[Table_Title] 证券研究报告 /金融工程研究报告 多资产相关性研究 ---量化资产配置系列之二 报告摘要： 在资产配置研究中，多资产收益间的相关性是控制组合波动的关键，股 票和债券作为两大核心资产，其收益之间的关联性一直都是研究的重点。 本文将从股债相关性切入，搭建适合衡量动态相关性的模型，将其运用 于调整多资产收益协方差矩阵，实现量化资产配置策略的优化。 股票和债券回报之间的相关性对资产配置和风险管理策略实施有着直接 影响，同时一定程度上对应市场环境的变化。在股债相关性预期较高的 时期，投资者可以减少股票和债券之间的对冲效果，适当调整资产权重， 以降低组合风险。相反，如果预期相关性较低，可以增加债券的配置比 例，利用债券的避险属性。 滚动取过去一段窗口期的收益序列，直接计算相关性（RWC），是估计股 债相关性最简单的方式，但弊端也很明显：1）不能充分地体现相关性在 时间序列上的变化，对新信息的反应较为滞后；2）异常的收益数据会导 致估计值出现跳跃式变化，不利于进行趋势分析。 DCC 模型能更好的捕捉相关性的动态变化。作为短期波动的估计， DCC_CORR 日频序列噪音相对较少，受异常值影响小，且 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company 361 Degrees [4][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue increase of 19.6% year-on-year to 10.07 billion yuan and a net profit increase of 19.5% to 1.15 billion yuan for the year 2024 [1][3]. - The company continues to outperform the industry in terminal performance, with significant growth in adult footwear and apparel, as well as children's clothing [1][2]. - The company has successfully upgraded its store image and introduced a new super product store format, enhancing its brand presence [2][3]. - The company's gross margin improved by 0.4 percentage points to 41.5%, attributed to effective cost control and pricing strategies [2][3]. - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 13.8%, 11.1%, and 10.1% in the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profit growth of 15.2%, 11.2%, and 10.4% [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company reported total revenue of 10.07 billion yuan, a 19.6% increase from the previous year, and a net profit of 1.15 billion yuan, also up by 19.5% [1][3]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.265 HKD per share, with a payout ratio of 45% [1]. Operational Highlights - The company added 16 adult stores, bringing the total to 5,750, with an average store size increase of 11 square meters [2]. - E-commerce revenue grew by 12.2% to 2.61 billion yuan, accounting for 25.9% of total revenue [2]. Future Projections - The company forecasts revenue of 11.47 billion yuan in 2025, 12.74 billion yuan in 2026, and 14.03 billion yuan in 2027, with net profits projected at 1.32 billion yuan, 1.47 billion yuan, and 1.62 billion yuan respectively [3][4].

[Table_Info1] 证券研究报告 [Table_Date] 发布时间：2025-03-13 东盟专题系列 1——东盟十国经济概述 ---东北固收专题报告 报告摘要： [Table_Summary] 东盟在地理区位上离中国并不遥远，但人们对它的认知似乎依然是不 足够的。例如，东盟为何会作为一个政治单元而出现？其与欧盟、阿 盟等区域性组织的区别主要体现在什么方面？在面临地区内部的团结 与分离等问题时，为什么东盟可以有比南方共同市场、南非发展共同 体等其他南方国家地区组织更加良好的表现？这些问题值得深思，但 都没有固定的答案。 东盟的批评者常常诟病其为"清谈馆"，即"说的比做的多、很少采 取集体行动、缺乏约束力"，但似乎正是因为各国之间采取"不干涉 内政、不参与成员国未解决的双边冲突、安静外交与相互尊重容忍" 以及"以协商和共识取代基于多数原则的投票模式"等相处方式，才 得以有可能使这十个并没有太多共性的经济体，被绑定在一起、并且 和平共处超过 56 年——实际上，东盟是极少数自成立以来就没有发生 过正式武装冲突的地区组织，称得上是"和平奇迹"。 站在区域研究的角度，我们对东盟的理解总是习惯于从经济和贸易的 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in the aerial work platform rental industry, with significant growth potential in overseas markets, which is expected to contribute to performance increments [3]. - The company is shifting its focus towards non-asset-driven businesses, which are growing rapidly and are projected to account for 60.1% of revenue by 2024, up 13.58 percentage points year-on-year [1][2]. - Despite a decline in net profit by 6.87% year-on-year, the company is expected to achieve stable revenue growth of 20.50% in 2024, reaching 11.581 billion yuan [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 11.581 billion yuan, a 20.50% increase from the previous year, while net profit is expected to be 896.32 million yuan, a decrease of 6.87% [4]. - The gross margin for 2024 is estimated at 32.59%, down 16.73% year-on-year, with the rental service segment showing a gross margin of 38.15% [2]. - Operating cash flow is expected to increase to 4.204 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a positive cash flow trend [2]. Business Segments - The company’s revenue from operating leasing services is projected to decline by 10.08% to 4.621 billion yuan, while engineering technical services and asset management are expected to grow by 26.54% and 112.96%, respectively [1]. - The company has expanded its overseas operations, entering seven countries, and expects overseas revenue to reach 389 million yuan in 2024, a staggering growth of 2765.7% [3]. Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 11.928 billion yuan, 13.718 billion yuan, and 15.775 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 921 million yuan, 1.062 billion yuan, and 1.218 billion yuan [4][3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.29 yuan, 0.33 yuan, and 0.38 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios decreasing to 3.87, 3.35, and 2.92 [4][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience significant growth in its cloud computing business as the application of large models increases. It has launched a series of cloud computing products, including the high-performance Tianwen Intelligent Computing Cloud Platform and DeepSeek Security Integrated Machine [1]. - The DeepSeek Security Integrated Machine integrates computing, networking, and storage into a cloud resource pool, supporting the full process of AI model deployment and training, thereby lowering the technical barriers for customers [1]. - The company has been recognized by Gartner as a representative vendor in the hyper-converged space in China, leveraging its 30 years of experience in network security to create a cloud platform that integrates security and cloud computing [2]. Financial Summary - The company's projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated to be 72 million, 187 million, and 243 million yuan, respectively [3]. - The financial summary indicates a decline in revenue from 3,543 million yuan in 2022 to an estimated 2,812 million yuan in 2024, followed by a recovery to 3,121 million yuan in 2025 and 3,434 million yuan in 2026 [4]. - The report highlights a significant net profit decline in 2023, with a projected loss of 371 million yuan, but anticipates a turnaround in subsequent years [4].

[Table_Info1] [Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 港股公司报告 风险提示：消费不及预期，专柜扩张不达预期，新品表现未及预期，业 绩预测和估值判断不达预期。 | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 1829.11 | 2885.96 | 4034.52 | 5351.31 | 6855.97 | | (+/-)% | 15.96% | 57.78% | 39.80% | 32.64% | 28.12% | | 归属母公司净利润 | 352.08 | 661.93 | 876.47 | 1166.00 | 1487.50 | | (+/-)% | 6.36% | 88.00% | 32.41% | 33.03% | 27.57% | | 每股收益（元） | -- | -- | 1.79 | 2.38 | 3.03 | | 市盈率 | -- | -- | 47.36 | 35.60 | 27.91 | ...

[Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 公司点评报告 拟收购韩国 REGEN，推动管线完善及国际化布局 事件： [公司全资子公司爱美客香港与 Table_Summary] 首瑞香港共同设立爱美客国际，爱美客香 港持股 70%，首瑞香港持股 30%。爱美客国际拟以 1.90 亿美元收购 "韩国 REGEN Biotech"85%的股权，其中爱美客香港出资 1.33 亿美 元，首瑞香港出资 0.57 亿美元。交割条件包括 REGEN 原州新工厂获 得 GMP 认证，以及根据买方要求完成相关经销协议的修订。并购完成 后爱美客国际将成为 REGEN 的控股股东，爱美客则间接持有 REGEN 的 59.5%股权。 点评： REGEN 产品获市场广泛认可，产能释放后业绩将明显提升。 1）产品：两款聚乳酸产品分别用于面部和身体，已得到海外市场长期 验证。REGEN 已获批上市产品主要有 AestheFill 和 PowerFill，主要成 分均为 PDLLA 微球和羧甲基纤维素钠，其中：1、AestheFill 主要应用 于面部，已获得 34 个国家和地区的注册批准，中国大陆则由江苏吴中 独家代理至 2032 年；2 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock over the next six months [5]. Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in sales despite short-term profit pressure, with a revenue increase of 0.93% year-on-year to 2.808 billion yuan in 2024, while net profit decreased by 27.72% to 268 million yuan [2][3]. - The company is actively expanding its production capacity with the ongoing construction of a 1 million-ton corn deep processing project, which is expected to enhance its long-term growth potential [4]. - A planned acquisition of Henan Yuxin Sorbitol Co., a leading player in the functional sugar alcohol industry, is anticipated to reshape the market landscape and improve the company's competitive position [4]. Financial Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.808 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.93% compared to the previous year. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 268 million yuan, reflecting a significant decline of 27.72% [2][6]. - The company forecasts net profits of 380 million yuan, 473 million yuan, and 573 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating a recovery trend with corresponding EPS of 1.24, 1.55, and 1.87 yuan [5][6]. - The projected PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 12.09, 9.71, and 8.01 times, respectively, suggesting an attractive valuation as the company’s growth potential is gradually realized [5][6].

Group 1 - The report highlights the explosive growth of the DeepSeek and robotics themes since the Spring Festival, driven by significant events such as the participation of DeepSeek's CEO in a government meeting and the performance of YuTree Robotics during the Spring Festival Gala [1][10]. - From a valuation perspective, the report notes that since the rebound on September 24, the valuation of the Sci-Tech 50 index has consistently been higher than that of DeepSeek and YuTree Robotics, but the robotics concept has gained momentum since the New Year, surpassing the Sci-Tech 50 [1][10]. - The report indicates that while DeepSeek has shown significant price increases, its price-to-earnings (PE) ratio remains volatile at around 60X [1][10]. Group 2 - The report states that AIGC (Artificial Intelligence Generated Content) has shown higher elasticity compared to robotics, with AIGC outperforming in both maximum and interval price increases [2][13]. - It is noted that AIGC's overall valuation is generally higher than that of robotics, primarily due to AIGC's focus on TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), while robotics leans more towards mechanical hardware [2][13]. - The report emphasizes that despite AIGC's higher elasticity, its overall variance is significantly greater than that of robotics, indicating a mix of quality within AI-related concepts [2][14]. Group 3 - The report outlines three phases of the ChatGPT market in 2023, with the first phase characterized by foreign capital inflows and a strong performance of ChatGPT concepts, the second phase seeing a shift towards hardware and domestic models following the release of GPT-4.0, and the third phase marked by a surge in domestic large models [3][20]. - It suggests that after experiencing a broad rally driven by DeepSeek, a second wave of differentiated market performance is expected post the National People's Congress [3][20]. Group 4 - The report identifies capital expenditure as a key driver for the long-term trend of DeepSeek, noting that the ChatGPT market has not been smooth, with significant fluctuations but a general trend towards recovery as performance expectations are gradually met [4][20]. - It highlights that AI+ has already gone through a broad rally led by DeepSeek, and anticipates a second round of market activity driven by substantial capital expenditures from major internet companies like Alibaba [4][21]. Group 5 - The report indicates that the spring market dynamics are weakening, with a shift in focus from small-cap to large-cap stocks, particularly in sectors that previously underperformed, such as military, satellite, and new energy [4][24]. - It emphasizes that the Sci-Tech sector remains a long-term investment avenue, with a focus on self-controlled AI+ technologies, including robotics, intelligent driving, cloud computing, and computing power [4][24].

Group 1 - The core policy tone remains "seeking progress while maintaining stability," emphasizing economic adjustment and structural reform since 2012, with a focus on innovation and proactive measures in 2024 [1][9][10] - The 2024 Two Sessions will highlight the need for proactive measures in economic development, particularly in transforming and upgrading industries while maintaining stability [1][10] - The 2025 economic development goals include maintaining stable growth, employment, and overall price stability, while promoting income growth in sync with economic growth [2][14] Group 2 - Short-term work priorities include boosting consumption, stabilizing foreign investment, and adjusting industrial structure, which align with the tasks outlined in the Central Economic Work Conference [2][13] - The importance of technology industries, particularly AI, is emphasized as a means to enhance productivity and drive economic growth [2][14] - The report indicates a shift from government-led investment to foreign and private investments, highlighting the need for structural adjustments in industries to address mismatches in supply and demand [2][14] Group 3 - The report outlines specific measures to boost consumption, such as supporting income growth and enhancing service consumption, which are crucial for expanding domestic demand [15] - It emphasizes the need for structural adjustments in key industries to resolve existing contradictions and promote healthy development [15] - The report suggests that foreign investment plays a significant role in job creation and industrial upgrading, advocating for more practical measures to stabilize and increase foreign investment [15]