationwide retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 0.8% year-on-year, primarily due to the high base effect from the second half of 2024 and tightening of trade-in policies [8] - The price of live pigs has turned downward, with a week-on-week decrease of 3.1%, while domestic staple grain prices continue to rise [10] Technology & Manufacturing - The electronic industry continues to maintain high prosperity, with the average spot price of DRAM memory reaching $3.336, up 2.2% week-on-week, driven by AI infrastructure demand [20] - Semiconductor sales in China reached $18.69 billion in September 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.0% [22] - The lithium battery industry is experiencing significant growth, with the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate rising by 13.0% week-on-week as of November 7 [45] Upstream Resources - Coal prices have surged, with the price of Q5500 thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port reaching 817 yuan per ton, up 6.1% week-on-week, marking a new high for the year [46] - International metal prices have declined, with SHFE copper and aluminum prices at 85,900 yuan and 21,600 yuan per ton, respectively, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 1.2% and an increase of 1.5% [50] Logistics and Passenger Flow - Passenger demand has decreased on a month-on-month basis, with subway passenger volume down 1.9% week-on-week but up 3.4% year-on-year [59] - Freight logistics demand has also declined, with nationwide highway truck traffic down 2.1% week-on-week, while railway freight volume increased by 3.9% [62] - Port throughput has shown fluctuations, with container throughput at 6.809 million TEUs, up 1.4% week-on-week [65]

Market Overview - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market decreased to 2.0 trillion CNY, with the turnover rate declining, indicating reduced market activity[5] - The proportion of stocks rising increased to 54.77%, with the median weekly return for A-share stocks rising to 0.6%[5] Fund Flows - New issuance of equity funds decreased to 21.84 billion CNY, while foreign capital inflow accelerated, with a net inflow of 8.0 million USD as of November 5[6] - The net buying amount of financing decreased to 11.63 billion CNY, accounting for 10.8% of total trading volume[6] Sector Performance - Foreign capital primarily flowed into the electronics sector, with a net inflow of 63.2 million USD, while financing capital mainly flowed into the power equipment sector, with a net inflow of 68.3 billion CNY[7] - The healthcare equipment sector is expected to benefit from policy-driven market recovery, with significant growth in bidding volumes for new medical equipment[17][20] Economic Indicators - The average price of Brent crude oil was 68.17 USD per barrel in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 13.40%[44] - The construction sector showed signs of recovery, with new home transaction areas in major cities decreasing by 40.6% week-on-week, indicating ongoing challenges in the real estate market[33] Investment Recommendations - The company recommends an overweight position in A/H shares and industrial commodities, suggesting an equity allocation of 45% and a commodity allocation of 10%[9][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 356.97 CNY [6][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the global energy storage market is expected to grow by 40%-50% by 2026, which, combined with the company's increasing share in independent storage and expansion into overseas markets, has led to an upward revision of the company's profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [2][13]. - The company is positioned to benefit significantly from the high demand in the energy storage sector, with a projected EPS of 5.45 CNY for 2025, 13.22 CNY for 2026, and 17.89 CNY for 2027 [13]. - The report notes a substantial increase in the company's revenue and net profit, driven by the booming energy storage industry, with Q3 2025 revenue reaching 3.39 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 124.4%, and net profit of 307 million CNY, up 872.24% year-on-year [13]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 6,982 million CNY in 2023 to 31,981 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27.2% [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 578 million CNY in 2023 to 3,222 million CNY in 2027, indicating a significant growth trajectory [4]. - The company's gross margin is expected to improve, with a Q3 2025 gross margin of 18.64%, up 1.7 percentage points from the previous quarter [13]. Market Position and Trends - The report emphasizes that the company, as a leader in the energy storage sector, is well-positioned to capitalize on the industry's high growth potential, particularly in both domestic and international markets [13]. - The anticipated growth in the global energy storage market is driven by factors such as the development of spot markets, capacity markets, and increasing demand for energy storage solutions in overseas markets [13].

Group 1: Oil and Gas Industry - The oil price is expected to remain volatile in the short term due to mixed factors, including OPEC+ production increases and geopolitical risks from the Russia-Ukraine conflict [3][4][6] - OPEC+ has completed its target of increasing production by 2.2 million barrels per day ahead of schedule, with further increases expected [3][4] - The long-term outlook suggests a downward shift in the oil price equilibrium, with potential for larger declines in extreme scenarios [3][4] Group 2: Shipping Industry - The oil shipping market is experiencing a "super bull market" driven by geopolitical conflicts and increased global oil production, leading to sustained demand for oil transportation [4][6] - Oil tanker profitability is projected to reach a 15-year high in Q4 2025, with expectations for continued strong performance into 2026 [4][6] Group 3: Automotive Industry - The automotive supply chain is increasingly involved in the energy storage sector, with companies like BYD leading in both electric vehicles and energy storage solutions [7][8] - BYD has achieved a cumulative shipment of 40 GWh in energy storage systems, surpassing competitors and establishing a strong market position [7][8] - The synergy between electric vehicle components and energy storage technologies is expected to enhance the competitive edge of companies in this sector [7][8] Group 4: Construction Industry - The Chinese government plans to implement significant infrastructure projects during the 14th Five-Year Plan, focusing on urban renewal and major engineering initiatives [10][12] - The Ministry of Finance emphasizes the need for proactive fiscal policies to support these projects and enhance investment efficiency [10][12] Group 5: Steel Industry - Steel production is declining, which is aiding inventory reduction, with a notable decrease in both consumption and production levels reported [33][35] - The steel industry is expected to stabilize as demand from construction and manufacturing sectors remains steady, despite challenges from the real estate sector [35][36] - The government is implementing policies to reduce production and promote the exit of inefficient capacities, which is anticipated to improve the industry's fundamentals over time [36][37]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 10.80 CNY [6][12]. Core Views - The report highlights the company's rapid revenue growth and continuous improvement in profit quality, indicating a strong long-term growth potential driven by sustained overseas sales, domestic sales resonance, and expansion of the industrial hierarchy [2][12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 47,075 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 13.1%. The revenue is expected to decline by 3.4% in 2024 but rebound with a growth of 14.9% in 2025, reaching 52,253 million CNY [4][13]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 3,506 million CNY in 2023, with a significant increase of 52.0%. The net profit is expected to grow to 5,206 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a 47.9% increase [4][13]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is estimated to be 0.41 CNY in 2023, increasing to 0.60 CNY in 2025 [4][13]. Operational Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 237.156 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 8.06%, and a net profit of 39.20 billion CNY, up by 24.89% [12]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 is 28.10%, while the net margin is 11.05%, showing a slight decrease in gross margin but an increase in net margin compared to the previous year [12]. International Business Growth - The overseas revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 21.313 billion CNY, marking a 20.80% year-on-year increase, accounting for over 57.4% of total revenue [12]. - The company plans to issue H-share convertible bonds worth up to 6 billion CNY to support its globalization strategy and invest in innovative technologies [12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry, indicating a potential increase of over 15% relative to the CSI 300 index [4][10]. Core Insights - Recently, Shanghai AI unicorn MiniMax launched a comprehensive multimodal AI model suite called "All-in-One," with its text model M2 topping global open-source model rankings, marking a significant breakthrough for Chinese AI companies in the multimodal technology sector [2][3]. - The M2 model, featuring a lightweight architecture with 10 billion active parameters (total parameters of 230 billion), achieved a top-five ranking in the global Artificial Analysis (AA) leaderboard, becoming the first Chinese open-source model to enter this elite tier [5]. - M2 sets a new benchmark in model efficiency and cost control, with a reasoning cost as low as $0.53 per million tokens, which is only 8% of Claude 4.5 Sonnet's cost, while its reasoning speed is nearly double that of the latter [5]. - The rapid increase in API call volume post-launch, reaching fourth globally and first among domestic models within five days, validates M2's exceptional balance between high performance and low cost, providing a successful case for the commercialization of domestic models on a global scale [5]. Summary by Sections - **Investment Recommendation**: The report emphasizes the significance of MiniMax's multimodal "All-in-One" model suite, which encompasses text, video, voice, and music technologies, showcasing a complete technical layout aimed at ensuring generation quality and stability [5]. - **Model Performance**: The M2 model's cost-effectiveness and performance have been highlighted, with a reasoning cost of $0.53 per million tokens and a significant increase in API usage, indicating strong market demand [5]. - **Technological Advancements**: MiniMax's commitment to using a complete attention mechanism, despite industry trends favoring simplified versions, underscores its dedication to quality and long-term investment in foundational algorithm research [5].

- **Tracking indicators and their calculation** The report uses two indicators: the proportion of large buy order transaction amount and the proportion of net active buy transaction amount. The large buy order transaction amount proportion reflects the buying behavior of large funds. It is calculated by restoring transaction data into buy and sell orders based on transaction sequence numbers, filtering large orders by transaction volume, and computing the proportion of large buy order transaction amounts to the total daily transaction amount. The net active buy transaction amount proportion reflects investors' active buying behavior. It is calculated by identifying whether each transaction is an active buy or sell based on transaction markers, subtracting active sell amounts from active buy amounts, and computing the proportion of net active buy amounts to the total daily transaction amount[7] - **Individual stock tracking** The report provides rankings of stocks based on the 5-day average proportion of large buy order transaction amounts and net active buy transaction amounts. For example, the top-ranked stock for large buy order transaction amount proportion is "海陆重工" with a value of 93.0% and a time-series percentile of 100.0%. Similarly, the top-ranked stock for net active buy transaction amount proportion is "力聚热能" with a value of 21.2% and a time-series percentile of 100.0%[9][10] - **Broad-based index tracking** The report calculates the 5-day average proportions of large buy order transaction amounts and net active buy transaction amounts for major broad-based indices. For instance, the "上证指数" has a large buy order transaction amount proportion of 73.6% (percentile: 66.0%) and a net active buy transaction amount proportion of -4.1% (percentile: 99.6%)[11][12] - **Sector tracking** The report calculates the 5-day average proportions of large buy order transaction amounts and net active buy transaction amounts for various sectors. For example, the "石油石化" sector has a large buy order transaction amount proportion of 78.3% (percentile: 100.0%) and a net active buy transaction amount proportion of 5.0% (percentile: 27.0%)[13] - **ETF tracking** The report ranks ETFs based on the 5-day average proportions of large buy order transaction amounts and net active buy transaction amounts. For example, the top-ranked ETF for large buy order transaction amount proportion is "国泰上证 10 年期国债 ETF" with a value of 93.7% and a time-series percentile of 100.0%. Similarly, the top-ranked ETF for net active buy transaction amount proportion is "国泰上证 10 年期国债 ETF" with a value of 24.7% and a time-series percentile of 84.4%[15][16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [6][11]. Core Views - The traditional business is recovering growth, while emerging businesses are gradually ramping up, leading to improved profitability quarter by quarter [2]. - The company achieved a revenue of 2.544 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 79.92 million yuan, marking a significant turnaround from losses [11]. - The target price is set at 31.26 yuan, reflecting an upward adjustment based on the company's emerging business capacity and asset utilization improvements [11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to be 3.667 billion yuan in 2023, decreasing to 3.012 billion yuan in 2024, before recovering to 3.495 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 16.0% [4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decline to -288 million yuan in 2024, before rebounding to 121 million yuan in 2025, with a significant year-on-year growth of 142.0% [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.22 yuan in 2025, increasing to 0.88 yuan by 2027 [4]. Business Performance - Revenue from small molecule APIs reached 2.350 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, up 19.4% year-on-year, while emerging business revenue was 190 million yuan, up 23.4% [11]. - The company reported a gross margin of 28.86% in Q1-Q3 2025, an increase of 5.6 percentage points year-on-year [11]. - The overseas market revenue was 1.805 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17%, while the domestic market revenue was 739 million yuan, up 21% [11]. Valuation Metrics - The company is currently trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 50.34, with an expected P/E of 111.22 in 2025 [4]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is 2.5 at the current price [7]. - The company has a net asset return rate (ROE) of 4.6% in 2023, projected to improve to 7.8% by 2027 [4].