[Table_Info1] 有色金属 [Table_Date] 发布时间：2025-05-12 $$i k\neq\pm i k$$ 上次评级:优于大势 [Table_PicQuote] 历史收益率曲线 [Table_Trend] 涨跌幅（%） 1M 3M 12M 绝对收益 8% 1% -2% 相对收益 4% 2% -7% [Table_Market] 行业数据 成分股数量（只） 136 总市值（亿） 24568 流通市值（亿） 13349 市盈率（倍） 14.56 市净率（倍） 2.13 成分股总营收（亿） 31776 成分股总净利润（亿） 1882 成分股资产负债率（%） 50.80 [Table_Report] 相关报告 《黄金：情绪缓和，现实恶化，继续看多金价》 --20250506 《黄金：牛市未尽》 --20250428 《黄金：新世界秩序下的宠儿》 --20250421 《东北有色周报：关税反复+财政担忧+联储观 望，金价继续冲高》 --20250414 [Table_Author] 证券分析师：曾智勤 执业证书编号：S0550520110002 021-20363251 zengzq@nesc ...

[Table_Info1] 国防军工 [Table_Date] 发布时间：2025-05-11 $$\psi\to\pm\psi$$ 上次评级:优于大势 [Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 行业深度报告 ——军工 AI 行业深度报告 报告摘要： [Table_Summary] AI 重塑未来战争，全球军事智能化趋势凸显。俄乌冲突被《时代周刊》 定义为"人工智能实战元年"，其显著特征是 AI 系统对战场态势的实时解 析能力——以 Palantir 为代表的数据分析平台将情报处理周期从数月压 缩至分钟级，这种技术代差直接改写了传统战争的胜负逻辑。值得注意 的是，中国 DeepSeek 等新兴 AI 力量通过算法创新正打破技术垄断，其 低成本、高效率的军事应用场景开发，已对全球军事技术格局形成冲击。 AI 技术的军事化应用已成为全球大国战略博弈的核心领域。各国围绕算 法优势、装备智能化、作战形态创新展开激烈竞争，推动军工体系向数 据驱动和自主决策方向加速重构。美军将人工智能视为推动"第三次抵 消战略"的核心驱动力和赢得大国高端战争的关键，推出"联合战争概 念"以指导智能化战争能力开发。我国发布新修订的《军 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertible bond market rose following the equity market this week. The convertible bonds of industries such as national defense and military industry, household appliances, machinery and equipment, automobiles, and power equipment led the gains, with increases of 2.66%, 1.99%, 1.91%, 1.74%, and 1.62% respectively. Only the media sector declined, with a drop of -0.7%. The median absolute price of convertible bonds this week was 120.6. In the stock market, all sectors rose, with the national defense and military industry, communication, power equipment, and banking industries leading the gains, with increases of 6.33%, 4.96%, 4.02%, and 3.88% respectively [1][26]. - The conversion premium rate of 100 - yuan par value convertible bonds fell to 23.86% this week. Looking at the conversion premium rates by par - value intervals, the average conversion premium rates of convertible bonds in the par - value intervals of 40 - 50, 90 - 100, and over 130 decreased, while the average conversion premium rates of convertible bonds in the remaining par - value intervals increased [1][29]. - The yields of all classic convertible bond strategies were positive this week. The yield of the stock - biased strategy was 2.72%, the yield of the bond - biased strategy was 1.06%, the yield of the balanced strategy was 1.32%, the yield of the low - price strategy was 1.31%, and the yield of the double - low strategy was 1.94% [2][33]. - In terms of convertible bonds entering special periods, Hebang Convertible Bonds and Baolong Convertible Bonds entered the conversion and redemption periods; no convertible bonds announced redemption or non - redemption; Fengyu Convertible Bonds, Wanshun Convertible Bonds 2, and Shouhua Convertible Bonds announced formal downward revisions; Ruifeng Convertible Bonds, Dongcai Convertible Bonds, Lingkang Convertible Bonds, Jiuqiang Convertible Bonds, Shunbo Convertible Bonds, Shenghong Convertible Bonds, Lanfan Convertible Bonds, Qifan Convertible Bonds, Shengxun Convertible Bonds, and Yuxing Convertible Bonds announced non - downward revisions [2][39][42]. - No convertible bonds were announced for issuance this week. Eight listed companies announced the progress of convertible bond issuance, with a planned issuance scale of 7.372 billion yuan. Seven of them adopted a combined issuance method of priority placement, online pricing, and offline placement, and one was a private placement. Two passed the board of directors' proposals, five passed the general meetings of shareholders, and one was approved for registration [3][46]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 1. This Week's Secondary Market Performance 1.1 This Week's Performance of Convertible Bond/Stock Market Indexes - The CSI Convertible Bond Index closed at 427.47, with a weekly increase of 1.32% and a weekly trading volume of 242.319 billion yuan; the Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index closed at 376.36, with a weekly increase of 1.31% and a weekly trading volume of 94.108 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index closed at 306.83, with a weekly increase of 1.32% and a weekly trading volume of 155.172 billion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,342.00, with a weekly increase of 1.92% and a weekly trading volume of 2,113.529 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10,126.83, with a weekly increase of 2.29% and a weekly trading volume of 3,176.346 billion yuan; the ChiNext Index closed at 2,011.77, with a weekly increase of 3.27% and a weekly trading volume of 1,489.326 billion yuan [13]. - The top three convertible bonds in terms of increase this week were Haomei Convertible Bonds (18.20%), Huaxiang Convertible Bonds (13.17%), and Outong Convertible Bonds (12.59%); the top three convertible bonds in terms of decrease were Fuxin Convertible Bonds (-1.93%), Shengxun Convertible Bonds (-1.95%), and Rundong Convertible Bonds (-2.14%) [13]. 1.2 This Week's Performance of Convertible Bond/Stock Market Industries - In the convertible bond market, the convertible bonds of industries such as national defense and military industry, household appliances, machinery and equipment, automobiles, and power equipment led the gains, with increases of 2.66%, 1.99%, 1.91%, 1.74%, and 1.62% respectively; only the media sector declined, with a drop of -0.7%. In the stock market, all sectors rose, with the national defense and military industry, communication, power equipment, and banking industries leading the gains, with increases of 6.33%, 4.96%, 4.02%, and 3.88% respectively [1][26]. - The conversion premium rate of 100 - yuan par value convertible bonds fell to 23.86% this week. Looking at the conversion premium rates by par - value intervals, the average conversion premium rates of convertible bonds in the par - value intervals of 40 - 50, 90 - 100, and over 130 decreased, while the average conversion premium rates of convertible bonds in the remaining par - value intervals increased [1][29]. 1.3 Performance of Classic Convertible Bond Strategies The yields of all classic convertible bond strategies were positive this week. The yield of the stock - biased strategy was 2.72%, the yield of the bond - biased strategy was 1.06%, the yield of the balanced strategy was 1.32%, the yield of the low - price strategy was 1.31%, and the yield of the double - low strategy was 1.94% [2][33]. 1.4 Performance of the Dynamic Pool of Convertible Bond Targets This Week The report provided the weekly performance, April performance, convertible bond prices, conversion values, and industries of 10 convertible bond targets such as Zhongte Convertible Bonds, Shanlu Convertible Bonds, and Heshun Convertible Bonds [38]. 1.5 Convertible Bonds Entering Special Periods This Week - Hebang Convertible Bonds and Baolong Convertible Bonds entered the conversion and redemption periods [39]. - No convertible bonds announced redemption or non - redemption [41]. - Fengyu Convertible Bonds, Wanshun Convertible Bonds 2, and Shouhua Convertible Bonds announced formal downward revisions [42]. - Ruifeng Convertible Bonds, Dongcai Convertible Bonds, Lingkang Convertible Bonds, Jiuqiang Convertible Bonds, Shunbo Convertible Bonds, Shenghong Convertible Bonds, Lanfan Convertible Bonds, Qifan Convertible Bonds, Shengxun Convertible Bonds, and Yuxing Convertible Bonds announced non - downward revisions [42][44]. 2. This Week's Convertible Bond Primary Market Situation 2.1 Convertible Bonds Announced for Issuance This Week No convertible bonds were announced for issuance this week [45]. 2.2 Progress of Convertible Bond Issuance Proposals Announced This Week Eight listed companies announced the progress of convertible bond issuance, with a planned issuance scale of 7.372 billion yuan. Seven of them adopted a combined issuance method of priority placement, online pricing, and offline placement, and one was a private placement. Two passed the board of directors' proposals, five passed the general meetings of shareholders, and one was approved for registration [46].

[Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 策略专题报告 再论红利的必要性和终点 市场周观察 05 月第 2 期 报告摘要： [Table_Summary] 红利持续缩圈，TOP4 均为银行。我们梳理目前的红利方向：（1）考虑 业绩波动对于分红的影响，连续多个季度 EPS 保持稳定，或者存在向上 的预期；（2）考虑股价对于股息率的影响，筛选＞2%的方向，相对 10Y 国债收益率仍具有绝对性价比。目前筛选的方向中：TOP4 均为银行的二 级行业，国有大型银行、农商行、城商行、股份制银行；以及消费白马， 厨卫电器、白酒、白色家电；此外，交运物流保持在 3%左右的股息；而 此前明显强势的煤炭已经不在此列。 高实际利率偏好于稳定性资产。（1）传统观点认为红利占优在于无风险 利率的下行，因此拥有类债属性的红利风格凭借更高的股息率走强。但 从历史规律看，2020 年以前，国内无风险利率更多与中证红利/万得全 A 的收益同向变动；但在 2022 年后，红利股走强的逻辑并不能够用无风险 利率波动简单解释，红利风格的定价模式似乎出现变化。（2）如果我们 考虑实际利率对于资产价格的影响，我们引入了无风险利率-PPI 来指代 实 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company has a leading position in the refractory materials industry, with significant growth potential in its active magnesium oxide business for wet metallurgy [3][15] - The company is expected to see a recovery in profitability from its domestic refractory business in 2025, driven by improved competition dynamics and raw material price stabilization [2][3] Company Overview - Established in 2002 and listed in 2008, the company has over 30 years of experience in high-temperature industrial products and solutions [15] - The company has expanded internationally since 2000, with production bases in the USA and Serbia, and a strong brand presence [15][16] - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 5.19 billion yuan and a net profit of 140 million yuan [1] Industry Overview - The refractory materials industry in China is under pressure, with a projected production of 22.07 million tons in 2024, down 4% year-on-year, primarily due to the downturn in the steel industry [2][54] - The steel industry is the main downstream market for refractory materials, accounting for approximately 70% of demand [58] Domestic Refractory Business - The competitive landscape is expected to improve due to rising concentration in the steel industry and enhanced environmental standards [2][79] - The company’s revenue from overall contracting services in 2024 is expected to account for 49% of total revenue [79] Overseas Refractory Business - The company is positioned to benefit from its overseas operations, with 28% of revenue coming from international markets in 2024 [2][16] - The company has established a direct sales network overseas, making it the first domestic refractory materials company to do so [16] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenue growth from 5.61 billion yuan in 2025 to 6.37 billion yuan in 2027, with net profit expected to rise from 299 million yuan to 498 million yuan over the same period [4] - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 18, 14, and 11, respectively [3] Raw Material Prices - The price of alumina is expected to decline in 2025, while magnesium sand prices may stabilize or increase [2][3][72]

盈利预测：欧洲去库接近尾声，亚非拉市场持续爆发。我们预计公司 2025-2027 年的营业收入分别为 148.4/ 187.3/ 236.0 亿元，2025-2027 年 归母净利润分别为 36.4/ 45.8/ 54.7 亿元，对应 15.63/ 12.41/ 10.40 倍 PE，给予 2025E 的每股净利润 19 倍 PE 估值，对应目标价 107 元，首 次覆盖，给予"买入"评级。 风险提示：储能业务进展不及预期；盈利预测与估值模型不及预期 [Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 公司点评报告 新产品+新市场双重赋能，高增长有望持续 事件： [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2024 年年报，德业股份 2024 年实现营业收入 112.06 亿元， 同比+49.83%，实现归母净利润 29.6 亿元，同比+65.29%，基本符合市 场此前预期。 新兴市场助力储能高增长。（1）德业股份 2024 年逆变器业务实现营业 收入 55.6 亿元，同比+25.44%，2024 年公司储能逆变器出货 54.06 万 台，组串式逆变器出货 41.06 万台，微型逆变器 42.03 万台。逆变器 业务 ...

[Table_Info1] 长源东谷(603950) 汽车 [Table_Date] 发布时间：2025-05-08 [Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 公司点评报告 请务必阅读正文后的声明及说明 传统业务稳健深耕，新能源业务蓬勃发展 事件： [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2024 年年报和 2025 年一季度报告。2024 年公司实现营业收 入 19.20 亿元，同比+30.38%，实现归属于母公司净利润 2.30 亿元，同 比+5.37%。2025 年 Q1 公司实现营业收入 5.01 亿，同比+20.52％，实 现归母净利润 0.78 亿，同比+65.80％。 点评： 双轨驱动核心零部件业务，智能升级与新能源拓展创营收新高。2024 年，公司在传统商用车领域拓展工程机械、船用等新客户，同时新能源 混动缸体缸盖销量大幅增长至 54.5 万套，并通过智能工厂升级、成本 优化等措施实现营收历史新高，推进传统能源与新能源业务并行发展。 新能源爆发驱动增长，双轨战略稳步拓展市场。2024 年公司营收同比 增长 30.38%，达 19.2 亿元，创历史新高。增长主因是新能源混动业务 的爆发，比 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.912 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 13.98%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -85 million yuan, indicating a loss compared to the previous year [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 933 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.58%, with a net profit of -25 million yuan, showing a significant reduction in losses [1]. - The company is expected to see a recovery in performance driven by improved market conditions in the aquaculture sector, which is anticipated to boost feed demand [3]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In 2024, the company faced a decline in feed sales volume to 787,100 tons, down 9.6% year-on-year due to a sluggish market and adverse weather conditions [2]. - The company has successfully launched new products, with certain feed types like tilapia feed and sea bass feed experiencing growth rates of 15%-40% [2]. - In Q1 2025, feed sales volume reached 117,400 tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 12.2% [2]. Financial Management - The company has strengthened its accounts receivable management, leading to a significant reduction in bad debt provisions, which decreased by 87.85% year-on-year in Q1 2025 [3]. - The report forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 250 million, 330 million, and 430 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.4, 0.5, and 0.6 yuan [3]. Market Outlook - The report highlights that the recovery in aquaculture prices since early 2025 is expected to enhance the willingness of farmers to invest in seedlings, further driving feed demand [2]. - The company is actively pursuing growth strategies, including the development of new bases in Vietnam and Anhui, as well as mergers and acquisitions, which are expected to contribute to its long-term growth potential [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% within the next six months [4]. Core Insights - The company achieved record high performance in Q1 2025, with revenue of 2.20 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.97%, and a net profit of 0.71 billion yuan, up 15.82% year-on-year [1]. - The sales volume of nucleating agents increased by 26.53% in 2024, contributing to the company's historical high performance across various metrics [1]. - The domestic substitution process for nucleating agents is expected to accelerate due to tariff countermeasures, with the import substitution rate projected to rise from 30% in 2023 to 34% in 2025 [1]. Financial Summary - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 8.82 billion yuan, a 10.31% increase from the previous year, and a net profit of 2.50 billion yuan, reflecting a 10.68% growth [3]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.10 billion yuan, 3.74 billion yuan, and 4.15 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21.83X, 18.09X, and 16.29X [2][3]. - The company's design capacity for nucleating agents reached 25,760 tons by the end of 2024, with significant production capacity expansions planned [1]. Acquisition Plans - The company plans to acquire at least 51% of Yingri Technology, which specializes in high-performance sputtering targets, aiming for synergies in customer resources and brand influence [2].

证券研究报告 5、短期利率可能有一些交易盘止盈的影响，但是大方向上积极看多仍然 逻辑顺畅，回调后采用久期策略积极左侧布局仍然可为。基本面在看到 冲击回落过后的趋势性好转之前仍然没必要对债市过分看空。中美谈判 短期对黄金有情绪扰动，但央行购金逻辑仍然有较强支撑，近期黄金的 阶段性回调不是趋势反转，反而可能提供了一个倒车接人的机会。 大类资产隐含的经济增长预期 相关报告 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 19/01 19/04 19/07 19/10 20/01 20/04 20/07 20/10 21/01 21/04 21/07 21/10 22/01 22/04 22/07 22/10 23/01 23/04 23/07 23/10 24/01 24/04 24/07 24/10 25/01 25/04 股债汇商大类资产隐含的经济增长预期 证券研究报告 / 债券研究报告 双降落地后，债市怎么看？ ——2025 年 5 月 7 日国新办新闻发布会点评 2025 年 5 月 7 日，国新办举行新闻发布会，请中国人民银行行长潘功 胜、金融监管总局局长李云泽、中国证监会主席吴清介绍"一揽子金融 ...