每日市场观察 【市场回顾】 市场概况：2 月 6 日，市场低开高走后，尾盘再度回落翻绿。 截至收 盘，沪指跌 0.25%，深成指跌 0.33%，创业板指跌 0.73%。 【资金面】 2026 年 2 月 9 日 【今日关注】 周五两市总体呈现低开高走后回落走势。截至收盘，沪指跌 0.25%，深 成指跌 0.33%，创业板指数跌 0.73%。板块方面，采掘、能源金属、珠 宝首饰、电池、化工化纤、石油、光伏设备等涨幅居前；商业百货、 酿酒、旅游酒店、航天航空、文化传媒、航空机场等板块跌幅较大。 两市涨多跌少，其中上涨股票 2609 只，下跌股票数量 2475 只；沪深 两市总成交金额超 2.14 万亿，环比继续小幅减少。 沪指低开高走收假阳线勉强站上 5 日均线，深成指则表现更弱盘中创 近期新低。两市成交量持续萎缩，交投清淡。在这一弱市震荡过程中， 频繁交易只会提高持股成本。市场需要明确方向：要么以放量长阳方 式向上突破扭转 5 日、10 日均线下行局面；要么下探 60 日均线附近寻 求支撑。 牛市中资源为王，产品涨价提升业绩自然吸引资金推动股价上扬。近 期地缘政治紧张引起原油价格走高、TDI 等化工原料价格上涨 ...

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.64%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.44%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.55%[1] - A total of 1,602 stocks rose while 3,515 stocks declined, indicating a bearish market trend[1] - The total trading volume in the two markets exceeded 2.17 trillion yuan, showing a significant decrease compared to previous sessions[1] Sector Analysis - Sectors such as beauty care, tourism and hotels, banking, and consumer goods showed positive performance, while precious metals, photovoltaic equipment, and energy metals faced significant declines[1] - The banking sector is currently at a low point and may experience a technical rebound in the short term[1] Policy and Economic Indicators - The Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments issued a "Spring Festival Special Activity Plan" to boost consumption during the holiday season, particularly in retail and tourism sectors[1] - The China Machinery Industry Federation forecasts a growth rate of approximately 5.5% for the machinery industry in 2026, with significant contributions from the automotive sector, which is expected to grow by 11.5%[7][8] Fund Dynamics - Public funds have distributed over 33 billion yuan in dividends this year, with equity funds accounting for nearly 80% of the total[12] - The total trading volume of ETFs reached 586.79 billion yuan, with stock ETFs contributing 163.6 billion yuan and bond ETFs 273.25 billion yuan[13]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.29%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.19%, and the ChiNext Index gained 1.86% on February 3, 2026[3] - A total of 4,646 stocks rose while 520 stocks fell, with total trading volume exceeding 2.54 trillion yuan, slightly down from the previous period[1] Sector Highlights - Key sectors showing strong performance included shipbuilding, photovoltaic equipment, small metals, glass fiber, engineering machinery, communication equipment, and aerospace, while banking, insurance, and liquor sectors experienced slight adjustments[1] - The photovoltaic equipment and aerospace sectors saw significant gains due to expectations surrounding the merger of SpaceX and xAI, indicating potential for increased investor interest[1] Capital Flow - On February 3, net inflows into the Shanghai Stock Exchange amounted to 40.933 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange saw net inflows of 36.253 billion yuan[4] - The top three sectors for capital inflow were photovoltaic equipment, communication equipment, and IT services, while industrial metals, securities, and precious metals saw the largest outflows[4] Policy Developments - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) emphasized the need to accelerate the cultivation of leading technology enterprises and "specialized, sophisticated" small giants, aiming for a modern industrial system[5][6] - SASAC plans to implement a "one enterprise, one policy" assessment approach in 2026 to enhance the management of income distribution and promote high-quality development[7] Industry Dynamics - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association proposed expanding the national copper strategic reserve and exploring commercial reserve mechanisms for copper concentrate[9] - Shanghai aims to accelerate major industrial projects in integrated circuits, biomedicine, and artificial intelligence, while supporting the development of smart connected vehicles and aerospace industries[9]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.48%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.69%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.46% on February 2, 2026[1][4] - Total trading volume in the two markets exceeded 2.58 trillion yuan, showing a significant decrease compared to previous periods[1] Sector Performance - Notable gains were seen in the electric grid equipment and liquor sectors, while significant declines were observed in precious metals, mining, fertilizers, coal, non-ferrous metals, semiconductors, and steel[1][2] - The net outflow of funds from the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 458.99 billion yuan, and from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange was 348.92 billion yuan on February 2, 2026[5] Investment Insights - The market is currently experiencing a downward trend, with a focus on the support level near the 60-day moving average as investors await stabilization opportunities[2] - AI applications are expected to be a key theme in the stock market this year, with related sectors such as cultural media, AI marketing, and software development likely to become hotspots[2] Economic Indicators - The electronic information manufacturing industry is projected to grow by 10.6% year-on-year in 2025, with significant production declines in mobile phones and microcomputers[6][7] - The duty-free shopping market in Hainan has shown strong growth, with cumulative shopping amounts reaching 100.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.32%[8] Fund Dynamics - In January 2026, equity ETFs experienced a net outflow of nearly 800 billion yuan, with 12 ETFs seeing outflows exceeding 110 billion yuan each[13] - A total of 123 new funds were established in January, raising over 120.2 billion yuan, marking a significant increase in fundraising activity[14]

Market Overview - On February 2, 2026, both stock indices closed lower with a trading volume of 2.86 trillion, a decrease of approximately 400 billion from the previous trading day[1] - The coal, communication, and agriculture sectors saw minor gains, while non-ferrous metals, food and beverage, real estate, computer, and military industries experienced significant declines[1] - The market showed a wide fluctuation with a V-shaped intraday trend, influenced by the overnight volatility in non-ferrous metals, leading to a significant drop in the non-ferrous sector[1] Industry Trends - The technology and non-ferrous sectors are currently in a consolidation phase, resulting in a lack of a leading sector to drive the market[1] - The communication sector, despite maintaining an upward technical pattern, faces skepticism regarding the sustainability of its rebound due to previous substantial gains and lack of valuation advantages[1] Investment Insights - The market is expected to enter a weak consolidation phase, suggesting a need for cautious positioning in portfolios[1] - Precious metals and non-ferrous metals are in a high-level fluctuation phase, making it unsuitable for aggressive buying; however, potential investment opportunities may arise if there is a stabilization after a pullback[1] Fund Flow - On January 30, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index saw a net outflow of 34.314 billion, while the Shenzhen Composite Index had a net outflow of 1.775 billion[4] - The top three sectors for capital inflow were communication equipment, semiconductors, and agriculture, while industrial metals, minor metals, and software development saw the highest outflows[4] Economic Indicators - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reported that the electronic information manufacturing industry is expected to achieve a revenue of 17.4 trillion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 7.4%[5] - The profit margin for the electronic information manufacturing sector is projected to be 4.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous year[5]

Market Overview - On January 29, the three major indices showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.16% and the ChiNext Index falling by 0.57%[3] - The main sectors experiencing inflows included liquor, advertising, and software development, while semiconductor, consumer electronics, and components saw significant outflows[3] Industry Trends - The market is witnessing a shift from technology stocks to cyclical and consumer assets, with notable increases in sectors like food and beverage, real estate, and non-ferrous metals[1] - Precious metals are experiencing significant short-term price increases, driven by global geopolitical changes rather than solely by the decline of the US dollar index[2] Economic Indicators - The total cross-regional population flow during the 2026 Spring Festival is expected to reach 9.5 billion people, marking a historical high[6] - The National Development and Reform Commission anticipates a 5.3% year-on-year increase in railway passenger capacity during the Spring Festival[4] Fund Dynamics - As of December 2025, the total net asset value of public funds in China reached 37.71 trillion yuan, with a monthly increase of 695.75 billion yuan, marking a nine-month consecutive high[13]

Market Overview - On January 28, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.27%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.09%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.57%[3] - The total trading volume on January 28 was approximately 2.99 trillion CNY, an increase of about 70 billion CNY compared to the previous trading day[1] Sector Performance - Over half of the sectors experienced declines, with non-ferrous metals, chemicals, oil, and coal showing the most significant gains, while military, pharmaceuticals, home appliances, and media sectors faced the largest losses[1] - The market has shifted focus from technology to cyclical sectors, with the trend in cyclical commodities expanding from precious metals to non-ferrous and chemical sectors[1] Investment Trends - Main capital inflows on January 28 included 79.03 million CNY into the Shanghai market and 736 million CNY into the Shenzhen market, with industrial metals, semiconductors, and precious metals being the top sectors for inflows[3] - The report indicates that nearly 60% of surveyed foreign enterprises plan to increase investments in China, reflecting a positive outlook on the Chinese business environment[7] Economic Indicators - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the cumulative tax reductions and refunds exceeded 1 trillion CNY, supporting the growth of business entities[4] - By the end of 2025, the total installed power generation capacity in China is expected to reach 3.89 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 16.1%[9] ETF Market Activity - The total trading volume of ETFs reached a historical high of 762.83 billion CNY, with stock ETFs accounting for 351.6 billion CNY and bond ETFs for 276.98 billion CNY[12] - The first ETF with a market cap exceeding 100 billion CNY focused on Hong Kong stocks has been launched, indicating a significant interest in this market segment[11]

Market Overview - On January 27, the market rebounded slightly with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.18%, the Shenzhen Component by 0.09%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.71%[3] - The total trading volume on January 27 was 2.92 trillion, a decrease of approximately 360 billion from the previous trading day[1] Sector Performance - The semiconductor, communication equipment, and aerospace sectors saw significant inflows, while the battery, securities, and power grid sectors experienced outflows[3] - High-tech manufacturing profits grew by 13.3% in 2025, surpassing the overall industrial profit growth of 0.6%[4][6] Profit Growth - The profit of the high-tech manufacturing sector was driven by smart electronics, which saw a 48% increase, and the semiconductor industry, which experienced profit growth of 172.6%[4] - The automotive industry reported a profit of 461 billion, reflecting a 0.6% increase year-on-year, with a profit margin of 4.1%[9] Fund Dynamics - The total income of the three social insurance funds reached 9.1 trillion, with a cumulative surplus of 10.2 trillion by the end of 2025[11] - The ETF trading volume reached 538.9 billion, with stock ETFs accounting for 244.7 billion and bond ETFs for 187.2 billion[12] Employment and Policy - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security announced measures to support employment in key industries affected by artificial intelligence[7] - New guidelines were issued to enhance safety equipment in industrial sectors, focusing on the elimination of outdated technologies[8]

Market Overview - On January 26, the market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.85%, and the ChiNext Index decreasing by 0.91%[4] - The total trading volume on January 26 was 3.28 trillion, an increase of approximately 160 billion compared to the previous trading day[1] Sector Performance - Over half of the sectors saw declines, with non-ferrous metals, coal, and oil sectors leading in gains, while military, automotive, electronics, and social services sectors faced the largest declines[1] - The semiconductor and aerospace sectors, which had previously seen significant gains, experienced notable declines, indicating a rare phenomenon of widespread losses in technology sectors since the beginning of the year[1][2] Regulatory Impact - The primary reason for the market adjustment is attributed to regulatory measures aimed at cooling down the market, particularly following rapid increases in sectors like commercial aerospace[2] - Significant sell orders were observed in large-cap stocks, reflecting the regulatory intent to maintain market stability[2] Fundraising and Investment Trends - In the last week of January, 43 new funds were launched, with equity funds remaining the dominant category, indicating strong investor interest in the market[12] - Since the beginning of the year, 76 new funds have been established, raising a total of 71.94 billion, with an average fund size of 9.47 billion[13] Consumer Trends - In 2025, household appliances, mobile phones, and new energy vehicles showed significant growth, with sales of household appliances increasing by 17.4%, mobile phones by 18.6%, and new energy vehicles by 24.3%[7] - The elderly care services sector also saw substantial growth, with spending on elderly care and nursing home services increasing by 24.9% and 15.4%, respectively[11]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.33%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.79%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.63% on January 23, 2026, with over 3,700 stocks rising in total [4][5] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 3.1 trillion yuan, indicating a recovery in market confidence [4] Industry Focus - The commercial aerospace sector is entering a golden era driven by both demand and supply, with significant investment opportunities in satellite manufacturing and launching [1] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the goal of building a strong aerospace nation, marking a strategic focus for the upcoming years [1] Fund Dynamics - Public fund management scale increased by over 1.3 trillion yuan in Q4 2025, with money market funds, bond funds, commodity funds, and index funds being the main growth drivers [13] - Headline private equity firms are increasing their positions, with stock private equity positions exceeding 81% as of January 9, 2026, indicating a bullish outlook for structural opportunities in 2026 [14] Industry Developments - The "Jiuquan Commercial Aerospace Industry Development Plan (2026-2035)" has been officially released, aiming to establish a national commercial aerospace launch base [10] - China has successfully completed its first space metal 3D printing experiment, showcasing advancements in additive manufacturing technology in microgravity environments [11] - The launch of six major platforms in Beijing's commercial aerospace sector aims to accelerate the development of a comprehensive "thousand stars production and launch" capability [12]