Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Jiangnan Buyi, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance [11]. Core Insights - Jiangnan Buyi achieved a revenue of 5.55 billion RMB in FY2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5%. The net profit for the same period was 0.89 billion RMB, also up by 5% [11]. - The company aims to achieve a sales target of 10 billion RMB by FY2026, focusing on a "fan economy" strategy to drive growth [3][11]. - The report highlights a strong performance in emerging brands, with a revenue increase of 107% in FY25, while mature and growth brands saw modest increases of 2% and a slight decline of 0.5%, respectively [11]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - FY2024: 5.24 billion RMB - FY2025: 5.55 billion RMB - FY2026E: 6.00 billion RMB - FY2027E: 6.45 billion RMB - FY2028E: 6.93 billion RMB - Growth rates: 17.3% (2024), 5.9% (2025), 8.2% (2026), 7.5% (2027), 7.4% (2028) [5]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: - FY2024: 0.85 billion RMB - FY2025: 0.89 billion RMB - FY2026E: 0.90 billion RMB - FY2027E: 0.97 billion RMB - FY2028E: 1.05 billion RMB - Growth rates: 36.7% (2024), 5.1% (2025), 0.9% (2026), 8.0% (2027), 8.3% (2028) [5]. - **Valuation Metrics**: - PE ratios for FY2025, FY2026, FY2027 are 8.38, 9.15, and 11.72 respectively, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to peers [5][12]. Market Data - The stock price range over the past 52 weeks is between 13.50 and 22.12 HKD, with a current market capitalization of 10.08 billion HKD [8]. - The report notes that over 80% of retail sales are contributed by active members, with 560,000 active members recorded [11]. Strategic Focus - Jiangnan Buyi is committed to maintaining stable discounts and enhancing customer loyalty through its fan economy strategy, which is expected to support its ambitious sales targets [3][11]. - The company plans to continue high dividend payouts, with a total dividend of 1.38 HKD per share for FY25, corresponding to a dividend yield of over 6% [11].

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant decline in US Treasury yields, driven by rising global risk aversion and expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve due to weakening economic data [7][9][27] - European long-term government bond yields have reached near-decade highs, particularly in the UK, France, and Germany, influenced by fiscal expansion and political uncertainties, leading to a sell-off in European bonds [8][9][10] - The report suggests a shift in global capital flows, indicating increased risk aversion and a preference for high-quality, liquid bonds amid diverging monetary policies across major economies [8][9][10] Group 2 - The US Treasury yield curve has shifted downward, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.08% and the 30-year yield decreasing by 16.8 basis points to 4.76%, reflecting heightened demand for safe-haven assets [9][10][11] - In contrast, UK 30-year government bond yields have surged to their highest levels since 1998, with significant increases in yields for French and German bonds as well, indicating a divergence in bond market performance [9][10][11] - The report notes that Asian government bonds have remained stable, with limited yield fluctuations, highlighting a risk diversion effect in the market [9][10][11] Group 3 - The issuance of credit bonds has primarily involved high-rated entities, focusing on sectors such as infrastructure, real estate, and transportation, with maturities mainly between 1-3 years [17][19] - The offshore RMB bond market has shown a slight widening of the yield spread between dim sum bonds and domestic bonds, indicating a stable long-term outlook for offshore RMB liquidity [15][16][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining a diversified credit exposure, particularly in high-rated corporate bonds and sovereign debt, while being cautious of over-concentration in any single sector or credit rating [33][34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [11][13][20] - The target price is set at 32.89 CNY [11][13] Core Insights - The company is experiencing high growth in its FWA (Fixed Wireless Access) business and has entered mass delivery of AI edge and robotic products [2][13] - The company plans to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to raise funds for further investments [2][13] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 82.28 billion CNY, 99.72 billion CNY, and 119.62 billion CNY respectively, with net profits of 5.19 billion CNY, 6.80 billion CNY, and 8.53 billion CNY [13][14] - The company has launched its AI edge technology platform, Fibocom AI Stack, and is focusing on expanding its AI and robotics business [13][14] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 7,716 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 36.7% [4][14] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is expected to be 564 million CNY, reflecting a 54.5% increase [4][14] - The company’s gross margin for the first half of 2025 is reported at 16.42%, down 5.16 percentage points year-on-year [13][14] - The company has a net asset return rate of 18.0% for 2023, projected to be 18.5% in 2024 [4][14] Business Performance - The FWA business is expected to see significant growth, particularly in the Indian market, where 5G penetration is still low [13][14] - The company is actively pursuing new clients in the automotive sector and is transitioning from 4G to 5G modules [13][14] - The report highlights the successful mass production of robotic solutions, including a lawnmower robot and a new RTK visual fusion positioning solution [13][14]

Macroeconomic Insights - The U.S. added only 22,000 non-farm jobs in August, significantly below market expectations, with prior months' data revised down by 21,000 jobs[13] - The unemployment rate is rising, but the labor participation rate is also increasing, indicating a fragile balance in the job market[13] - Eurozone GDP showed a slowdown in Q2 2025, while inflation remains stable, with the unemployment rate decreasing slightly[9] Market Trends - The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.36%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.18% during the week of August 29 to September 5, 2025[8] - Commodity prices showed mixed results, with gold prices increasing by 4.04% and Brent crude oil prices decreasing by 3.60%[8] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market decreased to 2.6 trillion CNY, indicating a decline in market activity[15] Investment Strategies - The recommendation for September is to overweight equities, suggesting a 55% allocation to equities, with specific allocations to A-shares (9.63%), Hong Kong stocks (9.63%), and U.S. stocks (19.25%)[29] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors benefiting from policy changes and improving supply-demand dynamics, particularly in renewable energy and AI applications[20][21] Sector Performance - The machinery and automotive sectors saw significant inflows, while the electronics and computer sectors experienced notable outflows of 33.9 billion CNY and 33.3 billion CNY, respectively[17] - The report highlights a 14.8% year-on-year increase in domestic excavator sales in August, indicating a recovery in the manufacturing sector[5] Risk Factors - Potential risks include geopolitical tensions affecting commodity prices and the impact of U.S. political pressures on the Federal Reserve's independence[9][12] - The report warns of uncertainties in global economic conditions and the potential for further declines in consumer demand[26]

北证交易活跃度回升，北证 50 指数领涨 市场 ——北交所周报（2025 年 9 月第 1 周） 本报告导读： 9 月第 1 周 A 股市场沪深两市震荡调整，周二到周四持续回落，周五回暖，北证 50 指数周五大幅上涨 5.15%，单周累计上涨 2.79%，领涨市场。与此同时，北证交易 活跃度回升，日均成交金额环比回升 9.36%至 359.84 亿元。当周北交所无股票招股， 无新股上市。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 新股精要—全国性的高值医疗器械流通商建发致 新 2025.09.09 IPO 月度数据一览（2025 年 8 月） 2025.09.05 北证 50 指数震荡回调，北交所交易活跃度有所回 落 2025.09.02 新股精要—智能配电设备领先生产企业昊创瑞通 2025.09.01 北证 50 指数创历史新高，北证交易活跃度大幅提 升 2025.08.26 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 | | | | [Table_Authors] | | | --- | --- | | | 王政之(分析师) | | | 021-38674944 | | | wan ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 68.56 CNY [6][12] Core Views - The company has achieved steady revenue growth in H1 2025, driven by its digital transformation and the potential of its Athena digital native platform, alongside expanding AI applications and overseas business opportunities [2][12] - The company is expected to maintain growth momentum, with projected revenues of 26.58 billion CNY, 30.25 billion CNY, and 33.73 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a strong demand for AI infrastructure and industry-specific solutions [12][13] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 2,228 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 11.7%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 150 million CNY, reflecting a growth of 12.3% [4][13] - The company’s revenue is expected to grow to 2,658 million CNY in 2025, representing a 14.0% increase from 2024 [4][14] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.55 CNY in 2023 to 0.72 CNY in 2025 [4][13] Business Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 10.45 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 4.08%, and a net profit of 0.45 million CNY, up 6.09% [12][13] - The AI business revenue saw a significant increase of 125.91% year-on-year, indicating strong growth in this segment [12][13] - The company has successfully expanded its international operations, particularly in Southeast Asia, serving approximately 800 enterprise clients and achieving a revenue growth of 60.87% in this region [12][13]

Core Insights - The report analyzes the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts on various asset classes, categorizing them into two types: accommodative cuts and preventive cuts, with the former occurring during economic downturns and the latter aimed at preventing potential recessions [4][8][9] - Historical data shows that equity assets tend to perform better during preventive cuts, while they generally decline during accommodative cuts [4][9][11] - The report highlights that U.S. Treasury yields typically decrease following accommodative cuts, while their behavior during preventive cuts is less predictable [11][22] - Currency movements are mixed initially after rate cuts, but diverge significantly after 2-3 months, with the dollar often weakening during accommodative cuts and strengthening during preventive cuts [28] - Commodity prices show a weaker correlation with rate cuts, although gold tends to perform better during accommodative cuts compared to preventive cuts [29][32] Equity Market Analysis - Equity assets have a higher success rate during preventive cuts, with most equity markets, including the U.S. and A-shares, showing positive performance [9][14] - The report notes that the performance of A-shares has a degree of independence from U.S. markets, particularly during rate cut periods [9][16] - Historical performance indicates that after a month of preventive cuts, the likelihood of equity price increases rises significantly [14][20] Bond Market Analysis - U.S. Treasury yields generally decline after the first rate cut, with average decreases of 5 basis points (BP) within 30 days [22][23] - The report indicates that the behavior of Chinese bonds tends to follow a similar pattern, with yields typically decreasing shortly after rate cuts [22][26] - However, the report cautions that the relationship between bond yields in Europe and Japan with U.S. rate cuts is less clear [11][24] Currency Market Analysis - The dollar's performance post-rate cut is inconsistent in the initial months, but shows a tendency to strengthen during preventive cuts and weaken during accommodative cuts [28] - The report highlights that the Chinese yuan's movements are relatively independent of U.S. rate cuts, with a tendency to depreciate during preventive cuts and appreciate during accommodative cuts [28] Commodity Market Analysis - Gold prices tend to rise more significantly during accommodative cuts, with historical data showing substantial increases in the months following such cuts [29][32] - In contrast, oil prices do not exhibit a clear relationship with rate cuts, suggesting that other factors, such as supply and demand dynamics, play a more significant role [31]

Group 1: Macro Insights - In August 2025, China's export growth rate was 4.4% year-on-year, down from 7.2%, while import growth was 1.3%, down from 4.1% [5][6] - The trade surplus has rebounded, with a notable shift in export structure towards ASEAN countries and a decrease in exports to Latin America due to new tariffs [7][8] - The impact of re-export regulations from ASEAN countries is a key risk, but the overall effect on China's export growth is expected to be limited [7][8] Group 2: Strategy Observations - The Federal Reserve is signaling a potential interest rate cut due to concerns over inflation and a cooling labor market, which could expand China's monetary policy space [12][14] - Recent policies focus on market-oriented reforms in the electronic information manufacturing sector and the promotion of AI and satellite communication industries [13][14] Group 3: Automotive Industry - In August 2025, China's wholesale passenger car sales reached 2.409 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12% and a month-on-month increase of 8% [23][24] - The new energy vehicle segment saw a significant year-on-year increase of 23%, with sales reaching 1.292 million units [23][24] - The upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" period is expected to boost sales, supported by new model launches and favorable policies [23][24] Group 4: Durable Consumer Goods - The furniture sector is showing signs of bottoming out, with leading companies expanding product lines and enhancing customer engagement through various channels [27][29] - Government policies aimed at stimulating consumption and supporting the furniture industry are expected to provide a favorable environment for growth [28][29] Group 5: Cultural Industry - The publishing industry is stable, with a notable increase in net profit due to tax incentives, despite a slight decline in revenue [31][32] - Companies are actively investing in AI and intellectual property, with recommendations for high dividend yield stocks in the sector [31][32] Group 6: Oil Industry - OPEC+ is considering further production increases, which may lead to an imbalance in oil supply and demand as the peak season ends [35][36] - Investment recommendations focus on leading companies that can benefit from the expected recovery in downstream demand and improved market conditions [36][37] Group 7: Construction Industry - The issuance of special bonds has increased, while net financing from urban investment bonds has decreased, indicating a mixed funding environment for construction projects [38][40] - New housing transaction volumes have declined, reflecting ongoing challenges in the real estate market [40][41]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights significant policy developments aimed at enhancing sustainable practices within the industry, including the revision of sustainability reporting guidelines by the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the introduction of a nitrogen oxide emission control action plan [6][9][10] - The establishment of a resource recycling demonstration base in Tianjin marks a significant step towards a circular economy, aiming to create a zero-carbon park and integrate various green technologies [17][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) practices, with notable achievements such as the Shenzhen State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission's social responsibility report receiving a five-star rating [20][21] Policy Developments - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has opened public consultation on revised guidelines for sustainability reporting, focusing on environmental issues such as pollutant emissions, energy use, and water resource management [6][8] - A joint action plan by three departments aims to reduce nitrogen oxide emissions in key industrial sectors by 2030, setting ambitious targets for emission reductions and promoting technological innovation [9][10][12] Industry Trends - A three-year nationwide action plan has been launched to strengthen bird protection, involving 17 departments and focusing on monitoring, enforcement, and public education [15][16] - The first resource recycling demonstration base in China has begun trial operations in Tianjin, aiming to establish a leading zero-carbon park and promote circular economy practices [17][19] - The Shenzhen State-owned Assets report showcases the city's commitment to social responsibility and sustainable development, achieving a five-star rating for its comprehensive disclosure [20][21] International Events - The Shanghai Cooperation Organization has committed to expanding practical cooperation in sustainable investment among member states [23] - The world's largest iceberg, A23a, is disintegrating due to climate change, highlighting the ongoing impacts of global warming [24][25] - Denmark has received approval for a significant national aid package to build new forests, aiming to restore agricultural land to nature by 2045 [26] Corporate Developments - The first cross-border renewable energy project in Asia has commenced full commercial operation, enhancing energy cooperation between China and Laos [27][28] - Yingkang Life has achieved the highest ESG rating of AAA, reflecting its commitment to sustainable practices and social responsibility [29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [6][13]. Core Views - The company has entered a performance contribution phase with its local branch network, while exploring new expansion models through acquisitions and franchises outside the province. The impact of the dental implant procurement has passed, and the orthodontic business is stabilizing and recovering [2][13]. - The company achieved a revenue of 1.448 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.68%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 321 million yuan, up 3.67% year-on-year [13]. - The report adjusts the earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 to 1.20, 1.29, and 1.41 yuan, respectively, and sets a target price of 48.48 yuan based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 40.5X for 2025 [13]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 2.847 billion yuan in 2023 to 3.363 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 6.2% [4][14]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 500 million yuan in 2023 to 629 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 8.8% [4][14]. - The company operates 89 medical institutions with 4,452 professional medical personnel and over 3100 dental treatment units, serving 1.7322 million outpatient visits in the first half of 2025 [13]. Business Performance - The revenue from the company's various business segments in the first half of 2025 includes: dental implants (255 million yuan), orthodontics (229 million yuan), pediatrics (236 million yuan), restoration (230 million yuan), and comprehensive services (394 million yuan), with year-on-year growth rates of 0.02%, 7.75%, -1.48%, 3.59%, and 2.44%, respectively [13]. - The company has established five regional groups in Zhejiang Province, enhancing its penetration and service capabilities through a "regional general hospital + branch" structure [13]. Technology and Innovation - The company utilizes AI technology through its self-developed MindHub platform, which supports clinical diagnosis, patient services, and operational management, enhancing efficiency and aiding in further expansion [13].