| [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘一鸣(分析师) | 021-23154145 | liuyiming@gtht.com | S0880525040050 | | 房乔华(分析师) | 021-23185699 | fangqiaohua@gtht.com | S0880525040065 | 本报告导读： 股 票 研 究 2025 年净利润实现扭亏为盈 继峰股份(603997) 继峰股份公告点评 [Table_Balance] 资产负债表摘要(LF) 继峰股份发布 2025 年业绩预告，预计 2025 年归母净利润 41,000 万元到 49,500 万 元，实现扭亏为盈，我们认为公司在经过多年整合后欧洲经营成本显著下降，同时 乘用车座椅业务规模效应显现，盈利能力大幅增长，公司有望迎来业绩释放的拐点。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

茅台动销批价上行，零食迎接备货行情 [Table_Industry] 食品饮料 ——食品饮料行业周报 | | | 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 食品饮料《白酒筑底，政策、批价双重催化》 2026.01.30 食品饮料《食饮获配比例回落，乳品、零食板块 加配》2026.01.29 食品饮料《白酒探底，餐供积极》2026.01.25 食品饮料《茅台市场化转型，消费触底反弹可 期》2026.01.18 食品饮料《渠道变革，精酿崛起》2026.01.13 证 券 研 究 报 告 股 票 研 究 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 訾猛(分析师) | 021-38676442 | zimeng@gtht.com | S0880513120002 | | 颜慧菁(分析师) | 021-23183952 | yanhuijing@gtht.com | S0880525040022 | | 张宇轩(分析师) | 021-23154172 | zhangyuxuan ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Sentiment Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The sentiment model is designed to capture the market's emotional state by analyzing various market indicators[2][14] - **Model Construction Process**: - The sentiment model score is calculated based on the proportion of stocks hitting their daily limit up or down, and the subsequent returns of stocks that hit their limit down the previous day[14] - The sentiment model score is 0 out of 5, indicating a negative sentiment[14] - **Model Evaluation**: The sentiment model indicates a pessimistic market sentiment[2][14] 2. Model Name: High-Frequency Capital Flow Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses high-frequency capital flow data to generate buy and sell signals for major indices[2][14] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model tracks the capital flow trends for major indices such as CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and CSI 2000[14] - Signals are generated based on the direction of capital flows: positive for buy signals and negative for sell signals[14] - For the past week, the signals were positive for CSI 300 and CSI 500, and negative for CSI 1000 and CSI 2000[2][14] - **Model Evaluation**: The model indicates that CSI 300 and CSI 500 are in a buying cycle, while CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 are in a selling cycle[2][14] Model Backtesting Results Sentiment Model - **Sentiment Model Score**: 0 out of 5[14] High-Frequency Capital Flow Model - **CSI 300**: Positive signal[14] - **CSI 500**: Positive signal[14] - **CSI 1000**: Negative signal[14] - **CSI 2000**: Negative signal[14] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Small Market Cap Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the degree of crowding in small-cap stocks[18] - **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor's crowding degree is calculated using valuation spreads, pairwise correlations, long-term return reversals, and factor volatility[18] - The composite score for the small market cap factor is 0.05[19] - **Factor Evaluation**: The crowding degree of the small market cap factor has decreased[18] 2. Factor Name: Low Valuation Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the degree of crowding in low-valuation stocks[18] - **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor's crowding degree is calculated using the same metrics as the small market cap factor[18] - The composite score for the low valuation factor is -0.28[19] - **Factor Evaluation**: The crowding degree of the low valuation factor is relatively low[18] 3. Factor Name: High Profitability Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the degree of crowding in high-profitability stocks[18] - **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor's crowding degree is calculated using the same metrics as the small market cap factor[18] - The composite score for the high profitability factor is 0.20[19] - **Factor Evaluation**: The crowding degree of the high profitability factor is moderate[18] 4. Factor Name: High Growth Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the degree of crowding in high-growth stocks[18] - **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor's crowding degree is calculated using the same metrics as the small market cap factor[18] - The composite score for the high growth factor is 0.53[19] - **Factor Evaluation**: The crowding degree of the high growth factor is relatively high[18] Factor Backtesting Results Small Market Cap Factor - **Crowding Degree**: 0.05[19] Low Valuation Factor - **Crowding Degree**: -0.28[19] High Profitability Factor - **Crowding Degree**: 0.20[19] High Growth Factor - **Crowding Degree**: 0.53[19]

股 票 研 究 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.01 战略投资者拟扩围，利好银行长期资本补充 [Table_Industry] 商业银行 本报告导读： 证监会拟扩大可参与定增的战略投资者类型，并明确最低持股比例要求，利好上市 银行长期资本补充、金融机构合作深化，以及银行理财多元资产投资转型。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 商业银行《银行快报陆续披露，25A 业绩稳健增 长》2026.01.25 商业银行《全年增量 3.34 万亿元，公募基金配置 占比提升 2.1pct 至 5.1%》2026.01.25 商业银行《国有大行投放力度较大，不良压力或 企稳》2026.01.23 商业银行《主动基金环比持平，被动基金增持》 2026.01.23 商业银行《利息净收入增速转正，业绩延续改善 趋势》2026.01.19 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 行 银行周报（2026/1/26-2026/1/30） | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马婷婷(分析 ...

股 票 研 究 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.01 特斯拉加速 AI 转型，将发布第三代人形机器人 Optimus [Table_Industry] 汽车 汽车行业周报（2026/1/26-2026/1/30） | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘一鸣(分析师) | 021-23154145 | liuyiming@gtht.com | S0880525040050 | | 潘若婵(分析师) | 021-23154145 | panruochan@gtht.com | S0880525110006 | 本报告导读： 近一周，申万汽车指数下跌 5%，新能源整车指数下跌 5%，汽车零部件指数下跌 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 汽车《12 月乘用车销量同环比下降，预计 26 年 销量同比微增》2026.01.25 汽车《国内人形机器人持续放量，Robotaxi 产业 化加速》2026.01.24 汽车《12 月重卡顺利收官，收获同比"九连 增"》2026.01.23 汽车 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - The media index (Shenwan) increased by 0.21%, ranking 10th among 31 industries, outperforming the CSI 300 index which rose by 0.08% [8] - The report suggests investing in vertical segments with high growth potential, recommending companies such as Wanda Film, Perfect World, and Mango Super Media [8] Summary by Sections DeepSeek Model Release and Spring Festival Film Schedule - DeepSeek launched a new document recognition model, DeepSeek-OCR2, which significantly enhances image recognition capabilities through a novel "Causal Flow" visual reasoning logic [9] - As of now, six films have been scheduled for the 2026 Spring Festival, showcasing a diverse range of genres including drama, comedy, crime, action, martial arts, and animation [15] Industry and Company News - The report highlights key developments in AI and the internet, including Alibaba's AI chip launch and Tencent's AI-powered input method [20] - In the cinema sector, the film "Star River Dream" has been officially scheduled for the 2026 Spring Festival [22] - The gaming industry is also active, with Nintendo announcing a classic game library for its Switch Online service [22] Company Performance and Recommendations - The report provides a valuation table for recommended companies, indicating their expected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2024 to 2026, with all recommended companies rated as "Overweight" [16][17] - Notable companies include: - Wanda Film: Market cap of 250.03 billion, PE of 19.41 for 2024 [16] - Perfect World: Market cap of 365.49 billion, PE of 44.86 for 2024 [16] - Mango Super Media: Market cap of 532.40 billion, PE of 32.36 for 2024 [16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 73.10 CNY [6]. Core Insights - The company has released its earnings forecast for 2025, projecting a net profit attributable to shareholders between 1.67 billion to 1.85 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 54.0% to 70.6% [13]. - The company is expected to face short-term pressure due to the transition to new national standards for electric two-wheelers in Q4 2025, while the lawnmower segment is anticipated to maintain high growth [2][13]. - The forecasted net profit for Q4 2025 is expected to be between -0.12 billion to +0.06 billion CNY, indicating a significant decline compared to the previous year [13]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 10.22 billion CNY in 2023 to 21.41 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 50.8% [5]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 598 million CNY in 2023 to 1.76 billion CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 62.4% [5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 8.29 CNY in 2023 to 24.40 CNY in 2025 [5]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to reach 37.9% in 2025, up from 11.0% in 2023 [5]. Business Outlook - The company is focusing on the electric two-wheeler market, which is expected to recover in Q1 2026 after facing challenges in Q4 2025 due to new regulations [13]. - The lawnmower segment is expected to maintain strong growth, with the company accelerating shipments in response to market demands [13]. - Other business segments, including scooters and balance bikes, are projected to show steady growth, contributing to the company's long-term resilience [13].

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Buy" [5] Core Insights - The demand for semiconductor equipment is increasing due to AI advancements, with leading companies like ASML and KLA reporting significant order growth. ASML's fourth-quarter orders reached €13.2 billion, nearly double market expectations, while KLA's revenue for Q2 2026 was $3.297 billion, a 7.2% increase year-over-year [5] - The humanoid robotics sector is rapidly advancing, with companies like Zhongqing and Zhiyuan making strides in space exploration, indicating a strong integration of robotics and aerospace industries [5] - The 2026 Beijing International Commercial Aerospace Exhibition highlights China's commitment to developing its commercial space industry, showcasing the latest advancements and policies to support satellite data utilization [5] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The mechanical equipment sector saw a decline of 3.16% from January 26 to January 30, 2026, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 index, which increased by 0.08% [8] - The mechanical equipment sub-sector indices showed varied performance, with other automation equipment leading with a 2.20% increase [9] Semiconductor Equipment Industry - Semiconductor sales reached $75.28 billion in November 2025, reflecting a 3.53% month-over-month increase [77] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose to 8320.39 points, a weekly increase of 3.29% [81] Robotics and AI Infrastructure - Recommended stocks in humanoid robotics include Hengli Hydraulic, Changying Precision, and Zhaowei Electric, while AI infrastructure recommendations include Ice Wheel Environment and Hanzhong Precision [5] - The humanoid robotics sector is positioned to meet the demands of the aerospace industry, creating a beneficial cycle of technology validation and industry growth [5] Engineering Machinery - Recommended stocks in engineering machinery include Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG Machinery, and Zoomlion Heavy Industry [5] - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the engineering machinery sector, supported by ongoing infrastructure investments [5] Export Chain - Recommended stocks in the export chain include Honghua Digital Science, Giant Star Technology, and Jack Technology [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, recommending investment in AI computing, cloud vendors, AI applications, and AI social directions [5]. Core Insights - The AI industry chain is accelerating across the board, with upstream storage continuing to show high prosperity. ClawdBot (now renamed Moltbot) is reshaping the agent experience, and cloud vendors are entering the ROI assessment phase [2][5]. - ClawdBot demonstrates three innovations: 1) Permission breakthrough allowing AI models to be deployed on local edge hardware with root access, ensuring user data remains local; 2) Proactive interaction, running 24/7 and notifying users of specific events; 3) UI restructuring, integrating into frequently used messaging apps to lower usage barriers [5][8]. - The capital investment of SaaS companies is transitioning into the ROI assessment phase, with Meta's AI-driven advertising business exceeding expectations, projecting Q1 2026 revenue between $53.5 billion and $56.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 26% to 34% [9][5]. - Storage continues to thrive, with SanDisk reporting an adjusted EPS of $6.20 for Q4 2025, a 404% increase year-on-year, significantly above market expectations [10][5]. Summary by Sections AI Computing and Cloud Vendors - The report highlights the significant demand for cloud computing resources driven by ClawdBot's operational needs, predicting exponential growth in token consumption and cloud computing requirements [5][8]. - Major cloud service providers like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are expected to benefit from this shift, especially as they transition from CapEx-driven pricing to ROI assessment [9][5]. AI Applications - The report emphasizes the potential of AI applications, particularly in advertising and content generation, with Meta's AI tools achieving an annual revenue scale of $10 billion [9][5]. - Microsoft’s Azure revenue is projected to grow by 38% year-on-year, with M365 Copilot paid seats increasing by 160% [9][5]. Storage Sector - NAND and DRAM sectors are highlighted for their robust performance, with SanDisk and SK Hynix reporting significant profit increases and strong demand forecasts for AI-related storage solutions [10][5]. - Samsung anticipates a threefold increase in HBM revenue by 2026, indicating the critical role of storage in AI architecture [10][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies for investment: NVIDIA, TSMC, ASML, and Broadcom in the computing sector; Microsoft, Amazon, and Google in cloud services; and Apple, Qualcomm, Lenovo, and Tesla in AI applications [27][28].

机械行业周报 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 肖群稀(分析师) | 0755-23976830 | xiaoqunxi@gtht.com | S0880522120001 | | 黄龙(分析师) | 021-38031028 | huanglong@gtht.com | S0880525070027 | 本报告导读： 上周（2026/1/26-2026/1/30）AI 推动半导体设备需求不断增加，中国人形机器人集体 "问天"，商业航天政策支持与产业布局密集。 股 票 研 究 全球半导体设备龙头财报亮眼，北京国际商业航天展览会开幕 [Table_Industry] 机械行业 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 行 业 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 机械行业《Figure 发布 Helix 02 模型，人形机器 人全身自主控制实现突破》2026.01.30 机械行业《SpaceX 与特斯拉规划部署太阳能产 能，光伏产业链迎发展新机遇》2026.01.26 机械行业《液态气周均价环比 ...